My "Magnificent" Pre-Season Prognotistications for 2010

Once upon a time, a brash and confident fellow figured he could predict the success of a team's season by examining the scoring statistics from the prior season.  Using his extreme analytical skills and football acumen, he was able to take offensive, defensive, and special teams' performances for the Panthers in 2009, factor in probable changes, and derive the likely scoring differential for the 2010 Panthers. 

Anyway, this fellow originally posted his analysis on another site (this was before he realized that CSR's the only Panthers blog worth reading), and there were a couple of Falcon fans that actually wanted to dispute his conclusions.  This led to quite a series of comments that you can read here, if you like.

The picture shown here gives a pretty good indication of how close this guy came to getting it right.  It seems no matter how you cook it, or how much gravy you use, crow still tastes like crap.

via blogtown.portlandmercury.com

1240605367-eating_crow_medium

BUT, it's not a Fail, if you learn something.  This fellow learned that year-over-year scoring stats are not a good predictor of the future.  In fact, making predictions in the NFL is an almost futile endeavor.  Does that mean he'll stop trying?  Nope, because it's what we do.  But in the end, almost certainly, "eating crow" becomes like Aunt Bea's pickles (aka, kerosene cucumbers).  The only solution is "learn to love 'em."

Note: I have included the actual 2010 statistics for comparisons sake as well. Continue reading if you care... or, if you dare!  

 Posted by Rick Bates on June 12, 2010

I wanted to present a post that's more focused on team performance.  To do so, I have chosen to utilize '09 average Points Scored and Points Allowed per game as a benchmark to start from.  I've also included our abysmal special teams ranking as an important factor.  Based on the '09 team as compared to what we know about the '10 team, I'm making some admittedly arbitrary guesses on how things will play out.  I hope you enjoy what lies below the line. (Should that have read the things we think we think we might think we know? -- Aghh, King, get outta my head)

009 Panthers Points Scored: 

Rk

Pts/G

TotPts

Pts/G

Rsh

Rec

PRet

KRet

INT

FUM

Blk FG

Blk Pnt

XPM

FGM

SFTY

2-PT

21

19.7

315

19.7

18

16

0

0

1

0

0

0

31

22

2

2

 

Added 1/29/2012:

 

Scoring Offense 2010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rk

Pts/G

TotPts

Pts/G

Rsh

Rec

Pret

Kret

Int

Fum

Blk FG

Blk Pnt

XPM

FGM

SFTY

2-PT

32

12.2

192

12.2

7

9

0

0

1

0

0

0

17

25

1

0

 

2009 Panthers Points Allowed: 

Rk

Pts/G

TotPts

Pts/G

Rsh

Rec

PRet

KRet

INT

FUM

Blk FG

Blk Pnt

XPM

FGM

SFTY

2-PT

9

19.2

308

19.2

15

14

1

1

3

2

0

0

33

19

0

1

Added 1/29/2012:

 

Scoring Defense 2010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rk

Pts/G

TotPts

Pts/G

Rsh

Rec

Pret

Kret

Int

Fum

Blk FG

Blk Pnt

XPM

FGM

SFTY

2-PT

26

25.5

408

25.5

20

19

1

0

5

1

0

0

45

29

0

0

 

 

 Special Teams (ugh): By RICK GOSSELIN / The Dallas Morning News

The NFL's 32 teams are ranked in 22 kicking-game categories and assigned points according to their standing in each category (one for the best through 32 for the worst). This is a composite score for those categories:

      32.  Carolina Panthers   473 points   (#1 was Cleveland at 215.5 points)

Added 1/29/2012:

While Gosselin’s rankings aren’t out yet, it is expected we’ll be in the middle of the pack (Football Outsiders has us at 19th)

I think there's a lot to be gleaned from these numbers.  First, I think the Panthers will fare much, much better on special teams.   If you look at the stats above, you'll see the Panthers had no returns for scores, but allowed a PR and a KR.  Even more importantly will be improved starting field position on both sides.  I'm going to guess the difference to be 2 points on both the Scored and Allowed columns, resulting in adjusted Points Scored of 21.7 and Points Allowed of 17.2.

Looking now at the Pick-6's and Fumbles Returned, you'll see we had 3 pick-6's and 2 fumbles returned against, compared to the single pick-6 scored by Peppers.  Most agree that offensively we have taken a step forward (especially at QB). I'm going to award a conservative 2 points per game scored by the offense, if for no other reason than we should have the ball more simply by not turning it over so much (Jake).  Points Scored 23.7

Reducing the turnovers against, including those for scores, one could argue that Points Allowed will go down even more.  However, given the question marks at DL and the serious injury to a key LB, I don't feel inclined to prognosticate on this one, so I'll call it a wash.

So the 2010 final tally by my admittedly arbitrary predictions: Points Scored 23.7, Points Allowed 17.2 for an avg differential of +6.5.

Added 1/29/2012:

Actual Points Scored 12.2, Points Allowed 25.5 for an avg differential of minus 13.3

To provide a little added perspective, New Orleans in '09 had a differential of +10.6, Indy was +6.8, Minn. was +9.9, Dallas was +7.0.

I hope you guys will have fun with this, and maybe it'll help ease the pain of a bad week.  Feel free to politlely contradict any of my guesses (yeah, like I need to say that here).  You could even argue that the team that outscores his opponent doesn't always win -- that would be fun (but when you're looking at the avg. differential, it is true).  I would really enjoy reading how you guys would apply your own beliefs against the baseline numbers, and whether you think it translates to a playoff run or better.  Personally, I'm still thinking playoffs.

GO PANTHERS!!!

In conclusion, all I have to say about that is this.  If we can drop that far in one season, then by all that is Holy we should be able to improve by just as much in 2011!

GO PANTHERS???

In This Article

Teams
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Cat Scratch Reader

You must be a member of Cat Scratch Reader to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Cat Scratch Reader. You should read them.

Join Cat Scratch Reader

You must be a member of Cat Scratch Reader to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Cat Scratch Reader. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker