Armchair GM: Looking at Wide Receiver

There's no doubt that Wide Receiver is a problem area for the Panthers.  Their top two receivers are both old, and one is clearly on the decline.  In any honest evaluation of the roster, it's clear that Wide Receiver is one of the biggest, if not the biggest concern.

The Panthers haven't done a lot with their receivers in the John Fox era.  While offensive formations throughout the NFL have shown more three and four receiver sets as rules have changed, John Fox has doggedly stuck with his I-Formation and the Erhardt-Perkins smash-mouth running scheme.  When it's worked, it's worked well for him, and he's conservative enough to stick with a winning formula.

But making it work requires some specific skills.  You need a Tight End who can block and work the middle.  You need two receivers who can play physical and knock the cornerback out of the way when the back is running a sweep.  You need a split end who's strong enough to beat the jam at the line and either support the run or make plays across the middle, preferably paired with a speedster on the other side to stretch the field and keep the safeties honest.

In the Panthers' system, running backs are not used as receivers often, they run the ball and set up the defense for deep gains in the play-action passing game.  If the safeties start cheating up to support the run, the quarterback can hit the deep threat for a big gain.

Carolina has been fortunate to have had one of the best deep threats in the league on their roster for several years now in Steve Smith.  The Panthers also have Muhsin Muhammad, one of the best blocking receivers in NFL history.  In 2008, the two of them were almost prototypes for what you look for in starting receivers in the type of offense they run.

Unfortunately, that's no longer the case.  There isn't much behind them, and both starters are aging.  Moose clearly lost a step in 2009, and would not challenge for a starting role on most rosters.  Smith has some time left in him, but he's about all the Panthers have, they don't even have a viable slot receiver.  And they have no one who's been groomed to take over either starting position.

Ideally, Muhammad will assume the third receiver role in 2010, with a newcomer taking his place as the number two option.  That means they need another physical possession receiver who blocks well.  But they also need someone who they can develop behind Smith, and it's never a bad thing to have speed on the roster.

What they really need at Receiver are a couple of legitimate deep threats and a couple of good possession receivers.  But then, so does every team.

In the meantime, here's what they have to work with.

• Steve Smith (30 y.o., 5'9", 185 lbs.) - Smitty may be 30, but he still has incredible quickness, speed and athleticism.  He's also about the biggest competitor on the roster, which has both its good points and bad.  He's good for at least one circus catch a game, and has the strength to take the ball away from defenders.  Unfortunately, he's so good at what he does it almost makes it seem like he's the only receiver with any talent at all on the roster at times.  And at 30, it's time to admit he won't be here forever.  The Panthers need to start looking for a replacement, and they need to start now.
• Muhsin Muhammad (36 y.o., 6'2", 215 lbs.) - Moose will be back for another year, but he's no longer good enough to demand a starting role.  He still has the strength and physical nature to fight for position in the middle, and he can still block with the best of them, but he's slowed down to the point that a decent cornerback can all but erase him from the game.  His future with the Panthers is in the slot, if he has one.
• Dwayne Jarrett (23 y.o., 6'4", 219 lbs.) - Jarrett was supposed to be the heir apparent to Muhammad, but it hasn't worked out.  He's got good size and decent speed.  He has great hands, and he can jump and catch just about anything thrown his direction.  But that only gets you part of the way; an NFL receiver needs to run good routes and get separation, and Jarrett has struggled with both.  He also needs to develop a mean streak and add a little intensity to his game.  He's young, and neither is out of the question.  But the Panthers may not wait, if he doesn't show that he gets it in Camp he probably won't be on the roster when the games count.
• Kenneth Moore (24 y.o., 5'11", 195 lbs.) - The knock on local favorite Kenny Moore is that although he's athletic and versatile, he's almost too versatile.  That's a kind way of saying that he's good at a lot of things, but he isn't great at anything.  In a league that demands greatness, just being good enough won't win you a starting job.  Particularly when you don't have great size or speed.  Moore may land on the roster again, but if he does, once more it will be through the lack of a better choice rather than from his play forcing the coaching staff to sit up and take notice.
• Charly Martin (25 y.o., 6'1", 212 lbs.) - Martin is similar to Moore in that neither is capable of starting, but each is just good enough to hold on to a roster spot.  Martin has great hands and will make a catch in traffic.  He's a physical player who will block in the running game, but he doesn't have good speed and can be taken out of the game by a decent Cornerback.  He needs to develop into a deep threat to hold on to his roster spot.
• Dexter Jackson  (23 y.o, 5'9", 182 lbs.) - Jackson is an intriguing case to many fans in the Carolinas.  A local favorite from Appalacian State, he was drafted in the second round in 2008 by the Buccaneers.  In his first season, his play suggested a fear of getting hit, which is a huge sin in the NFL.  He isn't a physical receiver at all, and was a poor fit for the horizontal West-Coast offense ran by John Gruden.  When new coach Raheem Morris installed a vertical passing game, Dexter thought he might have a chance to break free of the bust label, but despite a good training camp he was released at the end of August.  There's no better player to put him next to than Steve Smith, and if any of the physical and fiery nature rubs off the Panthers are going to be in great shape as far as a deep threat is concerned.
  
  Jackson runs a 4.3 40, and is quick getting in and out of the break.  He's very athletic, with good body control and reliable hands.  He can also return kicks, although he still needs to adjust to the speed of the NFL game.  If he's in a system that allows him to get down-field and avoid the more physical confrontations at the line of scrimmage then he could be effective at this level.  He still needs to develop more upper body strength, and he may be a year or two away from becoming anything like an every-down player.  But if he does, and if the skills he showed in college surface on the pro level, he'll be a starter for sure.

There are a few Restricted Free Agents out there who could be possibilities for shoring up the Carolina Receiving Corps., as well as a couple of veterans who might be available if the Panthers decide to make a trade.  With that said, Hurney has never really been about improving the team through trading for veterans, nor is Fox interested in players who bring baggage.  So it's not likely that any of these players end up in Carolina next year.

• Anquan Boldin (29 y.o., 6'1", 217 lbs.) - Boldin is on the radar because he's publically stated that he won't ever sign another contract with the Cardinals, and trade rumors have swirled around his name ever since.  He's incredibly quick, has great hands, works the middle well, and can block like Fox wants.  He's no stranger to hard work, but he's getting older and his physical nature has increasingly resulted in injury problems over the past few years.  What's more, since this is a trade situation Arizona will have some control, and will likely look at AFC teams like Miami or Baltimore as preferred landing spots.
• Steve Breaston (26 y.o. 6'0", 189 lbs.) - Breaston is a Restricted Free Agent, and will probably be given a high tender.  That would put the Panthers in the position where they would need to give up at least their second round pick to grab him, so he may not be worth the cost unless they're in the mood to do some drastic things with their roster this offseason.  Breaston has great hands, is good at getting open, and he runs well after the catch.  His ability to make defenders miss also makes him valuable as a return man.  He's not known for blocking, nor is he physical in general.  That would make him a somewhat poor fit to replace Moose, but his skills as a receiver would make up for it.
• Malcolm Floyd (28 y.o., 6'5", 225 lbs) - The San Diego Chargers will have their hands full retaining Vincent Jackson this offseason, and may be forced to place a lower than desired tender on Floyd as a result.  Floyd has great hands, is physical, blocks well, and gives the Quarterback a big target.  On the downside, he's not fast enough to consistently gain separation or run away from opposing cornerbacks, and he's never been a big play receiver.  But among the Free Agent receivers that the Panthers might be able to lure, he's probably the most like the one they're looking to replace.
• Brandon Marshall (25 y.o., 6'4", 230 lbs.) - Marshall is really included here just to be complete.  He has elite skills, but he's a real pain in the locker room and acts like he always wants to be traded.  The Broncos are willing, for the right offer.  The only way this would happen is if another player was involved, as the Panthers don't have the first round pick that the Broncos will likely demand.  Still, if you can get by his personality, it's nice to think about Marshall lined up opposite Smitty.

And then there are the Unrestricted Free Agents.  This years crop has the usual assortment of damaged goods and old players, but there may be a player worth a contract in there.

• Antonio Bryant (28 y.o., 6'1", 205 lbs.) - Bryant has a lot of natural talent, but he's never really been able to consistently bring it to the field.  One play he'll make a catch that ends up on Sportscenter, the next he'll disappear from sight, running sloppy routes at half speed.  He doesn't block well, and can be a disruption in the locker room.  But with that said, his speed and agility will convince someone to take a chance on him.
• Nate Burleson (28 y.o., 6'0", 198 lbs.) - The Seattle WR has a history of injury problems, which have kept him from achieving his full potential.  He's talented enough, with good speed and quickness, and he has the athleticism necessary to make some acrobatic catches.  Burleson runs well in the open field, displays big-play ability, and he can return kicks.  But he doesn't run routes as well as a receiver with his experience should, and has displayed lapses in concentration in the past.  He might be look promising, but the last injury-prone wide receiver Seahawk the Panthers took a chance on was pretty disappointing, so don't look for this to happen.
• Chris Chambers (31 y.o., 5'11", 210 lbs.) - After nine seasons, Chambers still has good hands and leaping ability, and still gets his catches in streaks.  He's never been consistent, but when he's on his game he's capable of making some outstanding catches.  He's much more comfortable on the sideline than the middle, and despite his age he still has good speed and big play ability.
• Derrick Mason (36 y.o., 5'10", 192 lbs.) - Somehow you expect Mason to once again flip off Father Time and make the tough catches again in 2010.  He's always been an excellent underneath receiver, and has the type of quickness that doesn't seem to disappear with age.  He can't run away from defenders any more, but he uses his experience well to pick apart zones and find openings.  He's tough as nails, but if you seriously consider signing him you may as well start Moose again.
• Terrell Owens (36 y.o., 6'3", 224 lbs.) - Owens may be 36, but he's still good enough to start for most NFL teams.  He's big, strong, quick, and fast.  He'll make tough catches, break tackles, and find a way to the end zone.  He'll also take complaints straight to the media, argue with the coaches, demand to be the first option, and disappear from games where he feels he isn't being used right.  The Panthers already tried Keyshawn, they don't need T.O.
• Donté Stallworth  (29 y.o., 6'0", 200 lbs.) - Stallworth has outstanding speed, and is a deep threat on every play.  He's great on hitches and comeback routes, but can't work the middle of the field and disappears against good cornerbacks.  He also has some attitude issues, but they may be fixed after sitting out for a year due to manslaughter charges.
• Kevin Walter (28 y.o., 6'3", 215 lbs) - Walter isn't special in any way, but he's steady, solid, and reliable.  He uses his size well, runs good routes, and has good hands.  But he can't get consistent separation on his own and is probably as good as he's going to get.  With that said, he still represents an improvement for the Panthers.  However, if he replaced Moose the Panthers would lose a lot of blocking.

In sum, if the Panthers want to improve at Wide Receiver they'll probably have to either give up a draft pick or use one.  And in fact, given their needs they may use more than one.  If they do, they'll probably take one receiver on the first day and another on the second.

As in any draft, there are projects galore available on day two.  If the Panthers get lucky maybe they can find the next Marques Colston in the seventh round.  But that's not something they can count on.  Instead, they need to spend a first day pick on someone who can help immediately, and players like that are in short supply.  At the receiver position especially, if you want anything close to guaranteed first year production you need to look at the high first round, and even then it's not certain.

So they'll have to hope that someone slips down the board, and it needs to be someone who will fit into what the Panthers need.  A player like Marty Gilyard can say all the right things and post good numbers at the combine, but he might not be as attractive an option as you might think because he plays in a spread offense and relies more on straight-line speed than physical play to be effective.  The Panthers won't turn their noses up at a smaller receiver, but the first one they take will probably be more like Moose than Smith in style, just to align better with their needs.

With all that in mind, here are a few possibilities that may be intriguing as first day picks.  Not all will be available, and a lot will change based on what they show at the combine, but if you're putting together your big board now, you want to keep track of them.

• Brandon LaFell, LSU (6'3", 206 lbs.) - LaFell has a big, strong frame and plays a physical brand of football.  He's got great hands and runs well after the catch.  He's good in the clutch, and looks more like Moose than any other prospect.  But he hasn't always been consistent, and although he's strong and fast he doesn't have much of a burst and his routes are inconsistent.  He's not likely to slide to the middle of the second round, but he may be worth trading up for.
• Arrelious Benn, Illinois (6'2", 220 lbs.) - Benn is a real "love him or hate him" prospect.  Some boards have him as a mid first rounder, some have him available in the third.  He's big, physical, fast, and runs well.  He's also a good contributor on special teams.  But he's got hands of stone, he needs to run better routes, and there are questions about his effort.  So he may be available, but he may also have bust written all over him.
• Eric Decker, Minnesota (6'3", 215 lbs.) - Decker will probably be there for the taking in the third, unless he posts some excellent combine numbers.  He's coming off injury, and although his numbers were worth writing home about his speed wasn't.  Still, he's got a great physical style, he's a polished route runner, and best of all he's an outstanding blocker.  If he runs well at the combine, he might even climb into the middle of the second, right where the Panthers first pick is.
• Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas (6'3", 200 lbs.) - The knock on Briscoe is that he played in an offense that tends to inflate stats, and he didn't have to run good routes in it.  That's his major weakness; along with a pedestrian 4.55 speed in the 40 (pedestrian for a WR, that is).  The attraction is his physical style, in the open field he runs more like a running back than a wide receiver, and with his size and strength there's a lot of upside.  He's probably a reach in the second, but may be a value in the third.
• Mike Williams, Syracuse (6'2", 212 lbs.) - Williams is included here because he may be the most athletically gifted wide receiver in the draft.  Then again, he also may be the biggest head case.  He's big, plays physical, he's fast and explosive, he runs well, and he's got good hands.  He was all the offense that Syracuse had until he quit the team midway through the season.  He may be snapped up in the third, he may last until the second day.  But given the Panthers' experience with Mike Goodson, they may be in the mood to take a chance on him.  He's definately a high-risk, high-reward player.

So those are some names, and of course, they're just possibilities.  Every armchair GM out there has their own pet receiver prospect, and their own ideas of who may be available and who may not.  I'm sure a lot of them will come up in the comments.

Fixing the Wide Receiver position is probably going to take more than one season.  But they need to start sometime, and given the state of the roster, it's better to start sooner than later.