Striking while the iron is hot: A look forward to 2012 QB prospects
by James Dator on Apr 18, 2011 11:30 AM EDT
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PrintFor the Carolina Panthers organization this draft isn't 'just like any other'. Even in the strike shortened, labor embattled 1987 season only one team had a top 5 pick in both the 1987 and 1988 drafts, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who went from the #1 pick to the #4 selection. Like the 2011 Panthers, the 1987 Buccaneers saw a new coaching staff with the appointment of Ray Perkins and no pre-season. In short, labor issues, new coach and they still found a way to improve from 2-14 to 4-11, with scabs playing two weeks of the season no less.
The moral of this story is that you have to strike while the iron is hot. Those 1987 Bucs did when they took Vinny Testaverde #1 overall and it ultimately paid dividends.
Fast forward twenty four years and we have what could be the strangest NFL draft in recent memory, especially at QB. A class that was slammed just two months ago for being weak is now being pegged with eight possible QB selections in the first three rounds by some analysts (Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Mallett, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick, Stanzi). Compare this to last year when the third round closed with only Bradford, Tebow, Clausen and McCoy off the board and you have the makings of a class that maybe isn't as weak as it first appeared.
What must be considered when weighing QB options in 2011 isn't what happened a year ago, but what will happen in 2012 for QB prospects. We'll look at that... after the jump
As it stands here are the top 8 prospects at QB for the 2012 draft based on a concensus of Scout.com, NFLDraftScout and Walter Football average rankings.
1. Andrew Luck, Stanford (Projected #1 overall)
2. Matt Barkley, USC (Projected top 5 pick)
3. Landry Jones, Oklahoma (Projected top 5 pick)
4. Nick Foles, Arizona (Projected late 1st/early 2nd round)
5. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State (Projected early 2nd round)
6. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas (Projected mid 3rd round)
7. Kellen Moore, Boise State (Projected early 4th round)
8. John Brantley, Florida (Projected mid 4th round)
What immediately jumps out is the top end talent in the 2012 draft, but the talent level falls off a cliff once you get past those top three QBs. There is much less stratification across the draft class. It would seem that in order for the Carolina Panthers to get Luck, Barkley or Jones they would need to be as bad in 2011 as they were in 2010.
On that point, here's some food for thought: There are at least two games the Panthers could have won this year, but left them on the table in the final plays (at New Orleans and at Cleveland). If the Panthers had done the sensible thing and kicked field goals in each of these occasions the team would have been 4-12 and could be holding the #4 pick right now, not the #1 pick.
Every year there are players that jump up and fall off draft boards, so it's fully possible Nick Foles could wow us and become a top 15 pick, but really, should the Panthers be gambling on the idea they'll be terrible again in 2012? If so, and they decide to wait on a QB then who do you like in 2012 better than the 2011 class? Andrew Luck obviously, and possibly Landry Jones... but is this a 'bird in the hand is worth two in the bush' situation?
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lol... fixed it.
Thats what I get for writing at 6 am and scheduling it for later in the day… synapses weren’t quite firing.
by James Dator on Apr 18, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you have to keep trying until you get one.
Once you have an impact player at the QB position, all the picks you spent to find him become irrelevant. You cannot measure a franchise QB’s worth in draft picks. So, yes, if you have to draft a QB every year—so be it. Once you find one, you may not have to draft another one (early) for a very long time.
"Man coverage? I'm eatin' his ass up! Nom nom! Pac Man, baby!"
~#89
Solid, solid plan
Oh and could someone go pick up Marty from the unemployment line?
"I only brought it bowling, I didn't rent it shoes, I'm not buying it a f@cking beer, he's not taking your f@cking turn, Dude."
~Walter Sobchak
Nope...
I think it might be safer to leave him right there. =) LOL.
I kid….I kid. (Sorta.)
by jamiedk on Apr 19, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for the picture of Triumph
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
I do think they need to draft a QB
But before they just hand him the starting job they should take a good long look at Tony Pike. I’ve been on the pike bandwagon for a long time and was excited to see them draft him last year. He wasn’t ready then but with a year at the clipboard under his belt and working with a pro-style offense, I think he may be the black horse on the team. But I mean there’s no way a sixth round pick QB is gonne take a team to the Superbowl (Cough Tom Brady Cough). I’m not saying he could be the next Brady but I think he deserves a chance to earn the #1 spot.
IT AIN'T SIZE OF THE DOG IN THE FIGHT BUT THE SIZE OF THE FIGHT IN THE DOG
Do you remember
if Pike had beefed up much last season as compared to college? I remember him being quite scrawny and people saying that once he packed on some weight (muscle) & strengthened his arm he could have a strong qb portfolio (height, weight). I know it seems crazy but I almost wonder if we will end up having 4 qb’s (1 rookie, 2 sophmore’s and a vet) on the active roster next year. I feel like if any of these guys get placed on the practice squad someone will snatch em up.
If 8 QB's go in the first 45 picks in 2011
then who will need a QB in 2012. Hypothetically lets say that Bills,Bengals,Card’s,Titans,S.F.,Viking’s, Skins,Dolphins, all take a 1st or high second round QB this year. That would leave Seattle and possibly Chicago to be in the hunt for a QB in 2012, and that with out Kolb filling one of the spots. Just seems with the teams in good QB situations and 8 high round draft choices from 2011 not to many teams would be ready to invest in a QB then barring injury.
"I see myself not only as a football player, but an entertainer and icon."
Part of the reason there are 8 projected to go is that there is a growing sentiment that teams with established QBs will look at this class as an opportunity to grab a lot of talent with high upsides and try and groom like Green Bay did with Aaron Rodgers.
Don’t be surprised if we end the draft with Andy Dalton as a Colt, Ricky Stanzi as a Patriot or Colin Kaepernick as an Eagle.
by James Dator on Apr 18, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Looks like it will be a good class
there are other names that I think project as 1st rounders. Kirk Cousins from Michigan State and Ryan Lindley from San Diego State. Of course – no guarantees that guys like Landry would even declare.
Bottom line: If the Panthers are confident that they have a franchise QB in the hand, they must take him. I don’t think they are. But they may still take him (whoever that is).
It boggles my mind that we are seriously considering Newton or Gabbert or even Mallett.
That's my thinking too.
Admittedly I still want Clausen to start, but I can understand the Luck love (even if I wasn’t on his bandwagon). The Newton/Gabbert stuff though just screams desperation from the Panthers. Neither one was anywhere close to being in the picture 3 months ago.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
I'm on this path as well
I give some leway with Gabbert as he wasn’t expected declare but still. Trade back and get some 2012 picks with this year picks and use those picks to trade up next year for Luck, Jones, or Barkley.
CAN'T WAIT!
Newton was most definitely 'in the picture'
There are several articles from last November questioning who would be the better #1 pick: Newton or Luck.
As it stands if I had to shuffle both top 8’s together into a top 16 here’s who I have:
1. Luck
2. Gabbert
3. Jones
4. Newton
5. Mallett
6. Barkley
7. Foles
8. Ponder
9. Locker
10. Pryor
11. Kaepernick
12. Stanzi
13. Dalton
14. Wilson
15. Moore
16. Brantley
Now, I know a lot can change in a year… but as it stands I think the 2011 class compares quite favorably.
by James Dator on Apr 18, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought Pryor was entering the Supplemental Draft this year?
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Last I heard he is 'considering it.'
"Man coverage? I'm eatin' his ass up! Nom nom! Pac Man, baby!"
~#89
Hes returning to Ohio State. ESPN had announced it last week
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
by MMA_PITBULL on Apr 18, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
2012 Juniors
How many possible 2012 standout juniors might enter early? This below avg class (2012) will be a catalyst.
This list is including a lot of juniors
Jones, Pryor, Barkley, Wilson, Brantley are all juniors.
Only guys without eligibility left in this top 8 are Kellen Moore and Nick Foles. Shoot, Andrew Luck could return to school again for one more year if he wanted to… get a head start on that masters.
If a kid at that level goes back to school twice while being the consistent #1 pick people would have to truly question his love for football.
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
It was intended to be very tongue in cheek...
But, one wonders depending on who winds up with the #1 what he would do.
Again if the team who gets the #1 influences him to stay or go id question him as a person. I didnt like when Eli he did it and even with the Super Bowl i think the chargers won out the better in that deal.
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
I agree with you
but then I think, what if I were slated to go #1 overall to the Raiders? There’s no way I could do it. I just couldn’t. It would be career suicide.
Disclaimer: BusyBeingAwesome = Irony. And, on a side note. I miss you, Steve Beuerlein.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Apr 18, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but in a few years that franchise will escape.
If you know what I mean. Can’t be that much longer.
"I only brought it bowling, I didn't rent it shoes, I'm not buying it a f@cking beer, he's not taking your f@cking turn, Dude."
~Walter Sobchak
I do know what you mean
But I think he will just have his heart replaced with a robot one. Not much would change, really.
Disclaimer: BusyBeingAwesome = Irony. And, on a side note. I miss you, Steve Beuerlein.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Apr 18, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he comes out regardless of who has the top pick.
I will take him for his word: he wanted to go back to school to get his bachelors degree. When he attains that goal, he will be ready to move on.
With that said, if he goes back to Stanford for another year and we have the top pick (assuming we don’t draft a QB early this year), Charlotte is going to riot.
"I only brought it bowling, I didn't rent it shoes, I'm not buying it a f@cking beer, he's not taking your f@cking turn, Dude."
~Walter Sobchak
OMG !! The Great Charlotte Wine and Cheese Riot of 2012
would be a historical event.
I often wish I could sell my brain to someone else. They'd be smarter, but I wouldn't give a crap, plus I could buy a new car.
lol nice
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
Honestly id just find the kid as a dick and move on.
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
Rioter: “Buffy, people are looting in the streets…go to Harris Teeter and grab me some caviar and Centrum Silver….tootles!”
"I only brought it bowling, I didn't rent it shoes, I'm not buying it a f@cking beer, he's not taking your f@cking turn, Dude."
~Walter Sobchak
lol
I can see five rioters fighting over the last bottle of Chablis.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
Charlotte win
"I only brought it bowling, I didn't rent it shoes, I'm not buying it a f@cking beer, he's not taking your f@cking turn, Dude."
~Walter Sobchak
I have a model friend who lives in Charlotte. The town defiantly is filled with some pompous ass’s
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
Yup.
I mean, who wears penny loafers, pleat-less slacks, a leather belt, a button-up shirt and a $5,000 watch to a football game? In the lower-bowl you are surrounded by ‘them.’
Personally, I prefer the upper-deck with the rest of the heathens.
"I only brought it bowling, I didn't rent it shoes, I'm not buying it a f@cking beer, he's not taking your f@cking turn, Dude."
~Walter Sobchak
We can't be that good next year
More than probable shortened season this year. No QB’s in this draft that will likely pay instant dividends. New coach, new offense and defense philosophy. Glaring holes at major positions (QB, defensive interior, CB, depth at linebacker, backup O tackle, proven offensive play makers in the passing game.) Sure we can address some of those issues, but I don’t think enough for us to even be 7-9 next year. We should draft something besides QB this year, build up our d-line, o-line, and secondary and draft a QB and offensive weapons next year. I think the two or three in the bush look a lot more attractive than the scrawny bird in hand.
In our division, 7-9 would be 'a win' next season.
The only way we attain that record (or better) is if RR, SM, and the defense finish in the top 5. Obviously our offense has to crawl before it can walk, walk before it can run…that’s at least a two year project.
"Man coverage? I'm eatin' his ass up! Nom nom! Pac Man, baby!"
~#89
I'm sorry
but depth at linebacker is one of our least concerns. We have an embarassment of riches there right now.
"If ya ain't first, you're last."
- Ricky Bobby's Dad
by KaiserBromley on Apr 18, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe Person
As for that Panthers’ party, I just can’t see them inviting fans into stadium if Hurney planned to trade down to teens and take a DT.
Interesting point something i have also wondered. Panthers are going out of there way to invite fans in for the draft to not make a splash move. Could be all part of the “Smokescreen” i guess. Also..I miss DG like hell. These other guys suck ass
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
"These other guys:"
"I only brought it bowling, I didn't rent it shoes, I'm not buying it a f@cking beer, he's not taking your f@cking turn, Dude."
~Walter Sobchak
by ERL on Apr 18, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
well played
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
i find the terminology used to find said picture on Google disturbing….
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
It could just be an excuse to sell beer to fans
Since there’s a chance there won’t be a season, or there will be a fraction of a season, they might as well squeeze as much money as they can.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
If they got Brooklyn to attend id go….
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
Yeah, I think that would definitely attract some fans.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
honestly if i was the front office i would use her. Im sure she would be game for it. She speaks high of the team and seems to know her stuff.
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
Jerry asked her to come and sit up front for the show.
She politely declined.
Disclaimer: This joke was in no way meant to speak negatively of The Great Panthers’ Czar.
Disclaimer: BusyBeingAwesome = Irony. And, on a side note. I miss you, Steve Beuerlein.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Apr 18, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
way that girl is built she could sit in the back and big cat would still get a eye full lol
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
Have I mentioned how much I hate (translation=envy) Andy Roddick? I hope he makes the most of it.
"I only brought it bowling, I didn't rent it shoes, I'm not buying it a f@cking beer, he's not taking your f@cking turn, Dude."
~Walter Sobchak
by ERL on Apr 18, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would use it to my advantage.
Reporter: So Andy, how do you feel about choking away yet another Grand Slam tournament?
Roddick: Well, considering that Brooklyn Decker is waiting patiently for me in my bed as we speak, I really couldn’t give a less of a shit about what tournament I just lost. On that note, I’m done taking questions, I have a supermodel to go bang.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
I actually surprised he doesn't say that.
I mean, we all know that’s what he’s thinking.
"I only brought it bowling, I didn't rent it shoes, I'm not buying it a f@cking beer, he's not taking your f@cking turn, Dude."
~Walter Sobchak
It's what I'd say.
Every time some reporter asked me about how I felt about losing, I’d say “Meh, no big deal. I still get to go home to Brooklyn Decker tonight.”
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
I like the qb next year a lot better than the ones year
Luck as we know is a surefire stud if there ever was one. Landry Jones and Matt Barkley both look like very talented prospects. Im not saying that we should be one of the worst in the league so we can draft one of those guys or that we shouldnt draft a qb this year. But if we dont draft a qb this year we can always trade up next year and get a Landry Jones or Matt Barkley like the Jets did to get Sanchez. Didn’t they trade from 19 all the way down to 5 or something?
The Jets did, that is correct
Though it’s important to note that it was the first time since Ricky Williams in 1999 that a team was able to draft into the top 5 from outside the top 5.
Prior to that it didn’t happen once dating back to 1980.
I think they should trade the #1 pick.
For an early second round, and next years #1 & #2. Then we have an early second round this year, an early third round, & a late third round this year , and 2 good first round picks and 2 good second round picks for next years draft. Then hopefully Luck will still be a top ranked qb &we can trade up if we have to to get him.
Then if there is no draft next year your SOL. Trading future picks is always risky. Armanti Edwards. Everette Brown. Jeff Otah. It doesnt always pan out.
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
Teams have been informed they can trade picks but to do it at there own risk. Also trading our 1st for a 2nd and next year 1&2 isn’t going to happen. You dont get the chance to draft top of the board talent often. Hell we have only did it twice i can recall. Collins and Peppers.
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
I believe the teams were warned to trade at your own risk for picks in the later rounds.
I could be wrong but i seem to recall reading that they may not have a 7th rond later on. They will always have to have a draft.
I’d take any of those top 3 over any guy in this draft. Also, if 8 QB’s really do go in the top 3 rounds this year there won’t be nearly as many QB needy teams next season. One of those top 3 could easily slide to us if we win between 5 and 7 games and pick in the top 16.
Actually...
Also, if 8 QB’s really do go in the top 3 rounds this year there won’t be nearly as many QB needy teams next season. One of those top 3 could easily slide to us if we win between 5 and 7 games and pick in the top 16.
That’s really an interesting thought. Unless we land a vet QB in the Kurt Warner-resurgance-in-Arizona mold, I have a hard time imagining us going any better than 7-9. So it’s quite possible that we could roughly land somewhere between #10 and #15 (give or take). While Barkley and Jones may be projected as both being Top 5, I can’t imagine 3 QBs (Luck, Barkley, and Jones) all going in the first 5 picks.
Of course, ideally, we manage to land a QB who turns out to be a rookie phenom and franchise QB in this year’s draft. =)
I've been thinking about that a lot today.
Looking across the entire 32 here are the teams in dire need of a QB:
- Carolina
- Buffalo
- Cincinnati
- Arizona
- Washington
- Tennessee
- San Francisco
- Minnesota
Here are the teams who will need to think about it now, or at latest one year from now
- Seattle
- Miami
- Jacksonville
- Oakland
Here are teams who could be looking QB now to prepare 2-3 years down the road:
- New England
- Philadelphia
- Indianapolis
- New Orleans
Here are teams who may need to address QB next year based on how their incumbent starters perform/respond to injury:
- Cleveland
- Denver
- Dallas
I can’t think of a time where there has been less of a drain at the QB position as right now. 19 of the 32 teams could potentially be looking for QBs now or next year. Even if 8 go off the board early, if we’re not one of them there could well be 12 teams vying for 3 QBs next year
I dont see it...
If Carolina were to finish as poorly in 2011 as they did in 2010, would Panther Nation be lobbying for Andrew Luck as our top pick…assuming we once again hold the top pick? Assuming we pick a QB first this year and have a horrible season we could be debating on whether or not we stick with the current QB much like what is going on with the Jimmy Clausen debate. If we do end up with a top pick in next year’s draft, I don’t see the Panthers taking a QB. However, if we choose to stay with Clausen for the upcoming season and choose to upgrade another part of the team and still finish bad, then yeah, lets talk about a new signal caller. Personally, its way to early to be talking schmematics of next year’s draft when there is an entire season that needs to be played first. That is if we have one…
by Disciple of Carolina on Apr 18, 2011 10:42 PM EDT reply actions
I have to disagree Disciple
that if we took Gabbert/Newton and finished dead last people would argue against taking Luck 1st overall.
Luck is a lock, Newton and Gabbert are settling. Granted, they’re the best we’ve got in this draft but there’s a stong consensus that using the overall pick on either one of them is a waste. Unfortunately, that’s the position we’re in so fans are trying to make the best of it and hope for the pick to be a franchise QB. I highly doubt it and hope to trade back to get Mallet and a good DT.
by Swamp Panther on Apr 19, 2011 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions
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