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You can Only Sign Peppers OR Davis to a 5 Year Deal...What do You do?

Julius Peppers was interviewed earlier this week and voiced his displeasure with the Panther's ironic "silent treatment."  Are Fox and Hurney sadists?  Are they getting him back for ignoring the 2007 contract offer the Panthers made to him...which would have subsequently made him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL, "but only by a little."  No they are not.  They are making an educated gamble.

"Furney" as I heart to call them, to keep up with the cute modern day metro-sexual name blending movement, had a choice to make.  Peppers or Davis--that is the question.  It appears they have already made their decision, and the winner is Davis.  Why not sign both, you ask, well Furney has a rule, and they are apparently sticking to it.  See me clean up the mess that was these two paragraphs after the jump...

Star-divide

Fox and Hurney have not been very keen on signing two players to lucrative long-term deals in the same year.  They are forced to make a decision on which player to sign, and I think they have made it.  When you also consider that Richard Marshall will be up for a new contract soon, you see why Furney is not going to give the farm to Peppers.  Let's examine why this is the right move, but a move that could come back to bite this team.

Thomas Davis was having an All-Pro type of season before he tore a ligament in his knee.  In fact, he was having a defensive player of the year if-he-does-it-for-a-few-years-to-get-his-name-out-there-type-of-year.  Resigning him, I feel, is the top priority this offseason.  He will command a deal somewhere along the lines of 6 years; $42 million.  The option to pay him whatever the restricted free-agent offer we tag him with is also possible, but they do not want him to even be able to get away, hence the long-term deal.

So with one large extension this offseason, Furney must not feel like they can handle another $15 million/year deal that Peppers is demanding.  They made the choice that many a fan feel they should have made last season:  to cut Peppers loose and sign several role players with the coin saved (along with Thomas Davis).

I agree with their decision.  Thomas Davis is going to impact almost every defensive play by virtue of his speed, skill and the position he plays.  The weak-side linebacker is arguably the most important position in our defensive scheme.  While Peppers may make a few more splash plays (plays that negatively effect the quarterback), Davis is the more valuable player.

This is not without risk.  I say this because in letting Peppers walk, you must be comfortable enough in the remaining defensive ends on the roster.  When you examine the depth behind Peppers, and the depth behind Davis, you will find that Davis is the more "replaceable" of the two.  James Anderson, Davis' backup, came in and played at a very high level when Davis went down.  Anderson is a four year veteran.  Dan Conner is also able to play any of the linebacker positions, and would play well enough on the weak-side in a pinch.

The depth behind Peppers does not instill the same confidence.  Everette Brown looks to be a serviceable player in pass rush situations.  He, at this time, is not a great option on 1st and 2nd down while defending the run.  That leaves Charles Johnson and Hilee Taylor.  Johnson is an interesting player.  He has the potential to be a double-digit sack guy given the chance to be an every-down player.  Johnson is also solid against the run, generally overpowering his man, as he is the strongest guy on the team.  Taylor is still very much unproven at this point.  Tyler Brayton is not under contract and I wont speculate on whether he'll be back.

The other deciding factor would have to be age.  Peppers is 30, Davis is 26, and is about to enter his prime, physically.  Signing Peppers to a long-term deal is operating under the assumption that he will play effectively until his is 35 or 36.  Giving the same long-term deal to Davis is knowing that he will be only 31 or 32 when his contract expires, which is still leaves him with several years of effectiveness beyond the deal.

So given these factors, and any other factors not listed in this post, have the Panthers made the right choice?

The content of these posts are those of the person/idiot making the post only

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Are you a Panthers homer?

Jul 2010 by Cyberjag - 38 comments

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Sign Davis.

Assuming he’ll return to form after he recovers. He tore his knee up and still I heard less bitching from him than Peppers.

by EyeSack on Feb 12, 2010 4:13 PM EST reply actions  

Davis.

Because he’s a beast.

LBPhadDJaxFirst

by Figgi4life on Feb 12, 2010 5:56 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

D-A-V-I-S

Sign davis! Point Blank Period!

by bobbydrake24 on Feb 12, 2010 6:07 PM EST reply actions  

Davis

Ron Meeks’ defense places more responsibility on a strong OLB than a pass rusher.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James The Aussie on Feb 12, 2010 6:43 PM EST reply actions  

Easy call: Davis

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Feb 12, 2010 7:36 PM EST reply actions  

Very easy

Davis.

The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

by Flowing Willow on Feb 13, 2010 8:08 AM EST up reply actions  

I agreed with everyone here T. Davis

this is one of the most easy decisions to make if your M. Hurney b/c T. Davis hasn’t even yet begun to peak or even touch on his true potiental at the OLB and in this R. Meeks, Tampa 2 or modified cover 2 scheme that is the impact position for us. T. Davis was going to be on the Pro Bowl this past if he hadn’t injuried his knee. T. Davis is a RFA unless and very unlikely a new CBA agreement is worked out. Look for him to get a one yr deal and Hurney will take his usual stance on the issue making sure a player can make it back completely from a severe injury involving the knee and or knee ligaments.

Go Panthers and if we were in another type of season with a different CBA agreement then R. Marshall and T. Davis would have already receieved huge contract extentsions. Both players are going to return in 2010 for us Marshall and T. Davis are both going to get 1st & 3rd round tenders. Where as players such as J. King & J. Anderson could get only a 3rd round tender.

Go Cardiac Cats ~

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Feb 13, 2010 10:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Richard Marshall

Love this guy. I think he might be better than Gamble.

by SouthernPanther on Feb 13, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.

by D-Ranged1 on Feb 13, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Davis

he actually wants to be here for one and he fits great in our scheme perfectly

by pantherpride on Feb 12, 2010 10:46 PM EST reply actions  

A NO BRAINER

DAVIS IS THE MAN

YOU CAN GET THE PAW

by the BlackPanther on Feb 13, 2010 9:32 AM EST reply actions  

not even a question

sign davis…he already announced he wants to retire a panther

by SouthernPanther on Feb 13, 2010 11:23 AM EST reply actions  

I think everyone has already put it perfectly.

Davis.

Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.

by D-Ranged1 on Feb 13, 2010 1:32 PM EST reply actions  

I tend to \agree with your assessment of the players, however...

I don’t think that many players will be offered long term deals this off season. In the first place teams can protect their RFA’s relatively cheaply with a one year tender. With no salary cap or bottom, they don’t need long term contracts to manage the cap. And the free agent market is limited both by restrictions applied to the final 8 teams and the fact that teams have to possess the draft pick needed in order to make an offer. That limits the number of RFA’s with first round tenders that can be signed by another team to 24.

But I don’t think that it will reach that high a number. If there is a work stoppage in 2011 it will be because of a management lockout. Players signing new long term contracts are going to want to ensure that they get paid at least part of their money even if there is a lockout. One way to do this would be a roster bonus that kicked in pre-season. Owners, understandably, would not want to do this. In addition to the money being wasted if there is no season, if enough players get paid whether they have a season or not, it would undermine the owners leverage of threatening a lockout.

by gripbd on Feb 13, 2010 1:45 PM EST reply actions  

Excellent analysis of the upcoming labor dispute.

I just posted an article on mocking the draft which sorted through this very issue( here).

I don’t understand why you don’t Franchise Peppers and Transition Tag Davis. Or Use the highest RFA tender on Davis and then match whatever offer comes through. Maybe the demand is there for a player like Davis but I bet not many teams are going to be placing big dough + draft picks out there for players this year.

Winning is not everything but it sure feels like it sometimes

by lifelongvike on Feb 15, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Frank Reich

In mother Russia no one can hear you scream.... or is that space?...now that I think about it, it's definitely space....

by mad_dog_maddux on Feb 17, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Daniel Boone

"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn

by Revshawn on Feb 17, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Bob Knight?

The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

by Flowing Willow on Feb 19, 2010 1:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Peppers

He is a freak of nature and has been in Carolina too long to throw out. Sign Pep and make him happy, then trade Davis before his contract is up for high picks. OLB’s seem to be a dime-a-dozen in the draft these days. (Jerry Hughes-TCU, would become a great backer, Cushing, Matthews, Orakpo, etc) I love both players, but I just can’t let Pep leave.

by mives36 on Feb 14, 2010 4:59 PM EST reply actions  

Easy - Thomas Davis

It’s not even close to being a tough call. He’s cheaper, fits perfectly in Meeks’ system, and WANTS to be here.

Thomas Davis all day long over Peppers.

by bwsmith25 on Feb 16, 2010 5:36 PM EST reply actions  

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