Will Smith-Finnegan Matchup Fireworks Explode?

Players at the Combine all perform under the exact same conditions, and that’s what makes a comparision valid. The equipment is basically the same (clothes and shoes), with almost no weight difference, they all run on the exact same surface, without wind (because it’s in-doors), and the same individualls doing the timing.

Where as, at a Pro Day a player may be running on grass (long, short, or uneven cut), on turff, on a field track, or even on a basketball court if it’s raining. Also the distances have to be double or tripple checked, to make sure the 40 yard mark isn’t only 37 or 38 yards. Several Pro Days occure on the same dates, so they have different timing crews. Those are some of the reasons that around half of the Pro Day 40 times are around a full 1/10th of a second faster than the Combine times, and very very few Pro Day times are slower than the Combine times.

People don’t always run the same speed each time, only a hand full run the same time on both runs each year. Most players run a few 100ths of a second slower on their 2nd run, but a few do run faster their 2nd time. Some teams will time each player 5 individual times on each run, then throw out the highest and lowest times. All of that also hold true on the field. players field speed changes from down to down, not to mention that defensive players are in a slower closing speed until they identivy a target, and then they jump to full closing speed.

Actually their 10 yard split times are a much better measure for most players. The only players that really need a 40 time (other than to measure their punt coverage speed) are the deep threat WR’s and TE’s. The 10 yard split is just about equal to the distance traveled to sack a QB, by the D-Linemen and LB’s, and for RB’s to take the handoff, and get through the D-Line. A 3 to 5 yard time for O-Linemen would be their best measure of their thrust, but they don’t record that.

With modern tech, maybe soon they can measure actual on field speed, but even that would have some of these same problems, because once again the players don’t always run the same speed on each play. Also (though I don’t think ie reallly matters) the weight of their equipment isn’t the same for each position.

The NFL tries to list a players top 40 yard speed (that’s why they only list one 40 time, and they give the players 2 chances, and sometimes 3), under identical conditions, so they can measured evenly against one another.

Anyone who thinks that 40 times are worthless is a total idiot. The most telling proof of this is the amount of money the NFL and each of it’s teams spends each year to get this information, and they know far more than anyone posting on this forum.

Personally, I evaluate a player based upon:

25% – How he performs in the Combine & Senior Bowl practices and drills (it’s the only chance we fans get to see them one on one against equal talent)..

15% – How he played in college.

10% – How he played against top competition in the College All-Star & Bowl games.

20% – How he performs at the Combine (more as a knockout factor than a lock-in factor).

15% – Medical reports.

15% – Personal interviews (looking for knockout factors).

Of course we as fans only get rumors of the medical info, and interviews, so our knowledge base can never be as good as the NFL exc’s, yet sometimes fans make better picks.