SBN 2011 Mock Draft Selection Pick #1 is Now Up With a Look Back

If you haven't seen it already I've made my official pick for the SBN mock draft which you can go review here. I think it goes without saying the majority of you will not agree with the pick. I went with QB Blaine Gabbert. I admit he's not the best prospect in the draft but I think he's the best QB prospect and that includes Newton. But I'm not trying to restart that argument here. Feel free to go to MTD for that...and flame on!

What I will do though is take a trip back in time to see how I did in previous drafts...no matter how ugly. You can see for yourself why I will never get paid to scout football talent! I might have a few choice comments from other members that harden back to each draft as well. Who's knows, we might just learn something and if not, well we just got 10 minutes closer to April 6th. So here we go, from the 2010 draft with what ended up being the pick in which the Panthers selected QB Jimmy Clausen.

2010 SBN Mock Draft - Panthers Pick at #48 is...WR Marty Gilyard

The other WRs still on the board were most notably A Benn and our own Brandon LaFell. Dan with MTD thought I should have went with Benn. I'm sure we can agree one season does not a rookie WR make, but here's their first year results:

So I would have to say Dan was right since Benn was drafted much earlier than #48 and had a pretty good year. Most of the comments were actually positive for the pick in spite of Benn being consistently rated above Gilyard. Since our own LaFell outperformed him coming from a much lower pick I'm okay with being wrong on this one! It's just one year so Gilyard could eventually take off but right its not looking too good compared to the players I left on the board.

Overall pick value to date: Poor!

More ugliness from my drafting selections...after the jump... 

2009

Moving back to 2009, the Panthers again have our first selection in the 2nd round at #59. This time I went defensive line and selected DT Jarron Gilbert. Not too bad right? Except that QB Josh Freeman was still on the board:

Jaxon: With the big QB Josh Freeman still on the board I’m sure my pick will not impress a certain very vocal section of my readers. Freeman leads the poll on my site seeking opinions on who to pick in this scenario. Yet I agree with John Fox; one bad, make that one terrible game by Jake Delhomme doesn’t negate all the big victories he has piloted for this franchise. I also think Delhomme represents the best chance for the Panthers to win in 2009 so I just cannot see spending our highest pick on a player who won’t see the field for at least one or two seasons. Also, though I love his size and athleticism, I’m not sold on Freeman being a can’t-miss prospect as his accuracy issues concern me.

It causes me physical pain to read that passage. As we all know Freeman never made it out of the first round and looks to be the Bucs QB for next several years.  Delhomme in turn never got over that one terrible game. So how has Gilbert done in his two years since being selected by the Bears at #68? They cut him last training camp and he landed with the Jets. Here's his two-year stat line:

Now that's pretty poor. Reading the comments though most people thought it was a good pick though I think Dan would have preferred Freeman. Looking back I would have too. Maybe Gilbert just wasn't a fit as a 4-3 DT and will instead flourish in the Jets 3-4. If that should happen you can bet I'll be talking about it!

2008

Moving on to 2008, the last time the Panthers had a first round pick until 2011. I finally get to talk about a good pick that I made. You might recall that the Panthers picked at #13 and I was quite amazed to see OT Ryan Clady still there. 

Jaxon: The Panthers need to add quality depth from this draft at several positions, most notably RB, DT, FB and S. Yet more important is plugging the glaring hole in the starting offensive line at one of the tackle positions. It was leaked prior to T Travelle Wharton signing his new contract that the Panthers are planning on moving him to left guard, hence the release of Mike Wahle. Since Jordan Gross has experience playing both positions and given the fact he is getting paid left tackle money he may get moved to the left side. I think in the end the Panthers will prefer to get a prototypical left tackle and leave Gross where he is comfortable.

I find Matt Miller's response to my pick amusing in light of what transpired. As we all know most of what I predicted came true (except the picking Clady part) but instead the Panthers traded away their future #1 pick to draft RT Jeff Otah. 

Matt Miller: This pick didn't make much sense to me until I read the GM's write-up. I do like the idea of moving Wharton to LG and giving them potentially 4 Pro Bowlers on the OL (Clady, Wharton, Kalil and Gross). My only beef is that the Panthers have so many real needs without moving people around. There's a need at defensive end, defensive tackle and running back. There are two franchise backs on the board, and a host of good defensive ends. The pick is creative, but almost too creative. Sometimes picking the best player, especially one who can fill a need, is the route to go.

One of those franchise RBs was the Panthers eventual selection in this spot RB Jonathan Stewart. Clady by the way went #12 overall to the Broncos right in front of the Panthers. Miller's top 5 players on the board at the time was CB Mike Jenkins, RB Mendenhall, RB Stewart, WR Sweed & ... LB Dan Conner! 

Just imagine if we our offensive line was Clady, Wharton, Kalil, Schwartz & Gross! Now that is some beef my feline-loving friend! Oh curse the Broncos! Of course nothing says the Panthers would have taken Clady over Stewart. Looking at the comments I remembered I just couldn't not comment after reading Miller's response:

Jaxon comment: In the previous post for the Broncos pick of Derrick Harvey, this was your Top 5 remaining players: [blockquote]Matt Miller's Top Five Prospects Remaining - 1.  OT Ryan Clady, 2.  CB Mike Jenkins, 3.  RB Rashard Mendenhall, 4.  RB Jonathan Stewart, 5.  WR Limas Sweed [blockquote]

Here's the link: http://www.mockingthedraft.com/story/2008/4/4/94343/18054

I think I made a pretty good case for taking a tackle and Clady is the best player available at any position. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Travelle Wharton gave up 9 sacks last season at LT including the one by John Abraham that knocked Jake out for the season. The Panthers also wanted C Justin Hartwig to switch positions to RG but he declined, so they cut him. Wharton has experience at LG so it makes sense.

My readership on the other hand is sure to give me crap because I've been arguing to take Chris Williams over Clady. The truth is when I got 'on the clock' I decided I trusted the opinions of all the guru's over my own. Clady is unanimously ranked the #2 tackle in the draft whereas Williams is ranked third or even fourth behind Jeff Otah. Clady has long arms, is strong and has quick feet.

The Panthers have needs at other positions but those needs are for depth. The Panthers need a starting tackle for the first play of the season. Just my opinion....:)

I still feel pretty confident the Clady pick was solid.

2007

Continuing our journey back in time, it's time for 2007. You might recall we were in a big need of safeties at the time and their were four good ones in this draft. I selected S Reggie Nelson with the 14th pick in the draft. 

I know a lot of mock drafts have the Panthers taking a TE or WR but I think Nelson is too good to pass up at position the Panthers have a big need. In 2006/2007 the Panthers struggled at the FS position and eventually moved Minter from SS to FS. This pick will allow Mike Minter to move back to SS (or even move him to the bench). Nate Salley, last years 3rd rounder will continue to back-up the position. This gives the Panthers more flexibility in dealing with Shaun Williams, who just may be released.

Nelson ended up being selected #21 overall by the Jaguars. After three season with the Jags he went to the Bengals in 2010 where he continues to be a starter. He has 9 INTs and 27 PDs in 4 seasons.

The Panthers instead traded the #14 pick to the Jets that ended up being CB Darrell Revis. The Panthers later selected LB Jon Beason at #25. So it was a good draft for the Panthers, not so good for me. Though Nelson has been an average pro he would not have been worth the #14. The Panthers more than adequately filled the safety position the next season in the 3rd round with Charles Godfrey. 

So here's my four year results:

2010: Poor

2009: Even Worse

2008: On the money!

2007: Poor

So if QB Blaine Gabbert ends up being a bust one year from now I might just have to give up my CSR drafting privileges to someone else. 20% just won't cut it.