Panthers Schedule Now Turns Favorable

MIN @ CAR - With no significant injuries coming out of their win against the Redskins…the Carolina Panthers host another home game against a Vikings team that just got bruised and beaten by their division-leading rival. The Panthers stack the box to contain Adrian Peterson. On 3rd and long, McDermott dials up some effective blitzes to rattle Ponder. Cam takes advantage of the Vikings’ 29th ranked pass defense to go up early and take away Minnesota’s ability to play ball-control with their 5th ranked rushing attack. We play all out, holding nothing back, knowing we’ve got the Bye Week afterward to heal up. As a result, Panthers win.

TEN @ CAR - With the Bye Week to prepare, the Panthers go on a tear. Carolina puts the experience of containing Adrian Peterson to use and focus on doing the same to Chris Johnson. Matt Hasselbeck could be the wildcard. We limit his play by running the ball against their 24th ranked run defense to keep the Titans’ offense off the field and win the time of possession. The coaching staff turns Cam loose and he uses his feet as much as his arm. He makes several highlight shows that evening and the Panthers win.

CAR @ DET - Really difficult road game. Noisy dome. Big challenge. By this point, hopefully the Lions are dinged up. The Panthers have plenty of game film to try and pick them apart. We go ball-control again, running against their 28th ranked run defense. We keep Stafford, Megatron, and Jahvid Best on the sideline. Halftime adjustments prove key. Turnovers become a major focus. Special teams play disciplined. Low scoring game. Panthers win on a late FG.

CAR @ IND - The hapless Colts prove no match for the Panthers, despite playing at home. Carolina gashes them in the run game, where the Colts rank almost dead last in the league (i.e., 31st). Our defense capitalizes on turnovers and the ability to force three-and-outs against Indy’s 30th ranked offense. It’s no contest as the Panthers win big.

CAR @ TB - Suddenly above .500 (at 6-5) and riding a 5-game win streak, the Panthers face their next (and some might say weakest) division rival. The Bucs currently have the 28th ranked defense in the league (26th vs. the pass, 24th vs. the run), giving Cam and the Panthers’ offense an opportunity to exert their will. Through a combination of mounting a lead and then playing ball-control, they hold up their end of the bargain. The supposedly struggling running game of the Bucs (just 22nd in the league with LeGarrete Blount and now a season-ending Achilles injury to Earnest Graham) actually does pretty well against our weaker run-defense, but Cam’s success in putting points on the board quickly has them playing from behind, freeing up our defense to focus solely on stopping Josh Freeman. We do. Surprisingly, (and to the delight of the national media) the Panthers win again.

ATL @ CAR - Payback’s a bitch! The Falcons lit up the Panthers earlier in the year. This time we get them at our house, riding a 6-game win streak and our first victory in the division over the Bucs. The Panthers seek to make it two. With plenty of film to analyze where things went wrong, they correct those errors, play mistake-free football at just the right time. Cam goes into beast-mode, picking up first downs with his feet to keep the chains moving and throwing intermediate passes to keep the defenders on their heels. The defense still struggles to contain Michael Turner and Anthony Gonzales. But Turner is a bit nicked up by this point in the year and the Panthers refuse to give up. They do just enough to squeak it out. Maybe even in overtime. Panthers win.

CAR @ HOU - Let down game. Having gassed themselves in two back-to-back division rival games, the Panthers simply aren’t prepared for the Texans, and especially not on the road at their house. Arian Foster has a big, big day, exploiting our front-seven in the running game and picking up painful yards in the passing game. Andre Johnson is also back in form. It’s just too much for the Panthers to overcome. Likewise, the Texan’s (currently) 7th ranked defense has enough to blunt and stymie our offense. Panthers lose.

TB @ CAR - Sitting at 8-6 now, the Panthers are in the wild card chase. Meanwhile, the Bucs come off a draining, hard-fought win against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night football the prior week. Rivera, Chud, and McDermott cook up something extra special. The players are absolutely geeked for the rivalry…and they badly want to renew their winning ways following the loss to Houston. Freeman doesn’t stand a chance. The defense goes all out. Turnovers seal Tampa’s doom. Cam breaks even more rookie records. Astoundingly, the Panthers win.

CAR @ NO - Unmentioned in Carolina’s return from the ashes, the New Orleans Saints have quietly gone about running the table against their other division rivals and remaining opponents. They already stand with Green Bay at the top of the NFC. And, by virtue of the Saints losing the tie-breaker to the Packers, they have nothing left to play for. Instead, they pull Brees as soon as the Panthers put a few hits on him. They rest a few more of their starters to help them heal up before the playoffs. And, they secretly wish to hand the Panthers the victory so it’ll ruin Atlanta’s hope to make the playoffs. As a matter of convenience, the Panthers win.

Suddenly, a team that went 1-5 in their first 6 games, finishes the season at 10-6. But is it enough to make the playoffs? Dallas, Detroit, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Chicago were all in the running, too. But the Panthers’ success dragged down the Bucs and Falcons. The Bears wilted as well in the face of competition within their own division. Detroit maintains enough to grab the higher wild card. And, by virtue of a better record in the conference, Dallas owns the tie-breaker over the Panthers for the last one. As a 10-6 team, we fall just short of making the playoffs in one of the largest turnarounds in NFL history. Rivera almost wins Coach of the Year (just losing out to Detroit’s Jim Schwartz). Cam wins Rookie of the Year (in a landslide), but it’s little consolation for missing out on a shot at a Superbowl run. He vows to come back stronger and better prepared than ever. The media falls in love with him all over again.

And, that’s…your best case scenario. Realistically, I sincerely doubt that happens. The key games are Minnesota, Tennessee, Detroit, and (of course) our division games. I do think it’s completely believable that the Saints have nothing play for in the last week of the season, so we probably pick that one up. But the Atlanta and Tampa Bay games are by far the biggest challenges. Unless we can sweep all three of those, it won’t matter if we scratch our to .500 against everyone else.

But that’s just my dreamy two cents,
—Neil

MIN @ CAR - Despite the win against Washington, Minnesota is a different animal. Particularly in the run game where we just do not match up well. That meas we’re nowhere ready for this game. The Vikings keep Cam off the field by playing ball-control. Even when we score, they easily counter and chew up clock in the process. As a result, Panthers lose.

TEN @ CAR - Same deal with the Titans. Hasselbeck is a great game-managing QB who knows how to spread the ball around and pick apart the underneath routes which our LBs struggle to cover. Chris Johnson decimates us with his speed and we give up even more highlight reel material for the evening sports shows. Despite some wishful thinking, the Panthers lose.

CAR @ DET - The Lions are starting to worry that they’re falling out of the race for their division. Green Bay just can’t be stopped and Detroit has to focus on winning the wild card race. That means they need a win against us as a conference opponent. We have trouble dealing with the noise at Ford Field. Turnovers kill us. Panthers lose.

CAR @ IND - The hapless Colts prove no match for the Panthers, despite playing at home. Carolina gashes them in the run game, where the Colts rank almost dead last in the league (i.e., 31st). Our defense capitalizes on turnovers and the ability to force three-and-outs against Indy’s 30th ranked offense. It’s no contest as the Panthers win their third game of the season.

CAR @ TB - We really try to get up for this game, as the Bucs seem like the weakest of our division rivals. But we’re at their house. It’s later in the year and we’re banged up a little. Tampa is also getting pretty desperate to keep pace with both New Orleans and Atlanta. They need a division win and they’re not about to look past us. Despite our best effort, the Panthers lose.

ATL @ CAR - Oh, we want this one bad. The I-85 rivalry is renewed. But we’re still reeling from the loss to Tampa Bay. Atlanta is just as commited to keeping up with New Orleans and Tampa Bay in the chase for a playoff spot. And they still have Michael Turner and Anthony Gonzales. Our front seven just aren’t up to the challenge. Panthers lose big. Again.

CAR @ HOU - The Texans just have too much for us to overcome. Stout defense. Potent offense. We just can’t hang with them despite how much we may want to. Arian Foster has a field day. Andre Johnson paces Steve Smith. Panthers lose.

TB @ CAR - Okay, this one, we’re prepared for. We already have game film on what went wrong the last time. We get the Bucs at our house. Cam breaks a few rookie records for most yards passing in a season, etc.. We get to play spoiler as the Panthers win and we climb to 4-11.

CAR @ NO - New Orleans has already clinched the division. They’ve go nothing left to play for since Green Bay owns the homefield advantage courtesy of their season-opening win over the Saints. So, they pull Brees and a few more of their starters to help them heal up before the playoffs. As a matter of convenience, the Panthers win and we go 5-11 on the season.

That’s more than twice the number of wins we had the prior season. Cam wins Rookie of the Year, but he’s not satisfied with it and still takes the losses hard. He commits to coming back stronger than ever next season. The Panthers net some really high draft picks. Rivera targets some serious upgrades to our defense, counting on improving the depth behind the starters who’ll return from injury. And he focuses on getting Cam more quality receivers to target in the passing game (whether via trade, free agency, or a mid-round draft pick). Regardless, it’s clear to everyone that the Panthers are turning things around. And the core nucleus of impact players are already signed for 2012.

And, that’s probably your worst case scenario. Realistically, it could turn out worse than that. The Panthers might get swept in their division. And New Orleans might still have something to play for in the last game of the season, depending on how things shake out. Regardless, any further losses only increases our draft position. And I think it’s pretty clear what the Panthers are capable of under Rivera’s regime. We’re already on the right track.

But that’s just my sober two cents,
—Neil