Using the numbers posted earlier this week in the Charlotte Observer the strength of schedules (SoS) of the four teams in contention for the #1 pick going into week 15 are as follows:
Det: 109 wins
Cin: 110 wins
Car: 112 wins
Buf: 113 wins
(in the Observer article they show the current SoS not counting teams we have yet to play so I had to add their records in as we are going to have a hard time getting out of playing the rest of the season)
Indianapolis over Tennessee- Hooray!!! This already happened. Indy is on Cin’s schedule giving them +1. Tenn is on no one’s schedule.
Minnesota over NY Giants - Giants are on our schedule and Detroit’s but Minnesota is on Detroit’s twice and Buf once. If Minnesota wins +1 Buf +2 Det
Washington over Tampa- Washington plays Det. Tampa plays us twice so we want them to lose or it is +2 to the Panthers. If Washington wins +1 Det but more importantly Panthers don’t gain 2.
St. Louis over New Orleans- St. Louis plays Det. As with the Tampa game if a Panthers division rival loses we don’t gain two. If St. Louis wins +1 Det.
Denver over Arizona- AZ plays us. Denver plays no one. If Denver wins we don’t gain one.
New England over Chicago- This one is tougher to analyze as all the relevant teams are in play. New England plays Cin and Det once and Buff twice. Chicago plays Panthers and Buff once and Det twice. A NE win is +1 Cin, +1 Det, +2 Buff. A Chicago win is +1 Panthers, +1 Buff, +2 Det. We do the same relative to Det either way but a NE win helps us against the other two.
KC v. SD- KC win +1 Buff; SD win +1 Cin.
Baltimore v. Houston- A Baltimore win give Panther +1, Buf +1 but Cin +2 . A Houston win does nothing.
Now my brain is mush just in time to do some real work. Hopefully this is helpful in knowing how we want the games to come out. Let me know if I missed anything.
Now use your collective rooting power to make it happen.
Since most people here would like a win and the #1 pick, SoS of the two win teams is relevant. Below are games that are most relevant to the SoS analysis. Obviously we would like Cin, Det or Buf to win so it hardly merits mentioning. Here is how we may want the other games to play out.