Panthers vs Saints Matchups: It's Hunting Season for the Panthers in 2010!

by Revshawn on Jan 2, 2010 8:53 PM EST Comment 20 comments

Tomorrow should be a time for slaughter. Today the Saints have let out that they shall err on the side of caution this week and rest Brees, netting him the NFL record for pass percentage completion. 70.6 over Bengal's great Ken Anderson's 70.55 set in 1982.

As a Panthers fan, I would like to sincerely thank the Saints for allowing us the opportunity to crush your souls underfoot this week. Drew Brees is the best weapon on the team, and he's going to be sitting on the bench the entire game. Do you really think that Mark Brunell, a 39 year old guy who hasn't started a game in 3 years, will be able to save them? Not likely. People worry about the rust on Brees going into the playoffs, but what about just this game coming up? Mark Brunell's has so much rust on him he probably moves like a statue by now.

The Panthers are destined to win this game and go 8-8. The Saints will be without key starters on their offense in WR Lance Moore, RB Pierre Thomas, and probably TE Jeremy Shockey along with many other players on defense as they struggle to get healthy for the playoffs. The Saints will have to depend heavily on Heisman winner Reggie Bush to carry the load, but he's already shown that he has trouble being the main back. The Panthers run defense will be tested early and often, and as long as they can shut him down and get their offense firing early, they should have no problems overrunning the cautious Saints and winning by double digits.

Panthers Run Defense vs Reggie Bush

The Saints have already been down the road of trying to make Reggie Bush their main back, and it hasn't been pretty. The last 3 years he's averaged under 4 yards per carry and never lived up to the hype he had coming out of USC. As long as the Panthers play 7-8 people in the box and keep him from reaching the edge, they should have no trouble shutting him down between the tackles, and therefore stop their running game.

Panthers Pass Defense vs Mark Brunell

Exit stage left Drew Brees, enter stage right Mark Brunell. He's a 39 year old veteran well past his prime. While other older QB's like Brett Favre and Kurt Warner have come out of the rocking chair and been pretty successful, I don't expect that kind of play from Mark Brunell this week. He's 3 years removed from starting an NFL game, and he's been on and off during the entire preseason. Threw 2 good games against the Bengals and Texans, and threw a couple of stinkers against the Raiders and Miami.

Julius Peppers needs to come into this game ready to play. He needs to show the NFL why he's so good at his craft. Mark Brunell needs to be forced into making mistakes, and Julius Peppers is just what the doctor ordered. Whether or not he shows up next year in a Panthers uniform, I expect him to show up this game and show Mark Brunell the fine dining that the turf has to offer.

Panthers O-Line vs Saints D-Line

Very quietly, Saint's DE Will Smith has put up a Pro-Bowl worthy season, 13 sacks and constant pressure at his position. They'll surely move him around to both DE positions to frighten our O-Line, and it'll be up to backups Geoff Swartz and Travelle Wharton to stop them.

It will be a great help to us in this matchup to call a balanced game. As long as we don't revert to a pure passing game like we've done in the past, then this star DE will have other things to worry about other than purely rushing the passer. If we call a good game, and Matt can continue to escape the pocket when he's under threat, we'll do pretty well in this upcoming game.

Moose and Moore vs Saint's CB's

With Steve Smith out because of injury, the best chance the Panthers have of making the pass game work is reviving the Moore to Moore connection we had going during the pre-season. Dwayne Jarrett has been a total bust, so this is a fine time to evaluate Moore and find how if he has #2 or #3 talent for the future. He's only an inch higher than Steve Smith, and his 4.47, 40 time and 28 inch jump vertical is nothing to boast about, but he's shown great chemistry with Moore in the past so we'll get to see where he fits for next year.

Moose on the other hand, he's going to have to show us what he was. Moose is expected to be the #1 option with Smith hitting the bench. Does he still have the tools to gain separation and get open? With the Saints expected to load the box, he'll have to be successful in order for us to truly begin our romp of the Saints.

Panthers Special Teams vs Reggie Bush

Somehow, I feel like our special teams are going to give us one last reason to fire Danny Crossman during the off-season. Throughout the years, he's only given us mediocre unit after mediocre. Constant dropped punts, bad blocking along the line, and long return allowed against players we've never heard about before. When the Panthers go up against Reggie Bush on Sunday, somehow deep in my gut I expect some shenanigans. It may only be one play, but I expect shenanigans.

I hope that we can finish this game strong with a dominant effort, but I'll bet you anything that we'll give up a big return for a touchdown or something weird like that. It may only delay the inevitable Panthers victory, but it will be annoying none-the-less.

Conclusion

I believe that the Panthers will win this game. I don't believe it'll be close. Our team has been playing lights out for the last couple of weeks. There is no way that the Panthers will allow themselves to be beaten by a bunch of backups. The Panthers will close out this season in a big way, 45-17. If the passing game works, the running game will go over 100 yards. If the passing game doesn't work, Jeff Davidson might screw up another game.

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Comments

I like your analysis and think (& hope) it will turn out accurate...

However, I expect a spirited game from the Saints. First off I find it shocking that Payton is willing to have Brees and other starters sit dormant from NFL game action for 21 days prior to the first playoff game. I would have thought to have seen all 1st teamers for at least a quarter….I think he’s playing overly cautious and maybe a little scared there. With that said I expect a spirited game from the Saints’ back-ups as Payton will challenge them with the task of providing momentum (yes.. the word Saints fans hate to hear right now) for the team as they head into the playoff run. The backups should see this as their opportunity to contribute to what could be a Super Bowl run, so I would expect a spirited game from them. Question is, will that be enough? Hard to figure this one.
GO PANTHERS!!!!

by paydirt16 on Jan 2, 2010 9:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I couldn't agree more

What kind of football shape will the Saints possibly be in entering the playoffs. 21 days without action. 35 days since their last win. Forget the 13 wins, for them this will be like game 1 of a whole new season.

Everyone knows you need momentum going into the playoffs. Why would Payton do this?

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Jan 3, 2010 12:10 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously!

The record of teams that do great for 12/13 games and then slide off, “resting their starters” is not good. I have really pulled for the Saints for this year, except against our Panthers, but the Saints smell like a team with “lost momentum”, “one and done” written all over them. Hope I’m wrong, but they are starting to smell like wussies.

by Barbados on Jan 3, 2010 2:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

southtunnel - I've tried explaining the "momentum" thing in more detailed terms...

but, for your benefit, I’ll try and make it as simple as possible. ONE time in NFL history, a top seeded team with a 3 game losing streak in the regular season DIDN’T win the Super Bowl. NEITHER did the ONE top seeded team having an undefeated regular season.

There isn’t enough statistical data in the relatively short history of the Super Bowl (much less the current playoff system), to make any absolute predictions of the future based upon what has occurred in the past. It’s not that difficult of a concept to get your arms around.

I point this out only because of the “everyone knows you need momentum going into the playoffs” mantra that you’ve preached at least 30 separate times in the past 48 hours on both this and the Saints web site.

With regards to “Why would Payton do this?”. In ’05, Drew Brees suffered what most thought to be a career ending shoulder injury in a meaningless final game of the season with the San Diego Chargers. Ironically, that injury is what brought him to the Saints in ’06 after San Diego gave up on him in favor of Phillip Rivers. Brees also suffered a lesser injury in the ’08 Pro Bowl that had no impact on the Saints due to ample healing time prior to the season starting. Call me crazy, but I suspect this might have had something to do with “why would Payton do this”.

by Drew-Dat on Jan 3, 2010 3:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't foget they lost both games @ HOME!

Die hard Carolina Panther Fan, repren' black and blue from southern Cali

by pantherfan95323 on Jan 3, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

im going to have a close eye on jarret

I haven’t given up on him yet. I think moore can get him the ball. I’m excited to see jarret and goodson show something tomarrow.

What have you done for me lately?

by Steve785 on Jan 2, 2010 10:59 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs

What would be interesting with Jarrett

IS how he handles a better thrown ball. The ability to separate and then target the ball already thrown will be key to his future in the NFL.

I am not so sold that Jarrett is that bad. However, I have been disappointed in his ability to progress.

by univonc on Jan 3, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Me and you on same page with jarrett and goodson

I wanna see them excel in todays game.

Die hard Carolina Panther Fan, repren' black and blue from southern Cali

by pantherfan95323 on Jan 3, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

momentum is overrated.......

The Saints have more need to be healthy. Brees went from playing only 1 1/2 quarters in the 3rd preseason game, and sat out two full weeks before we opened the season. All of our starters sat for two weeks, then went out and put up 93 points in the first two games.
Its not like they wont touch a ball for 3 weeks. Most of the offensive skill player have been together for 3 years or more, Also, whereas teams like Minn and Philly got their bye in weeks 8 and 9, the Saints had their bye in week 5.
       The defense really only played poorly the first two weeks after the NE game (Wash and Atlanta). Thats because we had half our starters out hurt, and there is a huge dropoff is talent from Greer and Porter at CB to Randall Gay and Malcom Jenkins. The absence of Greer and Porter limit what defensive coordinator Gregg Williams can do in gameplanning. Darren Sharper can’t roam the field when he needs to be there to cover for Gay and Jenkins deep.
       The last two weeks, in the two losses, the defense only gave up 23 points in the last 7 quarters + overtime. That should be enough to win with any team, especially with an offense like the Saints have. Dallas only scored 10 in the last 3 quarters, and without the punt return, Tampa only has 10 in regulation. The bigger problem has been offense. The offensive scheme is predicated on matchups. Without their starting FB Heath Evans (IR), the Saints run game suffers. Without the blocking ability of TE Jeremy Shockey, there is no help for the LT against the likes of Julius Peppers, as well as no checkdown receiver. Bush is another checkdown receiver for Brees, and he missed most of the Dallas game as well as a few others. Our best possession receiver, Lance Moore, has only played in 2-3 games all season. When the Saints were healthy at the beginning of the year, no one could match up with them. As the injuries mounted, all it did was level the playing field for the rest of the NFC. With everyone back for Jan 16-17, along with the rest, there’s not an NFC team that will be able to stay with them.
    If you don’t believe the injuries were a factor consider this: The Saints are second only to the Buffalo Bills in most players put on IR this season, and yet they are 13-2. How many other teams would be able to accomplish that? Just look at your own team for example. If Carolina had been healthy all season, I’m sure you would be battling for a playoff spot, not for an 8-8 season.
     Hope you enjoy this gift for what it is. There wont be any next season.

by RobertM320 on Jan 3, 2010 12:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

enjoy this gift?

I love the cockyness of u aints fans. YOU ALMOST LOST TO DELHOME IN YOUR HOUSE THIS SEASON! Nevermind the fact that he owned your lives for the past I dunno how many games. So enjoy your little season. I’m not buying into the aints bs y’all are the titans from last year. The only reason your starters aren’t playing is because they would get killed in our house with matt moore at qb. And that would be harder for your team to deal with than having your back up give it away. Who dat? The bum ass aints!

What have you done for me lately?

by Steve785 on Jan 3, 2010 1:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Congratulations Steve785

No one has ever been able to make me dislike a team because of one buffoon fan, but you came close. Now that I’ve held my breath for a few moments, I’ve gotten over it. I don’t hold the same animosity for the Panthers that you obviously have for the Saints.

Did you have a creole daddy that abandoned you and yo momma when you was just a little baby? What caused all this hate?

by Drew-Dat on Jan 3, 2010 3:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha saints have only beaten jake once in louisiana

by jojoisthemann on Jan 3, 2010 8:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I imagine it has something to do with how arrogant and obnoxious Saints fans have been all season.

Of course, this doesn’t excuse his behavior.

by SlayerGhaleon on Jan 3, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"All of our starters sat for two weeks, then went out and put up 93 points in the first two games. "

Big difference between first day of the regular season and first playoff game. First regular season game every team is on equal ground, whereas your first playoff game is gonna be against a battle hardened team carrying the momentum from a big wild card game win in the previous week. Payton has a real tough call here.

by paydirt16 on Jan 3, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i really just want the 49ers’ pick to slide back a bit

by ieatcrayons on Jan 3, 2010 12:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Quick question:

Why are people saying momentum is ‘overrated’ or a ‘myth’? Since the Superbowl came into existence only two teams have made the Superbowl taking a 2 loss streak into the playoffs:
- 1972 Washington Redskins
- 1967 Green Bay Packers

Other than those two teams no team has done it. Drew-Dat: Who are you referencing when you say:

ONE time in NFL history, a top seeded team with a 3 game losing streak in the regular season DIDN’T win the Super Bowl.

Because I can’t find a single team who made the playoffs on a 3 game losing streak, let alone won it

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James The Aussie on Jan 3, 2010 11:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can't say for sure which team it was or if ESPN was even correct to begin with, but....

On thursday, I heard a talking head on ESPN say “Only once has a top seeded team entered the playoffs having lost their last three games and they didn’t even make it to the Super Bowl”. That’s a direct quote. I can’t tell you his name but he’s a white former player with dark hair and a goatee (in the event you might know who I’m talking about).

I assumed he was referring to the Colts. But you know what they say about “assuming”. For what it’s worth, I just this moment heard on the NFL channel that no team with a 3 game losing streak had ever been the top seed, but there had been 6 previous teams with 3 game losing streaks in the playoffs but with a lesser seeding. Once again, it must be assumed this talking head knows what he’s talking about also.

Regarding why ‘some’ people don’t buy into momentum being as important as ‘most’ people do, I go back to there not being enough statistical data to make a conclusion.

I think I’m correct in saying there will only be 2 of 12 playoff teams this year that have a 2 or more game losing streak entering the playoffs (Saints and Colts). If all other factors are equal, the odds are 83% against either of those teams winning the Super Bowl for no other reason than the fact they are “out numbered” 6 to 1. Even if it were 4 teams entering the playoffs with a 2 game losing streak, there would still be 3 to 1 odds against one of them winning the Super Bowl, again assuming all other factors are equal.

the 12 teams making the playoffs are those having amassed the best record over the year regardless of the order the wins or losses occurred. It is generally conceded this group represents the “best” teams for that year. This coupled with the “on any given Sunday” theory makes a good argument for the “all other things being equal” factor of the equation. Taking emotion out of it, there is a much stronger argument to be made for law of averages accounting for the relative few 2 loss teams winning the Super Bowl than there is the “law of momentum”.

Obviously, if a team has all their starters healthy and plays their “A” team with an all out effort to win it’s last games of the season and still loses, there’s a good chance they will lose in the playoffs for no other reason than because they’re not playing well. But if a team either “rests” their starters and/or essentially does the same thing by being overly cautious regarding starters having injuries, the law of averages once again becomes the primary factor regarding if they will or won’t win the Super Bowl.

You could make an “accurate” statement that a team with a white quarterback will probably win the Super Bowl this year. While this is true, it’s ONLY true because Donavan McNabb is seriously out numbered. From an odds standpoint, it would still be true EVEN if the Eagles were thought by everyone to the heavy favorite to win going into the playoffs.

As an aside, I’ll also say if momentum is so real, why is it so fleeting? Yesterday, Philadelphia had it and Minnesota didn’t. Today, it’s the opposite. The truth is momentum moves around faster than a dot com company on the stock market. You got it one week and you don’t the next.

In 500 years, assuming anyone is still playing football, there “might” be enough statistical data to arrive at a conclusion regarding momentum, in and of itself, being the determining factor in who who wins and loses in the playoffs and ultimately gets to and wins the Super Bowl. Right now, there isn’t.

by Drew-Dat on Jan 3, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't really refute what you're saying

I’m not saying that it’s impossible for the Saints to make the Superbowl, I’m just saying that history has shown that momentum is important… that doesn’t make it vital.

Who knows why this is the case? Is there any reason a vastly superior team like the Colts should lose twice in the past during the playoffs after resting their players, but win the one season they had to fight to get in? I don’t know the answer.

Football players are a funny, often supersticious bunch… maybe it’s psycological? I’m not sure.

The aim of my question wasn’t to say ‘The Saints wont change history’ but more to ponder why momentum is ‘overrated’ when all historical data we have shows the opposite.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James The Aussie on Jan 3, 2010 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Momentum is ALL psychological

Positive mo breeds confidence, and that leads to more success.
Negative mo breeds doubt, and searching for some change of mechanics. which only screws the situation up further, and leads to more losses.

Neither is easy to reverse. There’s no switch to turn on or off. A real winner doesn’t get too high after a win, or too down after a loss — an even keel is the way to lessen the effects of emotional momentum extremes.

by bigdavis on Jan 3, 2010 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Momentum and Resting Players are two separate issues

Since you referenced the Colts: Yes, they didn’t win the Super Bowl when they rested players and did when they had to fight to get in. But the year they fought to get in and won, they also lost 3 of their last 5 games of the regular season…..hardly what I would call momenum.

And to make sure you understand where I’m coming from, the aim of my argument isn’t to say the Saints will win because of it.

"What Would Deckape Do"

by Drew-Dat on Jan 6, 2010 2:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs