Let's Talk Fantasy Football Top 10 Player Rankings
by Jaxon on Jul 27, 2010 3:00 PM EDT
33 comments
et’s talk Fantasy Football drafting strategy CSR fans. Below is the top 10 ranked players by CSBSports.com writers Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard. Honestly I’ve never heard of these guys but they must be CSBSports.com resident gurus for a reason. Maybe not but I’m wondering how does a guy get such a sweet gig? But I digress…
I always check the bios of guru’s to see if there is any obvious bias. Neither played professionally but there is some college bias to consider. Eisenberg is a Gator and Richard a Hurricane so we can be assured these guys know about players from those schools. I don’t see anything in this particular list that suggests bias though.
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Rank |
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1 |
Chris Johnson |
Chris Johnson |
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2 |
Adrian Petersen |
Adrian Petersen |
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3 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
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4 |
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5 |
Michael Turner |
Ray Rice |
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6 |
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7 |
Frank Gore |
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8 |
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9 |
Steven Jackson |
Steven Jackson |
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10 |
Drew Brees |
My first thought as I look at this list (and many other lists for that matter) is that last year’s top scoring player Aaron Rodgers doesn’t show up until #7 and doesn’t even appear on the other list. In fact the top 11 QB’s scored more than last year’s #1 RB Chris Johnson. So why is the top 10 on both lists so devoid of QB’s? Injury risk? Potential for inconsistency from week to week? Neither of those reasons would pull me off of one of the top QB’s....more after the jump...
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So who exactly is the top QB for 2010? That is a tough call to say the least. Rodgers has all his weapons back and both Brees and Manning are still in their prime and full of weapons in a passing offense. Most times I turn to strength (ease) of schedule to break ties. Using that criterion to break the ties the order is Rodgers (4), Manning (6) and Brees (15). Also note that McNabb (1) and Romo (3) have favorable schedules making them 2nd tier QB’s.
Now looking at the order of the RB’s it’s hard to argue with Johnson at the top, outside of the fact that the top rated player rarely finishes the season on top. Petersen, Jones-Drew, Turner and Rice should all have nice seasons so you can’t go wrong with any of them. Petersen worries me with the fumbles and if Brett Favre doesn’t return that might impact him. You could say that without Favre he might get more carries but then teams might also stack the line to stop him.
Turner has an injury history but has since lost weight and appears in the best shape of his life. I’m very bullish on Turner this season this a pretty good Falcons o-line. The Ravens have added additional weapons to their offense and appear intent on passing more. It’s hard to say whether that will reduce Rice’s touches but I’m inclined to say he will still have a great season regardless. Strength of schedule though favors Gore (3) and Jackson (5), two RB’s sure to get plenty of touches.
My last comment centers on Eisenberg’s inclusion of WR Andre Johnson at #6. Me personally, I never draft WR’s in the 1st round no matter who they are. Johnson will most likely have a great season even if Schaub should spend some time hurt. Yet most projections have approximately 20 QB’s and 5 RB’s scoring more points than the top WR. Based on that I can’t justify taking a WR until late 2nd round at the earliest.
Any other thoughts on these top 10 lists?
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A stud RB is more valuable in fantasy than a stud QB
RE:
My first thought as I look at this list (and many other lists for that matter) is that last year’s top scoring player Aaron Rodgers doesn’t show up until #7 and doesn’t even appear on the other list. In fact the top 11 QB’s scored more than last year’s #1 RB Chris Johnson. So why is the top 10 on both lists so devoid of QB’s? Injury risk? Potential for inconsistency from week to week? Neither of those reasons would pull be off of one of the top QB’s.
This is because it is so rare to get a running back in todays game that is a “workhorse” running back that the ones that are get drafted first. It says something about the quality of “Double Trouble” in Carolina that one of our backs could even be considered a 1st round fantasy choice. Most other backs in an RBBC (running back by committee) approach fall to at least the 3rd round.
Why isnt a stud QB as valuable? Because there is not such a production dropoff between the top rated QB and a mid-rated QB that wasting a first round pick on one is viable. Not to mention the top fantasy QB every year is usually different. Also, in the case of a QB, you are only drafting 2. A primary and a backup. (assuming you are in a 1 QB league) So, unless someone takes a backup QB really early, or a starter really late, You will own one of the top 12 QBs in the league even if you wait until round 9 or 10. With running backs, most people will draft at least 4, maybe 5, and possibly even 6 since they are more prone to injury and because of the prevelance of RBBCs in todays league.
Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers
Good reasoning Tater...
In the ESPN leagues I’ve been playing for over a decade QB’s don;t get as many points for yardage, etc…as allowed with the CSB app, making a QB less valuable. My draft strategy in the past has been RB, RB, WR, WR, QB. Yet with the higher scoring for TD passes, etc…I think taking a guy like Manning or Brees early makes sense. It’ll be interesting to see who goes RB versus QB early.
Just a comment
I never draft WR’s in the 1st round no matter who they are.
This really depends on how you’re league scoring is setup. The league that I play in gives a point per reception (aka PPR league). This makes WR more valuable if they catch a lot of balls (e.g. Welker, A. Johnson). If the league doesn’t score receptions, then RB is the way to go.
Good point
I’ve never played with that scoring but these days there is no limit to the scoring machinations that can be set up.
just depends on scoring in FFB
Basically just agreeing with Tater. Most of the time the difference between QB’s like Rodgers and a guy who you can get several rounds later in the draft is not significant enough (for me) to warrant a first round pick on a QB. The difference between a top tier RB and a middle of the road RB is going to be a lot different. Without seeing who is available when is why you can’t stick to just saying “I’m going to go RB, RB, WR, WR, QB……” Kind of like teams reaching for players in the real draft rather than taking the best available. Also, the dropoff from a guy like Andre Johnson or the top few WR’s and again what you are going to get several rounds later is much different.
I hear you...but
but if the top rated QB’s bring in 100 more points than the top RB, that’s on average approx 7 more points a game for a 15 game schedule (14 weeks reg season, 2 week playoff minus bye week, week 17 not included). How many times do you lose in a season by less than 7 points? Usually at least once or twice.
I was looking at last years results for this. Instead, lets look at projections for this year and see if this notion has merit. Let’s look at the point spread from the projected #1 player to the projected #10 player for the three positions QB, RB & WR.
QB 327 – 264 = 63 point spread
RB 254 – 165 = 98
WR 209 – 156 = 53
So there is credence to what you guys are saying as far as RBs being more valuable. QB’s have slightly more value then WR. Good stuff!
I like those lists but
neither D’Lo or Manning are in my top 10. I’ve got Gore ahead of Turner and 1 WR & 2 QB’s in my top 10. I won’t give away my entire draft strategy until after the CSR fantasy draft though. ;)
PS: Eisenberg and Richard are above average for pre-draft non-PPR rankings, but they are other-wordly for weekly positional rankings.
The most important thing for pre-draft rankings though:
depends on how you’re league scoring is setup.
I always hesitate to talk fantasy for that reason too but honestly...
if your going to follow my strategy then …buyer beware! I haven’t won a league since 2003!
So you are saying Eisenberg and Richard are just okay for the draft but very good for weekly match-ups? Good to know…
Yes, I read a lot on Fantasy, and mostly go by my own gut,
but if I’m on the fence, the CBS sports guys are usually really good at weekly rankings. (better than yahoo or espn anyway).
The other thing you will find in our csr leagues is that people will reach and draft way deeper for panthers players. There will be one team that will end up with Lafell, Stewart, King, Jarrett, Kasay and the Panthers’ D on one team. Barnridge, Armanti and Clausen will all get drafted. In a fan league like this, it’s also easy to pick up value in later rounds by avoiding the itch to ignore your board and reach for a Panthers player
hehe, I love it when people let their favorite teams preference get in the way of their drafting.
I’m guilty of it too, but I can usually resist the late round flyer. It usually comes out when I overrate the studs, like Smith, Williams, Stewart, Delhomme, Moore, etc. Of course if I’m drafting in a CSR league, I probably couldn’t overrated Moore. For fantasy purposes.
Ready for 2010 football already!!!
by Flowing Willow on Jul 27, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I will be very surprised if anyone drafts those guys
The only Panthers who have any Fantasy value are Smitty, Stew, and D-lo, imo. They’re the only ones I’d draft, anyway. You never know with some of you, though, :p
by Ol' Uncle Munnerlyn on Jul 27, 2010 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
No flyer on the Panther D?
with the Bucs, Browns and Rams on the schedule?
I’ve had a rule for many seasons…never draft Panthers because I always over value them.
I wouldn't draft the D
but it could be a valuable pickup in free agency.
by Ol' Uncle Munnerlyn on Jul 28, 2010 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I say Matt Moore
can be a solid pick for back up QB if you can get him late. He will fill in nicely whatever week you might need him and even has the potential to put up fantasy starter numbers. Probably wont be able to draft him too late in a CSR league but in any other you can get him in the last round.
"All generalizations are false, including this one." - Mark Twain
by ThePanthers! on Jul 28, 2010 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I think there's better options late
Such as Jason Campbell. Our RBs severely limit Moore’s value.
by Ol' Uncle Munnerlyn on Jul 28, 2010 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Campbell?
On the Raiders? Moore easily tops him as a backup. Especially once you facor in the schedule.
Ready for 2010 football already!!!
by Flowing Willow on Jul 28, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
How?
Oakland has no clue what to do at RB, so they’ll likely pass more. Carolina has the best rushing attack in the league, meaning he won’t pass often at all. I’d take Campbell over Moore in an instant.
by Ol' Uncle Munnerlyn on Jul 28, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
But, but, wait... we had a whole passing camp thingy. Teams will
be stacking the box, Armanti in the slot, 4 WR sets, SMITTY. -jk
Where there’s a will… I want to be in it.
I think Campbell's lack of talent makes up for that.
Moore will always have Smith, Campbell is good for Zach Miller’s fantasy value, and he makes the other Raider receivers like Murphy and Schilens ownable. But I’m not taking Campbell over Moore.
Ready for 2010 football already!!!
by Flowing Willow on Jul 29, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
It's all about VALUE, I'm a big proponent of value based drafting
When ranking players you have to determine their value compared to other starters at the same position to determine where they should be drafted. This takes alot of preseason work, but I play for $2500 a year in 7 different money leagues, so it’s worth it to me to do the research/predictions etc.
In case you arent familiar, in a 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE league like this years league, you have to predict the total points for at least the top 20 QBs, top 40 RB’s, top 60 WR’s, top 20TE’s, based on your league’s scoring setup. You base this on past performance with personnel additions/subtractions, coaching changes, all the normal thngs that change a team’s dynamics. In a 1 QB league in a 10 team league, there is, duh, 10 starters. You can compare each player in a few ways, the most common are 1: worst starter; 2. average starter. I use 2. So you add up all the predicted points from 1-10, divide by 10 and that is your baseline points for the QB. lets say your baseline for QB’s is 280 points and you have Rodgers at 340 points, Rodgers rating is +60, Brees +37, Manning +16….Moore -45,Cassel -67 etc. etc. You do the same for every position. Let’s say RB you end up with Johnson +95 AP +76 MJD +70… Jacobs -33 etc etc. WR you end up with Johnson +53 Moss +45 Wayne +37…. Boldin -20 Crabtree -24 etc etc.
You then put them all in decreasing order and that your value based list for the season. Even though Rodgers only scored 2 points less than CJ last year, his value compared to the average starter was much less than several RB’s.
The best thing to do at this point is also look at ADP for each player. If you have a player ranked 20th in value but his ADP is 48, don’t reach for that player, he’ll most likely still be there 2 rounds later, the key is using value with ADP to get the most value possible with each pick.
REMEMBER: you don’t have to outscore your opponent at every position, just in enough positions to win.
Knee jerk reaction - adj. 1. an immediate unthinking emotional reaction produced by an event or statement to which the reacting person is highly sensitive. 2. a facilitator of long threads on Cat Scratch Reader and similar blogs.
by Sniff on Jul 27, 2010 6:30 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Good stuff Sniff
I’ll have to consider using this method. Did you win any money last year?
Question: I imagine you start with someone else point predictions and then adjust up or down based on your hunches. If so who’s do you use? Or do you really predict from scratch?
Paid in $2500, won about $4300 I think
Got really screwed in my $1000 league. I had 63 more points scored than everybody in the league and finished 5-8. Every damn week, the guy I played had the best week of the season. I mean, it was like 79 83 121 the week they play me. 101 92 119 against me. I mean I lost 6 in a row at one point but scored the 2nd most points each week, I just hit against a freak performance by someone on the other team. Enormously pissed to say the least.
And I create a spreadsheet each year. I use last years points total as the baseline for each player and adjust up or down based on what happened during the offseason.
Rodgers: 327 points in 2009 :WR1 Driver is a year older and coming off surgery to both knees, Jennings had a down TD year and that should improve, Finley’s emergence in the playoffs will help, improved D in 2nd year of the 3-4 will have the O on the field more, doubt he can go 30/7 again hmmmmm I’m thinking 340 this year. It’s all subjective.
Do the same thing for about 170 more players and you got yourself a list.
I’ll be happy to email you the spreadsheet if you want it. You can adjust it however you think the season will go, and reuse it each year.
Knee jerk reaction - adj. 1. an immediate unthinking emotional reaction produced by an event or statement to which the reacting person is highly sensitive. 2. a facilitator of long threads on Cat Scratch Reader and similar blogs.
According to Smitty on WFNZ this morning, here's what you need in FF
A great RB, QB, Defense and TE. Fill the rest in best you can. In other words he took the humble route and said NOT to pick him early. Ha!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
I don't know..
I played for the first time last year. We used the FL on Yahoo and the QB’s were scoring waaaaay more than the RB. I’m not sure what type of scoring they used or what type of league it was, but the descrepency between the two were huge.
In Moore we trust!!!
If you're new to fantasy football...
Check out this link I found – sums up a lot of my drafting strategy:
http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/drafting_depth2.htm
Well guys..
One of the leagues I’m in drafted early and my draft went pretty well.. I’m using the same strategy for every league (mainly to see what sort of variation I get league-to-league). Standard ESPN league, 10 teams, and after a bit of FA tweaking, I’m looking at…
QB: Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Vince Young
RB: Jonathan Stewart, Shonn Greene, Thomas Jones
WR: Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, Vincent Jackson, Armanti Edwards (C’mon.. I had to)
TE: Jeremy Shockey
Kicker: David Akers
Def: Carolina, Miami (I’d like to think it’s not a homer pick but it probably is.. I really expect our D to put up some points)
Overall I’m pretty damn happy with it… Can’t wait to see how the strategy holds up in the 20 team league I’m in.
Overall Panthers Draft Grade: A
Sorry to DP but I should add..
The last time I made any noise near the top of a fantasy league was 2005, I’m hoping to break out of my rut this year.
Overall Panthers Draft Grade: A
Not bad, your core positions are pretty solid
I’d suggest dropping Vince Young (he’ll never see your active roster) and one of the D/ST’s and add depth at RB. There should be someone around the Correll Buckhalter, Arian Foster, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton, Mike Bell range you can pickup.
And be ready to pull the waiver wire trigger on Shockey’s replacement after week 1.
Knee jerk reaction - adj. 1. an immediate unthinking emotional reaction produced by an event or statement to which the reacting person is highly sensitive. 2. a facilitator of long threads on Cat Scratch Reader and similar blogs.
Gotta share this
I did a free ESPN draft this afternoon, kinda like a mock you play out the season, just for the hell of it. This guy argued with me for at least 20 minutes that he had the better team. I’ll list the two lineups and you all decide.
Sniff:
QB: Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb
RB: Chris Johnson, Jonathon Stewart, Jammal Charles, Ronnie Brown, Justin Forsett, Fred Jackson, Montario Hardesty
WR: Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Robert Meachem, Malcolm Floyd
TE; Jermichael Finley
D: 49ers
K: Shane Graham
Clueless Dbag:
QB: Drew Brees, Mark Sanchez
RB: Ryan Grant, Felix Jones, Ladanian Tomlinson, Julius Jones, Tim Hightower
WR: Chad Onso Stinko, TJ Houshmanzadeh, Donald Driver, Dez Bryant, Bernard Berrien
TE: Jason Witten
D: Cowboys, Saints
K: Ryan Longwell
Knee jerk reaction - adj. 1. an immediate unthinking emotional reaction produced by an event or statement to which the reacting person is highly sensitive. 2. a facilitator of long threads on Cat Scratch Reader and similar blogs.
Does that guy honestly think he has the better roster?
You blow him out of the water with Johnson, Stewart, Charles, and Brown alone. Forsett, Jackson, and Hardesty are solid backups. Finley could be the top TE, and Johnson and Floyd are due for huge years. White is always solid, and Meachem is a little streaky, but has some huge potential. Brees might keep his team respectable, but I’m a little leery of Brees this season, especially cause of the Madden Curse. Kolb will be better fantasy wise that Sanchez I believe. So in closing, I hope this is a money league, because you stand to clean house playing with these idiots.
Ready for 2010 football already!!!
by Flowing Willow on Jul 29, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
He certainly does
He changed his team name to “Beating Sniff Week 5” which is the first week we play.
I’m still perplexed.
Knee jerk reaction - adj. 1. an immediate unthinking emotional reaction produced by an event or statement to which the reacting person is highly sensitive. 2. a facilitator of long threads on Cat Scratch Reader and similar blogs.
Put money on that nao!
Ready for 2010 football already!!!
by Flowing Willow on Jul 29, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
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