There's Value in Fantasy Mock Drafts
by Jaxon on Aug 24, 2010 12:30 AM EDT
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PrintIf you know your draft position for an upcoming draft I find it useful to participate in a couple mock drafts at that position just to see how things shake out at that spot.You first have to hope you get other mock drafters that are serious about it. I started one earlier and the guy with the #1 pick took Tim Tebow. I dropped out after my first pick; that guy is obviously going to skew the results. I hope if you are going to bother doing a mock that you will at least take it half serious.
I just completed one using the CBS Sportsline.com Mock draft tool and here's my starting line-up from the #8 slot:
Player Position Round Drafted Overall Pick Projected Fantasy Points Peyton Manning QB 1 8 347 Ryan Grant RB 3 28 166 DeAngelo Williams RB 2 13 181 Jeremy Maclin WR 10 93 110 Steve Smith WR 4 33 141 Hines Ward WR 6 53 131 Visanthe Shiancoe TE 7 68 105 Lawrence Tynes K 13 128 125 Packers DST 8 73 192.5
So is this really who I might take in my real draft this weekend? Maybe! But let's analyze it anyway to see what we can take from it...after the jump...
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So here's my thoughts, right or wrong:
- I still like taking a top QB late 1st round. Brees was already gone so Manning was my 2nd choice at QB
- I waited until the 4th round to take a WR and I think I waited too long...by the time the 6th round rolled around there weren't many choice WRs left
- What was in abundance in the 6th round was decent RB's...maybe I'll go WR in the 3rd round to get a better one and wait for a 2nd RB
- The top TEs always seem to go too early. Gates went in the 4th round. Same with the top defenses.
- Manning, D-Will & Grant seems like a pretty good top 3. I could have had Stewart later in the 4th or 5th I think but passed. I don't like the idea of having both but maybe someone out there disagrees. Reasoning?
- Its the Giants Steve Smith I selected, not ours. 89 was already gone (as if I would take the Giants version over our Smith!)
- TE Siancoe is a much safer pick with Favre coming back. He's a solid TE for a 7th round pick. He had 11 TDs last season
- I took the Packers D mainly to get in on a run on DSTs. I'm not that sold on them but I know they have a good schedule. I always draft at least two DSTs so I can play the match-ups.
- Look at the projected point difference between my 4th round WR and my 10th rounder...30 points, or less than 2 pts per game. Sure I have lost games by a single point but still, that pick is coming 6 rounds later. Seems to emphasize going top WR early.
- Would you take a WR in the 1st round?
- Would you trust Tynes as your kicker. Seems he had some problems last year. On the other hand, the Giants o-line is struggling. I'm thinking they can move the ball but might stall leading to more FG opportunities.
Anyone else want to share draft day tips? Do you like the starting line-up above?
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Unless it's Peyton or Brees I never go QB in the firsty round
If I’m playing in a PPR league I’ll also change how I value RBs to one’s who catch a lot, and maybe even take a receiver 1st round.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
I would add Rodgers to that list but that is it
I’m still torn on what to do…I guess we shall see how it unfolds
Last year I had a ton of sleepers... this year, not so much
I picked up Ray Rice in the 2nd round last year after getting Steven Jackson in the first… it was a good year.
I always have an eye for sophomore running backs, but realistically I’m not confident enough in Moreno, Greene or McCoy to take them in the 2nd round… hmmm
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Thats funny
I picked up Ray Rice in the first round and Steven Jackson in the 2nd round this year.
Founding Member of the Unofficial LaFan Club, #11 Brandon LaFell
by John Chilton on Aug 24, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I had 4th overall pick out of 10
And actually yahoo wouldn’t let me log in to my draft and I missed my first pick but auto drafted Ray Rice. The only non RBs that went in the first were Brees and Peyton and Andre Johnson. But then the first three picks of the 2nd round were non RBs (Moss, Rodgers, Wayne) then Mendenhall (?) then D-Lo and Jackson fell to me. So yeah little bit of both.
Founding Member of the Unofficial LaFan Club, #11 Brandon LaFell
by John Chilton on Aug 24, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
but I think we had at least 4 auto drafters
and they just drafted by yahoo rankings O.o
Founding Member of the Unofficial LaFan Club, #11 Brandon LaFell
by John Chilton on Aug 24, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
this is my team this year in my main league
1. (5) Ray Rice RB
2. (16) Steven Jackson RB
3. (25) Tony Romo QB
4. (36) Anquan Boldin WR
5. (45) Jason Witten TE
6. (56) Vincent Jackson WR
7. (65) Wes Welker WR
8. (76) Stephen Gostkowski K
9. (85) Matt Ryan QB
10. (96) Dez Bryant WR
11. (105) C.J. Spiller RB
12. (116) Braylon Edwards WR
13. (125) Reggie Bush RB
14. (136) Darren Sproles RB
15. (145) Matt Moore QB
16. (156) Carolina DEF
A little bit of homerism at the end but if our Defense keeps it up it would be wise for all of us to pick them up.
Founding Member of the Unofficial LaFan Club, #11 Brandon LaFell
by John Chilton on Aug 24, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i might get screwed on VJack tho...
Founding Member of the Unofficial LaFan Club, #11 Brandon LaFell
by John Chilton on Aug 24, 2010 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
hate to post 5 times in a row...
but I guess I need put a (no-homo) in there.
Founding Member of the Unofficial LaFan Club, #11 Brandon LaFell
by John Chilton on Aug 24, 2010 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Not bad...
Looks early for a kicker in the 8th round…usually you can get a top K in the 10th. If you swapped the K and DST picks you could have had a good D. So am I dogging the Panthers D? Well I would be calling them a major sleeper if the offense wasn’t playing so poorly. Carolina D will go undrafted in most leagues.
yeah my thinking was Gostkowski put up a whole bunch of points
a few years back and I think the Pats offense will be pretty potent this year. I had no idea our D was going to play as well as they have so far it was my last pic and I needed a D. In our scoring system if you allow over 10 points, and don’t get any defensive touchdowns, you only get a point for a sack and one for a safety so it seems I never receive many points from my D so I don’t worry about that position as much.
Founding Member of the Unofficial LaFan Club, #11 Brandon LaFell
by John Chilton on Aug 24, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry
1 point for sack, 1 for interception, 2 for safety.
Founding Member of the Unofficial LaFan Club, #11 Brandon LaFell
by John Chilton on Aug 24, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Andre Johnson and Randy Moss
are the only receivers i’ll take in the first round. I still dont trust Kevin Kolb so I just cant get myself to pick any Eagle receivers except for Desean Jackson if hes available at a good place and Hines Ward’s production will get hurt by Big Ben’s suspension, but who knows.
I also dont like to draft QB’s until the 4th, I just dont see much of a difference between number one and number 5 or 6. And since most teams only need one top 10 QB there is much less of a demand then say RB’s or WR’s where you would like to have 2 or 3 quality guys.
"The game of life is a lot like football. You have to tackle your problems, block your fears, and score your points when you get the opportunity." - Lewis Grizzard
Smith and Maclin both have byes in week 8. Hope you stashed a couple of WRs
on the bench. But then, we’ll be all over the waiver wire by then anyway.
Where there’s a will… I want to be in it.
Good catch...I did see that...after I drafted Maclin
You’ve got to watch the Bye week thing or you can sandpaper your own ass…ie both Rb’s on a bye the same week.
It was just off the top of my head. I'm not doing any research or anything :-)
Where there’s a will… I want to be in it.
yeah right....but I'll warn you
you don’t want my cheat sheet. I haven’t won a league since 2003. Since ‘96 I’m about 2-10 in finals. I play 2 to 3 leagues a year so not so good!
How many teams are in your league?
Is the league a PPR? Does the league award return yards for individual players?
With the NFL becoming more “pass happy”, I feel that the gap between WR’s and RB’s has almost disappeared. QB’s are also more valuable now than they were 5 years ago. Pass catching RB’s (Ray Rice, Bryan Westbrook 2 yrs ago, etc) still have an advantage over WR1’s in a PPR league. Without the point per reception, they are quite comparable.
PPR? meaning performance?
Yeah but its still easier for a WR to have a bad week than a RB but I hear what you are saying.
i read some article somewhere that said not to use high picks on QBs
the payoff between Tier 1 (Manning, Brees, Rodgers) and Tier 2 is not worth the draft position
i don’t get the hype behind greene and mendenhall… i feel pretty sure they’ll be fantasy busts. the best value RB is going to be Jamaal Charles, since he has freaky speed and Thomas Jones won’t take away too many TDs
a really dependable late-round WR: TJ Houshmanzadeh (i hope i spelled it right) – he has great hands, Hasselbeck will rebound, they have a great new LT, Pete Carroll offenses are always kind to WRs, and the offense has little other options (on that note, John Carlson is a great TE to also pick up later)
Well thanks Vitzeng
So your bullish on the Sea Chickens huh? But what if your picking 8th? The top tier RB’s are gone…I could still get a good RB at #12. Honestly for me as I look at the draft there seems to be tons of RB’s on the 2nd and 3rd tier. Charles is a good example. I’m just saying…not sure I’ll follow what I’m selling. ;)
if i'm picking at 7 or 8, I'm just going for Andre Johnson
matt schaub cannot resist throwing to him all the time and for good reason too
Drafts
If I have the 6th pick or higher, I’m definitely going for Aaron Rodgers or Andre Johnson. Rodgers is about the only QB I would take in the first round. Viable RB’s can be found anwhere from the 1st round to the 5th round. Now if I’m picking #1-5 it would be a different story…Johnson, Peterson, Rice, Jones-Drew and Gore (sorry…not sold on Turner) are the real deal for fantasy RB’s. As for QB’s…I’m telling you now (like everybody else is), I think Joe Flacco is going to have a monster year! I have targeted him in every mock draft and usually end up with him in the 8th round or so.
As for your draft above…let’s see…stud QB, 2 stud RB’s, 3 decent WR’s, stud TE (now that Favre is back…again)…Kickers and D/ST’s I usually rotate weekly depending on matchups. There doesn’t seem to be a dominating defense that you can rely on every week anymore. I would grade your draft a B…good luck in the real one!
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