Third Round Wide Receivers: Setting the Bar

I don’t think LaFell drops to the 3rd round in any other draft. Interesting that Laveranues Coles was a 3rd round pick. I was not aware. He didn’t do too well last year though. Just one of several reasons my fantasy team tanked.

Unless Fox and Davidson actually change the play-calling, they may not have much opportunity to make an impact. BUT, why would management draft these two players as early as they did, ignoring arguably bigger needs (D-line) if they weren’t going to use these guys this year?

Since Clausen was picked 48th, and he will not be used this year unless something unforeseen happens, it would be irresponsible to use your first three draft picks on guys who are not going to have a role in 2010. This is especially true when you consider the amount of unproven players that we will call upon. The idea is to throw enough against the wall that something will have to stick.

Anyway, The above reasoning is why I believe these guys will both be asked to produce. How much we don’t yet know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if both players approach 400-500 receiving yards this year, as does Jarrett.

Lafell will be splitting time with Jarrett, while Edwards will hopefully get lots of opportunities in the slot. I’m saying about 400 yds and 2 TDs for Edwards, 250 yards for Lafell. But, these two are the heir apparents to Smitty and Moose in future seasons.

I put up a fanshot a second ago.

will be competing for the WR2 spot with Edwards getting looks for the WR3 spot on 3 (and hopefully a couple 4) wide out sets, KR/PR (like Smitty), and a few wildcat plays this year. Though I’d be surprised if they actually let him do anything but run it out the wildcat this season. But I think the hopes are Edwards does evolve into Smitty’s successor at some point.

but don’t believe they both hit 700 yds and 5 tds. With the Panthers running game, think opposing DC’s will have to pick their poison. Do they stack up the box with 8 players to try to counter Carolina’s ground attack and risk leaving their secondary in man to man coverage, or do they respect the Panther’s passing game and risk leaving their interior D overmatched against Double Trouble? With Davidson’s play calling, you can’t really say that any down & distance is an obvious passing situation. If he can be a little creative with his formations and play selection, this may be the most explosive Panther offense we’ve seen yet.

I think in any other (more typical) draft, both of these players are 2nd round picks. Which I think is why management was willing to trade next years 2nd for Armanti in the 3rd this year. It will be reasonable that with that pick next year, talent has already dropped below that of Armanti.

As for expectations…

Provided we see a glimmer of hope in Jarrett, I think we see him and Smitty lining up as our starters. I think we can expect to see either LaFell or Armanti in the slot depending on the situation. If we are looking at 3rd and 5, we may be more likely to see LaFell, if we are looking at 2nd and 10, maybe more likely to see Armanti.

Reasonably, I think we see more LaFell than Armanti, simply because Armanti still has a lot to learn. The camp reports are encouraging, but we won’t know much about how ready he is until the preseason when he faces opposing DBs in full contact drills. Here are my early forecasts for our rookies assuming that niether are starters:

LaFell: 38rec, 470yds, 4tds
Edwards: 14rec, 300yds, 2tds rushing: 20att, 110yds, 1td passing: 4/6, 90yds, 1td

The forecast on Edwards assumes a little wildcat duty as well as WR sweeps and reverses. I think he gets one long touchdown on a wildcat pass if Davidson/Fox let him throw it occasionally.

I know it’s fun to assume in the off season that every move the Panthers make will be gold. But that’snot the reality of things. Drafting another Smitty in any round, much less the third is extremely unlikely. And Fox/Hurney don’t have a great record in drafting receivers.

I do however have hope that since we have a bunch of potential #2’s this year, the odds are better that we’ll find one. I’m just not confident that that person will emerge by week one. It might take 10 or more games. Luckily though we might be able to cushion the lack of experience with an easy schedule. And hopefully be ready to go come playoffs.

He’s the more polished guy who is supposed to be ‘NFL ready’ whereas Edwards will take a season or two before making a significant impact imo.

I don’t know if Edwards is quite the 4.3 40 guy Jackson is, but they are definitely the same type of player. If only Edwards had gone to a div 1A school…