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Blogger Q & A: Bears vs. Panthers

EAST RUTHERFORD NJ - OCTOBER 03:  Ahmad Bradshaw #44 of the New York Giants runs with the ball against Julius Peppers #90 of the Chicago Bears who attempts a four finger tackle at New Meadowlands Stadium on October 3 2010 in East Rutherford New Jersey.  (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)

This weeks edition of Blogger Q & A features Dane Noble from Windy City Gridiron. Dane has provided not only detailed questions to our probing questions but has quite a bold prediction for the game at the end. Let's get started.

Question 1: You had a nice start to the season at 3-0 but then the Giants went sack happy. Was that simply a bad game by your offensive line or is pass protection a serious concern for the Bears? Which player(s) are most guilty of allowing the sack-fest? 

Dane: In short-order: Yes/ Yes/ All of them.  The Chicago Bears OL troubles are nothing new, but it does seem like 2010 is much worse than the last few years.  We used to worry about having John St. Clair or Orlando Pace on the field, but this year no one across the board is stepping up.  The first three games (Lions, Cowboys, Packers) saw Cutler get in trouble early in the game, only to have OL coach Mike Tice and OC Mike Martz be able to make in-game adjustments to compensate for the lack of performance.  They started running a lot of cuts, traps, misdirections, pulls, 1/2 step drop passes, etc, and we were able to keep those teams off balance.  But, that didn't happen when we played the Giants.  Whether it was a lack of adjustments on our coaches part, or the fact that the Giants front four are just that good... either way, we had two QBs knocked out of the game.  And, just like last year, we have huge OL problems to start the year, so we cut a starting DE and replace him with someone else. 

This plays into the Panthers need to get pressure to protect their secondary as well.

Question 2: QB Jay Cutler has taken a lot of criticism prior to this season but has looked pretty good so far in 2010. Has he done enough to ease Bears fans fears that they overpaid for the Cutler? 

Dane: I don't think there are many Bears fans who ever thought we overpaid for Cutler.  There were plenty of people who aren't fans of the Bears who love to say we overpaid (Cutler is an easy target for people to not like him), but honestly, take a look at 1st Round draft picks in the last 10 years for the Bears, and tell me what you see.  A LOT of swings and misses.  So, we essentially used a couple of first rounders to draft a very talented and intelligent QB.  Does Cutler still have work to do to get better?  Sure.  But the good news is he has yet to peak. 

That has to be frustrating for a fan base to see high draft picks repeatedly not pan out. That makes me appreciate Panthers GM Marty Hurney.

Star-divide



Question 3: I saw Cutler sustained a concussion against the Giants as well. If he cannot go this weekend who will start and what does that mean for the Bears offense? 

Dane: We've got two other QBs on the roster... NFL journeyman Todd Collins, and perennial backup Caleb Hanie.  Hanie has been with the Bears for a few years now, and everone likes what they see in him.  He got injured in the preseason (shoulder), and wasn't even active until Collins got knocked out of the Giants game with a stinger.  If Cutler can't go Sunday, we'll probably see Hanie.  He's got a great arm, and seems to be a sharp kid.  The unfortunate part of being a backup QB in a Martzfense is that you never, ever get any reps with the first string during practice.  So, Collins and Hanie have both been relegated to the scout teams this year.  Cutler has been cleared by doctors to return to practice, so we'll see what happens Sunday.  It will likely be a game time decision.

Word is Cutler is practicing so I think this answer is a moot point. Cutler will play Sunday.

Question 4: When I look at defensive stats I'm surprised to see your secondary ranked #27 (6th against the run though). What type of passing game should the Panthers deploy to take advantage of the Bears secondary? 

Dane: Our defensive backs are at the mercy of our pass rush.  Sure, that sounds cliche, but for the Bears, it is absolutely true.  Our DBs do not have the talent to sustain coverage downfield, so if the Panthers want to move the ball, bring in an extra pass blocker or two and give the WRs time to run their routes.  The best thing our DBs have done this season is hit people.  Danieal Manning, Chris Harris... they've been playing the run very agressively, and made WRs pay when going over the middle.  No doubt the Panthers coaching staff has noticed that.

Boy does that problem sound familiar.

Question 5: Last I have the obvious question, are you happy with your offseason Panther acquisitions in Julius Peppers and Chris Harris? Is Peppers everything you thought you were getting? 

Dane: Julius Peppers has been a one man wrecking crew through the first four games.  He's getting great support from our LB corp, but he is dominating opposing OTs.  To quote a Bears beat writer recently "The surprise will come when Peppers DOESN'T play like the 91 Million Dollar Man."  So far, so great.  As far as Harris goes, he's been who we thought he was.  He's destroyed people in the open field, and been decent in pass coverage.  But, his biggest asset is his run support... he's like having an extra linebacker at times.

Since Peppers gets to pick which side he wants to line up on, we can expect for him to line up on Schwartz most of the game and avoid his old practice buddy Jordan Gross. Besides, we know how pep loves to pad his stats against the average Joe's.

Got a game prediction Dane?  Oh boy.  It all depends on the health of Cutler, and whether the other guys will show up on our DL.  I'll go with The Superfans on this one:

Bill - Traveling to Carolina should be emotional for Mr. Peppers, but I don't expect that big of a game from him, due to constant triple teaming, which should lead to a big game from Israel Idonije.
Carl - Izzy will get it done.
Pat - Yes, and I can see Chris Harris making himself at home with a few forced fumbles and a pick or two, and a final of 46 -0.
Bill -
Wow.  That is exactly what I was going to say.

All - Da Bears!

Classic! I have to say that sets the record for biggest blow out prediction.

Thanks Dane for sharing!

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I wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers aren’t plugging Schwarts in somewhere else in the line… maybe trying Morris out in his spot to help against Peppers… then there’s the reliable fact that Peppers takes plays off. He may show up but might not be a factor.

Don’t forget, the Panthers D is no slouch. If they can get pressure against Cutler then all bets are off.

I’m thinking it’ll be a good game. There’s history with Harris and Peppers coming back and playing with a chip on their shoulders… but Beason, Connor, Anderson, and the rest also have chips… especially against Peppers… and they’ll be taking them out on the Bears Offense.

by scorpion12 on Oct 7, 2010 8:37 AM EDT reply actions  

He hasn't really been taking plays off this season.

I don’t imagine he’d choose this game to start.

If I did what I love for a living, what would I do in my free time?

Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers

by Kev H on Oct 7, 2010 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

We watched Peppers for 8 years play for the Panthers. He NEVER went through an entire season playing lights out. He’s done it for 4 games so far. It’s his time to take off. He’s already been paid for the year.

by scorpion12 on Oct 7, 2010 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think Kev means that

it’s highly doubtful that Peppers chooses this game to take off.

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by David Taylor on Oct 7, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I have to agree

If Peppers was going to take a day off, it won’t be against the Panthers. That much I can guarantee. The Panthers O-line will have a job on their hands just keeping Clausen upright.

Let's go Panthers, 2010 is our year!

by Tarheel Soldier on Oct 7, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice Q&A Jax

Any other time, I would want to punch him in the face for the 46-0 prediction, the fact that he used the “Superfans” to do it makes it tolerable.

"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you." ~ David Foster Wallace

My Panthers Blog | My Twitter Page

by BW Smith on Oct 7, 2010 8:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Haha.

Dane’s a funny dude, and it’s definitely all in good fun. This is his answer to a question on Big Blue View from last week. It got them pretty fired up.

BBV: If you could take one player off the Giants roster and put him in your lineup, who would it be? Why?

WCG: Great question. I’d probably say Eli Manning, because it would be nice to have a solid #2 QB behind Jay Cutler.

And thinking about it now, the foreshadowing of the answer is kinda creepy.

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by David Taylor on Oct 7, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

To be fair

It really would’ve been nice to have Eli as a backup last week. :(

If I did what I love for a living, what would I do in my free time?

Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers

by Kev H on Oct 7, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

46-0. Yeah right. I think our defense holds up better than that and our offense scores more points than they did last week. Clausen’s only learning more and continuing to improve. The first 3 games were lost by 13 points… the fourth was by a couple of points. the team’s improving and this game could be the catalyst that ignites them for the rest of the season.

by scorpion12 on Oct 7, 2010 8:48 AM EDT reply actions  

The Spirit of Ditka

The Spirit of Ditka can most similarly be described by relating it to the Force, from Star Wars. (The force in the original trilogy, when it was cool and mystical, not the byproduct of a blood disease.)

It flows through us all and some of us are just more in tune with it than others.

If I did what I love for a living, what would I do in my free time?

Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers

by Kev H on Oct 7, 2010 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

You may have the force, but we have...

THE SCHWARTZ!!!

"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you." ~ David Foster Wallace

My Panthers Blog | My Twitter Page

by BW Smith on Oct 7, 2010 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

“Nah, [you] got the upside, I got the downside. See there’s two sides to every Schwartz.”

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by David Taylor on Oct 7, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Never underestimate the power of the Schwartz!

"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you." ~ David Foster Wallace

My Panthers Blog | My Twitter Page

by BW Smith on Oct 7, 2010 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

No disrespect

But I’m somewhat confused about Peppers being a one man wrecking crew. The Bears have the same number of sacks as the Panthers (4) (Peppers 2) despite facing 20 more dropbacks than the Panthers. Are your other defensive lineman not getting the job done or is there no blitzing? Only 1 team has less sacks than the Panthers and Bears. So it doesn’t seem like either team is getting the job done. I also couldn’t find a stat on hurries so I don’t know how many near sacks your guys have. Thanks.

by sperk on Oct 7, 2010 9:23 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm going to go ahead and answer for them... because I know how it will go

It isn’t all about the number of sacks with Peppers, but how disruptive he is. He is constantly effecting plays in ways that can’t be measured on a box score.

Pep is a ‘one man wrecking crew’ because he gets into the backfield on almost every down forcing players to make bad plays even if he isn’t making the play himself.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Oct 7, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Great form.

And you’re exactly right. Peppers is in the backfield just about every play, causing a ton of hurries, hits, false starts, etc. Sacks are wonderful, but aren’t everything. I do think he’s gonna end up with a multi-sack performance very, very soon.

Sperk’s right about one thing, our other DL are not getting the job done. In fact, we just released Mark Anderson, who was one of the co-starters opposite Pep.

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by David Taylor on Oct 7, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not to mention the constant double and triple-teams he faces

which opens up lanes for other players on the defense to make plays.

by Charlotte Bobcat on Oct 7, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

which theoretically opens up lanes

Lanes only exist if the other linemen see them. We don’t see them.

If I did what I love for a living, what would I do in my free time?

Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers

by Kev H on Oct 7, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, I think Panther fans never really appreciated Peppers "disruptive" ability.

Some of this may simply be that the Panthers fanbase is somewhat immature due to the Panthers still being a relatively young franchise. Panthers fans seem to base everything on the “number of sacks” that a player gets, like somehow that was his only job. Chicago fans have a much longer history and seem to have a deeper understanding that a person can be a productive team member even without a fantastic stat line, especially on defense. This year in 4 games for the Bears he’s forced two fumbles, blocks a FG attempt. got two sacks, and caused all types of issues in the backfield for teams. His sacks and tackle numbers aren’t much different from Charles Johnson’s, but the two force fumbles and a blocked kick are huge plays.

The reality is, Peppers historical numbers are pretty good. Yes, he put up bigger numbers against weaker teams, but that’s what makes them weaker teams. Good teams schemed against him, making sure there was help on his side, leveraging his weakness against the run, etc. and so he didn’t get as many sacks, but he still had many big plays in some of those games. If you hurry a QB into a 3 yard dump-off on 3rd and 7, you still did your job.

Peppers will enjoy additional success against the NFC North because teams haven’t played him twice a years for the last 8 years. As time passes, they’ll learn his weaknesses (his biggest probably being run support) and they’ll learn to exploit them.

The biggest problem I had with Peppers was that I didn’t think his performances made him far and away the best DE in football or anything, yet he seemed to want to be paid like they did. I thought he was certainly better than average at the position, but highest paid defensive player in the league? That seemed like it wasn’t a very good value, especially when managing against a salary cap.

by ProudPanther on Oct 7, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Every defense of Peppers makes sense on paper

But when people present the ‘disruptive’ argument I counter with the fact that he wasn’t top 10 in sacks, QB pressures or QB hits last year. So as easy as it is to characterize the fan base as ‘immature’ but every metric we have for measuring just how much of an impact a player has on the QB shows that he is left wanting.

Julius Peppers is a great player, I’ve just never bought this ‘Top DE in the NFL’ moniker, or even top 5 because guys like Dwight Freeney, Jared Allen etc. don’t even need to be defended with the ‘disruptive’ argument, because they already are disruptive AND they get the sack numbers to prove it.

The bark of Julius Peppers has always been greater than his bite. His influence on a game is more about the fear of him coming off the edge than anything he does on game day.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Oct 7, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would argue then

to take a look at the Packers game. They held him on nearly every play. That’s where the disruptive argument comes from. A lot of the plays where he got held, if he didn’t, Aaron Rodgers was doomed.

If I did what I love for a living, what would I do in my free time?

Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers

by Kev H on Oct 7, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I completely understand...

But herein lies the issue: It assumes that no other DE in the NFL is subjected to the same issues on Sunday. Personally, I think any of the top DEs (and yes, Julius is one of them… I just don’t think top 5) are held on plays, doubled, chipped and every other technique the OL can use because most of these guys will be 1 on 1 coverage.

However, because Pepper’s ability is never fully backed up by tangible statistics I think his lack of stats is justified by arguments you can apply to any number of defensive ends.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Oct 7, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

End of 1st paragraph should read: “most of these guys will be deadly in 1 on 1 coverage”

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Oct 7, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

What stat's don't back it up?

He’s been in the top 10 in sacks for DL every year that he’s been in the league except 2, most of the time top 5. He’s blocked more kicks than any player in the league, and is consistently one of the highest in the league in forced fumbles. What other DE’s have better stats consistently?

by ProudPanther on Oct 7, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

It might not be immaturity in the fanbase, that was just a theory.

I actually find most of the group here at CSR pretty good, but look at the comments on some other forums to see the immaturity. Maybe that’s with every team though.

Still, it feels like judging everything with a stat line is simply not very mature. Do you not watch the games? Do you not see blocked kicks (Peppers is like 2nd all time in blocked kicks). Do you not see him chasing QB’s to the sideline? Yes, when the QB get’s there and dumps the ball OOB that’s not a sack, but it still happened. It’s still a dead play.

Also, sacks are not the only thing on the stat sheet. You said Peppers wasn’t in the top 10 last year in sacks, and you’re right, but if you compare actual peers (other DL’s) he was 6th, and there’s plenty more to his stat line like the following:

Passes Defended: 7 (2nd in DL)
Interceptions: 2 (1st in DL)
Forced Fumbles: 5 (tied for 1st among DL’s)

Those are pretty good numbers right there, that’s 7 turnovers. Those are “disruptive” and those still don’t include the plays where a QB dumped it OOB because of an imminent sack, or chased a RB out of bounds on a sweep, or pressured a QB. Yes, there’s no official stat for QB pressures that I know of, but you can see them happen, and some people consider them important (mostly people that know football pretty well, like coaches). In a recent Chicago Sun Times article they mentioned that the Bears had 22 QB pressures through the GB game, that’s pretty good. If you read many recent Bears articles you can see the writers there appreciate the “disruptive” behavior where here it was just brushed off.

Still, I think I see that we’re in agreement that he certainly didn’t distinguish himself as the unequivocal “Top DE in the NFL”. But was he “Top 10”? Probably so.

by ProudPanther on Oct 7, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those are "disruptive" and those still don’t include the plays where a QB dumped it OOB because of an imminent sack, or chased a RB out of bounds on a sweep, or pressured a QB.

As I mentioned before he wasn’t top 10 in QB pressures (which accounts for the OOB throws and pressures) nor was he top 10 in QB hits (measuring being just late for a sack).

There are lots of things Peppers does well… like chasing the RB out of bounds like you mentioned, but Peppers isn’t a top guy at getting to the QB.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Oct 7, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Please point me to these stats.

As far as I know, most places that track these things consistently rank Peppers very high in QB pressures. For example, these preliminary stats from Football Outsiders from last year list Peppers as 5th in QB hurries:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2010/stat-day-quarterback-hurries

I’ve seen other numbers in the past and he always seems to be listed pretty high, especially when compared to other DL’s.

by ProudPanther on Oct 7, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's one season in isolation

Last year I used pro football focus to break Peppers down per snap (not per game) since 2004, sadly they have now moved that site to a paid subscription that I wont pay for and I’m looking for the post now.

From what I found from 2004-2009 was a pattern of inconsistency, I also found that in his young career Charles Johnson had a comparable number of QB hurries to Peppers based on a per snap analysis

He’s not ‘consistently’ high, he was unusually high last year… curiously enough a contract year.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Oct 7, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really wish those stats were publicly available.

Because, while I understand the inconsistency issue, I’m curious if you also compared other DE’s. I suspect that many of them have “breakout years” and then more subdued years as it’s the nature of the position since it’s balanced with the play of the rest of the defense. Also, some years to get nicked and don’t play as well, or other DL issues allow teams to focus more on a single player.

Also, if you took out his obviously down 2007 year, what did things look like then?

Oh well, doesn’t really matter, he’s gone, and most of us are happy (even I’m happy because I thought he wanted too much money and it was a distraction hearing about it every year). The Bears fans seem happy too, so if everyone is happy, that’s good.

by ProudPanther on Oct 7, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm looking for the posts now... sadly they were actually in the comment sections of other Peppers related topics which is making it hard to find

I did two.

One in which I compared Julius Peppers to Jared Allen, Dwight Freeney, Justin Tuck, Trent Cole and John Abraham and another in which I compared him to Tyler Brayton, Everette Brown and Charles Johnson as a ‘can they do it by committee?’ post.

I agree, most everyone is happy.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Oct 7, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, I think I might remember that post as well.

I was just a lurker back then, mostly still am. I’ll have to go back and take a look.

by ProudPanther on Oct 7, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I remember that post..

And you’re dead on in your point.

I’m saddened that PFF moved to subscriptions. It was just last year that I remember reading on their forums something along the lines of “we’re a free service and plan to stay that way”. HA.

Overall Panthers Draft Grade: A

by D-Ranged1 on Oct 7, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just checked PFF and I'm honestly shocked...

They want $90 for their subscription.

Ninety dollars.

For the barely understandable drivel that they produce, they want $90?

Are they freaking insane?

Pro-Football Reference has good stats, though I don’t know if they go as in-depth as QB Pressures or not, and the basic stats are free there.

"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you." ~ David Foster Wallace

My Panthers Blog | My Twitter Page

by BW Smith on Oct 7, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Peppers = Randy Moss

Without extra motivating factors, like Peppers has this weekend against his old team, Peppers plays a lot like Randy Moss. If Peppers does not get in the flow of the game, he can totally disappear. If he gets going, watch out.

If you watched the Bears games this year, Peppers has clearly been a disruptive force. As Panthers fans we discount the "disruptive" ability because the coaching staff would only talk about how disruptive Peppers was after games where he was clearly not disruptive.

by NMHesq on Oct 7, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Uh- oh I see trouble

 I can see Clausen getting his “WELCOME TO THE NFL” hit which he has yet to recieve. If Peppers plays anygame with 100% you can bet it will be this one against a team he thinks “Didn’t want him”. Clausen you better attach a side view mirror to that helmet or have someone yelling in your ear through a ear piece to dump that ball- Blindside here we come :) Other then that the BEARS SUCK, Our D should have many picks and hopefully win the game for us.

by justanotherfact on Oct 7, 2010 9:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Peppers....

This will be the first time in Peppers career that he PLAYS HARD A FULL GAME AT BOA STADIUM…..HE WILL PUT UP A DOMINANT GAME…..BBBUUUUTTTT, I believe it will be a low scoring game with Clausen getting around 200yds and a score and i think its time for J.Stew to come out and play….I AM PRAYING THAT HE STIFF ARMS OR TRUCKS MR. PEPPERS (JUST LIKE HE DID BARBER)…………………..ALL IN ALL, ITS TIME FOR SOME OPTIMISM AROUND HERE..GO PANTHERS!!

by pantherfan2005 on Oct 7, 2010 10:16 AM EDT reply actions  

Granted I'm not a Panthers fan, but...

What about week 15 of last year against the Vikings?

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by David Taylor on Oct 7, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

oh yea i forgot about that ONE time….but it was on National TV so it was just like he was auditioning for other teams so it dont count!!

by pantherfan2005 on Oct 7, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, plus he was being compared to Jared Allen.

He’s always taken offense to the notion that he takes plays off and that Jared Allen plays hard every play, every game. He just had something to prove that game.

Let's go Panthers, 2010 is our year!

by Tarheel Soldier on Oct 7, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

And the season was already toast at that point

Where was he against the Cardinals, or the Seahawks in 2005? Or the Patriots game last season when a win could of helped us towards the playoffs?

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by Jaxon on Oct 8, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

like I said...

I don’t really watch Panthers games, I was just arguing the “only time he plays a full game at BOA.” That’s just the game I knew of, not following the team.

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by David Taylor on Oct 8, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm predicting 2 interceptions for Cutler this week.

I’m predicting we drop 12 passes that could be intercepted. I think this game Chicago fans will be dying for Peppers to come up big against his old team, but he’ll be pretty mediocre. I don’t think Fox will run a lot plays to his side so they can minimize his impact. I think Clausen will continue his improvement, protecting the ball like a QB should. I can see him getting blindsided and fumbling though. But, like a true Panthers fan, in the end, I’m thinking we pull of the upset and build on the confidence we established against the Saints last week.

Panthers 21
Bears 17

by Charlotte Bobcat on Oct 7, 2010 10:23 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

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