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The dark horse in the race for Panthers #1 Pick

During last week's CSR Radio episode, James Dator brought up the idea that the Panthers could throw the proverbial curveball and take a completely unexpected player with the #1 overall selection in the draft on April 28. While it wouldn't be a surprise that this particular player would be selected given his undeniable athletic talent and his extraordinary performance at the Scouting Combine, the shocker would stem from the fact that the Panthers already appear to be loaded at this specific player's position on the field.

I must also add, however, that the Panthers do have a history of drafting players who the front office feels will help the team regardless of how the roster is constructed. For example, no one thought in 2007 that the Panthers needed to use a 2nd round pick on a center, but Ryan Kalil was the choice when he was available with the 59th overall pick. Also, in 2008 no one thought that the Panthers needed to take another running back since DeAngelo Williams was becoming a budding superstar, but the Panthers still drafted Jonathan Stewart.

The point is, we can't look at this draft and say "we need [insert position here], so the Panthers are definitely going to draft [insert prospect here]". We have to think like the front office thinks, which is “we have to get the player who will best help this team win”, regardless of position. We've seen several times in previous drafts that the front office doesn't necessarily draft out of need in the early rounds, but rather they take the best player that they absolutely can to make the team better overall.  Let's take a look at who could be the dark horse in the race to the #1 pick in the 2011 NFL Draft after the jump...

Star-divide

In case you didn't read the caption for the picture or you haven't figured it out by now, we're talking about Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller.

Miller has been regarded by many pundits as a lock for a top-10 pick in the draft, and some analysts even have him going in the top-5. I believe these prognostications are quite possible due to the pure athleticism that Miller brings to the table, nevermind his excellent combine results and his status as a 1st Team All American in both 2009 and 2010.

Let's take a moment and examine his career stats while at Texas A&M (2007-2010):

178 Tackles (104 solo) / 33 Sacks / 0 Forced Fumbles / 1 Interception

His freshman year was (understandably) his worse statistical season, as he only made 22 tackles. He doubled his total in his sophomore campaign, and led the nation with 17 sacks in his junior season. He suffered a minor foot injury during his senior year, but still managed to record 10.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss, both of which were good enough for him to be awarded the Dick Butkus Award for the nation's top linebacker.

If the stats aren't enough for you, here's what Beergut (Which, for the record, is an EPIC name.), manager for Texas A&M's SB Nation blog I Am the 12th Man, had to say about Von Miller after he won the Dick Butkus award (emphasis mine):

When Von came to A&M, he wanted to help return our football program to their rightful place as one of the top teams in the nation, and to bring back the defensive tradition of the Wrecking Crew. Miller did more than that, though, bringing back the tradition of A&M being Linebacker U, and blazing his own trail, becoming the first Aggie linebacker to be honored as the best linebacker in the nation, and win the Butkus Award. When new recruits come to A&M and people look at defensive prospects, they will talk about them becoming 'the next Von Miller'; Miller has gone from an admittedly immature player his first two years here to someone other players will aspire to emulate. True freshman joker Damontre Moore talked earlier this season about how Miller was teaching him the finer points of the game, but more important than that, Miller was teaching him about being a man, and what it meant to be a true student-athlete.

(The full article can be found here.)

I don't know how anyone else feels about this kid, but to me he seems like the kind of guy that the front office would want to add to the roster. He seems to have his head in the right place, and when combined with his excellence on the field, he would be a perfect fit in Carolina. But, as we all know, college awards and great stats don't necessarily translate to NFL success, regardless of how highly regarded the player was in college (history provides us with plenty of examples). However, Miller appethears to have the talent required to succeed at the professional level, and his measureabKeyword or Call IDles (6'3”, 246 lbs.) are difficult to ignore.

One added bonus for Miller is that he has played in both the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses as an outside linebacker, so he has experience in both base formations. We all know that new Panthers Head Coach Ron Rivera wants to install a hybrid defense that features both the 4-3 and the 3-4, so Miller would be a good fit for the system that would utilize his talents and his experience with both formations.

Imagine adding Von Miller to a defensive unit that already has Jon Beason, Greg Hardy, Everette Brown, James Anderson, Dan Connor, Charles Johnson, and Thomas Davis. Imagine all the formations and blitz packages that can be developed with those players, and remember that we now have Sean McDermott, a Jim Johnson disciple, as our Defensive Coordinator, and Ron Rivera, another Jim Johnson disciple, as our Head Coach. Are you salivating yet? Are you chomping at the bit to see the defensive alignments that can be created with these players?

We can line up in a 4-3 with Johnson and Hardy as book-ends on the line, with Miller, Beason, and Davis at linebacker. We can set up a 3-4 with Johnson and Hardy as book-ends on the line, with Miller, Beason, Connor, and Davis at linebacker. Throw in Eric Norwood and James Anderson as rotational linebackers to keep players fresh, and we could potentially have a historic defense on our hands.

Given the depth in this draft class at the defensive tackle position, we are more likely to find quality players in the 3rd round at defensive tackle than we are any other position on the board. With the first pick in the draft, the team must take a player who can make an immediate impact, and there is not much doubt that Von Miller can be that impact player.

The only question is, does the front office feel that he is the best fit for our team? I'm not saying that he's an absolute lock for the #1 pick, but don't count out this dark horse in the race. He just might surprise you.

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this article is about Von Miller's draft stock. It is not a discussion on which quarterback we should take, and it is not an article on which quarterback is the best thing since sliced bread.

There has been a lot of debate around here lately regarding the quarterback situation and the potential draft stock of several of the quarterback prospects entering the draft, and I do not want this article's comment thread to be tainted by arguments between Camp Newton, Camp Gabbert, and Camp Clausen.

I'm asking everyone that all comments about quarterbacks please be made elsewhere. There are plenty of threads available to discuss the quarterbacks for anyone who feels that there is still something to say about them at this time. Any comments that change this thread from the topic of Von Miller and the rest of our linebackers (and/or the defense as a whole) to another quarterback discussion will be moderated.

You have been warned.

However, if you wish to discuss the defense and/or Von Miller, then by all means have at it.

Hat tip to James Dator for his comments on Miller being a potential dark horse candidate for the #1 pick during Tuesday's episode of CSR Radio that inspired the writing of this article. For the record, most of you may not know what I'm talking about, because if I recall correctly the discussion I'm referencing occurred after the radio show stopped recording. If you weren't able to hear this part of the show, you can visit this link and listen to a replay of the show that has the added conversation after we went off the air.

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Great minds think alike BW...

I have a post coming up that says the Panthers will go BPA and ignore position.

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by Jaxon on Mar 6, 2011 10:17 AM EST reply actions  

One thing I'm thinking about is...

Might the CBA affect drafting philosophy? If it’s taken care of sooner rather than later, then we’ll have a better idea of who could be acquired in FA before the draft.

But if we have absolutely no clue about who we could get in FA, I don’t see how you can ignore need in this year’s draft if we go into the draft before signing FAs.

I’ll pass over the He Who Shall Not Be Mentioned position here as it is against BW’s rules. =)

But, moving on to another example, if Marshall truly is out the door, do we want to go in assuming that Munnerlyn can hold up as a starting CB?

Once the CBA is taken care of, If the owners don’t get the right to have a window of time to re-sign their free agents before hitting the open market, do we want to assume that we’ll get CJ, Anderson, and TD back? And one would think that we’re stacked at LB. BUT, if, for some reason, we lose Anderson and/or TD (or if TD’s injured again), the pool of LBs grows smaller. If we lose CJ, that would be a gigantic hit to the DE position. And we know what the DT position looks like. It honestly does start in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and our D would have been much more effective if we had some effective big/fast bodies there.

Is it possible that, if there is no CBA in place going into the draft, that the FO might take the approach of prioritizing the positions perceived to be of greatest need, and picking the best player available according to the weight of the need?

Sorry – some of this probably applies to the upcoming post that Jaxon will put up.

Back to the particular player analyzed in this post, I think I would be satisfied with Von Miller. I think he’d be a great fit for a team looking to take a somewhat hybrid approach because of his versatility. I’d probably feel better being able to trade down and pick him up that way. But I do think he could be a viable option at #1 if Rivera and McDermott want an aggressive D that can give a lot of different looks.

by jamiedk on Mar 6, 2011 10:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Question

Are Johnson/Hardy big enough to be 3-4 de’s? I don’t like taking a lb number one overall. We have bigger needs, namely dt. An lb is useless if the big men up front can’t sustain their blocks. I know we don’t draft based on need typically, but I hope this year is the exception.

by BSKincaid on Mar 6, 2011 10:18 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Why would you want to draft based on need

with the 1st overall pick? No offense, but that’s not a very bright idea

by mangoes52 on Mar 6, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

When there are several...

Players who are graded equally with no standout bpa, similiar to this year, bpa goes out the window. Need is the deciding factor…besides, when qb’s go first overall most years, that screams need. Teams draft qb’s based on need. Are they not smart?

by BSKincaid on Mar 6, 2011 4:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I think they would be suitable DE's for a hybrid defense that would use both the 4-3 and the 3-4

I don’t know if they could be full time 3-4 DE’s, but I also don’t believe that Rivera will completely switch to a 3-4 defense. From what I understand, he wants to run a 4-3 but wants to mix in a few 3-4 looks when the situation calls for it.

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by BW Smith on Mar 6, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Von Miller is no better than what we already have. It is easy to draft BPA when you’re not going to be paying them tons of money associated with the first overall draft pick. Kalil, Williams, Beason….these were all players that didn’t cost that much in the grand scheme of things. No one’s going to draft an undersized LB suited for the 3-4 defense when Rivera has made it clear we’re running a 4-3. John Fox ran a hybrid scheme, bet you couldn’t tell.

by Blahbla on Mar 6, 2011 10:43 AM EST reply actions  

I could see it

If we lose Anderson, or if Davis isn’t the same guy, the pick makes a lot of sense. Hurney is always saying, “Keep your strengths strong.” so it fits to an extent. If our scouts have Miller as the best guy on the board, we shouldn’t mind spending the money to get him.

by patosan on Mar 6, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

It is easy to draft BPA when you’re not going to be paying them tons of money associated with the first overall draft pick.

I can understand this position. It’s part of the reason why I think he’s a dark horse instead of a serious contender for the pick.

Given that we have to re-sign D-Will, Charles Johnson, etc. I find it difficult to keep James Anderson, which would add the need for someone like Von Miller.

Thanks for adding your angle to the debate. :-)

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by BW Smith on Mar 6, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

All the looks we’re gonna have if (and that’s a big if) Miller is drafted on defense with the group we have… nasty. Just add a stud DT to the mix, and defense is pretty much set.

by NX75649 on Mar 6, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

3-4

We ran a few 3-4 sets with fox. We usually lined up in a 4-3 and dropped peppers into coverage with 2 dt’s and Brayden who has 3-4 experience from his days with the raiders.

I don’t understand the picture caption. He has had only 1 int how does he catch the ball better than our current LB’s?

by JTack on Mar 6, 2011 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

It was a joke.

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by BW Smith on Mar 6, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

derp

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by Ivan459 on Mar 6, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I just can't envision it....

Miller looks good, don’t get me wrong…but even if we ignore the fact that we’ve got a glut of LB and DE talent, I’m not sure I’d even consider him BPA at #1…

Nobody fucks with the Jesus! -Big Lebowski

by Tomthehomer on Mar 6, 2011 11:20 AM EST reply actions  

I like Miller

I would be shocked if we chose him though. We just have too much proven talent at LB…

by kittylover on Mar 6, 2011 11:52 AM EST reply actions  

If we do draft Miller

It may be saying something about the status of Davis. Any word on how his recovery is coming? Two knee injuries, despite the advancements of medical science, are particularly troubling.

Maturity is knowing you were an idiot in the past. Wisdom is knowing you will be an idiot in the future and common sense is knowing you should try not to be an idiot now. - J. Jacques

by Vagus on Mar 6, 2011 11:57 AM EST reply actions  

This

For all the talent we have at the LB position the assumption that TD will be healthy or that a guy who is number one overall quality wouldn’t take this unit from very underrated to crazy elite is a poor one to make.

That’s not to say I don’t think that we get Davis back and in good as new condition, but after last season this may be a good pick for both insurance and as a general improvement to the overall defense point of view.

"I kinda just sling it" -Jake

by bleed_in_blue on Mar 6, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I would say we have our hybrid in Norwood, no?

GSO

"I'd rather jerk off a tiger in a phone booth than draft Cam"
-Mel Kiper, Jr.

by MikeTrain on Mar 6, 2011 12:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

I think we should draft Cam Newton

meh meh meh

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by ticketholdrsins96 on Mar 6, 2011 1:10 PM EST reply actions  

jk

I hope you like prison food. ... And penis!

by ticketholdrsins96 on Mar 6, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

When was the last time

a LB was taken #1 overall? Von Miller better be a Beason, Ray Lewis, Patrick W etc etc if they select him #1 overall. Heck our back up LB seems to do good replacing the starters such as Davis etc etc. As bad as the offense was, I would do anyhting to upgrade it. Problem in my eyes I see no offensive player worth #1 overall. Mike L and Steve W said Gabbert should be consider #1overall, but stated that he will need to sit and learn for 1yr.

When was the last time a #1 overall pick sat and learn instead of playing right away, especially being paid top 5-10 money at his position? Sure is a bad yr to have the #1 pick. I see no Sam B impact at the Qb position.

by adam carter on Mar 6, 2011 1:16 PM EST reply actions  

Bradford was a bit of an anomaly though...

I feel like the reasoning behind starting a #1 just because he is a number one is flawed; How many #1’s have we seen in the past decade that were thrust into a starting role before they realistically should’ve been? I agree that a #1 in theory should be ready to start day 1 (in hopes of accelerating his ultimate impact on the team), but we shouldn’t be looking at him as an assured first year starter. Biggest issue with this draft is that you’ve got so many prospects who COULD start day 1, but aren’t traditional #1 picks….

Nobody fucks with the Jesus! -Big Lebowski

by Tomthehomer on Mar 6, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Gabbert

wouldn’t be getting top 5-10 money at his position because of the probable rookie wage scale in the new CBA

January 22, 2004 - February 24, 2011

by KaiserBromley on Mar 6, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't be a happy camper

if we take Von Miller #1. Even with doubts about TD’s health we still have James Anderson who had a near Pro Bowl year last year not to mention Dan Connor who performed admirably in the half season that he started. I feel like this would be equivalent to us taking Mark Ingram, although admittedly Miller is a better player at his position than Ingram is. If we really were to go BPA wouldn’t it be PP7 in that case?

January 22, 2004 - February 24, 2011

by KaiserBromley on Mar 6, 2011 1:28 PM EST reply actions  

"If we really were to go BPA wouldn’t it be PP7 in that case?"

Yeah as many experts stated he is the cleanest /safer pick in the draft, problem is the is he #1 overall good? Great cornerback such as Deion S( 5th overall pick), Revis( 14th overall pick), Nnamdi A( 30th overall pick) weren’t selected #1 overall. Just dreaming, but I would like to swap both 1st and 3rd rounders with the Bengals and get Carson P. By doing that we could choose between AJ G or PP.

by adam carter on Mar 6, 2011 1:32 PM EST reply actions  

Since there isn’t any clear #1, what the hell matters as to who we pick? Nobody is a clear #1 till we pick them there. Since the draft is deep in D, why not take a dip from the D pool. Miller would make our LB the best in the NFL if he lives up to his potential (big if there). As BW said, the draft is deep in DT’s and we can always add a DT via FA when the CBA gets renewed.

I would not be against taking Miller. When you consider the offenses we have to face within the division: altanta with their bruising running attack and fast strike passing O, the aints are always going to be an attacking offense through the air, and the bucs are slowly building an all around pretty good offense with freeman at QB and blount at RB. We are going to need one helluva D to keep those offenses from scoring at will on us.

Granted that wasn’t really the problem last year, but I think Rivera and McDermott are going to want a nasty and fast defense, and Miller could be the next Clay Matthews if he can play at that level. Color me pink for a D like that. I would be fully for a dark horse pick like Miller.

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by Ivan459 on Mar 6, 2011 2:41 PM EST reply actions  

I'd take Von Miller before I'd take Peterson

The thing I REALLY hate is that the Bengals will probably end up taking Cam Newton at #2. - SexBengals Fan

by DT3428 on Mar 6, 2011 3:33 PM EST reply actions  

I'll answer your question anyway.

It’s simple. Spencer Lanning is better.

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by BW Smith on Mar 6, 2011 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I would love to have Miller...

but can’t imagine him moving up to #1 though

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by Jaxon on Mar 6, 2011 4:24 PM EST reply actions  

Cool article. If you can’t decide on DT or DE, then go LB… it can only help.

right?

by scorpion12 on Mar 7, 2011 8:00 AM EST reply actions  

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