FanPost

CAM is about to bring home the trophy

I'm talking about the rookie of the year award, and CAM is gonna start wrapping it up.  There are three distinct ways to measure his success and compare him to other rookies.  We can look at his records, the team's won-loss record, and how he compare to other rookies curent rookies.  Let's take a brief look at all three.

It is possible that CAM is on his way to becoming the greatest football player of all-time.  If he continues to play the way he is, he won't get there, but I think steady improvement can be expected over the years.  Between now and then, though, the records will fall.

He has already broken several records such as most yards in his first game, and first two games.  He's already set the record for most rushing TDs by a rookie - 9.  Now let's look at the records I expect him to break over the next six games.  He's on pace to throw for over 4600 yards.  I don't think he'll get there, but he'll definitely break 4,000, shattering the old record.  I think he'll run for 5 more TDs, and that will give him 14 for the year, breaking Steve grogan's record for rushing TDs by a QB - 12.  He's on pace to run for about 650 yards, breaking Vince Young's rookie record of 522 yards.  I don't know the record for total TDs for a rookie, but I think he'll get up to 18 TD passes, and when combined with 14 rushing TDs, that puts him at 32 total TDs for a rookie.  If he throws for 4200, and runs for 600, that would put him in the top 10 all-time for total offense in a single season.

Wins and losses is a different way to measure this team and CAM's success.  Many people have said that our defense is worse than last year's, and I agree.  Stats demonstrate this point clearly.  There are a few excuses we can use for this regression, too, and the two most used ones are injuries and a new scheme.  However, if we finish with 4 wins, we would have doubled last year's total despite a worse defense.  So in addition to all the records, he will have doubled the team's win total.

Then there is competition from other rookies.  Many people were trying to compare Andy Dalton based on wins and losses, but we know they have a top tier defense and fewer overall injuries to key players.  But if you just look at the numbers, Dalton has fewer passing yards, total TDs, rushing yards and a lower QB rating and completion percentage.  A couple more games against Ed Reed and Troy Polumalu may be all he needs to work his QB rating downward, and his INTs up.  I don't think he has a shot.  The only player I see comparable to CAM is DeMarco Murray.  If Murray averages well over 100 yards a game the rest of the year, and finished with double digit TDs, and the Cowboys win the division, I could see Murray getting some votes.  But in the end, he won't do enough to beat out CAM getting his first trophy.

Next up for CAM, NFL MVPs and Lombardi trophies, starting with a beatdown of the Colts tomorrow.  Let's get it on!!

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