Is Panthers Top 10 Defense for Real?
Using Football Outsiders statistics the Panthers defense moved up from 16th to 10th in overall defense after last weeks loss. So is the ranking a mirage? FO uses a calculation they call DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
Let's look at the numbers:
Panther defensive rankings:
- 10th in defensive DVOA at -7.2% (negative is better)
- 23rd against the pass
- 6th against the run
- 9th in yards per drive allowed at 25.86.
So can we draw anything positive from this? It's interesting that the run defense is better than the pass defense since that was our primary concern exiting the offseason. The Panthers are 0-3 and have played from behind most of the season resulting in the second highest run plays against (94). Though the defense is defending run plays more than anyone they are playing lights out against the run, a tribute to the play of the front seven against the run.
The counter argument could be that given the lack of a pass rush teams have simply found it easier to throw on the Panthers. If passing works then why run? So lets look a little deeper at the type of receivers that are hurting the Panthers:- 8th against #1 WRs
- 13th against #2 WRs
- 24th against Other WRs (slot)
- 31st against TEs
- 8th against running backs
So clearly the Panthers struggle covering slot receivers and TE's, not a huge surprise for most of you I bet. If you consider who is typically covering these players the weak link in the secondary becomes a little more clear. Though I think our LBers have been lights out against the run they are struggling to cover TE's. Players like Kellen Winslow and Jermaine Gresham have killed us.This is some thing we miss from LB Thomas Davis who has the size and speed to cover elite TE's.
The slot receiver is usually covered by the nickel or dime CB. One thing I noticed from attending the Bengals game is in most cases the Panthers use Marshall over the slot receiver and Hudson at the dime in their pass prevent defense.
Now the defensive line stats:
- 2nd against the run
- 32nd in sack rate
- 9th against runs to the left end (C. Johnson)
- 6th against runs over LDT (E. Johnson)
- 2nd on runs up middle or off guard (Johnson/Landri)
- 7th on runs over RDT (Landri)
- 23rd on runs at RDE (Brayton/Brown)
Again, the weak link becomes clear, at least against the run. Its not unusual for the RDE to be more of a pass rush specialist being on the QBs blind side and less of a run stopper but we aren't getting the pass rush either.
All of these stats match up with my perception of what I have seen on the field, giving credence to FO's calculations.
Thoughts?
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Not too surprising really...
We’ve held backs to around what… 3 yard per carry in almost every game? I think we had outing where they were closer to 2 yards per carry.
I’m also not terribly surprised that our pass D is the weak link. When you think about how teams have beaten us it’s been through the air. They haven’t been able to run very effectively on us, but still haven’t been able to stop them. That’s troubling to me because our whole idea is to stop the run stop the run stop the run. If teams can beat us without the run, then our entire gameplan is worthless.
I attribute this to the changing league. It’s a much more pass friendly, pass oriented league now than it was 30 or 40 years ago. The philosophies we employ are a bit antiquated in that sense.
First, I'm surprised to see that the defense is playing well enough to earn a top 10 overall ranking...
Not because I don’t think they’ve played well, but because the offense has been so anemic. Obviously, we miss TD (get well soon). But we’re not the only team that has problems covering TEs (see Saints).
What stands out is the sack rate (32nd). Who’da thunk it after our preseason? Are we selling out to stop the run at the expense of getting to the QB? Don’t make me say we miss a certain DE. If we don’t pressure Brees, he’ll eat us alive. Especially now with Lancey in the slot.
It looks to me like we need to make a few tweaks to get more sacks, hurries, hits. Not many QBs can throw from their ass – just look at our own QBs. We need to mix things up occasionally and show new blitz packages that the opponent hasn’t seen, especally on 3rd downs.
Where there’s a will… I want to be in it.
I think the pass rush
has to be a lot better before we talk up this defense. At the moment the ranking is a little misleading because of some of the breaks that we have had despite having poor pressure.
If the pass-rush does improve however than we could be a top ten defense. We just need to be able to generate pressure with just the 4 guys up front.
im not sure
One thing to remember about those numbers id they are still taking in to account some of the preseason. I think at this point it weight about 25% on the stats.
But still moving up from 16 to 10 does show progress. Either that or everyone else just sucked last week.
If you really want to do something, you will find a way. If you don't, you will find an excuse.
by LittleKing on Oct 2, 2010 4:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Preseason?
With our sack count in the preseason, how could we have finished 32nd in that category if the preseason had any impact?
I apologize
I was wrong, I was thinking about the DAVE rating they calculate at this point in the year.
If you really want to do something, you will find a way. If you don't, you will find an excuse.
Feeling kinda pessimistic after the NC State loss so...
No. We suck and once they face a real offensive juggernaut the true Panthers defense will be revealed. Mwahahaha!
I'm not suprised at all.
For the amount of turnovers our offense has given to the other team and the amount of time our defense has spent on the field, I think to say that we have performed well has to be the greatest understatement of the century.
You want to fix the pass defense? Kick Godfrey out of the defensive lineup and bring back Chris Harris. Seriously. That’s the quickest way to fix it right there. He is the weakest leak in this defense, despite his giftwrap interceptions he keeps getting for some reason. Almost all of the deep throws against Hakeem Nicks in the backfield was because Godfrey was ‘defending’ against him by being a mile away in front of the guy he’s supposed to have the over coverage on. He improved a bit in the game against the Bengals, but he looked much better than he should have been because Carson was throwing so horribly and he wound up with 2 interceptions.
Honestly, we’re not doing too bad in pass defense though. 207 yards per game. That’s pretty good in my book, almost Top 10.
"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
In case anybody missed it
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/13658/panthers-bucs-leading-in-one-category
on how the defenses [are doing] when they used four or fewer pass rushers.
…
The Carolina Panthers are right on Tampa Bay’s heels in these situations. The Panthers rank No. 3 in this category, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 60.5 rating.
If you really want to do something, you will find a way. If you don't, you will find an excuse.
and the most games we can win now is 13.
we’re also 13th in total passing yards allowed.
We’re playing the Saints today on Oct 3. October is the 10th month…10+3=13
This is crazy!!!
"The game of life is a lot like football. You have to tackle your problems, block your fears, and score your points when you get the opportunity." - Lewis Grizzard
by ThePanthers! on Oct 3, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec'd
Great post, I love the way you broke it down. Everything fits with whats happening on gameday. To me its funny that our preseason worries were stopping the run, and its what we are best at(for right now at least). We have got to start getting some pass rush from someone, I dont care who it is. At times the secondary looks terrible and the rest of the time is spent looking average at best. Im still not a big fan of the Meeks tampa 2 defense, but I hope they can get it together and turn my opinion around.
Great break down !
Your stats against receivers by position is interesting. I’m not a stats guy but over at CSC there are guys that spit out every stat for everything down to the number of hot dogs sold off the top of their head. Still have never seen that one. More to the point , it doesn’t bode well for your Cats. Saints are very good using slot and TE receivers. We will see shortly. Do think Cats will match up and play better against this Saints team [ injuries ] than anyone gives them credit for. Think the points are stupid and Saints don’t cover 14. But do win.
Geaux Saints !
by saints-fan-in-miss on Oct 3, 2010 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

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