When can a defense win someone rookie of the month?
by James Dator on Nov 5, 2011 10:23 AM EDT
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Yesterday Jaxon gave an appropriate rant for the charge that Cam Newton is a 'turnover machine', and much in the same way I've been trying to formulate an apropos response to Andy Dalton being awarded rookie of the month earlier this week. In short it was a decision that was stupid, shortsighted, moronic and unintelligible. Panthers fans know this already, but lets go inside the numbers a little to show just how off base the NFL's decision was.
Rookie QB comparison, month of October 2011
| Cam Newton | 104/170 | 61.2% | 1,381 yards | 8.12 YPA | 7 TD | 5 INT | 88.4 QB rating | 5 rushing TDs |
| Andy Dalton | 82/130 | 63.1% | 909 yards | 6.99 YPA | 6 TD | 5 INT | 83.1 QB rating | 1 rushing TD |
This one just doesn't pass the sniff test in any way, shape or form. From listing to idiots on sports radio I know what the response is 'Andy Dalton won games, Cam didn't!' alright then, so I suppose in 2000 Trent Dilfer should have won the MVP right? He was the game manager of a Superbowl team while MVP Marshall Faulk had 26 total TDs, but his team got knocked out in the 1st round of the playoffs. This argument is beyond stupid, and I'll delve into that a little more...
After the jump
The defensive difference
As a society we like to be spoon-fed the easy answer all the time, and for morons this comes in the way of trying to derive player performance from team win/loss record. Unfortunately sometimes there's a little more that needs to be accounted for, so if you're one who likes to try and derive knowledge from win/loss records you should probably close your browser window, return to your episodes of Dora the Explorer and let the adults chat for a while.
In the month of October the Bengals' defense held opposing offenses to an average of less than 300 yards offense, a time of possession averaging 27:43, while scoring 21 pts off turnovers and one more TD off a punt return. Keep this in mind when we look at the offense.
During the Month of October the Bengals defense held teams to 17.25 pts, the Panthers defense held teams to 27.8 pts.
Quality of competition
During the month of October the Bengals faced teams with a combined record of 6-16, the Panthers faced teams with a combined record of 18-19... enough said.
The offensive difference
Earlier I talked about how many points the defense and special teams added, and here is where we look at that more in depth.
I'm assuming three things here:
1) A field goal is a stalled drive
2) A QB is responsible for his teams passing TDs
3) If a QB gets a team to the goal-line, only to have an RB punch it in then the QB generated the scoring drive.
Personally, I don't really see a problem with these conditions... so let's look at both teams.
Bengals: 21.5 pts of offense per game in October, 7 stalled drive scores (FG) = 16.5 pts per game directly tied to the QB.
Panthers: 25.4 pts of offense per game in October, 8 stalled drive scores (FG) = 20.6 pts per game directly tied to the QB.
The moral of this story
Take everything else out of the equation, set aside the fact the Bengals played terrible teams and the Panthers played good ones and forget that Cam Newton out performed Dalton in every statistical area... here's what it comes down to:
If you gave Andy Dalton's 16.5 pts per game to the Carolina Panthers in the month of October they still finish the month 1-4. If you gave Cam Newton's 20.6 pts per game to the Cincinnati Bengals in the month of October they still finish 4-0
So please. let's stop giving credit to the QB for being on a team with an excellent defense who played terrible teams.
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amen james
Testify… +1000000. Plus ant the end of the day dalton’s ginger. Surely that should count against him?
Save us Pilares
by LimeyPanther on Nov 5, 2011 10:35 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Its an easy way to stimulate jersey sales.
If there was a metric on sales #‘s on team merchandise after accolades I’m sure it would show this. Only way they could miss this bad.
by Swamp Panther on Nov 5, 2011 10:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
hey I'm a DayWalker....
and i take offense to that!!
This has been a public service announcement.......
by CaptainPanther on Nov 5, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
alright coppertop
Calm down, I was jesting
Save us Pilares
by LimeyPanther on Nov 5, 2011 11:45 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
lol daywalkers will take over!
This has been a public service announcement.......
by CaptainPanther on Nov 5, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
What's really disconcerting is the fact these are the same bozos who will be voting for ROY
If the Panthers only manage to win 4-5 games, or heaven forbid, 2 games, will the definitive ROY lose out on the big award?
this
Dalton has played extremely well for his draft billing, and deserves some recognition for his performance. Can’t take all the accredations. Its kinda like employee of the quarter IMO…once you win it, you have a sort of “penalty” against your achievements for a couple more awards so as to not inspire jealousy and/or complacency. It takes something really above and beyond even normal greatness to get it a second time in a row.
His "individual" performance
Against the Vikings was above and beyond for his 8th only individual start. IMO
by Swamp Panther on Nov 5, 2011 11:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Face it!
if we don’t start geting some Ws….Cam is not going to get the recognition that he deserves!
This has been a public service announcement.......
Agreed.
It’s been said before but these Game manger lovers on PFT and Espn keep giving undue props to Dalton and Alex Smith! Alex Smith? Come on. The 49ers are 6-1 because of Frank Gore and the 49ers defense. Not ALEX SMITH! Alex smith has 3INT’s not because he takes care of the ball, but because he hardly throws a ball more than 2 yards. The guy even throws to his offensive Lineman rather than to his receivers so!!!!!!! Moving right along. Let us not forget Dalton. A decent rookie QB at best but these Dalton lovers make it appear as if he is Elite. COME ON MAN!!!!!!!! REALLY? sadly for the Dalton lovers, the TAPE DOES NOT LIE. When teams take AJ Green out the game, Dalton throws picks like its for fun. They play the Raven and the Steelers soo so the (Bengals) will get found out. Just like the 49ers will get found out at some point. Those defense have yet to tested by top offenses. I’m not hating on the fact the Dalton is playing well for a rookie. But this emphasis that he the reason the Bengals are 5-2 is a fallacy. He will get found out. When his defense has a bad day and they need him to take shots down field like Cam does every game, ie throwing 15+ yards. He’s going to struggle because the dick and dunk offense they has John Foxiness about it. Limit mistakes. That offensive philosophy can only get you so far in the NFL.
Oh a quick heads up. I live in South Africa so you guys in the USA should have seen that horrible back throw Dalton threw on ESPN’s Not So Top 10 segment yesterday. LOL. Please tell me you guys saw that. And they named that guy the Rookie of the Month! COME ON MAN!!!!!! LOL.
by SimmerDownNow on Nov 5, 2011 11:20 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
oh it was hillarious!
i posted on it…monday or some day…..but it was hilarious!
This has been a public service announcement.......
by CaptainPanther on Nov 5, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I used to live in South Africa for a couple years.
Where are you at?
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on Nov 6, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
Great statistically based argument.
I’d love to see Bengals fans/Cam haters try and argue with that.
were our opponents really 18-19?
I know we played one more team but is it supposed to be 18-9?
18-19 is correct.
Chicago: 4-3
New Orleans: 5-3
Atlanta: 4-3
Washington: 3-4
Minnesota: 2-6
Newton for '11 ROY!
Walker for '11 ROY! I mean, assuming the lockout will end anytime soon...
Biyombo fo...ah who am I kidding? GO PANTHERS!
i forgot minnesota's record was that low
I thought for sure all of our opponents were either over or on the cusp
You had me at Christina Hendricks...
wait…what are we talking about again?
Oh, right: Cam is awesome. Noted.
Newton for '11 ROY!
Walker for '11 ROY! I mean, assuming the lockout will end anytime soon...
Biyombo fo...ah who am I kidding? GO PANTHERS!
hey
great article, James. your writing is always a wonderful treat for when I come to the site :)
i dedicate this signature to... my dog
But...but...I like watching Dora the Explorer. ;-)
Good stuff James. It really gets my goat when people use the “but he won games” argument when talking about QB’s — football is a team sport, not an individual sport.
(Note: This also applies to pitchers in baseball.)
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
BW and Jake
Able to bring baseball into any football conversation!
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Nov 5, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
At the end of the day it's about winning games.
The media, who appeals to the layman, is always going to heavily factor whether a player is on a winning team or not into the equation. Like it or not that’s just the way it is.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
true
Rodgers didn’t make the pro bowl last year, not because of the super bowl, rather that guy that plays for the falcons had a better record.
by Lost_terrapin on Nov 5, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Football players
are supposed to make a team and win games, not to put up stats. Cam Newton probably should win fantasy football Rookie of the month, but this is real football here, or is it a crime to recognize a rookie quarterback that is contributing on a team that is having a great year?
You sir are an idiot
One man does not play all 22 positions on the field. This is not basketball. You should read more about football before you say another idiotic statement. Read this to learn about football. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football
I dont understand
I know this is a team sport, in fact some call it the ultimate team sport, my point is that if that team is having a great year, why not recognize the rookie quarterback? Plus, its not like they giving away the MVP of the year.
Oh, and no Im not saying Cam is not having a good year, cause he has been great, but again, I dont see the problem with giving some recognition to a rookie player that is playing in a team thats having a great year.
Dont make this a Cam vs Dalton, cause thats not the point.
Recognition is fine
Marvin Lewis can take the Bengals to Pizza Hut forward pizza party. In terms of an individual award team success plays no role, especially when that rookie didn’t do anything special to help his team win. I
by James Dator on Nov 5, 2011 2:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think Newton should start playing LB to get some recognition from the guys that decide who gets the rookie of the week.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Maybe in highschool or college you can award players on a "it is your turn to win it basis".... but this is the pros
And yes it is something wrong with awarding someone who doesn’t deserve it over someone else who has performed better…that is called >> wrong.
are supposed to make a team and win games, not to put up stats. Cam Newton probably should win fantasy football Rookie of the month, but this is real football here, or is it a crime to recognize a rookie quarterback that is contributing on a team that is having a great year?
Your right this isn’t fantasy football. And in a real life game Newton is a better player and has performed better. Just because Dalton has played well on a good team should not trump Newton who has played historically good on a bad team….
Point simple blank….if Newton was a Bengal they would be challenging for a super bowl… and if Dalton was on the Panthers he would not be able to carry the Panthers offensivelly. (too a top 5 rank by the way)… AJ green would be having a even better year because Newton can throw down field better… Steve Smith would NOT be leading the NFL in yards…. it is pretty easy to see this…and it isn’t even remotely close
by Shankdiddy on Nov 5, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Dalton has been good... Newton has been historically good
It is really not even close… this concept that Newton is a “fantasy football stud” but not a good quarterback is just fan talk… If Bengals fans could trade straight up Newton for dalton all the intelligent fans would JUMP all over it…. and only a people that hated cam from the beginning would say other wise…. that is like taking hines ward over calvin Johnson… one is good…one is Godly
why so much animosity?
U guys r taking this as a personal insult and trust me I understand home team bias, but this is insane. Maybe you’re so mad bc your team can’t win games so you want recognition in meaningless monthly awards? Is the media attention Cam gets not enough? He’s going to be great- right now he’s putting up siiick numbers but is also giving the ball away a lot and is not winning games. Bengals r a team that NO ONE thought would win more than 2-3 games yet here we r with a rookie QB, rookie OC and a rookie WR1 not to mention an awful running game. Dalton isn’t flashy (see Cam) but he is mature beyond his years and his poise and leadership (not to mention his play) are one of the main reasons we r relevant this year. Cam was the #1 pick and will most likely win off ROY so please stop crying about this monthly/meaningless award and enjoy what you have at QB, I know I’ll be enjoying watching these two young QBs battling for years. Good luck with the rest of your season guys
The Curse of Bo Jackson: Jan 13th,1991- present day
by TruWhoDey on Nov 5, 2011 2:59 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
He's a lion fan to help you out. As far as newton
turning the ball over, well he doing everything to help the team win. Taking chances downfield, when at times he should takes what the defense gives him. Doesn’t help when his defense sucks ass along the special teams. He will learn from his mistakes. Good luck to your bengals for a successful season.
by adam carter on Nov 5, 2011 3:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I am not a homer.. i like the Panthers... but Lions fan to heart
But even as a Lions fan i can be objective enough to see Newton is better than Stafford… MUCH LESS Andy Dalton lol… i mean it isn’t animosity. It is simply unfair for Dalton to win the award when it is NOT a team award it is a individual award… and as a individual Newton his performed on a historically good level… Dalton has done very good himself… BUT no where NEAR what Newton … and that is just with in the context of the last 4 weeks not the entire season…
No NFL team in the HISTORY of pro football has needed their rookie quarterback to carry them like this…and he is doing it… he is the main reason why they are scary team to play… when teams play the Bengals this is not the case….. from a stats perspective he is clearly below Newton…..
it really isn’t even close… this really sounds like high school talk.. like giving the award to a kid who hasn’t got a turn to get attention or something….NOT based on what he has done as a player… And Dalton hasn’t out performed Newton that is the basis of why Panther fans will look at this and have “animosity”.. because it isn’t right
I am not one of those fans that just hang out to untruths just because i am a fan…. i LOVE the Lions .. but i am not gonna pretend they are something they aren’t. …. just saying that is why fans that defend this are doing.. pretending it is something that it is not… the truth.
by Shankdiddy on Nov 5, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If only we had at least a mediocre defense (esp. against the run) and at least mediocre special teams...
Yep. I'm a female who religiously follows a football blog.
"When you get into coaching, you strive to be a Super Bowl-winning head coach. That’s what my goal is, to come here and become a Super Bowl-winning head coach and to sustain an atmosphere of winning." - Ron Rivera
or if only our QB looked like Carrot Top's little brother...
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
If only we had addressed the glaring need we had on the D-line in the offseason...
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
AJ Green took a picture right when Dalton found out he beat Cam for the October ROM
by FF Companion on Nov 5, 2011 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 8 recs
C'mon Dude
I don’t think we should hate Andy Dalton for winning the award. He won it and Cam didn’t, bottomline. That doesn’t mean we should hate on him.
"If I know that you like Pancakes on Tuesdays, I might as well bring you the syrup" -Cam Newton
by Son of a Newton on Nov 5, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Yep. I'm a female who religiously follows a football blog.
"When you get into coaching, you strive to be a Super Bowl-winning head coach. That’s what my goal is, to come here and become a Super Bowl-winning head coach and to sustain an atmosphere of winning." - Ron Rivera
You're right
We should hate on him for being a ginger.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Nov 5, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
no
we should hate gingers for being gingers. they’re position in society shouldn’t matter. :P
by Lost_terrapin on Nov 6, 2011 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree that Cam should have been the Offensive Rookie of the Month, but.....
….. to me this is just kinda sour grapes. Winning is rewarded in this league, and having a quarterback from a 2-6 team be rewarded for his offensive abilities two months in a row doesn’t make much sense, at least in the NFL.
We all know Cam is superior, but if the Panthers had a couple more wins I believe he would have his second Offensive Rookie of the Month award.
QB's r judged off wins and losses
Not gaudy stats. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to get their head out of fantasy football land and back in the real world. Ex: Flacco and Sanchez- IMO both awful QBs With great running games and sick defenses…yet does the media bash them for awful stats,nope….BC their teams WIN.
The Curse of Bo Jackson: Jan 13th,1991- present day
by TruWhoDey on Nov 5, 2011 3:04 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
if you would have won more games
Cam would certainly have won the award- what’s that say about what is more important, wins or stats?
The Curse of Bo Jackson: Jan 13th,1991- present day
by TruWhoDey on Nov 5, 2011 3:08 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Not gaudy stats. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to get their head out of fantasy football land and back in the real world. Ex: Flacco and Sanchez- IMO both awful QBs With great running games and sick defenses…yet does the media bash them for awful stats,nope….BC their teams WIN.
Who has played better Newton of Dalton?
Its Rookie of the month
not team of the month TruWhoDey. It turns my stomach to type something so close to Who Dat wretch. Did you guys steal that from the Saints?
by Swamp Panther on Nov 5, 2011 4:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm curious as to what Bengals fans think about Dalton being named ROM.
I’m not concerned as to whether this affects Cam’s ROY chances, because (as has been stated many times) In the second half of the year Dalton and the Bengals have to play Pittsburgh, Baltimore. And, as soon as Cam passes Manning’s record, he seals the deal.
"If I know that you like Pancakes on Tuesdays, I might as well bring you the syrup" -Cam Newton
That's a good question.
From the Manager of Cincy Jungle in a front page article:
Quarterback Andy Dalton is already the first rookie quarterback in franchise history to win four consecutive starts as the Cincinnati Bengals starting quarterback. He beat out ESPN sensation and love child, Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, who really deserves the attention he’s getting while putting up ridiculous numbers in every statistical category save for wins, which may have earned Dalton the offensive player of the month in October.
From the same manager in a story titled:
Bengals Quarterback Andy Dalton Wins NFL’s Offensive Rookie Of The Month
Bengals rookie quarterback Andy Dalton won the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Month for October, in which the Cincinnati Bengals went an undefeated 4-0. He’s only the third Bengals rookie to win the player of the month award, following running back Corey Dillon (December, ’97) and linebacker Odell Thurman (September, ’05).
Dalton completed 63.1% of his passes for the month of October (82 of 130) for 909 yards passing, six touchdowns and a passer rating of 83.1. By comparison Carolina Panthers rookie Cam Newton completed 61.2% of his passes (104 of 170) for the month for 1,381 yards passing with 12 touchdowns (seven passing, five rushing) and a passer rating of 88.4. The big difference is Carolina went 1-4 in October.
When asked about it, Dalton said that while it’s an honor, he didn’t do it by himself. And presumably the award will find a destination inside a box at home.
What I found most interesting, the article has been up for 2 full days and has 9 comments. Nine. One less than 10. What a great fanbase the Panthers have, and what a great job CSR’ers do each and every day.
I just saw that. Wow. 9.
We do have a great fanbase, and CSR is second to none! I guess I understand what the writer at Cincy Jungle is saying, and where he is coming from.
"If I know that you like Pancakes on Tuesdays, I might as well bring you the syrup" -Cam Newton
by Son of a Newton on Nov 5, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Newton cares more about wins than awards
, winning will get you far in this league. Only if this shitty defense/ special teams could do their jobs better. Anyway just found out Gamble has surrender only 9 catches on 27 targets for 90 yards and a td. Can anybody tell me which game did gamble surrender a TD? Was it the packers game? If so I thought Jordan Pugh was responsible for the TD.
by adam carter on Nov 5, 2011 3:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I will say this objectively: Dalton has done far better than I ever expected him to do. Quite frankly, I really expected him to flame out the same way Clausen did. But the guy is helping the bengals win games, and to me that is impressive. However, I wouldn’t trade the bengals record or Dalton (or both together) for what Cam Newton has done already for this franchise.
Cam is an amazing QB, a guy who is going to revolutionize the game with his multi-threat ability on the field. Dalton cannot say the same thing and neither can his supporters. They have a decent QB, but I wouldn’t see him as being an elite QB at all. To me he is like a Jake Delhomme or Matt Ryan. He will have his seasons , but he will never be mentioned in the same breath as Brady, Rogers, Manning, Newton, etc.
Let the kid have his time in the sun. Awards are meaningless unless you have the hardware to back it up, and right now we are nowhere’s near capable of winning a Super Bowl… at the moment. And personally, I think Cam would agree with that statement.
Is it nice to say our QB Cam Newton won every rookie award this year? Of course it is. Is it nice to say our QB Cam Newton won a Super Bowl? You bet your tree fiddy ass it is. Now which would you rather say we have? Which do you think Cam would rather say he wants? Don’t worry about this folks, because I highly doubt Dalton will see a Super Bowl before Cam does.
Proud Member of Cat Scratch Reader and coiner of the (minus Bowers) meme
by Ivan459 on Nov 5, 2011 4:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You guys don't really think Newton is sat at home stewing about not being named the rookie of the month, right?
I’m pretty sure he couldn’t care less. He just cares about doing what he can to help this team win, not about individual accolades (they come when you win).
Let Dalton have his little trophy ’cos Newton is by far the better QB.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
by OldhamA on Nov 5, 2011 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm sure hearing he lost to Dalton
he walked over to his couch, sat down, put a towel over his head, and started stewing over it
Quick question, is anyone going to post an Alabama vs. LSU Open thread?
"If I know that you like Pancakes on Tuesdays, I might as well bring you the syrup" -Cam Newton
No, this is a Panthers blog...not a college football blog.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
I understand, I just saw that some of the other blogs were going to have one.
"If I know that you like Pancakes on Tuesdays, I might as well bring you the syrup" -Cam Newton
by Son of a Newton on Nov 5, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not very aware of QB mechanics
But is it a concern at all that Cam is always running college plays in shot gun? Im not saying this to be pessimistic at all im just wondering what the reason is and I was just wondering if running all these college plays is why Cam is looking so good?
Teams like the Patriots run most of their offense from the shotgun
It’s not an issue.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Nov 6, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you're overlooking one aspect of this observation.
While they may be “college plays,” they are being run against professional defenses. If the sets that Chud & Cam are executing were so bush league (I’m not saying you called the plays bush league; I’m just using this terminology to drive home my point), then we would be nowhere near the top 10 in offensive production, let alone top 5.
From where I sit, Cam looks just as good directly under center as he does in the shotgun formation.
Newton for '11 ROY!
Walker for '11 ROY! I mean, assuming the lockout will end anytime soon...
Biyombo fo...ah who am I kidding? GO PANTHERS!
The passion that we fans defend Cam with,
is indicatative of how starved for positives Panther Nation has been these last few years. Foxxy almost sucked the life from us all, and Cam has has applied the defibrillator. Our hearts beat again! Be thankful, be gracious.
by CoastalCat on Nov 6, 2011 10:04 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
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