Adam Schefter talks no.1 pick, Andrew Luck, trading the pick and the Carolina Panthers

This morning NFL insider Adam Schefter was on ESPN radio's "Mike and Mike in the Morning" where he discussed a variety of NFL situations and scenarios. Talk turned to the NFL draft Schefter was quick to discuss the Carolina Panthers specifically.

Schefter went on the record to say he does not think there is any way the Panthers trade the #1 provided Andrew Luck enters the draft. He compared trading Luck and how it would be looked at historically like the Baltimore Colts trading John Elway to the Broncos. Granted, that situation is likely to be very different because Elway refused to play for the Colts, and as it stands there is not a single indication Andrew Luck would do the same with the Panthers, and honestly if you know anything about the kid you know this isn't going to happen.

As it stands none of us know if Luck will be a John Elway-esque talent, however, if we're working under that assumption then is there any price that could convince the Panthers to pass on taking Luck? Again, Schefter didn't think so, but when pressed he gave an outline of what the STARTING price would be for any of three interested teams (Denver, Buffalo and San Francisco) to move up and trade with Carolina. 

That price, and an outline of what it would net the Panthers... after the jump

Keep in mind that this is not an absolute, it's not what has been offered, or what will be offered... we simply don't know. Schefter said the price wouldn't be just high, it would be exorbitant based on the fact belief is Andrew Luck is a true franchise quarterback. 

 

That price: Starting at three 1st round picks

 

Yes, you read that correctly. Presumably 1st round picks in 2011, 2012 and 2013 plus additional compensation based likely on who was trading up. Superficially that sounds both insane and insanely attractive, but is it? 

For the purpose of this comparison we're going to have to put our imagination hats on and assume for a second that Andrew Luck is as good as advertised. If you can't handle that then hit 'back' on your browser... no need to read on, no need to comment. Fact is, we need to have a firm universal level to have this discussion. 

 

So we have our first condition: Andrew Luck is a true franchise QB

 

Then we come to the second element: How high will these picks be? Well, Denver picks #2 overall, Buffalo #3 and San Francisco #7. That's an average of #4 overall, and based on the fact most teams tend to improve naturally over time I think it's fair to imagine the resulting picks being a #4 in 2011 and #6 in 2012 and a #8 in 2013.

 

So we have our second condition: #4, #6 and #8 overall picks.

 

We now move into the third phase, analysis. Looking at a three year span from 1999-2010 here is what the projected picks would have yielded: 

 

1999-2001: RB Edgerrin James, DT Corey Simon, WR David Terrell

2002-2004: OT Mike Williams, DT Jonathan Sullivan, CB DeAngelo Hall

2005-2007: RB Cedric Benson, TE Vernon Davis, DE Jamaal Anderson

2008-2010: RB Darren McFadden, LB Aaron Curry, LB Rolando McClain

 

Granted, I know there are severe flaws with this kind of comparison. I understand there are team needs, different team scouting etc. but I feel this arbitrary method is far fairer than going through three concecutive drafts and cherry picking successful players who could have been taken. Of all the above 12 picks only Rolando McClain was considered a reach at all, every other player was considered a good pick at their position.

Based on our first condition: That Andrew Luck will be a franchise QB and now that we have a basis for what kind of players could be taken what do you think? 

Is there any price worth moving out of #1 if Andrew Luck declares?

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