Cat Scratch Reader: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: College Football Preseason Top 25 Rankings

Third Round Wide Receivers: Setting the Bar

In case you were on a different planet in April, the Panthers drafted two wide receivers in the third round of the NFL draft: Brandon LaFell (78th overall) and Armanti Edwards (89th overall). I've heard various predictions for both of these receivers for this year. If you ask the right person on CSR, they will both be pro-bowlers with 75 receptions, 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns in 2010.

I figured I'd do a little research to find out how third rounders generally fare in their rookie seasons. In the decade from 2000-2009, there have been 47 wide receivers drafted in the third round. That's a lot of data to draw many possible conclusions from. For the purpose of this article, I stuck to the stats at the WR position (excluding special teams stats). When giving averages and predictions, I excluded the five players that didn't get any playing time in their rookie seasons.

Here's a hint. The best rookie season by a third round pick happened in 2009 - see if you can guess the player...

More after the jump.

Star-divide

Here's what I found:
  • An average of 10.1 games with 2.3 starts.
  • 13.6 receptions
  • 180.8 yards
  • 13.3 yards/catch
  • 1 touchdown
  • 44% of players that didn't eclipse 100 yards receiving are now out of the NFL.
  • 64% of players that played in 2 or less games are now out of the NFL.
  • Most yards in a rookie season: Mike Wallace with 756 yards (congrats if you guessed right).
  • Most touchdowns in a rookie season: Mike Wallace/Darrell Jackson/Chris Henry with 6 TD.
  • Most starts: "Snoop" Minnis with 11.
  • 2009 total yards rank by a 3rd round receiver: 25th - Steve Smith CAR (982), 31st - Mike Sims-Walker (869), 34th - Mario Manningham (822)
  • 2008 total yards rank by a 3rd round receiver: 3rd - Steve Smith CAR (1,421), 24th - Bernard Berrian (964), 34th - Laveranues Coles (850)

I will include all the data I compiled below, but the biggest thing I saw is that most third round receivers are intended to be 3rd or 4th receivers with few exceptions. I know that the Panthers are a run-first team and they still believe they have something in Dwayne Jarrett, but one or both of these rookies is likely to get significant playing time this year. I don't know how likely it is, but many have suggested we could even have both on the field at the start of week one (along with Smitty). Maybe you can tease even more trends out of the data, so here it is:

Year Pick # Team Name Games Starts Rec. Yards Avg TD
2009 84 Steelers Mike Wallace 16 4 39 756 19.4 6
2000 80 Seahawks Darrell Jackson 16 9 53 713 13.5 6
2007 78 Packers James Jones 16 9 47 676 14.4 2
2001 77 Chiefs Marvin "Snoop" Minnis 13 11 33 511 15.5 1
2003 71 Vikings Nate Burleson 16 9 29 455 15.7 2
2007 75 Falcons Laurent Robinson 15 6 37 437 11.8 1
2005 83 Bengals Chris Henry 14 5 31 422 13.6 6
2000 78 Jets Laveranues Coles 13 3 22 370 16.8 1
2008 84 Falcons Harry Douglas 16 0 23 320 13.9 1
2005 96 Titans Brandon Jones 10 8 23 299 13 2
2003 65 Bengals Kelley Washington 16 3 22 299 13.6 4
2005 68 Titans Courtney Roby 13 6 21 289 13.8 1
2004 78 Bears Bernard Berrian 16 1 15 225 15 2
2006 82 Dolphins Derek Hagan 16 0 21 221 10.5 1
2007 79 Jaguars Mike Sims-Walker 9 1 16 217 13.6 0
2009 91 Seahawks Deon Butler 10 0 15 175 11.7 0
2001 74 Panthers Steve Smith 15 1 10 154 15.4 0
2007 73 Texans Jacoby Jones 14 3 15 149 9.9 0
2000 66 Bengals Ron Dugans 14 5 14 125 8.9 1
2006 90 Bucs Maurice Stovall 9 2 7 102 14.6 0
2000 79 Browns JaJuan Dawson 2 2 9 97 10.8 1
2000 73 Giants Ron Dixon 12 0 6 92 15.3 1
2008 81 Cardinals Early Doucet 7 0 14 90 6.4 0
2000 69 Bears Dez White 15 0 10 87 8.7 1
2008 97 Bengals Andre Caldwell 7 4 11 78 7.1 0
2009 82 Lions Derrick Williams 11 0 6 52 8.7 0
2007 99 Raiders Johnnie Lee Higgins 16 2 6 47 7.8 0
2007 74 Ravens Yamon Figurs 14 0 1 36 36 0
2006 78 Browns Travis Wilson 4 1 2 32 16 0
2008 95 Giants Mario Manningham 7 0 4 26 6.5 0
2009 85 Giants Ramses Barden 3 0 1 16 16 0
2003 74 Rams Kevin Curtis 4 1 4 13 3.3 0
2007 76 49ers Jason Hill 5 0 1 6 6 0
2004 82 Ravens Devard Darling 3 0 2 5 2.5 0
2003 95 Eagles Billy McMullen 5 0 1 2 2 0
2009 83 Patriots Brandon Tate 2 1 0 0 0 0
2009 87 Dolphins Patrick Turner 2 0 0 0 0 0
2009 99 Bears Juaquin Iglesias 1 0 0 0 0 0
2008 70 Bears Earl Bennett 10 0 0 0 0 0
2007 80 Titans Paul Williams 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006 84 49ers Brandon Williams 13 0 0 0 0 0
2006 95 Steelers Willie Reid 1 0 0 0 0 0
2004 77 49ers Derrick Hamilton 2 0 0 0 0 0
2002 86 Bucs Marquise Walker 0 0 0 0 0 0
2002 87 Redskins Cliff Russell 0 0 0 0 0 0
2002 95 Rams Eric Crouch 0 0 0 0 0 0
2000 70 Broncos Chris Cole 0 0 0 0 0 0

Poll
What is your prediction for Brandon LaFell and Armanti Edwards in the 2010 season?
They're both going to the pro bowl!
15 votes
They're both headed for about 700 yards with 5+TD's
150 votes
LaFell is, Edwards will be average.
72 votes
Edwards is, LaFell will be average.
84 votes
Theyr'e both headed for 180 yards with 1 TD.
88 votes
One won't make it onto the field in 2010.
22 votes
Other. Explain below.
18 votes

449 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 42 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

You probably should've looked up 2nd rounders.

I don’t think LaFell drops to the 3rd round in any other draft. Interesting that Laveranues Coles was a 3rd round pick. I was not aware. He didn’t do too well last year though. Just one of several reasons my fantasy team tanked.

stuff 'bout stuff.

by silver82blade on Jul 20, 2010 4:02 PM EDT reply actions  

This is true. This is the deepest draft likely in history with all talent Jrs coming out to beat the system.

As a 9er fan I couldn’t be happier with our 3rd rounder but I had LeFell falling to us and becoming our #2 over Morgan and Ginn. He will be a talent at some point. I don’t think the first year but sooner rather than later.

Gimme 1 round!

by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jul 22, 2010 6:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

I also feel like Armanti Edwards is an exception considering he is switching from QB

by NinjaRabbi on Jul 22, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Both will play

Unless Fox and Davidson actually change the play-calling, they may not have much opportunity to make an impact. BUT, why would management draft these two players as early as they did, ignoring arguably bigger needs (D-line) if they weren’t going to use these guys this year?

Since Clausen was picked 48th, and he will not be used this year unless something unforeseen happens, it would be irresponsible to use your first three draft picks on guys who are not going to have a role in 2010. This is especially true when you consider the amount of unproven players that we will call upon. The idea is to throw enough against the wall that something will have to stick.

Anyway, The above reasoning is why I believe these guys will both be asked to produce. How much we don’t yet know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if both players approach 400-500 receiving yards this year, as does Jarrett.

"If you ask Jets' CB Darrelle Revis, there is no one who is harder to cover one-on-one than Steve Smith. That has to mean something coming from last year's runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year."

by ERL on Jul 20, 2010 4:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Edwards has the bigger season this year...

Lafell will be splitting time with Jarrett, while Edwards will hopefully get lots of opportunities in the slot. I’m saying about 400 yds and 2 TDs for Edwards, 250 yards for Lafell. But, these two are the heir apparents to Smitty and Moose in future seasons.

All men make mistakes, but married men find out about them sooner.
Red Skelton

by Rick Bates on Jul 20, 2010 4:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Lafell just signed

I put up a fanshot a second ago.

"If you ask Jets' CB Darrelle Revis, there is no one who is harder to cover one-on-one than Steve Smith. That has to mean something coming from last year's runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year."

by ERL on Jul 20, 2010 4:37 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Jarrett and Lafell

will be competing for the WR2 spot with Edwards getting looks for the WR3 spot on 3 (and hopefully a couple 4) wide out sets, KR/PR (like Smitty), and a few wildcat plays this year. Though I’d be surprised if they actually let him do anything but run it out the wildcat this season. But I think the hopes are Edwards does evolve into Smitty’s successor at some point.

The Rules and Regulations of the Game: 89, Bottom Line.

by JC_GSO on Jul 20, 2010 6:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, luckily they still have a few more drafts before they absolutely need another All-Pro receiver. If they didn’t hit it this time, there’s always next year. Out of the 6 guys they picked up this offseason, you have to at least think 2 or 3 will stick though. Maybe they’re not All-Pro, but they should turn out to be good receivers. Hopefully there’s no Will Witherspoon goof up.

stuff 'bout stuff.

by silver82blade on Jul 20, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah I hard time believing

we can’t find one solid WR2 out of this lot. Hopefully we have a lot more, but I don’t think a solid 2nd option is expecting too much.

The Rules and Regulations of the Game: 89, Bottom Line.

by JC_GSO on Jul 20, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

To actually have 4 WR on the field...ocassionally

Yes. In the past if we’d lineup in an empty set, it would be Smitty, Moose, Jarrett/Hackett, a TE and a RB.

Now we might actually be equipped to put more playmakers on the field at the same time.

"If you ask Jets' CB Darrelle Revis, there is no one who is harder to cover one-on-one than Steve Smith. That has to mean something coming from last year's runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year."

by ERL on Jul 20, 2010 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Think they'll both exceed the average

but don’t believe they both hit 700 yds and 5 tds. With the Panthers running game, think opposing DC’s will have to pick their poison. Do they stack up the box with 8 players to try to counter Carolina’s ground attack and risk leaving their secondary in man to man coverage, or do they respect the Panther’s passing game and risk leaving their interior D overmatched against Double Trouble? With Davidson’s play calling, you can’t really say that any down & distance is an obvious passing situation. If he can be a little creative with his formations and play selection, this may be the most explosive Panther offense we’ve seen yet.

Take the world as it is, not as it ought to be.

by Cold Steel on Jul 20, 2010 8:03 PM EDT reply actions  

The first play of the first regular season game, they should run an end around with Armanti Edwards and have Steve Smith run a deep slant. Touchdown to Smith, and another route of the Giants.

stuff 'bout stuff.

by silver82blade on Jul 20, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll be happy with just another route of the Giants. Maybe my memory is failing but it’s been a couple years since a season opener win for the Panthers, right?

I see Edwards having a bigger impact as a slot receiver. Lafell rides the bench as management gives Jarrett his last shot at a career.

Lafell has a great season next year.

by SwampPanther on Jul 20, 2010 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

2008 against the Chargers.

by SlayerGhaleon on Jul 20, 2010 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

See that again.

I’m hoping to see a rematch of that in the future, since my bro goes for the Panthers and I go for the Chargers. I love this team as well, it’d be an awesome game. Explosive even.

"Never give up, even in defeat." I go for both the Bolts and the Vikings, so I guess you could call me Thor.

by Madcat5 on Jul 20, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd be interested to see a breakdown like this of 2nd round receivers bmoyer

I think in any other (more typical) draft, both of these players are 2nd round picks. Which I think is why management was willing to trade next years 2nd for Armanti in the 3rd this year. It will be reasonable that with that pick next year, talent has already dropped below that of Armanti.

As for expectations…

Provided we see a glimmer of hope in Jarrett, I think we see him and Smitty lining up as our starters. I think we can expect to see either LaFell or Armanti in the slot depending on the situation. If we are looking at 3rd and 5, we may be more likely to see LaFell, if we are looking at 2nd and 10, maybe more likely to see Armanti.

Reasonably, I think we see more LaFell than Armanti, simply because Armanti still has a lot to learn. The camp reports are encouraging, but we won’t know much about how ready he is until the preseason when he faces opposing DBs in full contact drills. Here are my early forecasts for our rookies assuming that niether are starters:

LaFell: 38rec, 470yds, 4tds
Edwards: 14rec, 300yds, 2tds rushing: 20att, 110yds, 1td passing: 4/6, 90yds, 1td

The forecast on Edwards assumes a little wildcat duty as well as WR sweeps and reverses. I think he gets one long touchdown on a wildcat pass if Davidson/Fox let him throw it occasionally.

Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers

by Tater596 on Jul 21, 2010 9:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah. I know it.

But I just don’t see a lot of short passes headed his way. I think they are more likely to use him on the deep routes. He makes a sneaky target underneath in space on say a slant or dig route, but his game will shine on the seams and deep posts.

That said, I have tried to average in 2 or 3 40+ yard receptions to his total. So if you give him 3 receptions that total up to be around 150 of those yards and subtract that you get… 11rec, 150yards, for a YPC of 13.6, which I think is attainable.

Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers

by Tater596 on Jul 21, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is a reality check article

I know it’s fun to assume in the off season that every move the Panthers make will be gold. But that’snot the reality of things. Drafting another Smitty in any round, much less the third is extremely unlikely. And Fox/Hurney don’t have a great record in drafting receivers.

I do however have hope that since we have a bunch of potential #2’s this year, the odds are better that we’ll find one. I’m just not confident that that person will emerge by week one. It might take 10 or more games. Luckily though we might be able to cushion the lack of experience with an easy schedule. And hopefully be ready to go come playoffs.

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Jul 21, 2010 1:02 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

It's the laws of probability

Possible but not likely

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Jul 22, 2010 9:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I'm really excited to see LaFell play

He’s the more polished guy who is supposed to be ‘NFL ready’ whereas Edwards will take a season or two before making a significant impact imo.

Follow Cat Scratch Reader on Twitter and Facebook

by Jaxon on Jul 21, 2010 1:29 PM EDT reply actions  

You are probably right about Edwards

But about every other time I see his name I think “DeShaun Jackson.”

"If you ask Jets' CB Darrelle Revis, there is no one who is harder to cover one-on-one than Steve Smith. That has to mean something coming from last year's runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year."

by ERL on Jul 21, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

They have almost the same frame...

I don’t know if Edwards is quite the 4.3 40 guy Jackson is, but they are definitely the same type of player. If only Edwards had gone to a div 1A school…

by bmoyer on Jul 21, 2010 2:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Clemson tried to get him to transfer

But he wanted none of it. After getting snubbed as a 0-star recruit the FBS didnt even look at him. It wasn’t until after his superstar freshman year that the FBS brain trust wanted him. But, by then, Armanti was an on-campus hero at App, and was playing with that chip on his shoulder of not being good enough for the big boys coming out of high school.

Here is his old rivals.com recruiting page. You can see they rated him 0 stars but all the users have given him 5 stars. lol. Scout.com at least gave him 2 stars.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Armanti-Edwards-36897

also… you can see here that Clemson took a look at him after his junior year of high school, but never offered him a scholarship originally.

http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/barrier_noentry.asp?ReturnTo=&sid=&script=content.asp&cid=391557&fid=&tid=&mid=&rid=

Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers

by Tater596 on Jul 21, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

How does a guy with NFL athletic ability get zero stars?

It seems like he’d be good for something at least. That SAT score was pretty bad lol. Maybe that had something to do with it. He still should’ve gotten at least 1 star though.

stuff 'bout stuff.

by silver82blade on Jul 21, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah I noticed the SAT score. horrible. lol

Which is funny because he graduated from App in only 3.5 years and made the Dean’s list. Some people are just not good at taking tests.

But seriously, rivals rating him so poorly just goes to show how bad and useless some of these rating sites can be. For example, Tennessee has a star middle linebacker (Nick Reviez) returning this year that made the team as a walk on, but he is considered one of the best linebackers in the SEC.

Unofficial Agent for Armanti Edwards, WR #10, Carolina Panthers

by Tater596 on Jul 22, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Could you imagine if he has anywhere near the same impact as D-Jack in his first two seasons?

I think he can. He’s that good.

"If you ask Jets' CB Darrelle Revis, there is no one who is harder to cover one-on-one than Steve Smith. That has to mean something coming from last year's runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year."

by ERL on Jul 21, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

You may be overestimating

It’s better to underestimate ones talent than over

by Mattyice318 on Jul 21, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

FALCONS FAN!!! FALCONS FAN!!!

Sound the alarm!! Raise the drawbridge!! Archers to the walls!!

Ha ha. Just playin’.

stuff 'bout stuff.

by silver82blade on Jul 21, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Look at Sidney Rice's stats from 2007-08 to 2009

Every player is on a different team, in a different situation, with a different QB. It’s not apples to apples.

"If you ask Jets' CB Darrelle Revis, there is no one who is harder to cover one-on-one than Steve Smith. That has to mean something coming from last year's runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year."

by ERL on Jul 23, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Some apples are rotten and have to be tossed out

Just Sayin!

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Jul 23, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well as we have been saying for two years, perhaps prematurely

This is the year that he has to put up or shut up. We were too quick to say that. Now is when he must produce, because now he is going to be given a real opportunity.

"If you ask Jets' CB Darrelle Revis, there is no one who is harder to cover one-on-one than Steve Smith. That has to mean something coming from last year's runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year."

by ERL on Jul 23, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not super confident in Jarrett, but I think he has a better shot than LaFell or Edwards

At least for this year. He has had time to adjust and learn the ropes. He’s made a few plays here and there, and now he has the opportunity. The rookies are still at step one. Have no clue which one will still be here in 2013, but I think Jarrett would have to have the better 2010.

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Jul 23, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can feed them to some cows. You don’t have to just throw them out.

stuff 'bout stuff.

by silver82blade on Jul 23, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, that's exactly what we'll do

Maybe not crows, but I can think of a few other dirty birds ;)

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Jul 23, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Join our Panthers vs Steelers Open Thread 7pm 9/2/10

CSR Code of Conduct....CSR Glossary of Terms
Start posting about the Panthers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Panther_small
What to Watch for, and Roster Thoughts for Thursday Night's Game
Surf_small
Ask a Steelers Fan - The Final Preseason Game
Small
Titans vs Panthers: Defense Play-by-Play Summary
Small
Play-by-Play Summary of the Titans game - Offense Grades First
Small
The Struggles of Panthers Edwards Not Unprecedented in Carolina

Recent FanPosts

Small
What did we learn against the Steelers?
Panther_small
Thursday Night Thoughts...
Dave_small
OT: 2010 SB Nation Madden 11 Online Season for Xbox 360
Panther_small
One game to go
New_orleans_saints_v_carolina_panthers_kquhipdmanll_small
The REAL reason the offense looks lackluster
Finnishhim_small
DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should stick around for awhile
Artest_small
10 Predictions for the new campaign
Cheerleader-38_small
CSR 2 Fantasy Football League Wednesday Update: The Draft
Catscratchreader_m_small
Jaxon Needs Fantasy Players

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Latest NFL Headlines from SB Nation

Big Blue View
Tom Coughlin, Post-Game, 09.02.10
Cat Scratch Reader
Panthers Coast in Preseason Loss to Steelers 19-3
Cat Scratch Reader
Panthers vs. Steelers: The Morning After

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Photo

2010 NFL Preview, Dallas Cowboys: Playing For A Home Super Bowl

PITTSBURGH - AUGUST 25:  Byron Leftwich #4 of the Pittsburgh Steelers warms up prior to the preseason game against the Carolina Panthers on September 2 2010 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Steelers Quarterback Byron Leftwich Leaves Game With Left Knee Injury

Photo

Cowboys WR Patrick Crayton Wants To Be Released

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Catscratchreader_m_small Jaxon

Editors

N1523447507_30151367_6579_small Cyberjag

Img_0764_small LittleKing

Currentflag_small James The Aussie

Beast52_small bwsmith25

Authors

Dbc92c5112a9b23c_small Revshawn

Bmoyer_small bmoyer