David Gettis as the Panthers "X-Factor" in 2011
by James Dator on May 16, 2011 3:48 PM EDT
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Outside of the Carolinas there's no reason people should know the name David Gettis, at least not yet. The 2010 6th round pick proved to be the most pleasant surprise of a miserable season as he steadily improved from being a player who we considered only having a decent chance at making the opening week roster, to slowly cementing himself as a starter and now as a player some see as having the potential to be a future #1 receiver.
There's a lot to like with Gettis. He possesses a big 6'3" frame, but has a natural ability to use every bit of that size to his advantage looking like a larger target than he is. Gettis also has a long gait which makes his route running almost Randy Moss-like (even though he needs to improve his cuts). Most astonishing though is what happens when you get inside the numbers... and when that happens you see a player who's about the break out in a big way, provided the quarterback play improves.
More after the jump...
There's no denying that Tampa Bay's Mike Williams had a marvelous rookie season. The convergence of Williams' natural ability and Freeman making a stride as a quarterback combined for a truly great combination. However, though Gettis may appear vastly behind him... he really wasn't as far as you might think.
Essentially what I'm doing here is taking the receiver's yards, dividing them by the entire team's passing yards then multiplying that by the receiver's touchdowns divided by the team's receiving touchdowns. Ultimately this should paint a picture of just how big an impact that player had for his team's passing game and account for mediocrity at the QB position.
For this we're going to look at the top 5 rookie WRs in receving yards; the aforementioned Mike Williams as well as Jordan Shipley, Dez Bryant, Jacoby Ford and finally David Gettis. Here is what we get:
- Mike Williams: 12.01 receiver rating
- Jordan Shipley: 1.82 receiver rating
- Dez Bryant: 2.84 receiver rating
- Jacoby Ford: 1.63 receiver rating
- David Gettis: 7.36 receiver rating
So what does this mean?
Well let's continue this analysis by focusing on the two clear cut winners- Williams and Gettis. Let's suppose for a second they changed teams and had a similar impact on the Bucs and Panthers respectively. Here's what happens:
- David Gettis (on the Bucs): 710 yards, 8 TD (Willams had 964 yards, 11 TD)
- Mike Williams (on the Panthers): 733 yards, 4 TD (Gettis had 508 yards, 3 TD)
So while Mike Williams is clearly the more productive receiver in both occasions, David Gettis is hardly mediocre when compared head to head with Williams. This notion that's been perpetuated that it was Mike Williams and then a huge gap to #2 wasn't really the case, analysts were just looking at the wrong team. Furthermore, consider that Mike Williams was a 16 game starter and Gettis started 13 games and even more interesting stuff ensues.
- David Gettis (on the Bucs, starting 16 games): 861 yards, 10 TD
- David Gettis (on the Panthers, starting 16 games): 611 yards, 4 TD
What do you think? Are you surprised that Gettis was a close to Williams in this way when they were broken down by team importance? What does the future hold for him?
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He proved to be a capable starting WR.
He surprised me in the fact that he is nearly a complete receiver, already.
It will be interesting to see what happens with Smith. If Smith stays, we will have two good options on the outside in Gettis and Lafell, and then Smith can finally play in the slot like he has desired for several years. With smith, Gettis should continue to develop and contribute. Without him, he may be the guy teams decide to double, or shade coverage to.
Not to turn this into another Smitty debate, but I think keeping him would be hugely beneficial to our four young WRs (Gettis, Lafell, Edwards and Pilares). We talk about having a veteran QB to show Cam the ropes, well these young guys have a solid veteran presence in Smith.
With the addition of the veteran WR coach Fred Graves and Panther favorite Ricky Proehl to the coaching staff, I think our WR corps could surprise some people this season.
They should also benefit from the added dimension that Cam brings to the offense. Surely opposing defenses will take a man out of coverage to spy Cam, or even take two out of coverage to keep contain. This should help our receivers get open.
Nihilists! F@ck me. I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
I'm a bit of a homer when it comes to our WR's
I can’t say that about any other positions, except maybe RB. But I really think Gettis, Lafell, and Pilares have long, effective careers ahead of them. We just still lack that star power without Smitty.
stay thirsty my friends
Ok, who hijacked ST’s account? This is way too positive to be him. :-)
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
LOL
Ok. It’s you.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
So Pilares makes the list and Armanti doesn't?
Sound logic there.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
Armanti is still an unknown quantity as we’ve literally seen no production at any level as a WR. At least with Pilares his conversion to WR was in time to give us two years of data on him as a receiver.
by James Dator on May 17, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, but to an extent everyone's slate is 'wiped clean' when it comes to the NFL.
More of a semantics thing, I guess. TIFWIW.
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
That's not true in this case
Armanti was a QB. You can’t just put him on the same level as a who’s already excelled at the position. Pilares’ slate is currently clean, but Armanti’s is a bit muddy from last year.
stay thirsty my friends
by southtunnel on May 17, 2011 2:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sure.
But by all accounts Armanti has gotten into terrific shape. I know that was perhaps his largest detraction last season.
If you don’t have your legs as a WR, you ain’t got nothing. I’m not ‘excusing’ Armanti, hell, as a professional its his job to be in shape. A year of learning “what it takes” is necessary for some guys.
I watch Armanti and I see football skills. I have not completely given up on him, as some have done (I’m not suggesting that you have or haven’t).
If he is given a fair shake this season, and he still underwhelms, then we have the right to chastise away.
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
There are multiple reasons it isn't fair for anyone to write him off after his rookie season
- Conversion from QB to WR being #1… that isn’t something you can really do very well in the first couple months of your career. I think he showed good promise in the preseason even after just a month or two of being a receiver. The transition is compounded by the fact that being a WR simply requires you to run a crap-ton more. It is hard to make that athletic jump so quickly, but I think we see that correction this year lockout or no lockout. Point being, he was drafted as a 3 year project. For anyone to expect great output in year 1 is madness.
- John Fox and his old school coaching staff didn’t really help any. No reps, even in a lost season, and there are plenty of suggestions that he just flat out didn’t want the guy and didn’t care enough about the future of the Panthers to play him. I would say this probably put him a half a year behind schedule, and is now being made worse by a lockout preventing him from training with his WR coach and his QBs.
- Speaking of lockout… depending on what we get in terms of a training camp, pre-season, etc. we may not even be able to see much of him this year. We may have to wait until that originally projected year 3 production. I expect strides, and I expect Rivera and Chudz to get him on the field in some capacity, but without time to practice and prepare formations for him, there simply will be other priorities that may keep him off the field and limit involvement. That goes for Pilares as well.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
Thank you!
I’m glad you see the logic in a converted QB, who had trouble returning punts, and never saw the field… Compared to a dynamic slot receiver, who though often overlooked, was among the top 5 WRs by some reports.
stay thirsty my friends
by southtunnel on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You're forgetting something
You can’t discount the added value of a capable arm on a WR if Edwards’ conversion to WR is successful. When comparing the two side-by-side going into 2011, Edwards still has higher upside attached to his higher bust potential than Pilares due to that one facet of his game.
a dynamic slot receiver, on a pass first team, in the WAC conference.
Sound familiar to most of the jabs against Armanti?
“A record-setting and dynamic QB, on a spread offense, from I-AA”
The point is, there is a HUGE jump between college and the NFL. Armanti’s jump is larger than Pilares’ jump for sure because he was a QB, but it is still a huge leap. He was drafted as a project, as any QB to WR conversion is. If he wasn’t, then Hurney really dropped the friggin ball. There certainly shouldn’t be judgement passed on his game yet.
I just don’t understand your logic that you can proclaim that Pilares will have a “long and effective career ahead of him” when he is a mid-round draft pick who has yet to even sniff an NFL practice field.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
So who do you think will have more receptions in 2011?
Pilares or Edwards? We should record a poll on some of this… Gettis vs LaFell, Pilares vs Armanti opinions.
stay thirsty my friends
Hmm? Very interesting.
I’m gonna say Pilares and Gettis. But it’ll be close.
Like: Gettis 49 catches, LaFell 38 catches, Pilares 33 catches and Edwards 24 catches.
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
Depends if Smitty is still around or not.
If Smitty is still around, I think Armanti gets more as the 4th receiver. If he is not, barring FA acquisitions, there may be a slot rotation between Pilares and Armanti.
However, I think there will be added value from Armanti contributing in other areas that may not necessarily be receptions. We have the guy who developed Josh Cribbs on hand now as our OC, there is nothing to suggest that he couldn’t develop Armanti the same way.
Point is, this is a clean slate for both Pilares and Armanti. New coaches, new offense, new everything for both. So I won’t rule out getting production from all 4 of our anticipated young WRs.
Now that I answered your question, answer mine. Why do you have such high praise for Pilares who has proved absolutely nothing at the NFL level?
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
I'll throw my own answer in here.
Because Armanti has also proven nothing at the NFL level and Pilares possesses a better slot receiver skillset.
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on May 17, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Finally you agree with me about something
Pilares was also very hugh on a couple scouting reports. Granted not many due to being relatively unknown. But it’s still a couple more than Armanti was.
stay thirsty my friends
by southtunnel on May 17, 2011 9:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You're steal way ahead of yourself predicting Pilares will have a long productive NFL career
At this point you’re guessing in the dark. Niether him or Armanti have proven anything at the NFL level yet. Pilares because he hasn’t even had a day of practice, and Armanti because he hasn’t had the time necessary to make his conversion.
LaFell and Gettis gave you a reason to be optimistic based on their NFL play last season. That I get. But if you’re going to leave off Armanti, you should also leave off Pilares until he shows something in the pros.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
Ok whatever
If your trying to prove to me my predictions aren’t 100% fact, then you’ve succeeded. Congrats, you’ve stated the obvious.
stay thirsty my friends
yeah, screw it
I don’t know why I waste my time trying to figure out why you hate Armanti, you just do.
I hate cheesecake, most everyone else likes it, i just don’t, and no amount of convincing will change my mind. Given the choice between quality cheesecake that all my friends think is delicious, and the layer cake that looks delicious but may or may not be better in their eyes, I will take the latter everytime and take my chances. Then when the cake is finished, only then will I provide my reaction. Because sometimes you can’t appreciate the flavor of such a thing on the first bite, you have to give it time for the flavors to mix together and create something special. If it still doesn’t taste good, well, I wasted a few bucks, but ultimately I have many more desserts ahead of me.
C’est la vie.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
I don't hate Armanti. It's not his fault Hurney over-valued him.
I hope he’ll capitalize on his opportunities. But the NFL is just not an easy place to learn a new position on the job.
stay thirsty my friends
Now I want cheesecake. Thanks tater.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
It was bound to happen eventually. ;)
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on May 18, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Not surprised at all
Watching every game last year, it was pretty awesome to watch Gettis progress throughout the season. I am definitely expecting big things out of both players next year.
Something that would be interesting to know… how many big plays did each have (receptions of 20+ yards)?
I think Gettis has a good head on his shoulders and a good work ethic. I really think we found a diamond in the rough here.
by Fernando De La Cruz on May 16, 2011 4:06 PM EDT reply actions
20 yard+ receptions as a % of each players entire receptions:
Mike Williams: 28%
Jordan Shipley: 13%
Dez Bryant: 18%
Jacoby Ford: 31.25%
David Gettis: 22%
Brandon LaFell: 11%
You want to talk about Diamond in the rough...
Mike Williams looks like the biggest steal of the draft. 4th rounder with 65 receptions, nearly 1000 yards, and 11 TDs!
stay thirsty my friends
For those interested... LaFell compares favorably also
His receiver rating is 2.26
While not great, the fact he was above Jacoby Ford and below Dez Bryant speaks volumes to his ability also
Just imagine what these guys are going to do when they have a real QB under center.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
What is Catch More Footballs, Alex.
by BusyBeingAwesome on May 16, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Correct BBA. It's now time for the Video Daily Double.
This animal is often compared to a highly-touted quarterback from Notre Dame, who failed miserably to match everyone’s expectations in 2010…
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
by BW Smith on May 16, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Who is Jimmy Clausen?
And my wager is $180,000.
by BusyBeingAwesome on May 16, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Oh....I'm sorry BBA.
We were looking for the name of the animal.
Wait, I’m being told by the research staff that Jimmy Clausen is now a synonym for ostrich, so we can accept your answer.
Your grand total for this round is currently tree fiddy.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
Precisely!
The happy moral of this story is that Gettis would have had a 861 yard, 10 TD season if we had Josh Freeman caliber QB play under center.
I suspect the Panthers realized this when they chose to pass on Leonard Hankerson in the draft.
You could be right.
And I hope you are.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
Freeman had a 95 QB rating last season.
If Cam can keep it at 85 (or above) this season we will win 7 or more games.
Nihilists! F@ck me. I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
Oh Hell yeah
But I’d be happy if it were in the mid-high 70’s, too. I think if he winds up with a 75 rating or so and shows steady improvement, I’d be happy.
by BusyBeingAwesome on May 16, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately they also passed on Mike Williams and Jacoby Ford
In favor of LaFell.
stay thirsty my friends
I really thought the Panthers might jump back up to get Golden Tate after they took Clausen.
Guess the LSU connections had something to do with LaFell being the pick.
Glad they didn't
Tate didn’t show much his rookie year, albeit he was on Seattle. But, for all the success the two had (Clausen, Tate) at least one of them HAD to be good right?
"If ya ain't first, you're last."
- Ricky Bobby's Dad
"There is no evidence that the tongue is connected to the brain." -Frank Tyger
by KaiserBromley on May 17, 2011 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, they both had a tough welcome into the league.
My feeling was they both would be helped by the reunion. Time will tell on whether either have significant success. At least Tate will be given more time to become productive in Seattle. I don’t think Clausen will be given another chance in Carolina with the drafting of Newton.
I was for drafting Dareus and giving Clausen one more chance, but I know I was in the minority. My thinking was after this season we would know if Clausen could turn it around like he did at Notre Dame. We would either have a solid QB or draft one next year when I liked the prospects better.
I guess this approach was too conservative for most. My most fervent hope is that the Panthers QB problems are behind them and all will be fine going forward. Time alone will tell.
The cards are stacked against Clausen for sure
With all the numbers and what-not people have run in comparison with league history, I don’t know if he can be successful. I remembered McShay talking about Clausen the year he was drafted and talking about how his deep ball wasn’t nearly as good as it appeared as he just threw it up for grabs and his receivers would just go up and make the play. And sure enough, he was right. But hmm, didn’t we have a QB that did that and had a modicum of success? Clausen probably should’ve tried to force feed Smitty.
"If ya ain't first, you're last."
- Ricky Bobby's Dad
"There is no evidence that the tongue is connected to the brain." -Frank Tyger
by KaiserBromley on May 17, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Gettis is an example of what Cam Newton was coming out of the draft, just at a different position
Both prospects were labeled as physically gifted but not having developed all the tools to be NFL starters. Or as seems to be the favorite term at the moment… “raw plutonium”
Gettis may have garnered more attention had it not been for playing at Baylor, which to me really should have elevated his value. He had a good QB at Baylor, but not a game breaker like some more highly touted WR prospects. Not to mention he was clearly option 1 on that receiving corps, and faced Big 12 level corners regularly (including Prince Amukamara).
I’m excited about all our young WRs personally. From the three we drafted last year down to our newcomer Pilares. With or without Smith, there is reason to believe that with better QB play, we are going to be set at WR.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
Yeah, if you looked you could see the promise was there.
I remember a chat with Darin Gantt last year before the preseason had ever begun. I opined that Gettis was going to be our Colston. He too saw that potential.
Like Deion Sanders would say.....HOLD ON PLAYA
I like Gettis as much as the next guy, but seriously anyone can devise a formula to gain a desired result. This is one of those occasions.
How so?
I’m honestly curious in what flaw you see with this methodology?
I don’t devise formulas to achieve results. I come up with something that’s fair… then run the numbers. I tried this formula this morning, found the result interesting then wrote an article to support it.
I can’t think of a better way to measure WR performance separate from QB performance other than form a metric that justifies just how much that receiver meant to the team in terms of touchdowns and yards… because that will be inversely effected by targets etc.
i think there is something to be said for the fact Gettis got what? 2 of his TDs in one game. one has to consider how he did against specific competition at CB, given that most of the coverage was on Steve Smith and likely LaFell. Then one thing I think you were quite remiss to address is how much of his performance was due to non-influenced errors on the part of the CB. You also have to account for Gettis’ many drops, which gives you an idea of how much a WR might have a hurt a team more than he actually helped it.
Here’s the fallacy in this process. A team’s receiving touchdowns is influenced by how potent their offense was. If you divide by a team’s receiving touchdowns, any team with a bad QB that throws about 10-15 TDs will ALWAYS have a higher WR rating than most of the good teams. It is simple math, if you have a smaller denominator, the final number will be bigger. Of course Mike Williams had a bigger “rating” but that’s because the amount of yards he threw was a big chunk of Josh Freeman’s relatively low numbers. The point I’m trying to make is, the WR’s rating is inflated ironically, by a mediocre QB’s numbers.
Case in Point: Antonio Gates and Chargers: 5.76
by Blahbla on May 16, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Regarding your first paragraph.
Every receiver capitalizes on errors by a CB. And against San Francisco, he was matched up against Nate Clements, San Francisco’s best CB. He did have a few issues with drops, but he’s a young player, he’ll improve.
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on May 16, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Then one thing I think you were quite remiss to address is how much of his performance was due to non-influenced errors on the part of the CB.
I’ll let Football Outsiders address this. They have a rating known as ‘DYAR’ or ‘Defense-adjusted yards above replacement’. This takes a player when they’re on the field and off the field and evaluates this player against the one who takes their place. This gives us a numeric example of how a player does when adjusted for the competition they face.
- Mike Williams: 65 DYAR rating
- David Gettis: 62 DYAR rating
This supports my assertion that Gettis is just behind Williams.
Here’s the fallacy in this process. A team’s receiving touchdowns is influenced by how potent their offense was. If you divide by a team’s receiving touchdowns, any team with a bad QB that throws about 10-15 TDs will ALWAYS have a higher WR rating than most of the good teams. It is simple math
There’s a problem in your ‘simple math’, namely that you failed to adjust for the fact Gates only played 10 games this year. When you adjust for his he has a receiver rating of 9.2.
If your assertion were true, then Benjamin Watson should have the highest TE rating then, right? I mean, Cleveland were 29th in the NFL in passing and Watson was 5th in receiving among TEs.
Benjamin Watson: 5.86 receiver rating… shouldn’t he be vastly above Gates? I mean Gates was in the #2 passing offense in the NFL.
The reason for this is simple: Bad passing teams allow for individual receivers to get a larger chunk of the yards, but they are brought down by a lack of touchdowns.
That’s the problem, the Browns bring Watson’s numbers down because they have don’t have that lack of TDs. The Browns threw 13TDs and thus Watson’s numbers were brought down, because once again, Watson had 3TDs and the denominator for his TD factor was 13. Had it been 9 or 8, Watson’s rating would have increased. All it says is this system rewards bad WRs in a bad offense.
I mean, even Andre Johnson is lower than Gettis. That’s absurd!
I don't think you're understanding the concept
Ultimately this should paint a picture of just how big an impact that player had for his team’s passing game and account for mediocrity at the QB position.
Also, you did the same thing again… Andre Johnson missed three games due to injury. Adjusted for games missed his receiver rating is 12.00, which makes him as valuable to the Texans as Mike Williams was to the Bucs
It’s not an attempt to say ‘David Gettis is better than Andre Johnson’ but rather, David Gettis meant almost as much to the Panthers as Williams did to Tampa.
by James Dator on May 16, 2011 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you saying Phillip River is a mediocre QB???
I don’t see that.. #89 sure wants to go take passes from him.. Freeman was not a bad QB last year..
James, rather than just looking at rookie WR’s, why not check some of the elite receivers of last year.. Maybe, Miles Austin, Moss?, Deshaun Jackson, and Roddy White..Maybe im missing a couple..D Bowe..
by Ryan439 on May 16, 2011 10:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
- Miles Austin: 6.19 (Witten was the most valuable receiver to the Cowboys in 2010)
- Randy Moss: This is almost impossible because he played for three teams and 2010 was one of his worst seasons. In 2009 his rating was 13.2
- DeSean Jackson: 6.60 (Jeremy Maclin was the most valuable receiver to the Eagles in 2010)
- Roddy White: 13.88
- Dwayne Bowe: 21.7 (I believe he had the highest receiver rating in the NFL due to his league leading 15 TDs)
by James Dator on May 17, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand the concept perfectly. But a receiver’s ability to stay healthy and START consistently should be taken into account in determining his impact. In addition, you are missing the fact that a WR that catches 2TDs in one game and 1 the rest of the season,that isn’t indicative of someone who meant much to a team. If you exclude the SF game, Gettis had all of 1 TD. Williams was consistent in his production.
In addition, how do you confidently conjecture Gettis’ production in TB. This is the NFL where different teams run different offenses and the ability to understand offensive concepts is different, how can one say Gettis would go to TB and produce to a certain level? Not everything can be explained away in formulas.
Also, you speak of mediocre QB play. I don’t see how this accounts for mediocre QB play. You haven’t explained to me how this doesn’t reward WRs that play with Mediocre QBs. If a QB throws 3 TDs to 1 WR out of 9TDs, that doesn’t account for QB play in the formula. All it does is show that if you’re a bad WR on a bad team, your team’s play relative to your performance on the field could absolve you of shame. I feel this says more about the inefficiency of our offense more so than the impact of the WR. The number of receptions by a WR has to be taken into consideration, at which point one can clearly see the greater consistency and impact Williams had over Gettis.
You haven’t explained to me how this doesn’t reward WRs that play with Mediocre QBs.
I don’t need to explain anything because you haven’t shown an example of this. Without an example I don’t know what to tell you. I used the example of Benjamin Watson to debunk your theory.
The Browns were 29th in passing in the NFL, only threw for 2989 team passing yards and 13 team TDs… so Watson, who led the team in yards and touchdowns should have rewarded his play. Yet, he only registered a 5.8 on my scale.
Let’s look at the leading receivers on the teams who were 5th in the NFL in passing (Green Bay) and the 27th in the NFL in passing (Jacksonville).
Greg Jennings: 13.09
Marcedes Lewis: 9.12
Notice that Greg Jennings has a comparable rating to Roddy White and the 15th ranked Falcons, and that Lewis has a comparable rating to Antonio Gates and the 2nd ranked Chargers.
But a receiver’s ability to stay healthy and START consistently should be taken into account in determining his impact.
So because Andre Johnson has missed 13 games in 8 NFL seasons he should be knocked for that? We’re not talking about extrapolating these numbers from 3 games to represent a full season, but when it’s 13/16 I think it’s safe to make up the rest.
Gettis is going to become my new favorite Panther methinks.
And while he does need some work on his routes, he has a sick double move, along with great speed and size. I think he could develop into a low tier #1 next year, and I’m really excited to see what kind of third year breakout he’ll have.
Yes I'm a dude.
I think you're the only poster here, who's mentioned his speed.
Compare his 4.43 time in the 40, at the combine last year, to all the other WRs from that class:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2010_WR
For the 30th WR taken in the 2010 Draft, his speed is about 12th fastest, and his height is about the tallest. Also his agility drills were very favorable, and he Broad Jumped 10’4", second only to Emmanuel Sanders. We got a steal with Gettis.
Something I found really interesting...
Is that in the lead-up to the combine, NFLN advertised it with little snippets of last year’s combine. Two Panthers were included in those advertisements (albeit briefly)…Hardy, and the subject of this post, Gettis.
Interesting how two 6th round picks from “the worst team in the NFL” managed to make it into those advertisements. The NFLN analysts (or any analysts for that matter) don’t talk about them other than in the obligatory weekly recaps of the games, but it does make me wonder if they actually have taken notice of Hardy and Gettis.
Maybe it’s all just a coincidence and the two happened to be picked out for the commercials in an eeny-meany-miney-moe fashion. But it just seems odd that the network didn’t pick out more hyped-up players (of course, Bradford and Suh were included).
"One play can win a game, but one play cannot lose a game." - Coach Peterson, Boise St.
"When you get into coaching, you strive to be a Super Bowl-winning head coach. That’s what my goal is, to come here and become a Super Bowl-winning head coach and to sustain an atmosphere of winning." - Ron Rivera
His speed is impressive
That’s one of his traits I like best about him. As soon as he caught that 88 yd. bomb from BSP against the Ravens I knew he was taking it to the house. It’s great to have a two time state champion track star stretching the field for you. I think we have a great combination of receiver skills with Gettis being the burner/deep threat, Lafell being a solid blocker and short to mid range possession receiver, and either Smitty, Pilares, or Edwards (whoever gets the job) at the slot receiver. Add in Shockey or Rosario at TE and Cam has solid options. That’s why I always dismiss those that say we have no weapons on offense. Not to mention Lafell and Gettis (and hopefully Armanti) should show significant improvement in their second years.
Rules and Regulations of the Game: 89, Bottom Line
by John Chilton on May 16, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
To those that say we don't have weapons...ES&D!
Their aren’t too many teams with established weapons like we have. As well as young potential weapons.
The Established:
J. Stewart
DWills
Smitty
Shockey
The “Potential” weapons:
M Goodson
B. Lafell
D. Gettis
T. Sutton
A. Edwards
G. Barnidge
Kealoha Pilares
Hmmm…now if we just get a QB that doesn’t make serious mistakes…yikes!
what about Wright
Everybody seems to forget about Wallace Wright who we just acquired last year but missed the regular season with a shoulder injury. Wright was a snub on the 2009 pro bowl team as a KR for the Jets and showed some value in the passing game as well. Ive got to believe that he will at least compete with Edwards and Pilares for the 3rd WR spot (If Smitty is ultimately traded).
by pantherfanatic on May 17, 2011 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions
He isn't kick returner, he is a gunner.
And with the new kickoff rule, his value is diminished. He’s gone with the first round of cuts, along with Martin. We just don’t need them. They were insurance in case Gettis/Lafell didn’t pan out.
by BSKincaid on May 17, 2011 8:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it very, very likely that Wright will make the squad.
I believe this for a few reasons. He showed promise at WR and excels on ST. Also, no team can run cohesive uptempo practices without at least six receivers on the roster.
Right. Typically there will be no more than 5 on the roster, but at least one on the Practice Squad.
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
Both Gettis and LaFell looked promising last season. Now with Pilares and possibly Smitty if he stays, with decent QB play and good playcalling our offense might actually do something.
That is a big homerism there, but if the pieces fall together, we could have a rather potent offense.
Proud Member of Cat Scratch Reader
Very young and Very Athletic if nothing else. Smitty is the wild card here but honestly if you look at this roster he stands out. Other then Baker and Kasay Smith is ancient compared to the rest of our team. Im sure that makes him feel odd man out. Generation gap
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
You should have said:
In all honesty though, hard to show promise when you are fetching water for people.
Proud Member of Cat Scratch Reader
Didn't need the mathematics to see it!
Agreed, if your outside of the Carolinas, you don’t know who Gettis is. When he was drafted and reading forums like this, I for some reason had a gut feeling that he would do something to prove himself this past year. When watching the games you could easily see his progression. With that you could see his confidence grow! This guy is going to be a great reciever! If Cam, or whoever is throwing the ball this year, can get the ball in his vicinity, he will make the grab! Can’t wait to see him this year!
Just from the outside looking in at this organization..without looking at a rating system
Wide reciever is the most talented postion in football. It will always be that way…so it isn’t amazing to have a reciever that is a no name guy in college develop into something special. This is why i think the falcons really screwed up cause they could have gotten a wideout later but that is another story….Gettis and lafour may not have the college resume of a 1st round pick but any wideout in the NFL can look bad with bad quarterback play…and just about any wide reciever in the league can look great if they have a trigger man to get them the ball. ….example…if West Welker and Dieon Branch where on a different team with out the benefit of playing with Tom Brady they could both be back ups somewhere. The Pats have constantly found players to catch the football with just the ideal that if your Quarterback is making the right decisions with the football you will have production. Both Gettis and Lafour have the skill sets to be pro bowl wideouts. It is really all about who is throwing it to them….you can think of alot of cases where if you take a certain quarterback out of the equation the wideouts would be nothing…. in my humble opinion that is what the saints have done with Drew Brez…none of their are game changers. They all have skills that allow them to play a role. Both of these young wideouts could be in the probowl many times in their career they have the skill…..or if the quarterback position doesn’t play at a high level they could be worthless…….i mean how much could Calvin Johnson have done last year with JC throwing too him?…just saying…..look at Larry Fitzgerald he is unstoppable yet can’t even get the ball because of quarterback play…………… If Newton plays well these wideouts will benefit….but no matter how well they play if Newton doesn’t play well it won’t matter how wide open they get. That is just the way it works
side note: this is the reason why Atlanta set the stage for the Panthers to pass them in the division soon. A team either regresses or advances based on a poor personel choice…lack of a quarterback…injury….youth….or old age. And the Falcons trading all those picks for a wide out that may not even be better than Greg Little (picked in the later rounds)…major major Franchise crippling choice that will bite them reallly bad later….their plan to sale the future to win now will open the door the Carolina to progress pass them ….the saints are one Drew Brezz injury from sub 500….i see a situation where in the next few years (sooner than later) Carolina will pass those teams………..NOW if the panthers can stop trading future picks away so they can come into a draft with their first 3 picks or better yet copy what the pats do and aquire picks ….
The Saints are Drew Brees
and Sean Payton of course. They’ll be good as long as Brees is there but when he retires I could see Payton leaving for a team with an established QB. I don’t know how Payton would take to trying to break in a new QB with his insane playbook. No Brees/Payton, Saints lose the ‘S’ and revert to the Aint’s IMO.
As far as the Falcons, I’ve always like Julio Jones, but unfortunately I have to root for him to fail now. Would be such a gaffe and I would love it. Let’s just hope he doesn’t turn into T.O. 2.0 minus the insanity. An aside, does T.O. get into the H.O.F. when his time comes? I’d probably say yes but I don’t know how the voters would look at it.
"If ya ain't first, you're last."
- Ricky Bobby's Dad
"There is no evidence that the tongue is connected to the brain." -Frank Tyger
by KaiserBromley on May 17, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Good article
I remember arguing on CSR from the beginning that Gettis was going to be a sleeper sensation and that Jarrett was done. Another great late pick by Hurney and Co. along with Greg Hardy. This year I think it might be Lawrence Wilson and the Hawaiian guy ( haven’t learned how to pronounce it yet :))
More importantly, we had 2 WR's in the top 5 among all rookies
LaFell and Gettis #4 and #5 in receptions. AND on a lousy team that had no QB and no coach capable of figuring things out. Of course Tampa Bay’s the ONLY other team to give 2 rookie WR’s so much time. Many rookies don’t get the opportunity.
stay thirsty my friends
I love Gettis' potential.
I remember saying in a post during the season that, with the ridiculous straight line speed that he possesses ( 2-time California State champ in the 200), he could end up being a Randy Moss-like threat. I was summarily told that was wishful thinking and that I was too much of a homer… since both of those statements were basically true, I had no problem with it. Still, if Gettis continues to improve his moves (which are underrated, in my opinion), he’s going to be a serious threat in the coming years. One thing not mentioned in the post, Gettis was top 5 in the league, for a good portion of the year (not sure where he finished) in bringing in passes that he got his hands on. And that was for all WR’s, not just rookies.
"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity." Hanlon's Razor
huh
"It is now official... Cam Newton is now the face of our franchise.
by Caro2daheart... on May 16, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I love Gettis
He’s our only WR that I’m confident in that could develop into a true #1, unstoppable WR. I’m iffy on LaFell, will reserve judgement on Pilares, and Armanti? Well, let’s not talk about that.
by Ol' Uncle Munnerlyn on May 16, 2011 9:58 PM EDT reply actions
LaFell, I feel needed time to acclimate himself to the game. He isn’t fast enough to be a speed guy, so he has to be that possession WR. I think it will take a little bit of time for him to get used to the physical style of play the NFL brings. But I think he has to tools to become a Moose-esque WR.
Proud Member of Cat Scratch Reader
by Ivan459 on May 16, 2011 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Except Moose could go deep
He still even holds the record for longest reception in a SuperBowl.
stay thirsty my friends
LaFell actually caught more balls than Gettis
And he did it in less minutes, starting only 2 games to Gettis’ 13. So Gettis hasn’t proven anything over LaFell, except that he’s more of a deep threat… which we’ve known all along.
If Pilares can play, these 3 make a nice little trio… A deep threat, a possession guy, and a shifty slot guy.
stay thirsty my friends
It should be noted though that LaFell had more targets than Gettis
Per Football Outsiders LaFell was targeted 77 times for 38 receptions, while Gettis was targeted 67 times for 37 receptions.
Furthermore, Gettis’ catch rate was 55% to LaFell’s 49%.
Finally, in terms of DYAR (Defense Adjusted Yards over Replacement) and DVOA (Defense adjusted value over average) this is how they stack up:
- LaFell: -41 DYAR, -19.4% DVOA
- Gettis: +62 DYAR, -0.8% DVOA
This means that Gettis was drastically better than anyone else on the Panthers (the DYAR) and within 1% of being the average NFL starter facing the teams the Panthers saw (DVOA).
I'd like to see those numbers in only games after the buy
Because LaFell clearly started off slow, but then got much better. And this shouldn’t be held against him, being a rookie, and since he showed major improvement.
stay thirsty my friends
I don't really care what his rating ends up being.
With this lockout already eating into Cam’s time in the offense, I don’t see the first couple of games being particularly kind to him. But that could potentially work in his favor as more ammunition for the mental chamber. What I’m really interested in seeing him improve over the course of the season.
by JorgithePirate on May 16, 2011 11:16 PM EDT reply actions
reply fail.
to make it relevant, I want to say that the offense as a whole will see vast improvement over the course of he year and Gettis stands to be one of the primary beneficiaries of the offense getting into its groove.
by JorgithePirate on May 16, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Giddy for Gettis
I think he needs a nickname. I was a fan when I saw him in the San Francisco game last year. He’s going to blow up this coming year. I just there’s football.
by Panda! on May 17, 2011 4:16 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
LaFell improved more than Gettis through out the season
I don’t get why some here are being hard on LaFell but not Gettis. If anything the numbers show that LaFell improved while Gettis stayed the same…
Before the bye
LaFell: 1 rec, 20 yds per game
Gettis: 2 rec, 30 yds per game
After the bye
LaFell: 3 rec, 39 yds per game
Gettis: 2 rec, 33 yds per game
LaFell more than doubled his production after the bye, Gettis only picked up an additional 3 yards. If this trend continues, LaFell will be much better than Gettis in 2011.
stay thirsty my friends
It's interesting what happens though if you look pre and post-bye, and get the true average
Pre-Bye
LaFell: 1.5 receptions, 19 yards
Gettis: 3 receptions, 32 yards
Post-Bye
LeFell: 3 receptions, 33 yards
Gettis: 3 receptions, 33 yards
That's the same thing I did :S
Except you rounded your numbers differently. And I didn’t include games not played in.
stay thirsty my friends
by southtunnel on May 17, 2011 2:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Your numbers show the same trend though
LaFell got significantly better while Gettis just maintained.
stay thirsty my friends
by southtunnel on May 17, 2011 2:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The funny thing about Gettis, IMO, is how significant his yards were without Clausen at QB
The guy got almost 40% of his yards in two of the six games without Clausen at QB. Clausen’s reluctance to throw the deep ball really hurt his numbers, since that’s where Gettis was getting open. Here’s to hoping he and Cam can put it together and make some magic.
Gettis should do better in a vertical passing game
I’m not sure Clausen was comfortable going deep last year
stay thirsty my friends
by southtunnel on May 17, 2011 2:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
A look back at scout's evaluation of Gettis, pre-draft, 2010
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/historical/1114035
A lot of positives were evident back then. The Panthers made a good selection. Because Baylor didn’t get the ball to him that often, his college numbers didn’t catch the eye of NFL teams. But he’s got tremendous upside, like so many NFL WRs who never reached their ‘ceiling’ while in school, but later blossomed.
Panthers should only draft receivers 3rd round or later from now on
Only 1st/2nd round WR to be sucessful was Moose. The rest (Him, Colbert, Carruth, Armanti) not so much. Looking at 3rd and later you got Smitty, LaFell and Gettis.
I didn’t watch a great deal of Panthers games last season due partially to the suckitude and also to the fact it was my first semester at UNC, but how is Gettis’ speed in short distances. That is, is he more of a long strider with limited agility seeing as he was a track star?
"If ya ain't first, you're last."
- Ricky Bobby's Dad
"There is no evidence that the tongue is connected to the brain." -Frank Tyger
If you get a chance, go watch the SF game
It was definitely his best game of the season. He broke some ankles on one of his TDs, so he does have some moves.
He is a long strider.
But he uses his body very well, particularly on curls, ins and outs. He is quicker than you would think in and out of his breaks, too. He, aside from Smith, is the most complete WR we have.
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
He really is quick out of his breaks
Especially for a big guy.
On a side note, looking at the various highlight vids for Gettis saw a Jimmy Clausen “highlight” video on the side bar lol.
"If ya ain't first, you're last."
- Ricky Bobby's Dad
"There is no evidence that the tongue is connected to the brain." -Frank Tyger
by KaiserBromley on May 17, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Jimmy Clausen highlight video...
It must have been when he was at Notre Dame.
Unless throwing the ball out-of-bounds is a highlight.
Ooooo!!!
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
Lol
The first 2:45 was of the draft, him at ND and pictures of him. The next 1:30 was dump-offs.
"If ya ain't first, you're last."
- Ricky Bobby's Dad
"There is no evidence that the tongue is connected to the brain." -Frank Tyger
by KaiserBromley on May 17, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Or the other team's highlights
Someone just compiled all the ones that involve the Jimmeh
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
4.43 in the 40 ranked 12th fastest of the WRs in his draft class.
His track records were for the 400 meters.
(Refer to the other measurables, as compared to those other WRs, by going to the link in my earlier post, above. – the one starting, “I think you’re the only poster here…”)
Armanti was a 3rd round pick
He was picked after LaFell. Regardless of what Hurney gave up to get him.
Not to mention, after one year you really can’t group him in with Jarrett, Colbert, and Carruth. Those names you mention were expected to contribute immediately at a position they excelled at in college, and become true impact players within 2 or 3 years. Armanti is expected to contribute at a variety of spots eventually, within 3 years, as a QB to WR conversion… Yet you are putting him in with people who player WR their whole life and were drafted way before him.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
But we gave up more value to get Armanti than LaFell or Gettis
Actually we gave up more to get him than Mike Williams or Jacoby Ford… This REALLY burns me. It’ll be hard to forgive Hurney for that.
stay thirsty my friends
One season a career does not make.
What happens if the guy averages 40 catches for 600 yards and 3 TDs for his career? That is plausible. Would that still burn you?
There have been 33rd picks who would dream of comparable numbers (hell, 15th picks).
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
Williams had 11 TDs last year alone!
stay thirsty my friends
by southtunnel on May 17, 2011 9:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You just love to live in hindsight.
It’s not like we are the only team to get that wrong. If scouts knew what his first year would bring, he would have been a top 5 pick. Values pop up all over the place, you can’t really blame Hurney for not picking a specific player. You may be able to blame him for not picking a specific position, but the reality is that Mike Williams lasted in the draft as long as he did because scouts for all the teams did not see him as being that special heading in. Had they been able to see his first year numbers, he would have gone before Dez Bryant.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
Ahem... We passed him up for a iffy QB conversion project
It’s not that we passed up on him. It’s that somewhere in Hurney’s brain he thought this undersized QB would make a better WR then all the WR talent still on the board.
stay thirsty my friends
Yes, but again don't blame Armanti
If you want it to burn less, you should be open minded about his future in this new offense and stop insisting he will fail.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
I am open about it
But to this point, it does kinda burn. But like ERL said, he very well could, and I honestly expect him to, develop and have a great career. It’s just at this point in time is all.
"If ya ain't first, you're last."
- Ricky Bobby's Dad
"There is no evidence that the tongue is connected to the brain." -Frank Tyger
by KaiserBromley on May 17, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Read it again. I blamed Hurney.
I’m not upset we mis-valued Williams, a future star WR. I’m upset that Hurney would bank on a project with so much WR talent available.
stay thirsty my friends
by southtunnel on May 17, 2011 9:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That I can agree with
Even I feel that we over-drafted Armanti. I think he is a great talent, but I also think that great talent would have been available later. If we had an 8-8 season last year, you could assume that we had found SOMETHING in one of our QBs and just needed a few other pieces to fit, which would have knocked our need for a QB down the charts, and you would have seen a DT go with our first round pick, and our 2nd round draft pick would have been a mid-2nd on a position of not as great a need.
Hurney did not consider that we could have a terrible season, and in the process gave away the 33rd overall pick. Not really something worth doing for a project, who really shouldn’t be someone you trade up for.
The fallout of course, is that Hurney gets a spotlight thrown on him for making the deal, and Armanti gets way more pressure to succeed then he deserves at this point in his career.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
I wrote this comment originally
but lost internet connection before I could post. What I forgot to put in this one was the stipulation that I’m only looking at the WR’s to this point in their career. I understand completely putting Armanti in the former group is premature, but so is putting LaFell and Gettis in the latter one. Sorry for the gaffe.
And I feel like you have to put 2nd + 3rd for Armanti. No fault of his own. Or you could look at it as 3rd + Ras-I Dowling, picked by the Pats at the 2nd we traded for Armanti, and however he performs this year.
"If ya ain't first, you're last."
- Ricky Bobby's Dad
"There is no evidence that the tongue is connected to the brain." -Frank Tyger
by KaiserBromley on May 17, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
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