Panthers vs. Bucs Pass Coverage Stats
One of my favorite things to do is dive into the more statistical side of sports and sites like Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus have helped make this side of the game more popular on the Internet. One of the things they look at is defensive coverage stats which show how many times a certain player was targeted by the opposing quarter back and how well they performed against them in terms of how many yards, first downs and touch downs they gave up. I can't seem to find this data anywhere on the site for individual games, so I thought it would be a good idea to track today's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and post it here so that the information is available.
The Panthers have had a porous defense for most of the season and it's largely due to injuries in the secondary and linebacking corps and things didn't get any better in this game with Charles Godfrey and Captain Munnerlyn inactive. Due to that, I thought it would be interesting to see how guys like Darius Butler, RJ Stanford and Jonathan Nelson performed in starting roles so we can get a better idea of who is more likely to stick around next season. It's tough to make judgments on a player from just one game but I thought this would be a good starting point and something that we could possibly expand on. I think most of us have a good idea of who the best and worst players on the team are in terms of pass coverage, but going more in-depth and exploring the stats can unveil some things we might overlook while watching the game.
Without further ado, we'll take a look at those stats from yesterday's game against the Bucs after the jump
Here's a few notes before we get into the data: None of this is official since I tracked it personally and there were a few spots which I had to go back and watch a replay to get a better idea of what happened. What I was looking for when watching the game was how many times a defender was targeted by an opposing QB, how many catches he allowed along with how many yards he surrendered, how many first downs and TDs he gave up and how many times he was charged with a penalty. I also included how many times an incompletion was due to the ball being overthrown or a receiver dropping the pass since those are more dependent on the offense than the defender making a play.
The Panthers defense had a good "bend but don't break" philosophy in the first half because the offense gave them a 10-0 cushion and Josh Freeman was actually very efficient in the first half. He completed 10 of 11 passes and most of them were for short gains and were good enough to get the Bucs key first downs and they scored on two of their first three drives. The problem was they couldn't get a running game going, fumbled the ball three times and the Panthers offense scored nearly every time they touched the ball. Carolina's pass defense did give up a lot of yards but they didn't let Freeman burn them with any big plays and did more than enough to get the job done against Tampa Bay.
Notes/Observations
- Freeman picked on Darius Butler all game but he didn't get burned that badly in the grand scheme of things. The Bucs got to him with the short-yardage plays but he kept the big plays to a minimum and didn't allow one catch over 20 yards. He allowed the one passing TD that Carolina gave up but that was mostly due to a great effort by Arrelious Benn. He managed to keep his head above water against a bad Tampa Bay team, but I'm curious to see what his numbers look like against a deeper receiving corps.
- The reason why Butler was picked on so much was because Freeman decided to completely avoid throwing at Chris Gamble. The only catch Gamble allowed was on a screen to Dezmon Briscoe for a six yard gain. This is either due to the Bucs respecting Gamble's ability or he had his man covered for the entire game. I'd say it was a little of both.
- James Anderson gave up a lot of yards and first downs to Kellen Winslow and Mossis Madu, but at least four of the catches he allowed came in garbage time when the Panthers were on top by 30+ points and playing a prevent defense. Numbers don't lie but they are misleading when not taken with context.
- One guy who did give up a lot of big plays was RJ Stanford as he allowed three catches of 15 yards or more. The only ball that went his way that wasn't caught was dropped by Sammie Straughter, so we can tell that he has coverage issues.
- Jordan Senn also has issues with pass coverage because all six balls thrown his way were caught and while he didn't allow that many yards, he did surrender three first downs and couldn't break up any passes. That's why he led the team in tackles for another week. Senn is a great depth guy and run stopper but he obviously has his limitations.
- Jonathan Nelson was also targeted by Freeman in this game as he had to deal with Tampa Bay's tight ends. He did a pretty respectable job considering he was just signed from the practice squad and was thrown into a starting role. He also had that big interception in the second half but that wouldn't have been possible if it wasn't for Anderson tipping the pass. Still, I think he did a pretty good job overall.
- Sherrod Martin's been criticized for his coverage skills all year but today was one of his better games as he only allowed one catch and he ended up nailing the receiver before he could do anything. However, he also had a bad pass interference call which gave 25 yards to the Bucs. His workload wasn't that big either and it's probably because the Bucs wanted to take advantage of Nelson with Charles Godfrey out.
- Over half of the incomplete passes Freeman were due to either receivers dropping passes or the ball being overthrown so that does suggest that the team's pass coverage could use some improvement. However, there are times when dropped passes and overthrows are caused by defensive coverages so that's not saying that Carolina's pass defense had a bad game. They didn't have a complete shutdown effort but they did enough to get the job done.
This is still a work in progress, so any suggestions on how this could be improved would be greatly appreciated. Are there any areas that you feel that I didn't touch here or any ways that we could possibly expand on this? I'm not sure if I could do this every week but getting an in-depth look at the Panthers would be nice, so I wanted to test this out to see how it went.
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Nicely done
Do this next week against the saints and we will really get a view of who really is going to get picked apart by a good qb and receivers.
I was planning to do that, but do you think the Saints will rest their starters next week if they win tomorrow?
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by MyFriendCorey on Dec 24, 2011 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
Saints will not rest their starters
If they lose to Atlanta on Monday, they’ll be playing for the division.
If they win against Atlanta, they’ll be playing for home field advantage and hoping the 49ers lose.
Right, I forgot that SF still has a chance at a first round bye. I think the Packers clinch the #1 seed if they win tomorrow night.
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by MyFriendCorey on Dec 24, 2011 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt the Saints would ever be comfortable letting us win a game
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by Thee Steve Johnson on Dec 25, 2011 12:19 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's not going to matter they're not going to be able to stop our offence.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
no doubt
Next weeks breakdown will be much more telling.
Failure to prepare is preparing to fail.
We are what we repeatedly do. Therefore, excellence is not an act, but a habit.
Great Job!
I vote for regular updates. If every game is too demanding, how about once every four games?
Don't give an inch...but take every yard you can!
by PantherNationn on Dec 25, 2011 12:16 AM EST reply actions
Imagine this...
An in-depth look at missed tackles would be enlightening, wouldn’t it?
Don't give an inch...but take every yard you can!
by PantherNationn on Dec 25, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Great write up
I hope to see more posts like it
Legen... wait for it, wait for it... DARY! -Barney Stinson
by Brandon Vincent on Dec 25, 2011 12:38 AM EST reply actions
Great Article
We did same thing last week. Bend but don’t break. Panthers are just getting by with what they got to work with. Next week will probably be ugly so we are just going to have to out score them. I didn’t see Hogan on field Was he hurt or what. I thought we would see him more.
Hogan was out there...
On special teams and in garbage time at the end of the game. I didn’t notice him getting picked on, but I did see him helping finish/clean up a few plays.
Yep. I'm a female who religiously follows a football blog.
"When you get into coaching, you strive to be a Super Bowl-winning head coach. That’s what my goal is, to come here and become a Super Bowl-winning head coach and to sustain an atmosphere of winning." - Ron Rivera
He's #21, right? I saw him out there briefly in the 4th Q.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Yep, he's #21.
Yep. I'm a female who religiously follows a football blog.
"When you get into coaching, you strive to be a Super Bowl-winning head coach. That’s what my goal is, to come here and become a Super Bowl-winning head coach and to sustain an atmosphere of winning." - Ron Rivera
Is he 100% healthy
If so I’m not sure why scrubs are getting minutes ahead of him.
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by southtunnel on Dec 25, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Even if they are ahead of him, I'd rather see what he's got
1/3 of our secondary is a long shot to be on any future roster. Since the season’s all but over, might as well see what kind of potential guys like Hogan have.
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by southtunnel on Dec 25, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
As long as it's the guys that haven't contributed.
The guys we’ve picked up/that have stepped up (Senn, Shirley, Kearse, Neblett, Keiser, Applewhite, Butler etc) had better be here next year in some capacity.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
I don't think he is 100% healthy.
Plus you have to factor in that he’s almost certainly not in game shape. Playing WR/CB requires a ton of sprinting. That requires far more cardio work than some fans believe. He only started practicing about 6 weeks ago after a long lay off.
I for one am glad they’re easing him in slowly.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
I watched him specifically when he was in
Whoever he was matched up on always ran deep routes, but Josh Freeman was Captain Checkdown yesterday so we didn’t really get a chance to see how he plays the ball in the air.
At the moment 'Bend but don't Break' is the best we can do with the current personnel:
limit the big plays and make the other team string together a long, consistent drive if they want to score.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Great Post
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by PughDaddy73 on Dec 25, 2011 9:09 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Off topic: Did you guys see Michael Vick and Steve Smith interview?
This is how I roll, animal print pants out control.
Oh Thanks man! I wanted to see this, but I forgot about it!
Cam Newton, when a reporter asks him who will win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday: "I'll tell you Sunday."
by Son of a Newton on Dec 25, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Great info, thanks for putting this together.
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by Swamp Panther on Dec 25, 2011 10:22 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Yep, I dont get why people say “i hope saints rest their starters so we can finish strong against a good team” really? So beating 4th and 5th stringer bench warmers would really be exciting? No thanks, as ive said before, if they sit their starters let them have the win and we might as well keep our draft position.. Beating scrubs will do absloutly nothing for us. Now if the starters are playing then game on! i would gladly lose a couple draft spots if we could beat the Saints starters in the super dome! For sure.
Who have you been hanging around with that has said they hope the Saints rest their starters?
You still are not getting it are you? Even if they rest their starters, we want wins. If they rest their starters, the players they use are still professional players in the nfl. And don’t you think it would be worse if they lost to the Saints 3rd string than if they lost to their first team? If the Saints started their worst players, I still want to see a win in the win loss column. I would expect us to beat them worse than we beat the Bucs. I just can’t figure out your mentality of wanting to lose games.
STICK THE KNIFE IN AND TURN IT!!!!!
Great post man, I loved the statistical analysis! Rec'd.
I did notice that Butler was playing pretty shoddy. A couple of times the ball was coming towards his man, and he didn’t even have his head turned to defend against it. I’m still waiting for Hogan to receive some significant playing time, and hopefully we will see it next week, but on the other hand, I don’t want to see him rushed back too soon.Overall, CB should be a priority next offseason whether it be in the draft or FA.
Cam Newton, when a reporter asks him who will win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday: "I'll tell you Sunday."
by Son of a Newton on Dec 25, 2011 12:32 PM EST reply actions
Great article. Well done.
I’d be very interested to see this more often with missed tackles in the equation.
by brothernick87 on Dec 25, 2011 3:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions

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