The Draft Value Index: Drafting by the numbers
by Tater596 on Oct 20, 2011 8:54 AM EDT
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PrintThis is something I started working on during the offseason, but was never compelled to finish it. But now, with our list of needs in next years draft getting longer by the minute, it seems like a valuable tool that we could use. With Thomas Davis and Jeff Otah's future both very uncertain, we have positions that went very quickly from strengths to weaknesses that we might need to address in the draft. But what is our MOST necessary area of need? I have developed a simple system to decide.
I will warn you all that it is a bit subjective, as just about everyone will have a different opinion of the quality of a player we have, and even more so about the quality of player available in the draft. This system is designed to be a general guide of where we should look in a balance of need vs. BPA.
Have a look at the system... After the jump.
As alluded to a moment ago, the draft is all about balancing need versus best player available. This Draft Value Index system (DVI) will attempt to balance need against what is available, and answer when it is appropriate to postpone immediate success for the good of the team, or when you should look to the present rather than the future.
The system provides a point value to the situation of a team at a position from 10 to 1. 10 being the MOST dire and 1 being no worries. It then goes on to provide a point value to a draftable player from 10 to 1, 10 being the best in the draft and 1 being unproven questionable talent.
To compute the DVI of a position, you simply add the two numbers together.
Let me go ahead and show you the metrics...
Draft Value Index (DVI)
Team Situation at position (TS)
10 - No viable or serviceable starter and no legitimate or serviceable future starter
9 – No viable or serviceable starter and serviceable future starter
8 – Serviceable starter with injury/time issues and no legitimate or servicable future starter
7 – Viable starter with injury/time issues and no legitimate or servicable future starter
6 – Serviceable starter with injury/time issues and no legitimate future starter, but servicable future starter exists
5 – Viable starter with injury/time issues and future viable starter exists
4 – Serviceable starter with no legitimate future starter
3 – Serviceable starter with legitimate future starter
2 - Viable starter with serviceable depth
1 – Viable starter with legitimate depth
Projected Player Quality (PQ)
10 – Once in a generation player, immediate viable starter, future HOF’er
9 – Special talent, proven college track record, immediate viable starter, future Pro Bowler
8 – Above Average talent, proven college track record, immediate viable starter
7 – Special talent, unproven college track record, immediate serviceable starter, future viable starter
6 – Above Average talent, unproven college track record, immediate serviceable starter, future viable starter
5 – Average talent, proven college track record, immediate and future serviceable starter
4 – Average talent, unproven college track record, future serviceable starter
3 – Developmental talent, proven college track record at position, future viable starter
2 – Developmental talent, proven college track record at other position, future viable starter
1 – Developmental talent, unproven college track record, future serviceable starter
A couple of key terms:
Viable starter- Someone you are fully comfortable carrying the load at a position
Serviceable starter – Someone you are comfortable carrying the load until better talent can be acquired
Now, let's apply the system to the Panthers by looking at our team situation at a position.
QB - We have Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, and Jimmy Clausen/Armanti Edwards. Cam Newton has already proven himself a viable starter, and Derek Anderson is a serviceable backup. Jimmy has proven unserviceable, and Armanti is unproven. Our TS at the quarterback position is therefore 2 - Viable starter, serviceable depth
RB - DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Goodson. Clearly two viable starters, and a servicable starter. This gives us the best possible rating, 1 - Viable starter, viable depth
WR - It gets interesting here. Steve Smith, Legedu Naanee, Brandon LaFell, Armanti Edwards, Kealoha Pilares, David Gettis on IR. Steve Smith is a viable stater, but is approaching the end of his playing life. Depending on your opinion of the guys behind him, we currently don't have a legitimate #1 WR behind him, but we do have plenty of guys who seem at minimum of being #2s. That makes WR a 6
I think you guys get the picture, so from now on I will just list the positions with the greatest need.
WR - 6, OT - 7, G - 4, DT - 9, OLB - 7,
Now to apply these findings a little...
DT is our greatest need. We should draft DT if a player of quality 10-8 exists when we pick, for comparison, Ndamukong Suh has a PQ of 10, we have a TS of 9, that gives Suh a DVI of 19. The reason that we go DT, is that the next greatest need we have is OLB which we should only consider drafting if a player has a DVI of 17 and no DT is higher than 16. If there is a tie, as say the best DT is a 17 and the best linebacker is a 17, the tiebreaker is organization philosophy, which for Carolina is BPA over Need. Therefore, we draft the "Once in a generation linebacker" first over the "Special but unproven talent" at DT.
I hope this makes a modicum of sense, I'll be working to make it more understandable over time.
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A good example...
Matt Kalil is a 9, it is very tough to be a 10, usually only one per draft… if that.
Our need a tackle is that we have both aging and injury prone viable starters in Gross and Otah. Behind them we have guys who are servicable at best. This makes OT a 7.
Matt Kalil’s DVI is a 16.
With the Panthers typically following the BPA model, there needs to be a DT of DVI 17 or better to beat him. Which means a DT needs to be available at our pick who has a PQ of 8 – Above Average talent, proven college track record, immediate viable starter. Anything less than that, or if the Panthers give Matt Kalil a PQ of 10, they should take Matt Kalil.
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And as it stands today I see no 10s or 9s at DT in this draft
And there MAY not even be 8s.
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defintely no 8's
Thompson is very unproven and Jerel Worthy has bust written all over him
We could see someone emergy by the end of the college football season
I would say right now, the safe move would be to draft Kalil if we can.
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Great system
I like drafting kalil as well, but I don’t think we will pick that high.
by Panthster on Oct 20, 2011 9:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I honestly think Penn State's Devon Still is a 8-9 player
He is pretty much the only talent on their line, and has still been a standout college athlete. For his size, his athleticism is very impressive.
I Ta'amu as atleast an 8.
That may just be me, but I would take him at 6-12.
Great job Tater
Good combo of need and BPA. I agree Kalil looks the best right now, but it’s a long way until April. Keep us posted on this.
Thanks.
I love this system
I thought of something similar but this is perfect. Very good job. The only thing is that i think LB TS should be a 3 or 4. Anderson is a very viable starter, Beason had an injury this year but we dont have reason to believe that it will be an issue in the futre, and Davis is a great player (although he does have major injury concerns) and our depth behind them is fairly decent
What drags it down is that if Thomas Davis can no longer play, we don't have a serviceable starter to replace him.
So maybe we should break positions like LB down into at least OLB and MLB. MLB looks good, OLB I have concerns.
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This is really cool Tater.
I can’t wait to steal this and claim it as my own. j/k
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
j/k
FTFY
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
well played
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
As my agent you get to claim 5% of it
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awesome
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
I thought you fired his worthless ass?
I don't always fail, but when I do...
I do it awesomely.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Oct 20, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
We worked it out.
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BW knows ways of hanging on past his prime. He is still on CSR right?
Proud Member of Cat Scratch Reader and coiner of the (minus Bowers) meme
Your flaw is assuming I had a prime to start with
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
FIFY
Your flaw is assuming I had a prime to start with.
I don't always fail, but when I do...
I do it awesomely.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Oct 20, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
x
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
lol this almost made me sad.
Until I saw the T-Shirt.
I don't always fail, but when I do...
I do it awesomely.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Oct 20, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I started to blur that part out, just to make you sad.
You deserve it for hurting my feelings.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
LOL
I thought it was the six or seven seconds after he beat Super Mario Brothers without cheating.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
I've never done that...
But I did beat The Legend of Zelda before I could walk…
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
LOL
I knew it was 8-bit Nintendo related.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
I was just checking out some stats, and apparently
Cam’s QB rating with two receivers isn’t in the top 20 of QB’s. As a comparison, Blaine Gabbert and Andy Dalton are both in the top twenty. Considering we have a top 5 offense, this is pretty surprising.
"Panther Pride" -Sir Purr
by Son of a Newton on Oct 19, 2011 5:28 PM EDT reply actions
In other words he is better when there are three or more true WRs on the field?
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
Uh.... yes
His QB rating with 3 receivers on the field is 86.9. Also his QB rating in the shotgun is 80.6 good enough for 19th in the league.
"Panther Pride" -Sir Purr
by Son of a Newton on Oct 19, 2011 5:33 PM EDT reply actions
Here's the website Im getting this stuff from
by Son of a Newton on Oct 19, 2011 5:35 PM EDT reply actions
hmm... It didn't show up
here we go,
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=&type=receiving&range=nfl&rank=223
"Panther Pride" -Sir Purr
by Son of a Newton on Oct 19, 2011 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I rec'd the post.The thought and effort you've put into this is evident.
"I may be old but...eh, I forget the rest!"
Here Are My Scores For The Panthers Positional Needs, But I Did A Couple Of Positions Didn't Fit Well
Defensive Scores:
10 – NT – I don’t see any of the current NT’s as more than just rotational backups.
10 – DT – I only see McClain as a rotational backup
2.5 – DE’s – Both CJ and Hardy are viable starters, but they lack serviceable backups.
5 – MLB (if Connor re-signs)
7 – MLB (if Connor doesn’t re-sign)
9 – WLB – Jason Williams might become a servicable future starter.
2 – WLB – If James Anderson moves to WLB.
9 – SLB – If James Anderson moves to WLB, with Applewhite & Norwood.
2 – SLB – If James Anderson stays at SLB.
1 – CB – Good depth, and it will get better if the pass rush is improved.
2 – S
Offensive Scores:
2 – QB
1 – RB
4 – FB
1 – TE (is Shockey re-signs)
2 – TE (if Shockey doesn’t re-sign)
2 – WR (Steve Smith)
3 – “big” WR (Gettis, LaFell, and Naanee)
2 – C
4 – LG – Wharton’s good but aging, and lacks a good backup Bernadeau’s a free agent)
3 – RG – If they re-sign Schwartz and keep Hangartner, but it drops to 9 if they both leave.
2 – LT
9 – RT – if Otah doesn’t return,(very unlikely), but a 5 if he does.
This is where subjection comes into play.
I don’t give our DT situation a 10. A ten means you know what you have, and you have no one. Fua and McClain are both too young right now to dictate as purely rotational players. I am giving them a temporary pass and saying they will be at least servicable, but we will want to look for at least 1 guy who is more solid. 10 literally means you have a few veterans, you know what you have, and they are all shit.
MLB also, Beason does not have a “history of injury”, when I say injury prone, I mean a guy who consistently misses games each year. I think if Beason comes back, and even if he isn’t the exact same Beast he was before, he is still a clear viable starter. With Connor backing him up, MLB borders on a 1 but is likely a 2. (a 1 would imply no drop off from starter to backup)
The OLB situation depends on shifts, but there is no doubt it’s a position of need considering the injury to TD. We need a solid starter, and fast.
I rated OT a 7 because while we clearly have an injury prone viable starter in Otah, we may have a serviceable backup in Bell. It is just to early to tell. so OT straddles that 7/6 line.
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I disagree with safety ratings
They miss tackles and are very weak in run support, qb pressures, and are often out of position. Nobody is scared of them. They have no leadership skills. Yes they can catch which is more than one of our receivers can do, but they are contributing to our soft middle and weak defense.
We need to beef up this position. We need a Minter type or Harris would have been a big upgrade.
by Panthster on Oct 21, 2011 10:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I Tried Ranking Some Players On The PQ Scale "Tater" & Some Didn't Seem To Fit Well
It seems like some categories might need to be added, however I understand the reason for not going over 10, so perhaps you could add .5’s to your scale.
It also doesn’t include injuries, so maybe this could be done subtracting a number from the PQ, based upon the severity of the injury.
Here are some of the problems I noticed in scoring players:
WR Alshon Jeffery – He’s a #9, but I’m not sure he’s a future Pro Bowler, so maybe create a 9.5 for the current #9, and replace 9 with the same thing, but without the “future pro Bowler”.
OLB Zack Brown – He’s a Special Talent, but his college track record isn’t on par with Jeffery’s, but it’s far from unproven.
DT/DE Jared Crick – How to account for his season ending injury?
NT Almeda Ta’amu – He’s dominate at his position, but it’s a position that doesn’t produce flashy stats.
DE/DT Melvin Ingran – he’s a developmental DT untill he adds more weight, but he he may be a serviceable situational pass rusher.
I tried to keep it simple.
If i start throwing fractions and 20 values on each side, it becomes a bit too much. In some cases, you need to look at two numbers and see which way a player leans. If you’re high on him, you give him the larger number, if you’re a bit wary, you give him the lower number.
For example, I rate Alshon Jefferey an 8. He COULD be a 9, he could also be a 7. There has been plenty of talk of him just getting by in college on pure athleticism alone. While this does make him a special talent, it also calls his track record into question. It then becomes a question of what you value more… the talent potential, or proven track record. This represents a blending of 9 and 7, where he is a special talent, and he does have a good college track record but it could have been better with more focus in certain areas. So you split the difference and give him an 8.
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I do like the idea of deducting PQ points for injury effects.
That might make it into the more refined version. Envisioning something like this
+1 PQ for player with NO injury history, i.e. never missed a game in college due to injury.
+0 PQ for player with minor injury history, i.e. no major surgeries, never missed more than 8 games in his college career.
-1 PQ for player with moderate injury history, i.e. no major surgery, but missed more than 8 games in his college career.
-2 PQ for player with significant injury history, i.e. major surgeries that held him out of entire seasons, and may have lingering effects
Also, possible PQ penalties for character issues
+1 PQ for a clean record
+0 PQ for a single minor suspension or misdemeanors (these are college kids after all)
-1 PQ for multiple suspensions reflecting a pattern of bad behavior
-2 PQ for expulsions or felony offenses
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Some examples of current players when they were drafted (PQ)
Jon Beason, DeAngelo Williams would be a 9
Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen would be an 8
Greg Hardy would be a 7
Sherrod Martin and Steve Smith would be a 6 (Don’t bite my head off, remember we NEVER thought Smitty would be what he is back then!)
Jimmy Clausen, Captain Munnerlyn, Jordan Pugh, Terrel McClain, and Eric Norwood would be a 5 (this illustrated the value of QBs in a draft)
RJ Stanford and Sione Fua would be a 4
Tony Pike, Byron Bell, and David Gettis would be a 3 (Yes a 3, Gettis is a poster child for developmental talent that overachieved projections)
Armanti Edwards would be a 2
Jordan Senn would be a 1, 1 would be typical of UDFAs and practice squad guys.
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Oh and btw... FLAME ON!
This is what makes this system fun!
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if we pick in the top 5 we have to get a home run and Kalil is the surest thing besides the bearded one. It starts in the trenches and while our Dline is pedestrian our Oline has its questions. Having somebody in place to protect our Franchise QB ( God it makes me happy to say that) would be a wise move. Defense can be patched with the remaining picks not to mention we will be getting back a vet DT and Beason next year
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As it is, per my system and my judgement of Kalil's talent, His DVI is 16 bordering 17
Kalil is a definite PQ of 9, and barring any problems the rest of this season, he may be a 10.
Our TS at OT with Gross getting up in years, and Otah being highly injury prone is a 7. Even if you feel that Bell will be a good starter going forward, that still leaves one tackles spot without a good backup or young starter.
By comparison, i don’t know if there is a single DT with a PQ of 8 in this class that would give him a DVI of 17. Which means if Kalil is there, we should take him.
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Obviously, there's a learning curve
but didn’t some people believe that with time and work Lee Ziemba could become a starter? Also, how does Zach Brown rate? (I’m kind of wary of Beason’s injury…when it happened weren’t most people saying it was a very difficult injury to return from? I don’t doubt his determination to do whatever he can just some injuries are worse than others).
Finally, would you ever apply a similar scale to URFA’s? Say OT DVI ranks way above DT, WR & LB. If we continue to go BPA and don’t fill one very large role (say WR) then we could always look to available free agents
"One step at a time"
Good points
Re: Lee Ziemba – Right now, he is no better to us than Duke Robinson. Duke had loads of talent but couldn’t apply it because he was lazy. Ziemba is a little different, he doesn’t have the natural talent of Duke, but seems more willing to put in the work. To me, this lowers his cieling but raises his floor. I don’t know if he will ever be more than servicable.
Our OT situation is complicated, and this is where subjection comes into play. There is no doubt we have two viable starters, but one is getting old and the other can’t stay on the field. Depending on how you feel about the depth behind them like Byron Bell and Lee Ziemba, we are either as bad as a 7 or as good as a 5.
Re: Beason, I remember reading that it was a “high” achilles tear, which from commentary on here is easier to recover from. Not to say any achilles injury is easy, but this is the easiest of the bad. I think Beason will return. Whether he is the same as before, I don’t know, but to me even if Beast is not quite the same he is sitll a viable starter. With Connor behind him MLB is clearly a 2 or borderline 1, because even though Beast is missing this season, I would not label him “injury prone” As to Zach Brown, I can’t pretend to know enough about him to rate him.
This scale works perfectly for URFAs because they are known commodities. When talking the draft… you are rating what you EXPECT to get. With veteran free agents, you know what you are getting. I would say it would be smart pre-draft to rate the free agent options and draft prospects with this system. If you can adequately fill a need in free agency before the draft (and don’t expect you can get better in the draft), then this is a huge help.
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I Would Rate UNC OLB Zach Brown At An 8.5 Or 9 & Many Mock Drafts Have Him Going Around #10
Zach Brown (6-2, 225-230, 4.41 to a 4.48-40) has unique speed for a LB, reportedly even running a 4.29-40 in 2009, allowing him to be a good pass rusher as well. I believe he will play at around 230-235 in the NFL, making him a great replacement for Thomas Davis at WLB, but it’s just a question of if the Panthers want a 4-3 WLB, or a pass rushing 3-4 OLB.
by PanthersRoar on Oct 20, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
If he is running a 4.29, or something even resemling that, it makes him a clear 9
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I Believe The 4.41-40 )r Mid 4.4's Is Closer To Brown's Real Speed
Bengals OLB Dantay Moch (6-1, 248) reportedly ran around a 4.26-40 for the National Scouting Service in the summer of 2010, but he only ran a 4.44-40 at the Combine.
by PanthersRoar on Oct 20, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Regardless, any LB running a 40 under 4.5 is a special talent
Unless they are lacking in other key skills linebackers need.
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OT in 2013
My only concern with taking Kalil in this draft is, depending on which juniors/sophomore offensive linemen come out this year, the 2013 year could be a real special year for offensive linemen, yet I still don’t see any great DTs/OLBs. If we could hold off on an early choice and draft back and get a good (but not top 10) DT & OLB, then get a great OT in mid-late 1st round next year, that would be best to me.
Of course, that all depends on who declares for the draft this year. I mean, Kalil is still a junior at this point and while I highly doubt he will stay in school, it is always a possibility, as it is for the rest of the OTs coming out this and next year.
I still say if we pick in the top 3, and Justin Blackmon is sitting there we just have to take him. I have a great feeling about Byron bell and I think if he works out we can just sign a o lineman in FA for depth.
Lmao speaking of WRs, has anyone seen Nanee’s picture on his Wikipedia profile? http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legedu_Naanee I swear someone on here had to be the one that added that pic. With a pic like that who needs any words in the ‘description’ section?
by PantherTrain on Oct 20, 2011 10:12 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
His wiki pic= the story of his career
by PantherTrain on Oct 20, 2011 10:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's classic Naanee!
"If I know that you like Pancakes on Tuesdays, I might as well bring you the syrup" -Cam Newton
by Son of a Newton on Oct 20, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Not trying to be the guy with no sense of humor...
But to be fair, Naanee has played better the last two weeks.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
He has.
And if this is the beginning of him “getting it” then by all means he should continue as WR2. Just to this point, I feel like we aren’t giving LaFell the looks he deserves.
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Lafell had a big 3rd down conversion last week.
And yes, he has been very productive and efficient with the snaps he’s earned. I think the only thing holding sticks back is he isn’t quite comfortable with the system. I have no other explanation as to why his playing time has been so scarce.
The one thing I can point to schematically has been our penchant for lining up RBs, FBs and TEs out wide so we can potentially move them back to the backfield if the defense shows a DB heavy set. While I like the versatility of this, we rarely—if ever actually move them back in to run the ball, so I’m not sure why we continue to do it so much. I’d like us to use a 3rd WR more than we do, instead of sending Felton out wide where he is essentially useless unless he is blocking downfield for a screen or what not.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
Nail on the head
On both points.
I hope the plan is that LaFell becomes the 2 after he gets the system down. Naanee is obviously the most experienced of the bunch.
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Well, you're using your own system...
Name it what you will. I’ll call it PTTD, PantherTrain Throwing Darts
But if you go by DVI, I rate Blackmon with a PQ of 9, and Jefferey with a PQ of 8 (although I think Jefferey is a better fit due to his size)
The TS at WR is 6 (taking WRs as a whole), giving Blackmon a DVI of 15 and Jefferey 14.
Chances are, there will be a DT with a DVI of 16 or better due to our extreme need there, and therefore at best, WR is the 3rd priority.
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Even if you don't use your formula...picking a WR over an OL or DT is foolish.
We have the #3 offense in the league with Smitty, Naanee, LaFell, and our two TE’s.
We still have David Gettis who is a #2 and a potential #1.
Blackmon (or Jeffery) is a luxury. We have to pick based on need and BPA…we can’t afford luxury picks this year.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
That was kind of my take on picking AJ Green or Julio Jones over a QB/DL/OL in the last draft.
Made the ‘living in a single-wide driving a Lambo’ analogy a few too many times, I’m sure.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
That analogy is exactly what picking a WR would be.
The current Carolina Panthers live in a single-wide trailer in a trailer park*. We can’t afford to buy a Ferrari…we’ve got to buy a house first.
*-Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
'Course not.
It is what it is. We don’t judge.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
For the record, we now have the #5 offense
"If I know that you like Pancakes on Tuesdays, I might as well bring you the syrup" -Cam Newton
by Son of a Newton on Oct 20, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough...
Still doesn’t change the fact that WR is a luxury.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
Agreed
"If I know that you like Pancakes on Tuesdays, I might as well bring you the syrup" -Cam Newton
by Son of a Newton on Oct 20, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Not supporting
NewtoniumPanther err, PantherTrain just stimulating conversation.. Do you think the need of all positions is treated equally? For instance, 1st pick of last year was Cam Newton’s DVI greater than say Dareus? I’d say they were probably pretty close (mainly because Cam had such a short history of work to analyze) but that QB became the bigger need based on the importance of the position. Based on that, I’d say that OL or DT would be a much bigger need than WR anyways.
I think DT would be the bigger need in this draft worthy of maybe adding +1 or +2 to DVI which would still mean Kalil remains the best option. Any of that make sense? It did in my head….
"One step at a time"
Looking back at last year from memory, here is where we sat
Our TS at QB was a definite 10. We didn’t have a serviceable starter or a future.
Our TS at DT was a 9, just like this year.
Our TS at WR was a 5, meaning our situation has gotten a little worse. Going in everyone was convinced Gettis is the legit #1 and Smitty’s heir, now we are not quite as sure of that statement.
Our TS at CB2 was a 4, as the perception is that Captain is a serviceable #2 corner, but you’d rather have better.
So, we will now go with the biggest names at those positions linked to us and their PQ…
at QB: Andrew Luck – 10, Cam Newton – 9 (Some might say he was unproven making him a 7, but he won a Heisman and NC, that is proven)
at DT: Marcel Dareus – 9, Nick Fairley – 8 (Same argument as Newton, he won a NC and Lombardi trophy, good enough for me)
at WR: A.J. Green – 10, Julio Jones – 9
at CB: Patrick Peterson – 9, Prince Amukamara – 8
Now we add PQ to TS, to get DVI
at QB: Andrew Luck – 20 – did not declare, Cam Newton – 19
at DT: Marcel Dareus – 18, Nick Fairley – 17
at WR: A.J. Green – 15, Julio Jones – 14
at CB: Patrick Peterson – 13, Prince Amukamara – 12
Therefore… DVI supports our draft day decision to pick Cam Newton. Had the front office not been convinced by Cam Newton’s track record, they’d have assigned him PQ of 7, giving him DVI 17, and we would have drafted Dareus.
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I dunno tater...we might have still taken Cam even if his DVI were 1 point less than Dareus.
Because Cam is a QB — the most important player on the field.
Not to try and over-complicate it, but I wonder if some kind of weight system can be applied to this formula, where players get more or less value added in based on their position.
For example: If Newton would have been a 17 instead of a 19, and Dareus was an 18 based on the current formula, couldn’t we add a multiplier to each position? Like QB’s get a 3x the DVI, OT’s get 2.5x the DVI, etc. to help eliminate decisions like “we should take a DT because he has one more point than the QB”?
Just a thought…
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
My only argument, is where does it stop?
A lot of modifiers have been suggested, and I like them… the DVI system is supposed to be simple and give an idea of what the organization might do.
And quite frankly, it NAILED it, based on last year.
Cam Newton goes first, a pair of DTs go second and third, a high PQ corner that fell a bit goes fourth ahead of a lower PQ WR at 5th. Our 4 biggest needs balanced perfectly with BPA.
I think this system leaves itself open to more detail, and I will try and take it there, leaving this as a simpliefied “overview” version. I see an “ADVI” Adjusted Draft Value Index in the future that has modifiers to TS for positional value and positional experience, and i see modifiers to PQ that come from injury history and character issues.
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Have you thought about expanding this to trading up and/or down?
For instance, does a PV of 18 warrant trading up? What if the best PV is a 14? Does this mean should we trade down out of that spot? I love the thought of putting a value on trades.
by Scotch on the Prowl on Oct 20, 2011 10:55 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
It would be difficult, but I guess it is possible.
a DVI of 18 or greater probably warrants a trade up, as that means one of these things are occuring for sure.
Your TS is 10, meaning your need is desperate and there is a PQ of 8 available, which means you are getting a solid viable starter on the spot, even if he isn’t a special talent.
Your TS is 9, meaning you’re fairly desperate, and there is a PQ of 10 or 9 available. You have a chance to cement yourself a hopeful pro bowler or hall of famer by trading up.
Your TS is 8, meaning you have an OK starter who may be getting old or injury prone, but need a talent upgrade. A PQ of 10 is available. If you are a team who is just looking to take that last step to make a super Bowl run, you pull the trigger on a big trade up. Even if say a 9 or 8 is available, you might still consider it.
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What abou FA who are some good lineman set to be free agents we could look at?
by PantherTrain on Oct 20, 2011 11:49 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I don't know if any are coming available with a PQ higher than Kalil.
No one is letting their franchise LT walk. Best we could do is probably a proven servicable talent, PQ of 5. Even if you bump them up to a 6 for being a known commodity, Kalil still represents a better opportunity.
Now, WR on the other hand… it IS possible we see some big names hit the open market, which due to their experience and proven production, will give them PQs higher than Blackmon and Jefferey.
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This.
PT….take my adivce: don’t get your hopes up for Blackmon. I sincerely doubt we draft him, because we have too many needs in too many other places that come before WR.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
to that I respond
Don’t get your hopes up on Kalil. It is a pick that makes very little sense in the scope of things. There is a very real likelihood that we take a WR in the first round if Smith plans to retire at the end of his contract and a DT or LB at the top of the 2nd (due to better value placement). As I’ve stated before, having a $30million offensive line in front of a mobile and elusive QB is flat out excess and hurts other areas of the team. Gross easily has another four years at LT before we need his replacement, and moving him to RT is like forcing Goodson to be a power back.
The reason we have a dearth of talent at specific positions is due to wanton neglect for them in the early rounds of the draft. We haven’t drafted a DT in the 2nd round or higher since Kris, and busted on our only high-pick WR in a decade with Jarrett. Smith is the exception standout, not the rule. We’ve drafted two DEs, two LBs, 1 CB, two RBs, two OTs, and one QB since 2002 with our first pick. Conveniently, those are all strengths on this team. You don’t improve the strongest piece of your team with a top 5 pick when teams are putting up 30 on you and you’re about to be out your #1 WR. We have the best offensive line in the NFCS and one of the top ten in the league. Chewbacca: it doesn’t make sense!
our best hope for this draft is that a DT distinguishes himself by draft time warranting him being our 1st round selection
DVI 17 should be enough to get that, which means a PQ of 8. Someone we can reasonably expect to be an immediate viable starter, even if they never reach a pro bowl.
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(I don’t have my hopes up on Kalil.)
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
I get where you’re coming from re: your position of not drafting an OT when we have a great OL, but my only thing is that when you have the opportunity to draft a future franchise LT when your LT has 5 years or less left in the tank, you almost have to take it because the kind of LT’s like Kalil don’t come around that often.
I personally feel that the only offensive player we should pick is Kalil, otherwise our first three or four picks should all be defense, because that’s our biggest area of need. If we need to pick up a WR just to kick the tires on someone, I’d like to see that done in the later rounds because to me picking a 1st round WR is buying a Ferrari while living in a trailer.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
Tater knows where I'm going with this...
Who is that WR we should be looking at later in the draft?:)
"One step at a time"
Brian Quick!
I don't always fail, but when I do...
I do it awesomely.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Oct 20, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Only if we convert him to a QB after we draft him
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
LOL
I don't always fail, but when I do...
I do it awesomely.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Oct 20, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL well done.
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On a semi-serious note, did you ever confirm if he was Mike Quick’s son?
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
Still nothing to confirm or deny it.
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Here's A Shocker To Everyone But "BBA", WalterFootball.com's New Mock Draft Has App St. WR Brian Quick At #63
by PanthersRoar on Oct 20, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
No shocker to me.
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No worries...
No one would dare give you the shocker.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
But what if he asks for it?
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
I thought that was between you and him?
I don't always fail, but when I do...
I do it awesomely.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Oct 21, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
LOL
BW’s perceived sexual orientation has had a rough go the last two days.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
Yeah, I don't see too many normies saying that we WILL draft him.
I see more people saying we SHOULD draft him IF he’s there when we pick.
If I had to guess, he most likely won’t be there when we pick…but this isn’t the first time we’ve talked over a moot point ad naseum.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
When have we ever talked about ANYTHING ad nauseam?
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
by BW Smith on Oct 20, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Hm. I can't think of any...
VS
;-)
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
Nice!
I really like this… I bet people who do Fantasy Football could use such a system too. I personally would really like to see a sample, of what I’m sure is a complicated system, that the GMs, Coaches, etc. use for drafts and trades.
The DVI is Awesome. Here is a suggestion
This DVI is awesome, whether you tweak it or not. But how about adding this twist? Some positions are more important than others!
Your rating system should allow us to ensure that a best in a generation Long Snapper is never rated where it looks like we take him in the early rounds. QB, CB, DL, WR, and OT are more important positions and harder to find skill sets.
More important to me as a Panther fan, some positions are more important to the Panthers than other teams, and some are less important. I think that the Offensive Tackle is far more critical to other teams because we have a mobile and elusive QB. I am not saying that the position is no longer important, but I would have said it was far more important in the Delhomme/Fox offense than it is in the Newton/Rivera offense.
What do you think aboiut rating the importance of a position to the team?
Kind of addressed that a little but above^^
The DVI is meant to be simple and easy to read. Even though we can make a case that some areas are less relevant to our team (say a LS or a LT) it’s not really worth adding in to how we calculate the DVI because it would just make it more complicated and so far it was accurate just the way it is. Good point though, there is a conversation above about position importance (OL, WR & DT). It’ll mostly depend on how the rest of the season shakes out for certain players.
"One step at a time"
Here Is A Positional Value Ranking From WalterFootball.com
WalterFootball.com breaks down positional value into 6 levels, and here the are.
1. QB
2. OLT, RDE (the best pass rushing DE), Pass Rushing LB, and CB
3. DT and #1 WR
4. S, NT, LDE, and 4-3 MLB
5. #2 WR, 3-4 DE, WLB, 3-4 ILB, G/C, TE, and #3 WR
6. SLB, K, and P
Here’s the link (I hope it works, it’s over a year old, and I don’t think the writer Matt McGuire is still with them)) to the story, which goes into much greater depth explaning these values.
http:walterfootball.com/positionalvaluepyramidmatt.php
by PanthersRoar on Oct 20, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
SLB is 6th with the kickers because he's usually the one who comes off the field for the nickel corner.
What a lot of teams look for now is a SLB who can instead put a hand down, and they’ll have their fattest DT waddle over to the sideline for the 3rd corner. The DE who the SLB is replacing moves inside to replace the DT.
Von Miller is a perfect example.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
Where are the RBs?
I put them at 5, then probably sneak in FB with 6.
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This chart is going to look different for every team league wide, except at QB.
My aim is to create a metric that could apply league wide, with the subjectivity of ratings being the maneuvering room that each team will need.
I could see in a more advanced metric, adding to the TS rating, since emphasis on need is more on the team than the player… as follows:
+2 TS for: QB
+1 TS for: OLT, Pass Rushing DE, and CB1
-1 TS for: K, P, FB, WR3, CB3
+0 TS for everyone else.
My reasoning, league-wide, every team will tell you that you need that franchise QB to win a super bowl in the modern NFL. He just had to be good, he doesn’t have to be great. Therefore a compensation of 2 TS is in order. which would put a lot more QBs on the board in early rounds. Every team will also agree you need a franchise LT to protect said QB, an elite pass rusher, and a shutdown corner. However, you probably won’t win a super bowl without the QB. So that gives those key spots a +1. Kickers, Punters, Fullbacks, slot WRs, and nickel corners are all draft luxuries which have all gone very late in drafts historically regardless of talent so they get a -1. Everyone else, gets no change.
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I should also say...
I was tempted to put RB at -1, but I don’t think all teams could agree with that
coughcoughDENVERcough
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It seems like there are an abundance of prospects this year who fight that profile.
We may see a mid-round pick (4th, since we don’t have a 3rd) dedicated to a guy like that who maybe needs some refinement.
"Between you, me and the wall here, I had a bit of a doozy myself last night. Get this: A corn-fed harvest mouse, a hooker, a nun, a Flemish peasant woman, whips, chains, whistles yo-yo's, a circus midget. My grandmother riding by on a bicycle giving me the finger, and a duck! Now, I don't know 'bout you...Are you crying?"
Very well done Tater!
I could see this being set as the new standard for draft mocks. Makes perfect sense, simple (even with +1 for QB -1 injury or whatever). Love it, and can’t wait to see this put to good use in March.
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by Thee Steve Johnson on Oct 20, 2011 4:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
tater, this is awesome
makes perfect sense. i am gonna use this once the draft comes around to analyze who we should draft and what not. awesome job. rec’d
"The way y'all are lollygaggin around here with them picks and them shovels, you'd think it was 120 degrees...can't be more than 114."
by SouthernPanther on Oct 20, 2011 7:17 PM EDT reply actions
Props Tater, I like this.
But I still disagree with WR being a need. Smitty has shown be enough to think he has a minimum of 3 years left. And between Gettis and Lafell, I thin there’s a pretty high probability that one of them at minimum develops into a legitimate #2, if not a #1 (this would be Gettis). As such, I think we can hold off for at least a year or two before we really need a WR.
Plus, I think WR is probably the position where you are most likely to find a dud in the first and a gem later on (if that make sense).
Tater this system is awesome!
Simple but effective, great work man.
by Swamp Panther on Oct 21, 2011 9:59 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
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