I love the NFL draft. Of all the amateur selection processes professional football has all other sports trumped for the level of pageantry, intrigue, pomp and circumstance. When the commissioner walks to the podium and announces there has been a trade it's always great to see a pall fall across the crowd as maniacal Jets fans hope it somehow involves them.
A large percentage of Carolina Panthers fans hope that same promise will come on April 28th as they wait with bated breath, hoping they trade the pick and amass more options in the draft; like a twisted 'jack of all trades' the Panthers have no one overwhelming weakness, but rather myriad ones, this is why so many people would rather see the organization stockpile picks rather than take one good player at the top.
It takes two to tango though, and in all trade scenarios it's natural that a fan base over values their own players, under values others, ultimately thinking they should get far more than they do. After the jump we'll look at the NFL draft from the last twenty years, specifically the top 5 and see how many times teams have been able to trade and what they were able to get.
What startled me when I started digging through the record books is just how often top 5 picks were traded in the 1990's as opposed to the 2000's. From 1991-1999 there were eleven total trades involving the top 5 picks compared to only five from 2000-2010. It seems that either during the 90's teams valued their top five prospects less, or there were enough mistakes made in this time period that future teams learned from their mistakes. There seems to be a common thread in these deals, the team trading back normally wins.
1991
- Cowboys trades three players, the #11 overall pick and the #43 overall pick to Patriots for the #1 overall pick.
1992
- Colts trade QB Chris Chandler to Buccaneers for #2 overall pick
- Redskins trade #6, #28, and a third rounder for #4 and 3rd rounder
1993
- Jets trade player and #4 overall for #3 overall.
1994
- Colts trade #7 overall pick and 3rd rounder for #5 overall
1995
- Bengals trade #5 overall pick and 2nd rounder for #1 overall
1997
- Jets trade #6 overall, #67, #102, #207 for #1 overall pick
- Raiders trade #10 overall, #39, #107 for #2 overall and #166
- Seahawks trade #11 overall, #41, #70, #100 for #3 overall and #63
1998
- Chargers trade #3 overall, #33, 1999 1st rounder for #2 overall.
1999
- Saints trade entire 1999 draft, 2000 1st rounder and 2000 3rd rounder for #5 overall.
- Panthers trade for Sean Gilbert... no comment
2000
- Redskins trade #12 overall, #24 for #3 overall
2001
- Falcons trade #5 overall, #67, 2002 2nd rounder for #1 overall pick
2003
- Jets trade #13 overall, #22, #116 for #4 overall
2009
- Jets trade three players, #17 overall, #52 for #5 overall
As you can see there have been numerous trades in the top five of the NFL draft, but scant few involving the #1 overall pick. More often than not teams want to take what they perceive as the best player, but we have seen examples of moving back. I liken the 2011 draft most closely to the 1995 one, the last time Carolina picked #1 overall and the pick we ultimately traded.
Like 1995 there wasn't an absolute lock at QB, but rather a running back, Ki-Jana Carter who was regarded as the best pick the draft. Carolina found a way to move back to #5 overall, select a QB (Kerry Collins) and get an additional pick at the top of the 2nd round. What remains to be see is who (if anyone) will emerge as being worth a team moving up to #1 and take. From where I sit the best chance lies with Da'Quan Bowers; if Bowers has an amazing combine then I think you will see numerous teams in need of a dominant 4-3 DE look to leapfrog Denver and ensure his selection. If Nick Fairley represents the best example of need and BPA aligning then Bowers represents the best example of BPA and upside aligning.
Me, I could definitely see the Panthers moving back somewhere in the top 10 and grabbing a QB like Blaine Gabbert while addressing their DT issues with amassed picks and free agency. What do you think? On the back of Jaxon's post yesterday about trading what do you think is the Panthers best chance to move back?