In my last post, I reviewed the big boards at several draft sites around the web.  In doing so, I kind of generated a consensus big board of the top 100 players in this year's draft.

The next step is obvious.  Now that the rankings have been determined, where do all of these talent evaluators actually predict that the players will go?  It's one thing to say that Sam Bradford is the fifth best player, it's quite another to leave him on the board until the fifth pick.

So with that in mind, I did some more research.  The criteria I used was simple.  The site had to be fairly well known, it had to have some decent research behind it, and it had to have at least three rounds in it's mock.

We all know that mock drafts are pretty worthless after the first round.  In fact, most of them are worthless by the middle of the first round.  Not only do NFL talent evaluators know more about what they want than bloggers and internet football geeks, there are also other elements at play that can completely change the dynamics of the draft.

For instance, there's the domino effect of a trade.  If one of those happens, there's going to be a sudden shake-up of needs versus available players, and that will impact how the next few picks go. 

You can also have runs on a certain position.  A couple of years ago a run on offensive tackles put Sam Baker in the first round.  Every year it seems that clubs can't get enough of one position early, and that can ruin predictions.

Then there's the Al Davis factor.  Need I elaborate?

So obviously, it's really hard to predict who's going to do what.  And I'm not even going to try.  Instead, I'm going to report on what the mock draft experts at http://www.draftsite.com, http://www.cdsdraft.com, http://www.drafttek.com, http://www.walterfootball.com (both Walt's and Matt's), http://www.sidelinescouting.com, http://www.draftace.com, and http://www.newnfldraft.com think.

The methodology is similar to that which I employed on the big board.  Players are averaged by selection, and if they don't appear in a draft they get a draft position of 100 for averaging purposes.

So without further ado, here is the consolidated draft for the first three rounds, according to the experts.

	Player	Position	Average Pick	Weighted Average Pick	Highest Pick	Lowest Pick	Big Board Value	Draft Value
1	Sam Bradford	QB	1.00	1.00	1	1	5	-4
2	Ndamukong Suh	DT	2.25	2.57	2	3	1	1
3	Russell Okung	OT	3.63	4.14	2	5	4	-1
4	Gerald McCoy	DT	4.00	4.57	3	8	3	1
5	Eric Berry	S	6.25	7.14	5	7	2	3
6	Jimmy Clausen	QB	6.88	7.86	4	10	12	-6
7	Bryan Bulaga	OT	8.50	9.71	5	24	11	-4
8	Trent Williams	OT	10.38	11.86	5	17	18	-10
9	Joe Haden	CB	10.75	12.29	7	16	8	1
10	C.J. Spiller	RB	11.75	13.43	6	17	10	0
11	Rolando McClain	ILB	13.50	15.43	10	25	6	5
12	Derrick Morgan	DE	13.88	15.86	10	19	7	5
13	Dez Bryant	WR	15.75	18.00	10	29	9	4
14	Jason Pierre-Paul	DE	16.63	19.00	12	26	13	1
15	Dan Williams	DT	17.00	19.43	9	36	16	-1
16	Earl Thomas	S	17.38	19.86	10	24	17	-1
17	Anthony Davis	OT	18.25	20.86	8	30	20	-3
18	Bruce Campbell	OT	18.50	21.14	8	49	19	-1
19	Brandon Graham	DE	19.63	22.43	12	34	15	4
20	Mike Iupati	OG	20.25	23.14	13	31	14	6
21	Sean Weatherspoon	OLB	21.88	25.00	15	32	26	-5
22	Taylor Mays	S	22.00	25.14	11	38	23	-1
23	Carlos Dunlap	DE	24.00	27.43	15	37	36	-13
24	Kyle Wilson	CB	25.00	28.57	17	40	21	3
25	Sergio Kindle	OLB	25.88	29.57	16	38	24	1
26	Jermaine Gresham	TE	26.88	30.71	12	38	30	-4
27	Ryan Mathews	RB	27.50	31.43	20	34	38	-11
28	Jared Odrick	DT	28.38	32.43	22	41	27	1
29	Charles Brown	OT	29.00	33.14	23	39	37	-8
30	Maurkice Pouncey	OG	29.13	33.29	24	36	28	2
31	Golden Tate	WR	30.38	34.71	21	36	32	-1
32	Terrence Cody	DT	31.13	35.57	27	40	34	-2
33	Jerry Hughes	DE	34.00	38.86	22	43	22	11
34	Everson Griffen	DE	34.63	39.57	22	55	29	5
35	Brian Price	DT	36.25	41.43	25	51	25	10
36	Arrelious Benn	WR	37.63	43.00	29	45	33	3
37	Demaryius Thomas	WR	39.50	45.14	33	49	41	-4
38	Jahvid Best	RB	40.25	46.00	21	65	31	7
39	Devin McCourty	CB	32.43	46.71	16	100	35	4
40	Damian Williams	WR	42.50	48.57	33	58	45	-5
41	Patrick Robinson	CB	49.13	56.14	34	65	43	-2
42	Tim Tebow	QB	49.25	56.29	36	74	61	-19
43	Brandon LaFell	WR	52.38	59.86	31	72	50	-7
44	Daryl Washington	ILB	48.00	62.29	36	100	39	5
45	Rodger Saffold	OG	49.43	63.71	31	100	53	-8
46	Colt McCoy	QB	50.43	64.71	38	100	52	-6
47	Corey Wootton	DE	56.75	64.86	35	79	49	-2
48	Kareem Jackson	CB	56.88	65.00	30	81	44	4
49	Nate Allen	S	57.00	65.14	43	80	48	1
50	Rob Gronkowski	TE	58.50	66.86	46	88	42	8
51	Navorro Bowman	OLB	60.00	68.57	39	85	56	-5
52	Aaron Hernandez	TE	55.00	69.29	37	100	47	5
53	Jonathan Dwyer	RB	62.25	71.14	40	87	46	7
54	Ricky Sapp	OLB	64.13	73.29	39	92	40	14
55	Morgan Burnett	S	64.88	74.14	51	79	58	-3
56	Vladimir Ducasse	OT	65.75	75.14	42	98	60	-4
57	Tyson Alualu	DT	61.29	75.57	42	100	69	-12
58	Dominique Franks	CB	61.57	75.86	43	100	55	3
59	Chad Jones	S	56.50	77.00	34	100	54	5
60	Brandon Spikes	ILB	57.50	77.86	25	100	57	3
61	Cam Thomas	DT	57.50	77.86	41	100	77	-16
62	Jared Veldheer	OT	59.17	79.29	49	100	88	-26
63	Koa Misi	OLB	59.33	79.43	49	100	74	-11
64	Brandon Ghee	CB	59.83	79.86	47	100	63	1
65	Reshad Jones	S	68.86	83.14	54	100	86	-21
66	Mardy Gilyard	WR	56.60	83.29	42	100	71	-5
67	Perrish Cox	CB	69.71	84.00	51	100	76	-9
68	Dexter McCluster	WR	69.86	84.14	56	100	64	4
69	Chris Cook	CB	66.17	85.29	57	100	59	10
70	Sean Lee	ILB	66.17	85.29	55	100	68	2
71	Jon Asamoah	OG	67.83	86.71	53	100	62	9
72	John Jerry	OG	74.00	88.29	50	100	67	5
73	Eric Norwood	OLB	70.33	88.86	54	100	51	22
74	Alex Carrington	DE	71.00	89.43	53	100	87	-13
75	Montario Hardesty	RB	69.40	92.43	37	100	80	-5
76	Geno Atkins	DT	62.75	93.00	39	100	96	-20
77	Donovan Warren	CB	52.67	94.00	20	100	95	-18
78	Toby Gerhart	RB	72.60	94.71	51	100	65	13
79	Lamarr Houston	DT	73.20	95.14	54	100	79	0
80	Thaddeus Gibson	OLB	73.40	95.29	52	100	89	-9
81	Jason Worilds	DE	78.50	95.86	47	100	70	11
82	Donald Butler	ILB	68.50	96.29	46	100
83	Arthur Jones	DT	69.00	96.57	62	100	66	17
84	Ben Tate	RB	75.40	96.71	51	100	90	-6
85	Akwasi Owusu-Ansah	CB	75.80	97.00	69	100
86	Joe McKnight	RB	80.50	97.57	60	100
87	Andre Roberts	WR	62.33	98.14	48	100
88	Jevan Snead	QB	72.00	98.29	49	100
89	Jarrett Brown	QB	72.25	98.43	71	100
90	Jacoby Ford	WR	81.67	98.57	59	100	73	17
91	Jordan Shipley	WR	73.25	99.00	48	100
92	Dorin Dickerson	TE	75.00	100.00	53	100	91	1
93	Tony Pike	QB	68.33	100.71	46	100	83	10
94	Javier Arenas	CB	77.75	101.57	59	100
95	Mike Johnson	OG	78.00	101.71	50	100	98	-3
96	Linval Joseph	DT	70.67	101.71	50	100
97	Jimmy Graham	TE	78.25	101.86	54	100	93	4
98	Greg Hardy	DE	79.00	102.29	60	100	78	20
99	Eric Decker	WR	80.25	103.00	67	100	84	15

Interesting stuff, huh?  Everyone agrees that Bradford is the first pick, but that's about all they agree on.  Suh is always up there, but in some drafts Okung was the second selection and in others McCoy is the first DT off the board.

What's even more interesting is the contrast between where the big board rates a player and where the mock has him going.  A lot of that has to do with team needs, of course.  We all know that despite all the BPA talk out there, if a team can't draft at a position of need early they're going to trade down.

But which positions are the biggest beneficiaries of need versus talent?  Obviously, Quarterback is a top one.  What are the others? 

This table shows the average value based on position.  Remember, a negative means that the player tend to get drafted higher than their talent would otherwise suggest.

 

	First Round	First Two Rounds	First Three Rounds
CB	2.00	2.00	-0.30
DE	-0.75	1.57	2.90
DT	0.00	-2.25	-1.91
ILB	5.00	4.33	3.75
OG	4.00	0.00	1.83
OLB	-2.00	-1.20	1.00
OT	-4.50	-7.13	-7.13
QB	-5.00	-8.75	-5.00
RB	-5.50	0.75	0.71
S	0.33	0.67	-2.43
TE	-4.00	3.00	2.80
WR	1.50	-1.67	2.10

What does it mean?  Well really, this isn't as scientific as it could be.  It's also a fairly small sample, so you wouldn't want to take any conclusions drawn off it to Vegas.  But there are a few items that are worth noting.

First, note how Offensive Tackle is actually a bigger "reach" position than Quarterback. And if you've been following the draft for a few years, that shouldn't be a surprise.  It seems like there are always a lot of OTs taken early in hopes that they can anchor the left side for years. 

And once they hit the field, it seems like a lot of them end up stuck on the right, or moved inside to Guard.

Guards and Centers, on the other hand, are always taken lower than they are predicted to be.  Panther fans can tell you that, given that Carolina nabbed the top guard on most draft boards last year, in the fifth round.  Remember that when someone tells you that Maurkice Pouncey may sneak into the top 20.

Wide Receiver is another position where teams tend to be more cautious.  And given the bust rate at that position, it's no surprise that they do.  If there isn't a run on WRs in this draft, that may bode well for the Panthers. 

The big board had Demarious Thomas and Damian Williams in spitting distance of the Panthers' first selection.  If the Cats decide that they have to have one of them, and if the receiver pick position slides a little, then a small "move me up" trade may be in the offering.

And another big position of need for the Panthers also tends to be a value choice--Defensive End.  That's probably because of the question on which DEs are better suited to OLB in the 3-4, but both Carlos Dunlap and Corey Wooten have 4-3 DE written all over them, and at 48 they have to be the DEs that the Panthers are looking at.

So that's the combined draft consensus.  Taken with the combined Big Board, you start to get an idea of what the possibilities may be where the Panthers are concerned on day two of the draft.

The next an final post in the series will discuss the team needs, and overlay their selections with the available players and what range they're predicted to fall in.

Until then, enjoy the guessing game!