In case you were on a different planet in April, the Panthers drafted two wide receivers in the third round of the NFL draft: Brandon LaFell (78th overall) and Armanti Edwards (89th overall). I've heard various predictions for both of these receivers for this year. If you ask the right person on CSR, they will both be pro-bowlers with 75 receptions, 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns in 2010.
I figured I'd do a little research to find out how third rounders generally fare in their rookie seasons. In the decade from 2000-2009, there have been 47 wide receivers drafted in the third round. That's a lot of data to draw many possible conclusions from. For the purpose of this article, I stuck to the stats at the WR position (excluding special teams stats). When giving averages and predictions, I excluded the five players that didn't get any playing time in their rookie seasons.
Here's a hint. The best rookie season by a third round pick happened in 2009 - see if you can guess the player...
More after the jump.
Here's what I found:- An average of 10.1 games with 2.3 starts.
- 13.6 receptions
- 180.8 yards
- 13.3 yards/catch
- 1 touchdown
- 44% of players that didn't eclipse 100 yards receiving are now out of the NFL.
- 64% of players that played in 2 or less games are now out of the NFL.
- Most yards in a rookie season: Mike Wallace with 756 yards (congrats if you guessed right).
- Most touchdowns in a rookie season: Mike Wallace/Darrell Jackson/Chris Henry with 6 TD.
- Most starts: "Snoop" Minnis with 11.
- 2009 total yards rank by a 3rd round receiver: 25th - Steve Smith CAR (982), 31st - Mike Sims-Walker (869), 34th - Mario Manningham (822)
- 2008 total yards rank by a 3rd round receiver: 3rd - Steve Smith CAR (1,421), 24th - Bernard Berrian (964), 34th - Laveranues Coles (850)
I will include all the data I compiled below, but the biggest thing I saw is that most third round receivers are intended to be 3rd or 4th receivers with few exceptions. I know that the Panthers are a run-first team and they still believe they have something in Dwayne Jarrett, but one or both of these rookies is likely to get significant playing time this year. I don't know how likely it is, but many have suggested we could even have both on the field at the start of week one (along with Smitty). Maybe you can tease even more trends out of the data, so here it is:
| Year | Pick # | Team | Name | Games | Starts | Rec. | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2009 | 84 | Steelers | Mike Wallace | 16 | 4 | 39 | 756 | 19.4 | 6 |
| 2000 | 80 | Seahawks | Darrell Jackson | 16 | 9 | 53 | 713 | 13.5 | 6 |
| 2007 | 78 | Packers | James Jones | 16 | 9 | 47 | 676 | 14.4 | 2 |
| 2001 | 77 | Chiefs | Marvin "Snoop" Minnis | 13 | 11 | 33 | 511 | 15.5 | 1 |
| 2003 | 71 | Vikings | Nate Burleson | 16 | 9 | 29 | 455 | 15.7 | 2 |
| 2007 | 75 | Falcons | Laurent Robinson | 15 | 6 | 37 | 437 | 11.8 | 1 |
| 2005 | 83 | Bengals | Chris Henry | 14 | 5 | 31 | 422 | 13.6 | 6 |
| 2000 | 78 | Jets | Laveranues Coles | 13 | 3 | 22 | 370 | 16.8 | 1 |
| 2008 | 84 | Falcons | Harry Douglas | 16 | 0 | 23 | 320 | 13.9 | 1 |
| 2005 | 96 | Titans | Brandon Jones | 10 | 8 | 23 | 299 | 13 | 2 |
| 2003 | 65 | Bengals | Kelley Washington | 16 | 3 | 22 | 299 | 13.6 | 4 |
| 2005 | 68 | Titans | Courtney Roby | 13 | 6 | 21 | 289 | 13.8 | 1 |
| 2004 | 78 | Bears | Bernard Berrian | 16 | 1 | 15 | 225 | 15 | 2 |
| 2006 | 82 | Dolphins | Derek Hagan | 16 | 0 | 21 | 221 | 10.5 | 1 |
| 2007 | 79 | Jaguars | Mike Sims-Walker | 9 | 1 | 16 | 217 | 13.6 | 0 |
| 2009 | 91 | Seahawks | Deon Butler | 10 | 0 | 15 | 175 | 11.7 | 0 |
| 2001 | 74 | Panthers | Steve Smith | 15 | 1 | 10 | 154 | 15.4 | 0 |
| 2007 | 73 | Texans | Jacoby Jones | 14 | 3 | 15 | 149 | 9.9 | 0 |
| 2000 | 66 | Bengals | Ron Dugans | 14 | 5 | 14 | 125 | 8.9 | 1 |
| 2006 | 90 | Bucs | Maurice Stovall | 9 | 2 | 7 | 102 | 14.6 | 0 |
| 2000 | 79 | Browns | JaJuan Dawson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 97 | 10.8 | 1 |
| 2000 | 73 | Giants | Ron Dixon | 12 | 0 | 6 | 92 | 15.3 | 1 |
| 2008 | 81 | Cardinals | Early Doucet | 7 | 0 | 14 | 90 | 6.4 | 0 |
| 2000 | 69 | Bears | Dez White | 15 | 0 | 10 | 87 | 8.7 | 1 |
| 2008 | 97 | Bengals | Andre Caldwell | 7 | 4 | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 0 |
| 2009 | 82 | Lions | Derrick Williams | 11 | 0 | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 |
| 2007 | 99 | Raiders | Johnnie Lee Higgins | 16 | 2 | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| 2007 | 74 | Ravens | Yamon Figurs | 14 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 36 | 0 |
| 2006 | 78 | Browns | Travis Wilson | 4 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 0 |
| 2008 | 95 | Giants | Mario Manningham | 7 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| 2009 | 85 | Giants | Ramses Barden | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 0 |
| 2003 | 74 | Rams | Kevin Curtis | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| 2007 | 76 | 49ers | Jason Hill | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 2004 | 82 | Ravens | Devard Darling | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| 2003 | 95 | Eagles | Billy McMullen | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2009 | 83 | Patriots | Brandon Tate | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 87 | Dolphins | Patrick Turner | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 99 | Bears | Juaquin Iglesias | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | 70 | Bears | Earl Bennett | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | 80 | Titans | Paul Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 84 | 49ers | Brandon Williams | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 95 | Steelers | Willie Reid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | 77 | 49ers | Derrick Hamilton | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | 86 | Bucs | Marquise Walker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | 87 | Redskins | Cliff Russell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | 95 | Rams | Eric Crouch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2000 | 70 | Broncos | Chris Cole | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Poll
What is your prediction for Brandon LaFell and Armanti Edwards in the 2010 season?
They're both going to the pro bowl! (15 votes)
They're both headed for about 700 yards with 5+TD's (150 votes)
LaFell is, Edwards will be average. (72 votes)
Edwards is, LaFell will be average. (84 votes)
Theyr'e both headed for 180 yards with 1 TD. (88 votes)
One won't make it onto the field in 2010. (22 votes)
Other. Explain below. (18 votes)
449 total votes
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