Matt Moore QB Comparisons
by bigdavis on Jan 18, 2010 10:53 AM EST
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PrintI posted this on another Panthers' message board, and thought you guys would like to see some interesting numbers.
"Umm...Matt Moore will be one of the worst starting QB's, even if his QB rating is good and the Panthers win games. He doesn't have the TALENT that the best QB's do, the one's that WIN games for you. "
Hi guys -- I haven't posted here in quite awhile, but this comment fires me up.
HilbyPirates , you cherry pick 8 successful current QBs, and blithely state, without any evidence, that Matt Moore "doesn't have the TALENT that the best Qbs do, the one's (sic) that win games for you."
more after the jump...
...and these are the ones that you yourself chose to compare Moore to:
Tom Brady Peyton Manning , Ben Roethlisberger , Philip Rivers , Drew Brees , Kurt Warner , Eli Manning, or Donovan McNabb
Well buddy, open your eyes, cause this is gonna hurt more if you don't see it coming --
You limited your comparisons to "starting QBs", so let's see how each of those worthies stack up against Moore in THEIR first 8 starts in the NFL, compared to Moore:
Brady 5 wins in his first 8 starts -- 12 TDs -- 7 INTs
Peyton M. 1 " " " -- 11 " 16 "
Ben R. 8 " " " -- 10 " 4 "
Rivers 6 " " " -- 10 " 3 "
Brees 6 " " " -- 10 " 8 "
Warner 6 " " " -- 24 " 5 "
Eli M. 2 " " " -- 8 " 11 "
McNabb 3 " " " -- 10 " 8 "
Matt Moore 6 " " " -- 11 " 3 "
To make it easier for you to see just how much BETTER Moore has been than these super-stars (hardly WORSE!), I've bolded each figure that he has equalled or exceeded. You'll see that only Ben R. has won more times in his first 8 starts, only Brady and Warner have thrown more TDs in their first 8 starts, and NO-ONE has thrown fewer picks than Moore in their first eight starts!
I think this shows he might have more talent than any of them. Care to reassess him now?
Now I know there are all kinds of ways to compare players at the same position, but I was responding to the idea that Moore is not a "winner" -- the only valid measuring stick we have at this stage of his career is to show his numbers at an equivalent point, i.e. the first 8 starts he's had, vs the first 8 starts of the other guys. Preseason games and stats as a late game sub were ignored for all 9 Qbs -- just how they performed as starters.
It's gonna be hard to argue with those numbers, yet I know some will choose to do so. Help yourselves. As for me, I'm excited at the prospect that we may have found our QB of the future. He is way more lightly regarded, and skeptically thought of, than any of those 8 were at that stage of their careers, yet show me who's done better.
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I find it funny how some people aren’t just skeptical of change (as I was for a while) but dead set in refusing to believe it could work.
Your presented stats are great for anyone that doubts Moore. I’m not yet saying he’ll be the greatest QB the NFL has ever seen but he has shown nothing thus far to negate or disprove his ability to be a starting QB. It is only ones own pessimistic mind that creates these imaginary ‘theories’ that Moore doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter being the only evidence he has given us points to: yes, he can.
I applaud you for attempting to open the eyes of said poster and also good luck, you know in the realm of hard heads stats and proven performance don’t mean near as much as bias and flaky opinions.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
By the way..
If Moore had thrown 3 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his first 8 games, do you think people would be as hesitant to call him terrible as they have been of calling him a capable starter?
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
The classic 'What makes a QB' argument
Is it Wins or Stats?
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Moore has both on his side right now :)
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
matt moore reminds me soo much of a younger jake its not even funny
by carolinabrave89 on Jan 18, 2010 1:46 PM EST reply actions
Compared to Jake's first 8 starts --
Jake’s first 2 starts were with the Saints, 1999; then he didn’t get to start with the Panthers ’til 2003.
Totals for those 8 starts: 6 wins, same as Moore, but 7 TDs, 8 INTs (an omen of things to come?)
The problem with that argument as I see it bigdavis is this:
There’s a reason the Chargers selected Eli Manning #1, the Giants took Rivers #4 etc. they were terrible teams.
With the exception of Tom Brady all the QB you’ve mentioned were drafted early to terrible teams. Therefore the expectation for them to be good was very low. I think you’re putting too much stock in the role of a QB to a team’s success.
The Panthers were a good team in 2007 when Moore first started, they were good again in 2009. Matt Moore has been able to start for really good Panther teams having terrible seasons, whereas the other QBs (sans Brady) had to start for awful teams to begin with.
I’m very hopeful for Matt Moore… I really am… I’m just so wary of comparing him to (arguably) the top 8 QBs in the league.
And to answer Jaxon’s question above: Wins… it’s always wins. Do you think the Dolphins would rather Montana and the rings or Marino and the records?
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
That's true..
Though Moore took control of the very same team Delhomme had lead into the dirt multiple times during season and did well with them.
I don’t think the great QB debate stems so much from rather Moore is good or bad but the differing expectations people have assigned to such terms.
In the end, Moore led us through the end of a tough season with 4 wins and 1 loss. Rather that says he is a good QB or a decent QB that allows the rest of our offense to excel, I don’t know but either are good enough for me.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
I agree 100%
I’m very content saying that he’s better than Delhomme at leading the Carolina Panthers at this point in time.
I’m not quite ready to compare him to Philip Rivers, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning yet, that’s all.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
We weren't "good again" in 2009 until Moore started (in terms of W/L)
We were 4-7 before he started in ‘09, 7-7 in ’07. He didn’t step into a great team either year.
And your comparisons of Eli and Rivers don’t wash. They weren’t “terrible teams” any more than the Panthers were — both the Chargers and Giants finished 8-8 the years before they started those 2 guys.
And while there can be some debate as to how much a QB contributes to his team’s Wins and Losses (that’s the chicken and the egg — it can’t be decided), I see no argument with the undeniable FACT that he’s only thrown 3 (THREE) INTs in his first 8 starts — as good or markedly better than all of those 8 other guys. That’s all on the QB’s judgment, accuracy, and decision-making.
And before anybody says, “Yeah but what about his WRs? What about his O-line? What about blah,blah, blah?” — sure there are many variables that contribute to any one play, or winning any one game. But a QB’s first 8 starts in the league are as good a measuring stick as any, at least to see how he stacks up at the START of his career. That’s all I’m doing, in answering a guy who said he was a loser. Team strengths, injuries to himself and to his O-line and WRs — they’ll all play into how a guy’s long-term career play out.
I’m only comparing him (at this time) to those 8 top QBs after their first 8 starts — I’m not saying he’ll turn out better than any or all of them. But….who can say with authority that, after what he’s shown so far, that he couldn’t??
I wholly disagree
The Chargers were indeed a ‘terrible team’ before they drafted Philip Rivers: 1-15 in 2000, 5-11 in 2001, 8-8 in 2002, 8-8 in 2003… thats a combined 22-42 in the prior four seasons.
The Giants are in the same boat before Eli: 12-4 in 2000, 7-9 in 2001, 10-6 in 2002, 4-12 in 2003… that’s a combined 33-31
Now lets look at the Panthers: 11-5 in 2003, 7-9 in 2004, 11-5 in 2005, 8-8 in 2006… that’s a combined 37-27 before Moore’s first stint in 2007.
Let’s look at Moore’s second: 11-5 in 2005, 8-8 in 2006, 7-9 in 2007, 12-4 in 2008… that’s a combined 38-26 before Moore’s second stint in 2009.
There’s no comparing the Giants prior to Eli, the Chargers prior to Rivers and the Panthers prior to Moore. The Panthers were markedly better in pure wins and losses. Now, you could make an argument that the Chargers were better because of Drew Brees… but using by using that we are subscribing to your methodology that the Chargers were a terrible team who were good solely because of Brees… based on the percieved importance of the QB position.
No doubt the poster who said:
"Umm…Matt Moore will be one of the worst starting QB’s, even if his QB rating is good and the Panthers win games. He doesn’t have the TALENT that the best QB’s do, the one’s that WIN games for you. "
Is utterly and completely wrong however.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Sorry, but
what does it matter what a teams record was 4 YEARS before they drafted a guy?
The Giants were 4-12 the year before Eli = pretty darn bad, but before he made his first start the next season, they were 5-4 and finished 6-10 with him.
Rivers you can’t argue, 8-8 is not a “terrible” team by any stretch of the imagination. This was a team on the upswing.
The Steelers were 6-10 prior to Big Ben but that was also their only non-winning season of the decade so it’s also very hard to call that team “terrible.”
It’s important because it shows the true nature of a team and is a better indicator of a team’s true skill rather than a season which was an anomaly.
Looking at only the preceeding season is shortsighted.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
No
that is a better indicator of what that team was 4 years ago. Panther fans are spoiled but most NFL teams don’t have this much stability, they could be completely different teams in 4 years, sometimes twice over. I could see the 2 previous seasons revealing something, but 4 is too much.
The real point is, who cares if Moore’s numbers are just skewed from being placed on a good team. Who wouldn’t take a 2.6-1 TD-INT ratio and 75% win percentage every year? That would put moore at about 26 TDs 10ints and 12-4 record next year and I think that would tell us if we have our QB of the future or not. And theoretically he should only improve with more playing time.
Good teams have relative stability, poor teams fluctuate constantly.
Which teams in the current NFL are completely different now from 4 years ago? Barring some major coaching changes or retirements most teams are the same. The achievers achieve, the losers are still losing… 4 years is a drop in the buckert. 6 years, 8 years… I’d agree with you, but 4 years is very recent.
who cares if Moore’s numbers are just skewed from being placed on a good team.
Nobody. Unless those numbers are the basis of an argument as bigdavis laid out. I’m not arguing that Moore isn’t the future of the Panthers, I never have said anything to the contrary.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
The 2nd part
was to the larger issue, not you specifically.
The whole point of talking about how good or bad teams were is because someone mentioned that Moore’s numbers only look good because he was on a good team while the other QB’s were tossed into dung heaps.
My point is that, even today, pretty much all of those QB’s would love Moore’s overall numbers.
So far
2005 standings
Seahawks 13-3
Cardinals 5-11
49ers 4-12
could even say Rams are a lot worse than 6-10 they were
Bucs at 11-5
Saints 3-13
Packers 4-12
Bears 11-5
Vikes at 9-7 are somewhat close record wise, but most of the players and coaches have changed.
Redskins 10-6
Eagles only went 6-10 but I can’t argue they were much different
Chargers 9-7
Chiefs 10-6
Broncoes 13-3
Texans 2-14
Titans 4-12
Jags 12-4
Ravens 6-10
Jets 4-12
Patriots 10-6
Dolphins 9-7
Ok, so that is the MAJORITY of the league that is drastically different in personnel/coaching/performance from 4 years ago.
And how can you say barring coaching changes and retirements? lol That’s like… well barring 2 other teams in our division the Panthers were the best team!
Again, you're looking at things in too static a nature.
Now you’re just comparing 2005 with 2009.
The NFL moves in ebbs and flows. With the exception of the NFC South no division fluctuates that much, they tend to go in more of a cyclical nature.
It is my personal belief that there are four tiers of NFL teams, and these tiers have remained in place for the prior four seasons
Top Echelon (perenial conference contenders)
- Pittsburgh
- New England
- Indianapolis
Upper Echelon (perennial playoff game winners)
- NY Giants
- Philadelphia
- San Diego
- Baltimore
Mid Echelon (occasional playoff game winners)
- Carolina
- Atlanta
- Tennessee
- Seattle
- Arizona
Lower Echelon (perenially miss playoffs)
- Cleveland
- Oakland
- Kansas City
- Buffalo
Obviously there are more teams to fit in… but in thinking of the last four seasons every team can be fit into one of these categories over that span.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Jan 18, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
Well, you are just wrong
How can you not see this? Comparing 2005 to 2009 is unfair you say? That is my ENTIRE point. That it’s too broad a spectrum to look at.
I agree the NFL “ebbs and flows” but most of these are 1-3 year runs and not dynastys anymore.
You say Pitt and the Pats are perennial conference contenders, well, never this season. Perhaps they will bounce back next year, but this year they were good teams but had lots of question marks.
Your “Upper Echelon”:
Well, the Giants didn’t even make the playoffs this year so I’m not sure how they would’ve won a game.
The Eagles 4 years ago were 6-10 so once again you are blatantly wrong.
Baltimore has consistently been solid but not a contender. It wasn’t until the last 2 years (once again, reinforcing my point) that they’ve won games in the playoffs.
The Chargers have been consistently good, but they have yet to live up to expectations in the playoffs so you can’t really call them playoff winners.
Mid Echelon:
umm Seattle sucks so not sure of what you’re saying here.
Arizona sucked 4 years ago (only in the last 2 seasons have they won in the playoffs) so again, not sure what you’re trying to say.
Car, Atl, Tenn are consistently average-very good so I’m fine with this assessment.
Lower: Yes, there will always be teams that suck for 4 years in a row, so you are spot on here.
I still think your scope is too narrow
My point was you took 2005 and then 2009 in total isolation, choosing to ignore 2006, 2007 and 2008. That doesn’t give you a picture of a francise as a whole. Was 2007 indicative of the Panthers? Now you’re rebutting my entire argument based on 2009 alone.
Over the last 4 years would you disagree that the Steelers and Patriots are perennial contenders? Regardless of an aberration of one season they are still typically contending for the AFC Championship.
You say “Seattle sucks, so I don’t know what you’re saying here”
I’m saying “Seattle are occasional playoff game winners”
2006: Won a wild card game
2007: Won a wild card game
2008: Failed to make playoffs
2009: Failed to make playoffs
So, how do Seattle ‘suck’? They have had far more success than the Carolina Panthers in the last 4 years.
You level the same charge towards Arizona…
2006: Failed to make playoffs
2007: Failed to make playoffs
2008: Lost in Superbowl
2009: Won wild card game
I’m saying that if you take a second to look outside the box and gain a full understanding of a franchises history you see that in this instance both Arizona and Seattle over the last 4 seasons “occasionally win playoff games” typified here by having 2 playoff wins in 4 seasons.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
So many factors...
I admit I skimmed the thread, but the thing that stuck out was the first post… You can look at the 2001-2003 Panthers – what was their combined W-L record (no, I didn’t look it up)? Something like 18-30, thanks to the 2001 season before came the regime change? And yet they were in the SB in 2003.
Point is that records don’t show the complete picture – the reality is so much more complex. Now, if you can show a team consistently at the bottom, say Detroit (or Cleveland of late, rest their souls!), then I wouldn’t argue it.
There are so many more factors though that impact a QBs success – many QBs have had the talent but have been on the WRONG team or under the wrong coaching or external circumstances – see “Marino, Dan”, “Manning, Archie” or “Smith, Alex”. And God help you if you’re on Chuckie’s team because the day’s crop gets taken out with the trash each night!
What I challenge ANYONE to dispute however is that Matt Moore is the first legitimate potential starting-quality QB the Panthers have seen since Delhomme, a 6-year span! I’m not counting L’efors or any other 2nd or 3rd-stringer because they never got to start and build their resumes. And before Delhomme, you would have to go back to Steve Beurline , however long ago that was. Forget Collins, he was a bust due to his off-field issues and never wanting to be there to begin with.
So that’s what, 3 true starter QBs in 15 seasons, and only two at the beginning or prime of their careers? Let’s all just cross our fingers and toes and pray that Moore doesn’t forget how to play ball during the off-season!
In what way?
Care to elaborate?
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Jan 20, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
Just to chime in..
I have been readying these replies and completely understand what you’re saying. I’m not sure why everyone thinks you’re so off point with this.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Sorry about that...
I actually didn’t mean to post that, and would have elaborated if it had been intentional.
The part i think you’re wrong about is this:
Let’s look at Moore’s second: 11-5 in 2005, 8-8 in 2006, 7-9 in 2007, 12-4 in 2008… that’s a combined 38-26 before Moore’s second stint in 2009.
There’s no comparing the Giants prior to Eli, the Chargers prior to Rivers and the Panthers prior to Moore. The Panthers were markedly better in pure wins and losses. Now, you could make an argument that the Chargers were better because of Drew Brees… but using by using that we are subscribing to your methodology that the Chargers were a terrible team who were good solely because of Brees… based on the percieved importance of the QB position.
The Giants were no more ‘terrible’ prior to Eli than they were this year. And they were no more ‘terrible’ than the Panthers were in 2009 with Jake Delhomme as the QB.
What are the Saint’s wins/losses over the last four years? Are they terrible? I believe looking at a teams’ record over a four year period like that does NOT paint an accurate picture of the different and particular situations that each of these QBs were stepping into in their first 8 games.
I really don't get you
It was never a question of who were the best franchises, in that case, yes, your 4 year run and more like 10 would have validity, but the point in question is how good was the team, RIGHT THEN, when that QB stepped into the lineup. Not 3 or 4 years previous.
Seattle sucks. Present tense. They didn’t always suck, so I will admit they have had some success in the past decade. Currently, they suck.
Meanwhile, Arizona sucked 4 years ago. Past tense. Now, they are overrated but much improved.
How do we know this is an aberration for pitt and NE? Perhaps Brady just doesn’t have what he used to, maybe Welker will never fully recover and Moss is past his prime? Looking at the Pats record 3 years ago isn’t going to answer any of those questions.
I agree both teams will PROBABLY bounce back, just as I believe Carolina will be a contender next season as well, but the best way to judge that is to look at the immediate past, not some distant past.
Also, most of the teams I was talking about that have changed, have done so not only by record, but by head coach, players, sometimes it will be even ownership or hometown.
So once again to review, this was NEVER about FRANCHISE HISTORY, it was how good a team was when the QB in op joined that team. You are making a completely different argument and it just has no use for what this entire thread is about.
I think we’re both guilty of taking this thread in another direction.
However, I stand by the assertation that with the exception of Tom Brady all the QBs in bigdavis’ original post started for teams who were far worse than the 2007 or 2009 Panthers, which for the sake of a pure W/L argument can skew the stats in Moore’s favor.
There’s no denying the excellent TD/INT ratio, however, which I have also stated.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
I think everyone has taken this post in some sort of their own direction. However, in the end, it just shows how passionate we our about our Panthers :). Different paths take us there but, on game day, we’re all watching the same team.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
who cares if Moore’s numbers are just skewed from being placed on a good team. Nobody. Unless those numbers are the basis of an argument as bigdavis laid out.
Not sure what you’re saying here, James.
Are you saying my “argument” is flawed? If so, how?
I don’t see how his numbers are “skewed” — if you’re saying the Panthers won those games with no contribution from Moore, where were they the first part of the season?
Matt Moore’s numbers his first 8 starts are better than those recorded by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Drew Brees, the guys that most would consider the top 3 QBs playing today. Were they with worse teams than the current Panthers the years they started? Uh uh.
Give the guy the credit he’s due.
I'm not saying your argument is flawed, per se
However, I do find elements of it flawed.
Essentially you’re showing how good Moore is by showing his superiority over his first 8 starts compared with the league’s best.
In the table you provide Matt Moore is far and away superior to all of them. It’s not about taking credit away from Matt Moore, it’s about giving credit to the rest of the Carolina Panthers where credit was due.
It’s easy to say ‘Look where the Panthers were at the beginning of 2009, then look at the end’… it’s easy because Jake Delhomme sucked in 2009 there’s no other way to put it. Moore was amazing in the last four games, and I wholly support him to start in 2010.
I’m just asking that before we look at Moore’s numbers in isolation compared to other QBs that we need to analyze the whole team behind each quarterback at the time they started. I think when you do this you see that Matt Moore had more tools to give raw wins and losses than those other QBs did.
Where this differs, however, is Moore’s TD/INT ratio. This alone is extremely noteworthy and I think more of an indicator of his personal success than W/L alone.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Jan 18, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
That's what I was trying to point out --
—that Matt Moore has shown, without argument, that his first 8 starts rank him as good as or better than every other QB who’s current and highly regarded.
The wins thing you can debate, by bringing in the contributions of others on his team, vs the relative strengths/weaknesses of the other QBs when they began as starters. And you’ve done that.
But the TD/INT thing! That sets him apart, and marks him for greatness, IMO.
Rec this post, or whatever you do to keep in it play, and revisit the idea after our first 3 games or so next year. As I said months ago, it’s his quick release and fast decisions that will make him successful.
One could also argue
that although we were a 12-4 team in ’08, being a 4-7 team when he stepped in, things had changed. Be it morale or whatever, we were still worse.
Add in all the losses on D by the end of the year, and then D Will, both our starting Tackles, and smith for the final game… that team was NOT the same team that went 12-4 last season. Our talent level was pretty drained at that point and yet we still, not just beat, but punished the top 2 teams in our conference and another top 8 team.
Good teams have relative stability, poor teams fluctuate constantly.
Constantly fluctuating? HMmm? What NFL franchise has NEVER had 2 winning seasons back-to-back?
What are you trying to say?
Not in record, but in personnel. I should have clarified better.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Jan 20, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
What team has never lost more than nine games under Fox?
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 21, 2010 7:04 AM EST up reply actions
The Giants were 4-12 the year before Eli = pretty darn bad, but before he made his first start the next season, they were 5-4 and finished 6-10 with him.
Exactly!
Moore is just plain BETTER than Eli Manning.
Eli came on as the starter for the Giants, midseason in ‘04, when they had already compiled a winning record of 5-4 — if he’d been any good, he’d not have lost 6 out of the next 7 games for them, nor thrown 9 INTs to only 6 TDs.
The Giants were 4-12 the year before Eli = pretty darn bad, but before he made his first start the next season, they were 5-4 and finished 6-10 with him.
http://www.nfl.com/players/elimanning/gamelogs?id=MAN473170&season=2004
In 6 seasons, he’s only had 1 year with a QB rating of over 87, he’s lost 17 fumbles in thr last 3 years, and he’s thrown 44 INTs in those last 3. He and the Giants are a vastly overrated team, who got very, very lucky to win it all one time.
Moore is just plain BETTER than Eli Manning.
If Moore wins us a Superbowl I’ll agree with you 100%, until then, no dice in my book.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Jan 18, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Irrelevant
Was Dan Marino a better QB than Eli Manning? He never won a Super Bowl.
Winning the big one’s a team effort, the supreme team effort. Let’s say, for example, that the Jets manage to win the Super Bowl this year — does that make Mark Sanchez a premier QB, in your book? Was Doug Williams a better QB than Donovan McNabb? Was Trent Dilfer a better QB in 2000 than Drew Brees has ever been thus far in his career?
Eli Manning was just as lucky to catch lightning in a bottle in his one year of glory (which was his team’s doing, not his), as Dilfer was with the Ravens. Both before and after that one Super Bowl year, in 2007, he has been middle of the road. Even in ‘07, his season’s QB rating was only 74, with a TD/INT ratio of 23/20. He got hot in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, and was lucky to get by the 3rd round against Green Bay. I reiterate — throwing 44 picks in the last 3 years, and coughing up 17 fumbles — that’s not worthy of praise, or high esteem.
Manning’s rating this season was 93.1 over 16 games
Moore’s was 98.5 over 8 games
Eli had a higher completion percentage and a higher YPC.
I don’t think it’s so cut and dry you can say Moore is ‘just plain better’. Though if Moore keeps up his 2009 form then I think the argument can be made.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Jan 19, 2010 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
The only solution to this argument is to wait and see
Plenty of QB’s have had short term success like Moore, and plenty have fizzled out the next season. Lets see what Moore can do when teams have a lot more film and time to prepare, then we can anoint him savior. Right now, any QB that wins a Super Bowl is automatically one of the best. You can’t win a Super Bowl without a competent QB, there are other factors, but that one is key.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 19, 2010 1:59 AM EST up reply actions
Let me clarify one last time
I wasn’t anointing Moore a “savior.”
I was pointing out that — contrary to the ignorant post (on another board; I doubt anyone here would’ve said it) that said he wasn’t a winner — he has been a winner, and in fact (surprisingly even to me) his performance over the first 8 starts of his career actually EXCEEDED all of the QBs the guy mentioned as superior.
Then we got off on a tangent about team records, and how that can affect any QBs results. Sure it can, in W/Ls, but not in TD/INT, which is where he really excels!
Maybe there’s some validity to the opposing teams’ film study on him that may reduce his effectiveness next year, as it did to Matt Ryan. So we wait and we see. But if they’re going to improve their defenses against hi, they’d better get pressure on him fast, because, as I’ve said, he gets rid of the ball quickly, and with generally good decisions — if he can cure his early game tendency to throw high, with the run game we’ve got, that has to be respected, he can be a force.
But my primary point still holds: when you say “Plenty of QB’s have had short term success like Moore, and plenty have fizzled out the next season”, it’s also true that many QBs have started out average or below (see Peyton for the most glaring example!) and then become great. Other teams studied film on him, too, but look where it got them. Moore with his success in his first 8 has a leg up on career success, IMO.
I hope Moore succeeds just like you
But from what I’m seeing you’ve had too much Koolaid. ;) I’ll throw out a name for you, Derek Anderson. 29 TD’s in 07, you know how that has turned out for him. Anderson did better than Moore in his first eight, so my point is we can’t judge now, we can only speculate. Moore hasn’t had any lows yet, I want to see him bounce back from those before I anoint him the starter.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 20, 2010 2:03 AM EST up reply actions
"Anderson did better than Moore in his first eight"
Wait a minute now – somebody else needs some ice cream, like I did yesterday.
Derek Anderson was NOWHERE near as good as Moore over their first 8 starts.
Anderson started the last 3 games for the Browns in ’06. losing all 3, and with 3 TDs and 7 INTs — then the next year, he was the entrenched starter, and in the first 5 games of ’07 (the rest of first 8 starts), he only won 2, and with 11 TDs and 8 INTs.
So his first 8 starts resulted in a W/L of 2-6, and a TD/INT ratio of 14/15. And 5 of his TDs came in one game, a 51-45 shootout vs the lowly Bengals, on 9/16/07. I think the highlight reel of that game got him some recognition, but still…
And incidentally, in his first 8 starts, he never failed to throw at least 1 INT. Not Moore-like at all.
http://www.nfl.com/players/derekanderson/gamelogs?id=AND180512&season=2006
http://www.nfl.com/players/derekanderson/gamelogs?id=AND180512&season=2007
They both played for Oregon State, though —maybe that’s the similarity you saw.
How much of that could you attribute to playing on the Browns?
My point is he came in, threw close to 30 scores, made the Pro Bowl, and if the Colts hadn’t rested their starters he would have made the playoffs. He had short term success, but no long term success. This is why I want to wait before anointing Moore the savior, or even starter. If he beats out Delhomme in camp, and then just doesn’t throw games away for us, I’ll be on the bandwagon.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 21, 2010 7:08 AM EST up reply actions
Throwing at least 1 INT in each of his first 8 starts -- that's on HIM, not playing for the Browns
If we go back to saying his 2-6 W/L record can’t be compared to Moore’s 6-2 — because he played on a “worse” team", that’s one thing. But the argument on here, about that, has always come back to the TD/INT ratio being a stronger determinant of performance, regardless of the team one plays for.
I still say that Anderson’s TD total was overrated (leading to his Pro Bowl selection), with scant attention paid to his penchant for INTs. 15 picks in a QBs first 8 starts, compared to Moore’s 3! C’mon. That’s not attributable to playing for the Browns — that’s attributable to being a scatterarm. He never started off as well as Moore has — he’s not comparable.
That doesn’t mean Moore’s a “savior” — only that Derek Anderson isn’t in his class. Oh, and BTW, Anderson’s career QB rating is 69.7, and never over 82.5 in his best year. I’d put him more on a par with Delhomme, and not even that good.
But in his ninth start
He threw 3 TD’s, 0 picks. You can’t overrate a TD total, in that case Moore’s is overrated because two of them were little 1 yard dunks, the others Smith bailed him out. No question Moore has had a phenomenal start, but Anderson had a phenomenal first season starting. The vote is two-thirds coaches and players as well, so they obviously thought he had talent. Now Anderson had deficiencies that teams exposed, but the same thing will happen to Moore. The question I have is whether or not he will survive, and become stronger.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 22, 2010 2:31 AM EST up reply actions
"You can’t overrate a TD total"
…but you can UNDERRATE it?
In the words of the immortal John Fox, “It is what it is.”
There seems to be a protagonist/antagonist feel to this discussion. I quoted facts and figures, about recorded TDs and INTs — now you’re redefining TDs as only counting as valid if they’re over a certain length that you prefer (have you looked up how many of Anderson’s were of the “dunk” variety?)
And even if all of Anderson’s were of a long enough distance to satisfy you of their importance, did they score more than 6 points for his team, because of it? No, didn’t think so.
And how’s that undermine the even MORE IMPORTANT determinant of a QBs effectiveness, his INTs?? I maintain that since Anderson threw no fewer than ONE INT in EACH of his first 8 starts — thereby turning the ball over to his team’s opponents, he was doing great harm to the W/L record of his team, to the motivational psychology of his teammates (and fans, as we here in Pantherland can certainly empathize with!), and to his team’s point-scoring ability. Anderson did that FIFTEEN TIMES in his first 8 starts; Moore only THREE TIMES. Is Moore 5X as good a QB? I wouldn’t go so far as to say that, though from that figure, some might. (Or maybe more correctly, Anderson was 5X worse.)
And before I end this little diatribe, let me ask you to re-read what you just said: “You can’t overrate a TD total, in that case Moore’s is overrated”
What the heck does that mean, anyway?? I know it’s 5:30AM as I’m reading it, but I can’t for the life of me figure it out. ;-)
You said Anderson's TD total was overrated
That was my reply. It helped that I was typing at a lucid hour of 4 in the afternoon. ; )
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 23, 2010 4:19 AM EST up reply actions
After rereading my post below (Moore vs Ice)...
I think there’s better comparison to be made between Anderson and Ryan. Overhyped one-year wunderkins?
You
made the statement earlier that it was teams watching film on Ryan, but I’d argue it was teams watching film on a head coach (mike smith) they had never seen before and didn’t know what sort of offensive tendencies he had. Also, Turner was hurt more this season and they had a tougher schedule.
I think it was just Matt Ryan regressing towards his actual skill level, which is that of an average or slightly below QB and not a stud.
Really?
I still think he is going to be a good one…just needs time to develop, reduce the mistakes. I think losing Harry Douglas hurt their receiving corps even with the addition of Gonzo. They have Roddy White and that is it.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
An interesting point about tendencies
I’ve wondered if Jake’s problems were because other teams had figured out his (and Fox’s) tendencies. I don’t mean the tendency to throw to SS no matter what, or run a draw on 3rd and long, but what they would do in a given situation, faced with a given defensive look. Even if you’re attacking the defense’s weakness, it won’t work if they know it’s coming. Remember Moose’s comment that the other team seemed to know what they were going to do? Some of Moore’s success might be due to changing things up to adapt to his skill set.
(This might also might contribute to the Panther’s up-and down record – we win, next season other teams have figured out our tendencies so we don’t win as often, so the next season Fox adapts to this and we win, and so on.
No, no, no.
The season that a team records the year before a certain player joins is way more relevant to his effect than what they did 3-4 years previous.
In 3-4 years, a whole roster can be turned over, and not resemble a current personnel list at all.
BigD
It’s pretty clear that you are correct here. Some find it much more difficult to eat their words on how bad (or good) Moore was from earlier in the season. I think any argument against Matt Moore form Panthers fans is rooted in their embarrassment from being so wrong about Moore earlier in the 2009 season.
Might I ask..
Why does someone have to be specifically wrong and one specifically right? In the end, all of these are opinions of fans. I understand both sides of the argument though I couldn’t say someone is “absolutely wrong”. Both sides have their opinion and sharing them is what enable us to grow as a fan base.
BigDavis is saying that statistically Moore is better than most or all of the guys mentioned over his first 8 starts, as far as the variables in football, well, it is what it is. Our team possibly putting Moore in a better position to succeed than other teams did their QB’s isn’t something I’ll hold against Moore. I believe you then need look at the coaching staff and see why they weren’t in a position to succeed if third-stringer Moore did it with a team full of back-ups.
However, James is saying that some teams often fluctuate while very few remain top tier teams. I believe that evolved from the “QB was in better position to win with such and such team” argument. While I stated my opinion on that above, I understand what James is saying as well. As far as a teams stability he is absolutely right. Good teams are more often stable (New England, Indianapolis, etc) while bad teams are not. I’d say there are more good than bad. His list above seemed about right with a few personal exceptions. Regardless, that doesn’t make him wrong.
Unless you’re the sole supremacy that many people spend their lives searching for, I don’t see exactly how you declare who is correct and who incorrect. This is a debate with no clear cut “winner” but two (or in this case, a lot more) “winners” who each walk away with an expanded frame of mind after gaining another’s point of view.
This has nothing to do with eating words. Benching Delhomme before the Arizona game would have been down right disrespectful in not giving him the chance to avenge what many consider the down turn in his career. Following that was questionable, though as I said in a different post, I wouldn’t change a thing. Moore debuting against Tampa was a perfect way to shake the rust and build confidence. Had he been crushed in his first game, we may have never seen what he could do. I feel like things happened in the best way possible that gives Moore the fairest shot at starting next year.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Nicely put. Well balanced, as always.
That’s why this thread has evoked so many comments — because it’s a situation that has no final resolution yet, many variables to account for in the future, and lots of well-grounded opinions. And we probably have all learned something about Moore, and how we perceive him, from others’ ideas.
Then what's the point right?
Unless you’re the sole supremacy that many people spend their lives searching for, I don’t see exactly how you declare who is correct and who incorrect.
While we’re at it let’s lobby the NFL to not keep score since its all just for fun. And since there is no objective truth, man, only subjective truths, we’re all correct…in a way. It’s groovy, man. Can ya dig it?
Sorry, but to try to discredit and remain skeptical of Matt Moore’s stellar play in his first 8 starts when compared to other top NFL QB’s because (of the false claim that) the Panthers organization was better than the other QB’s on BigD’s list, is wrong. At least that’s my opinion. If you think that’s absolutely wrong, absolutely right, or neither please feel free to continue and keep stating your opinions.
Where is the rule that states that i can not state my opinions on whether other posters are correct or not? Or has this just been a lesson in “Polite Internet Forum Etiquette of D-Ranged1-01”?
Perhaps you put too much effort into simple statements.
Last time I checked, I don’t play for the NFL, nor do you. So what does the NFL keeping score have to do with any of this? Nothing. Does the NFL pay your bills? If not, I still fail to see how it relates to our conversation. Are you saying our debates here on CSR are just as important as games played in the NFL? You take it that seriously?
Regardless… You’re completely entitled to your opinion however “It’s pretty clear that you are correct here.” is not presented as an opinion but a fact. If James wants to remain skeptical because Moore truly hasn’t proven himself for a whole season, why is he wrong for that?
I never discredited your opinion but all I seen was your stating of a fact (or at least was presented as such) that everyone else was wrong and then a little bashing for disagreeing, saying others were “embarrassed”.
Anyways, no need for this to get out of hand, I wasn’t trying to provoke you but simply asking why it had to be such a clear cut yes or no, “i’m right, you’re wrong” subject (which I don’t believe was answered) instead of everyone simply sharing their thoughts on the matter.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Act II: In which dudeman responds to D ranged's provocation
You:
If James wants to remain skeptical because Moore truly hasn’t proven himself for a whole season, why is he wrong for that?
me:
to try to discredit and remain skeptical of Matt Moore’s stellar play in his first 8 starts when compared to other top NFL QB’s because (of the false claim that) the Panthers organization was better than the other QB’s on BigD’s list, is wrong
Can you understand the difference between these to statements? I can, but then again i am the ‘sole supremacy that many people spend their lives searching for’, so i might have an edge at reading comprehension.
Remaining skeptical of Moore is James’ own prerogative. The attempt to discredit Moore’s numbers in his first 8 games compared to the other QBs’ on that list based on the overall state of those QBs’ teams was the portion of James’ comments that was (and still is) wrong.
you again:
You’re completely entitled to your opinion however "It’s pretty clear that you are correct here." is not presented as an opinion but a fact.
Below is the statement by Big Davis that I commented was pretty clearly correct. (fact, opinion, i don’t care)
The season that a team records the year before a certain player joins is way more relevant to his effect than what they did 3-4 years previous.
In 3-4 years, a whole roster can be turned over, and not resemble a current personnel list at all.
Why don’t you tell me how my comment agreeing that this statement is correct is a problem? Do you think this statement is incorrect. Do you think my comment has no value? Is that why you have put so much effort in harassing me for stating my opinion in a matter of fact manner?
Anyways, no need for this to get out of hand, I wasn’t trying to provoke you but simply asking why it had to be such a clear cut yes or no, "i’m right, you’re wrong" subject (which I don’t believe was answered) instead of everyone simply sharing their thoughts on the matter.
I don’t see how my comment was out of line with anything BigD was saying. You say everyone but me was just “sharing their thoughts” and i’m the only one making it right vs wrong, but the comment i agreed with was titled “No, no, no.” Big D and James were having a debate and i chimed in that i thought Big D was correct. How is that a problem???
For someone not trying to provoke some one you have done a good job of provocation…IN MY OPINION.
Well sir
I do apologize if you took my text in some sort of harmful manner. To skip right over the right and wrong debate (I feel it has reached a point not worth further continuing, wouldn’t you agree?), I did not mean your comment was “out of line” but that I would like to keep our conversation from going south (as sometimes happens to everyone). More of a preventive measure, I should say. It also was not any attempt to harass, only my thoughts on the matter, in which you returned your thoughts of mine and I once again presented my thoughts, a debate of opinions. I don’t believe James is wrong for stating that variables can come into play when judging a QB, however to each his own. I also agreed with BigDavis’ post that Moore did a great job. I don’t believe he found my initial response as harassing as you did. I must admit I had not known your comment on BigDavis being correct was directed directly towards his own comment, I thought you were referring to the entire debate in your reply. In the end, I do hope you’re not getting yourself worked up over a bunch of text on a screen because we have differing opinions. My ‘harassing’ was simply to better understand your position on the matter. I did enjoy the comprehension insult, though, funny stuff.
Please do have a nice evening sir.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
And as D-ranged exits stage left, I enter stage right
Specifically to address your belief that Moore will not “bust”. Derek Anderson had a heck of a start, where is he now? You can crown Moore, but I am going to wait and see if he can do it for a full season. He’s done it off and on for the past few years, lets see if he’s off or on now.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 21, 2010 7:13 AM EST up reply actions
We could make a CSR musical with all of this :D
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 22, 2010 2:32 AM EST up reply actions
Well James I have to disagree with you about the so called terrible teams drafting a QB. The Giants had a great core of players when they drafted Eli/Rivers, the Chargers had a team that may not played that well but they too had a great team put together by good ol’ Marty Schottenheimer. The Steelers won a Super Bowl 2 years later. Anyhow, I have always stood by Jake or whoever our starting QB is. Matt Moore has shown some great promise and I hope that he continues to improve. He does have the skill set and I dont think that anyone can disagree with that. Oh yeah, I do love your blog…its good stuff.
by Skywalker2604 on Jan 22, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Welcome to CSR Skywalker..
The force is strong with this one.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
“Umm…Matt Moore will be one of the worst starting QB’s, even if his QB rating is good and the Panthers win games. He doesn’t have the TALENT that the best QB’s do, the one’s that WIN games for you. "
That just doesn’t even make any sense. Even if Matt Moore and the Panthers win games he won’t be a qb that WINS games? Uhh… Is there more than one kind of winning? If he has a good QB rating and helps the panthers to win games I really don’t know what else would determine ‘TALENT’. The only ‘Talent’ I wanted to see from him, and which he’s delivered, is the kind that gets the ball to OUR player’s hands.
You really shouldn’t argue with children bigdavis, you’ll never win.
I think he meant
“ability to win games on his own” ala down 6, 1:52 left on the clock, 1 timeout, can he drive us 68 yards for the touchdown?
And I think by “Talent,” he probably meant Matt Moore can’t throw a football through the goalposts from the 50 yard line on one knee like Kyle Boller, now THAt is talent. He also isn’t 270lbs and can throw a ball 75 yards like JaMarcus Russell, once again, impressive TALENT.
I would say though that accuracy, ability to read a defense, and throw on the move are all talents and Moore seems to possess them.
I don't have any idea of his age, nor was I arguing with him
I was just reading him the Rules and Regulations, as they pertained to Matt Moore, his talents and his wins.
Thanks for some sanity on Moore…We have only 1 correct path and thats to Allow him to lose the starting job…not in the preseason,but as our new starting QB,we all agree that must take place first,because we know the coaches did not see this potential until forced to make a change…I expect and am excited that we MAY have found our QB of the future!Panthers Rule!
those other guys
first of all, i have to say that i think eli manning isn’t that good. i never really liked him. and it’s funny that the giants were 5-4 with kurt warner, and then benched him for eli manning and only got one more win. the chargers got rivers when they still had brees. to me, brees is easily a better qb, but it made sense at the time, and rivers has played well.
what i would like to do is compare some great qb numbers to some not so great superbowl winners. i mean, how good was doug williams, brad johnson and trent dilfer? what will make matt moore the greatest qb in panthers history is great play on both sides of the line, a better #2 receiver, and keeping both d-will and j-stew. i have no problem with us winning 13 games next year and moore only throws 20 passes per win…think joe flacco against the patriots.
one more thing, what we really need to end this debate is moore on the field. i hope he gets that starting nod early……..and how the hell does a guy throw 24 tds in his first 8 starts? that’s ridiculous.
If we pull a Ravens on them..
We’d probably break 400 yards rushing alone :)
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
He doesn't have to be the number one QB in the NFL.
or even number 5.
If he can keep it out of the JaMarcus Russell territory, and keep it in the number 8-10 range, the Panthers will do well.
by panthersnbraves on Jan 19, 2010 8:05 AM EST reply actions
What about Matty Ice
How do Moores 1st 8 starts compare to Matt in ATL? He went to a pretty bad team and had a great rookie year. People are sniffing his gas as though it were Channel No.5. Has anyone compared our Matt to Atlanta’s Matt?
Just curious.
Moore vs Ice
Ryan came right in and started all 16 games as a rookie in ‘08. He was immediately considered their “savior.” In his first 8 games, he won 5 (one less than Moore) and had a TS/INT ratio of 9/5, less than Moore’s 11/3.
Ryan’s QB rating in his rookie year was 87.7, declining in ’09 to 80.9.
It’s akin to the lack of press and respect the Panthers get in other areas. Here’s Moore, throwing up numbers (maybe I should say placing them with precision) that exceed almost all other QBs of any note in his first 8 starts — and it’s ignored. I doubt any sportswriters even know it — except for Darin Gantt, and he chooses from love for Jake to ignore it, even disparage it. Isn’t it like the non-publicity given to the great achievement of D-Will and J-Stew in each exceeding 1100 yds rushing in a single season?
Next year the scribes will take note, I predict, as our team returns to be a feared contender.
+100000
We will be a force to be reckoned with in 2010.
If any of the other 31 teams have any questions, consult the rules and regulations.
Moore's first eight start's
include two games where the opponent rested the starters. I don’t know what the situations were for the other quarterbacks on the list, but those two Panther games don’t really give an accurate picture of how good or bad Moore is. The big question regarding Moore is that we don’t have any idea if he can carry the team to a win at the end of the game when we’re trailing, or how he’ll respond after he has a really BAD game (every QB has them.)
Thank you for pointing that out
When you get right down to it, then, we don’t have an idea about much of anything, do we? And the extension of that logic is that why are we posting anything here in the first place?
He is probably a terrible QB, and just got lucky to be put into meaningless games, vs opponents who didn’t care if they won or lost; so next year, we’ll all see how he falls apart when it really counts. Of course he actually hasn’t had “a really BAD game” yet, but you somehow know he will, so I guess his true evaluation will have to wait until he does.
By that logic, if he wins the first 14 games next year, with, say, 22 TDs and 5 INTs, it won’t mean anything until that 15th game, when we fall behind by 14 points — then his real test will come, huh?
I have to say that gripbd does have a point...
(Trust me, I am about 95% convinced that I need to buy a #3 jersey, but hear me out…)
We don’t know what Moore will do if the team gets down by 6 with 1:25 to go with 0 timeouts and 72 yards to go down field on the road. We haven’t been able to see how he plays from behind yet — He may have not put us in a situation where we had to play from behind because of his poor play, but EVERY quarterback has bad days. It just happens. There will come a time when the Panthers are down by 2 possessions in the 4th quarter with Moore at the helm, and we don’t know how he will respond — yet.
What do I think? I think he will succeed. I think we may have found our QB of the next 5-10 years — but again, there’s that little 5% that says: maybe not, let’s see what he’s got first.
I think..
Either..
A) Moore has as good a chance as any QB at a 4th QTR comeback..
Or..
B) When it happens those two or three times a year, I’ll take the loss so long as the rest of the games are wins.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
I completely disagree with the starters theory..
So Moore beat second stringers. Big deal, huh? Well, lets remember that Moore himself is a THIRD string QB. Not to even get into the countless injuries we had. Carolina has practically been “resting starters” since mid season the way they’ve been dropping.
I think it’s irrelevant who was resting starters, that’s on their coaching staff, not Moore. Moore did his job by coming in and playing to the best of his ability regardless who was on the other side of the ball.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
performance
i think the bottom lin eis the numbers, and what we need from him. What we really need is a guy who doesn’t turn the ball over and can make all the throws. Moore has already proven he can do that. He hasn’t proven himself to be a Manning or Favre, but our system doesn’t require that. It would be nice, but our running game and defense are the true muscle and core of our team. So in most of our wins next year, I’m predicting 13, he’ll throw the ball 30 times or less, and most likely less than 25 times in a few games. Regardless of how he plays, if he has to throw it 50 times, we’re losing. So I think it’s safe to say at this point that he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, and throws the ball pretty accurately. He’ll have some bad games, but in the long run, I think he’ll be great for this team and system over the next 10 years.
As far as the other QBs on the list, really, none of them really started their careers with the likes of Beason, Peppers, D-Will, Beef Stew, Smitty, Kalil, Gross and Otah on the roster. All those guys will be in the pro bowl next year.
by usana_gaines on Jan 19, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
I apologize for my sarcasm, gripbd
That was no way to treat a new poster here. You are entitled to your opinion as much as I am.
I went overboard. I guess I am so in love with Matt Moore’s potential that I couldn’t reason correctly. Carry on, my friend.
Accepted, thanks
One big reason that I’m afraid to get too hopeful about Moore is how reuctant the coaching staff was to turn the season over to him when Jake was stinking up the stadium. I don’t buy the loyalty argument. NFL coaches can’t afford that sentiment. I have to think that what they were seeing from in practices made them think that he wasn’t ready. I hope that his success at the end of the season will enable him to raise the level of his game.
Good point.
Though I think I’d rather buy the argument than think the alternative. If it wasn’t a loyalty thing then it could be said our coaching staff is flat out bad at evaluating QB talent given what our starter produced vs our third string QB.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
i think
Moore just didnt show he was confident in starting for the team. i dont think he knew he would be that good if you ask me… maybe his confidence has grown in the games he played as well as the coaches
Or maybe he's just one of those guys who plays better than he practices.
Whatever the reason, Fox was just plain wrong when he said “Jake gives us our best chance at victory.”
I’ll give Fox the benefit of the doubt for that poor evaluation, based on the assumption that Moore had indeed not shown his potential in practice. But that’s no longer any issue now. The guy plain brought it when he got his shot.
The more I post about this, the more excited I get. The off-season’s gonna last forever. But look at the team we’ve got returning! Injured guys get back in the lineup (and there are a TON of them!), and we’ve got as good a set of RBs, LBs, DEs, and DBacks as anybody in the league — and we’ve got OLmen that can move the pile with the best of them, and backups we didn’t know we had when lat year started. What’d I leave out? Oh, 3 very serviceable and young TEs, and one of the most feared WRs around. Just go out and get a PR man (Josh Cribbs, PLEASE!) and a FA #2 WR, and we’re good to go.
I agree with your excitement
regarding the team coming back next year. the defence finally learned how to play Meeks’ system and they found the big body that they needed upfront. It also looks like the offensive line has depth.
I still think that Fox was right when he said, “Jake gives us our best chance…” At that stage of the season, they were playing so bad that they needed a QB that could stage a comeback, and Jake had proved that he could do it in the past.
I think that what we heard was Fox-speak regarding the overall level of play by the team rather than an endorsement for Jake.
The fact that they immediately put McCown on IR rather than waiting for him to heal says that they didn’t think that they could rely on Jake. And they were afraid that Matt wasn’t ready.
My first hope is that the defense will continue to play the way that they finished the season and we never have to find out if Moore can pull off the great comeback. More realistically, I hope that with game experience he developes the confidence for when he needs it.
“The fact that they immediately put McCown on IR rather than waiting for him to heal says that they didn’t think that they could rely on Jake. And they were afraid that Matt wasn’t ready.”
I don’t understand what you’re saying. If we didn’t feel we could rely on Jake, why would we have put McCown on IR so quickly? I would think it would take another guy just as long to learn the offense as it would McCown to heal, if that was the scenario.
However, what’s done is done and I wouldn’t have it any other way, personally. I’m completely satisfied with the results we have right now and wouldn’t risk any changes if given the opportunity again. Moore seen his proper emergence and should be ready to take control next year,
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Explanation
The panthers have had only two QB’s on the roster in the past. If Mcown was out for a month it would only be for 2-3 games. If they had confidence in Jake, I think that they would have risked having only one back-up – how often does a team really need to use the 3rd QB – to keep a QB that knew the system. But I think that they were afraid that Jake was going to be essentially unplayable, which would mean that they’d be down to one QB.
Loyalty
is entirely the reason. Jake and John have been together 7 years. 7 years of film rooms and training camp and playoff battles. I’m sure they are pretty close.
As a Skins fan as well, I can still remember the Joe Gibbs/Mark Brunell infatuation, both being devout Christians and “good” people. Meanwhile, Brunell was about 37 and the worst quarterback I’ve still ever seen. About 60% of passing plays were screens under Mark, and if they tried to go 10 yards down field he would skip it to a receiver or throw it into the stands while Joe would just comment post-game on what a “veteran” move it was to throw the ball away and what a protector of the ball he was as he fumbled game after game.
These are still human beings and very rarely do we just blatantly stab each other in the back. Moore also isn’t some 1st round draft pick or $10mm a year backup so there wasn’t as much pressure from the media or fans to bench Jake. This is also the main reason I am very adamantly against bringing Jake back next year as the backup. Fox will be too tempted and really just won’t mesh well. We need a clean break from Jake. Bring in a vet (possibly Mccown again) and a mid round draft pick and go from there.
Boy! Now I got TWO things to hope for!
Before I was just hoping that Moore that would come out smoking next year, taking up where he left off.
Now I’ve got to ALSO hope that Fox doesn’t get all up into that loyalty thing again.
Sheesh.
Delhomme could be back..
Specifically (Well, not specifically but in addition to other stated reasons) for evaluating Fox. It’s sneaky, and unlikely, but J.R. could be interested in seeing just how Fox does handle the situation next year. Can he put the past to the side and focus on the now or is he stuck in old ways, signaling that the Panthers need move on in 2011 (or 12)?
Could be the fact that I’m tired and I’m sure I’m wrong but your post really got that thought stuck in my head.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
You're tired!
Look at poor me – I can’t sleep a wink, with worry!
It would be like
divorcing your wife and then dating a new girl before the ex has moved out of the house. Just a disaster waiting to happen.
Loyalty
And I can’t accept this as an over riding decision making factor from an NFL coach. For example, if ever a player decerved loyalty, it was Ken Lucas fot the way that he handled the Steve Smith incident. Instead they made football decision and cut him. If John Fox let loyalty get in the way, he never would have lasted as an assistant, let alone advance to head coach.
I think that the decision to keep playing Jake was much more complex. Based on what they had seen from MM, they didn’t think that he could make the right decisions if the team needed to stage a drive in the final 2 minutes of a game. Jake had proved that he could do that, hence the “best chance to win” quote. The team (players) still had confidence in Jake, although I suspect that it was fading. If they benched Jake as a starter, it would wreck that confidence, and it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to go back, and they would be hanging the fate of the season on a QB that no one had any confidence in.(At that point in the season.) Confidence is essential to have a winning team, so they had to choose between the QB with the team’s shakey, fading confidence or the one no one had confidence in.
Once Jake got hurt, it was easier to start Moore. The players would accept the decision because there weren’t any other options.
John Elway proved his ability to make a comeback too but Foxy didn’t call him up, did he? Fox was blinded by his loyalty. Sure it wasn’t the only reason (like I mentioned, none of our backups had much of a pedigree) so it was conceivable that he was right in his belief. But most people with an unbiased eye could see Jake was the one “not making the right decisions” and being 35 or so, isn’t the future of the position for us.
His only saving grace in his decision to continue starting Jake is that none of our other options were (and still aren’t) a sure thing to be part of our future either.
Also
8 seasons of working directly with QB > loyalty > CB who played 3 seasons and didn’t really do anything special (was he supposed to sue the team or something?)
I'm sorry, but your point about Elway is irrelevant
Delhomme has come back before, what’s to say he wouldn’t do it again?
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 26, 2010 6:55 AM EST up reply actions
Ultimately, we all want to be able to see into the future... but it's simply impossible.
Unfotunately we’ll all just have to wait a little longer before we can say with certainty that Matt Moore is a bonafide star in the NFL.
Until then it’s fun to prognosticate but we know no more about Matt Moore than the Lions know about Matthew Stafford.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
You're missing the point
I’m not trying to tear down Matt Moore. I REALLY hope that he turns out to be the reincarnation of Johnny Unitas, but I’m also trying to stay grounded in reality. My point about responding to a bad game is whether he’ll be able to forget it or will he turn into another David Carr.
I also think that compairing him to highly rated QB’s that started out with bad teams is grossly misleading. Let’s compair him to QB’s that started out with good teams. (Maybe Kyle Orton)?
The Panther played like two differant teams this past season. At the start, the defence couldn’t stop the run and special teams kept the team in a hole. Jake really sucked but I don’t think that they would have won many more games if we had Payton Manning let alone Matt Moore starting at QB.
The defence that played against the Vikings and the Giants was as good as any that I’ve ever seen, and Stewie had two outstanding games. Again, not knocking MM – he played very solid games – but the Panthers didn’t need him to be good to win those games.
I got'cha..
And agree, though I must admit I don’t think we would have won those games had Delhomme been starting. Stew would have never been on the field long enough to rack those yards up because we’d be giving the ball back on every third down via incomplete pass or interception.
That’s really my whole key. Running the ball is our game but with that comes a few times when we’re going to inevitably end up 3rd and 5+ yards. We need a QB that can turn that into a 1st down and let us keep on running, imo.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
This is my perspective too
I know we don’t need a Peyton Manning type QB to bes successful, but it sure would be nice!
I just want to retain a measure of composure and clarity before I look at these really great stats bigdavis shows in this post and extrapolate that to show he’s going to be one of the best QBs in the league. I think he’s definitely shown a ton of potential, but he also has alot to work on.
Matt Moore will have ‘arrived’ if he can keep up his production from 2009 and couple that with being a leader. That’s the element I want to see from more… I want to see him have the confidence to lead that offense. If those two things happen I will be ready, willing and able to say we have an elite QB on the roster.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Jan 19, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Full Season
I would agree that we can speculate all we want, but what it will come down to is seeing him go through a full season. I do like his potential.
"I also think that compairing him to highly rated QB’s that started out with bad teams is grossly misleading."
Now that made me go back and research a little more.
And wouldn’t you know, that wasn’t my comparison at all.
I was indeed comparing his stats (again, 1st 8 starts only, as that’s all he’s had) to those highly rated QBs — but it’s just not true that they came on to “bad teams.”
Maybe that’s our memory of how these guys resurrected bad franchises, to take them from the ashes to the heights. But here are the FACTS:
Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe with the Pats (very hotly debated change at the time, if any of you were around then) in 2001 — the Pats had gone 8-8 in 2000 — not a “bad” team.
Peyton Manning replaced Jim Harbaugh with the Colts in 1998 — the Colts had gone 8-8 in ‘97 — not a “bad” team. So what’d Peyton do to start things off? Lost 7 of his first 8!
Drew Brees replaced Doug Flutie with the Chargers in 2002 — the Chargers had gone 8-8 in 2001 — not a “bad” team.
Donovan McNabb replaced a variety of mediocre QBs with the Eagles midway into 1999. Yet the Eagles had gone 8-8 in 1998, and were 5-5 in ’99 — not a “bad” team.
Grossly misleading?
Sorry bigdavis, but we need to clarify a few things
- Colts were 3-13 in 1997, they drafted Peyton Manning following this season and went 3-13 in 1998. They were 9-7 in 1995 and 9-7 in 1996.
- Chargers were 1-15 in 2000, they drafted LaDanian Tomlinson in rd1 and Drew Brees in rd2 following this season and went 5-11 in 2001. They were 8-8 in 1999.
- Eagles were 3-13 in 1998, they drafted Donavan McNabb following this season and went 5-11 in 1999.
You don’t have the draft and the season synced up.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
You are absolutely right, and I am totally embarassed
I won’t even explain what stupidity caused me to misread the team totals I came up with. Not my best day. I will now withdraw and have some ice cream to revive myself.
Meh, happens to the best of us
If brain farts should last more than 4 hours consult a Doctor as this could be the sign of a serious medical problem
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
I think Moore
Has the ability to be one of the best in the league. If you go back and look at the games he’s played, you can see that he’s made mistakes, got hit, and fell on his butt(panthers v. saints)…but he got it together to help the panthers pull out wins.AND as we plainly see he’s getting better the more games he plays. He helped d. jarrett get his FIRST td of the season!!! wait HIS CAREER!!! Thats reason enough for him to start and be our future qb!!!lol
bottom line
The real story behind Moore is this he took what was going to be a 4-12 team lost its two star offensive play makers to injury with a makeshift O-line and still brought the team to 8-8. I don’t think he is Manning or Brady, but he is better then many of the guys out there over the last 5 games and leaps and bounds better then Delhomme this season.
Is he the future of this team no one really knows, was he what this team needed to win yes.
The big question, is he the future?
The answer is a simple yes, in the fact that he is the future for next year. At that point we should re-evaluate.
Just like we do every season
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 20, 2010 2:08 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe this seasons stats are more relevant
This whole coversation is interesting but I guess what matters to me is what have you done for me lately. Here the stats for this year for each of these QBs.
QB TDs, Ints, Rating
Brady 28, 13, 96.2
P Manning 33, 16, 99.9
Ben R 26, 12, 100.5
Rivers 28, 9, 104.4
Brees 34, 11, 109.6
Warner 26, 14, 93.2
E Manning 27, 14, 93.1
McNabb 22, 10, 92.9
Moore (5) 8, 2, 98.5
Moore (proj. 16) 25.6, 6.4, 98.5
While there is no guarentee that Moore would have put up these projected number I would have to point out that the game he did play was against some pretty good defenses (Vikings, Giants, Patriots, Saints and Tampa). This is more relevant to me than what has happened with any of these teams the last 4 years since this would be playing against this years competition with their current teams which were all pretty good. Moore’s projectd stats are enough for me to want to see him start a whole season.
Those who are still skeptical about him won't accept that (but I might - LOL)
No way they’ll let you get away with extrapolating 5 games’ results into 16, of equal performance. But then who’s to say another 11 games might not have been even better?
I think it’s evident his play in ‘09 would rank him among the league’s best. But the jury’s still out as to whether he can extend that fine play next year, when:
1) defenses game-plan against him
2) he might hit his own “sophomore slump,” since this was in reality his first year of being “the guy.” You never know how he might look at himself differently, and get the big head.
3) he could face injury himself.
I, for one, also favor recent game performance, over what happened four years ago.
My personal belief of Moore..
Is that he will meet and exceed the requirements @ QB for this team in going to, and winning, the Super Bowl next year. I’ll be more than happy if that happens, regardless of specific statistical performance :)
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
I think that this post shows that we agree more than we disagree...
But I don’t want to jump on the Matt Moore bandwagon Jake still might end up being the starting QB next season. If that happens and I’m riding the MM bandwagon, I’ll probably have negative thoughts on the upcoming season, and I at least like to start the season with positive thoughts!
Lawboy
How bout looking up the stars stats throught the 1st 8 games of this season and comparing them to Moore? I know…I’m a lazy bum but don’t have time to do all that at work. (smile)
Me neither....
That’s why I used the most convient stat available which was the season totals for each.
This discussion seems to be rehashing the same points over and over...
so I’d like to throw in this point. What if the touchdown the Saints scored when MM fell on his butt hadn’t been overturned, and they were playing their starters. Personally, I think that the Panthers were a better team than the Saints at the end of the season and they should win. However, with the starters playing, I also think that the game would have been close and a TO with a TD could very easily been the difference. My point is that it’s exactly the kind of mistake that Jake was making that so many of you are saying cost us the season. Would you still be on the Matt Moore bandwagon?
I believe so..
Then again I’m not really on his bandwagon.. I maintain that Moore should get as fair a shot as any in training camp but see nothing as a given to anyone. No one really disliked Delhomme for throwing one turn over, or pick six, but for the many that amounted on the season (and multiple per game). I think some may be more cautious but would still like to see him get a fair chance at starting.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
A training camp battle between Delhomme and Moore is pointless
So if after, say two weeks of training camp, Jon Fox comes out with the , “Jake is the QB that gives this team its best chance to be successful,” line, you will be ok with that? So what if in training camp, the coaching staff sees the same things they saw last year? They see what they believe to be a clear superiority of Delhomme as an NFL QB, compared to Moore, and decide to put Moore behind Delhomme on the QB depth chart again. Would that be the right move?
Delhomme “out performing” Moore in camp should out-weigh Moore’s (vastly) superior effort in 2009? Considering you’re in favor of an open competition in training camp, is that what you think? Is how players perform in camp more important than how they actually perform on the field during NFL games?
"There's no glory today in what was done yesterday."
If Delhomme performs better throughout training camp and pre-season, he gets the start. If Delhomme starts week 1 and plays terribly, he gets the bench. Quite simple, really. At least, that’s how I’d call it.
By your logic (or what I perceived as your implied logic based on your reply), we might as well skip training camp altogether as it serves purpose.
If we’re looking at previous seasons, why don’t we go ahead and look at the 2003/04 season? Refer to the headline if “2009 is more relevant than 2003”. I’m not trying to take the sugar out of your Moore kool-aid (I hope he’s the future of this team) but I refuse to be as blind to Moore as some were to Delhomme last season. No one gets the start ‘just because’, I want to see them earn it. If he continues to play as he did to finish this season (or even half as well), there is no doubt in my mind that he will then earn the starting position.
ps. I would hope no decision is made until the pre-season ends.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Coming into the conversation a bit late, but here are my thoughts on Matt Moore:
1. I am extremely pleased with his performance at the end of the season.
2. He put up ridiculous numbers, like in the Vikings game, but things change completely when expectations are added. Meaning, coming in as a starter when we are already out of the playoffs is much different from coming into a season with Super Bowl aspirations.
3. I liked the way he spread the ball around. Play action to Hoover in the flat makes the defense think and cover more people and areas. My guess is Jake’s issues were above the neck (forcing it to Smitty anyone).
4. I was happy to see him manage the game better than Jake was. Turnovers absolutely killed our chances early in the season.
5. I think Matt Moore has a lot of potential and could be a great QB for the Panthers (game manager not a slinger like Peyton or Brees), I just do not think he is anywhere near ready to be anointed yet. Lets see what he does next Summer and Fall.
Will Parker
This
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 22, 2010 2:35 AM EST up reply actions
Hey, we're all on board with that waiting and seeing.
I’ve said I’m not anointing, deifying, or calling him a savior. Of course he’s not ready for his bust in Canton.
But what is not mentioned by anybody but me is what I mentioned is my first post on his effectiveness — his quick release and his quick decision-making.
I’m sure I’m the only one here with the time and interest to slo-mo every pass play of a whole game of his, to time the number of seconds it took him to get the ball out of his hand after the snap — what I saw, and painstakingly reported to the blog (tho I doubt it was read by many at the time) was what evoked a greater excitement in me than even his TD/INT ratio — which BTW, when I did my little stopwatch thingie, hadn’t even BEGUN yet — nor had he even faced the Vikings, Giants, or Saints.
So I’m now all the way out on my self-created limb, in saying that my prediction back then (after the TB game) was right, that we’ve got a special case here. It’s been proven right thus far, by results of games that followed. And I further predict that 2010 will bring even better results for us all to revel in.
Now, after what, 115+ posts have been made on this topic, I’m gonna give it a rest. I guess if it’s gotten that many responses (granted a lot of them mine (!), it doesn’t need a Rec — but I do hope we can recall all that’s been said, say mid-season next year.
I was not referring to you or anyone else's comments.
I have not had the time recently to read and post on here, so I wanted to share some of my thoughts on the Matt Moore topic.
I look forward of seeing him as the starter next year.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jan 22, 2010 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
Good QB position review from Panthers.com
Interesting that getting Cantwell off the practice squad for 2 games locks him up for us next year. Had he stayed on the PS, any other team could have picked him up.
And classy comments by Delhomme on his team attitude.
Steve Reed's take on the problem the Moore contract resigning presents to the Panthers
(excerpt):
“The idea of essentially using Moore as trade bait – essentially tempting teams to give up draft picks to get him as an RFA – is risky, and, to me, doesn’t make much sense.
The bottom line is this: If the Panthers feel strongly about Moore, why risk losing him?
Let’s face it, if Moore walks, who’s your quarterback of the future? The Panthers are left with the 35-year-old Delhomme as their starting quarterback next season — a prospect that should bother the coaching staff given Delhomme’s 8-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2009 – unrestricted free agent Josh McCown and unproven and undrafted rookie Hunter Cantwell.
The idea of draft pick compensation is exciting, sure, but the reality is it often takes time to develop young quarterbacks. There are exceptions like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Mark Sanchez – guys who have stepped in and won games right away – but Moore has been in Jeff Davidson’s system now for three years and has shown he can handle the role. I don’t know what more he needs to prove to coaches.
That’s what makes extending a tender to Moore a risky move.
The smarter option? Sign Moore to a long-term extension, assuring his future with the team well into this decade.
That’s what I’d do. Of course it sounds simple, but I realize there are a lot of factors at work including coach John Fox’s status as a lame duck (would a new coach want Moore or his own guy?) and the increasing uncertainty of whether or not there will even be football beyond 2010 given the lack of a collective bargaining agreement.”
For someone who makes his living writing about the Panthers...
Steve Reed constantly underimpresses me. I’m sure that the Panthers want to keep Matt Moore as next years likely starting QB. If they really wanted to trade him (which I doubt) they will want some control over where he goes. They will not tender him with the purpose of “using him as trade bait.” The tender gives teams some breathing room in negotiating a new contract and give both the player and team a chance to gauge the player’s real market value.
The problem with long term contracts now is that teams use the long term contracts to address the salary cap as much as they do to tie up a player. And right now, no one knows what the salary cap will be in the future. The owners are reported to be demanding an 18% cut in the cap and theres no point in signing a player to a long term contract that has to be scrapped in year to comply with the new cap
Perhaps I should have excerpted more of his article...
" The Panthers find themselves in an interesting dilemma with Moore set to become a restricted free agent (RFA) in March.
They can extend Moore a second-round tender ($1.545 million last year), a first-round tender (worth $2.198 million last year) or a first-and third-round tender (worth $2.792 million last year) prior to the March 5 deadline. But if they do, the Panthers run the risk of losing him to another team. Although none of the 55 RFAs in the league last off-season changed teams, Moore’s situation could be different given the dearth of quality players at his position, thus prompting a quarterback needy team to give up draft picks to get him."
Reed doubts the Panthers want to trade him, also. The above makes it clear that they run a risk of losing him if they use any form of tender to retain him. Thus Reed makes the case for avoiding such a risk by signing Moore to a LTC. I’m not underimpressed by such reasoning.
If I read your meaning correctly, you think the wisest option for the team is to tender him, right? If so, do you disagree with Reed about the # of teams out there who would jump at the chance to get him, and that it presents a real risk of his loss?
We should put him on the max tender
Much as the Jets are expected to do with Braylon Edwards.
Truth is, it’s still too early to give Moore the long term contract- on both sides. For the Panthers they wont offer him big money because he’s relatively unproven, and on Moore’s side it’s better he waits and if he performs big again in 2010 then he justifies the big contract.
So, tender him and if a team is in love with him let them give up a 1st and 3rd round pick for him.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
And with a 1st and a 3rd, you believe we could obtain another QB that knows the system and performs as efficiently as has Moore?
Seems like a big gamble to me.
And I realize there’s another player obtained in your scenario, but his performance in the last 5 games would be hard to duplicate, wouldn’t it?
What is your suggestion?
Should we sign Matt Moore to a 6 year deal now?
That seems like far bigger a gamble than possibly letting a team throw a 1st and 3rd our way, lest we sign him to a mega deal with having no idea what the salary cap will look like 2011 and beyond. If he underperforms or (dare I say) fails then we have a vast majority of our cap tied to one ineffective player.
As to answer your question:
- Yes, it would be very hard to find a player who could duplicate his performance over the last 3 games (I wasn’t impressed with the TB and NE games).
However, what’s to say Matt Moore will be able to duplicate Matt Moore’s performance over the last 3 games?
Yes, tendering him is a gamble… but one where we’re gambling with house money in my mind. We tender Moore, if he stays great, we get a full season to be reassured that he is the future quarterback of the Carolina Panthers.
If a team loves him and gives us the picks, well, that sucks… but the blow is lessened knowing we can have our pick of the QB litter (depending on who gives us the pick) and a 3rd rounder to get some additional depth.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Hey, I'm not arguing with you.
I never said anything about a 6-year deal, either. He hasn’t been consistent over a long enough period of time to get a career contract like that.
But yes, I would avoid the very gamble you describe (because there are so many teams who’d jump at him, IMO, trading their picks) because I think it’s more than a 50-50 gamble. And if we lost him, the “blow” might be lessened, but then there are 2 imponderables, not the one you describe when you say “what’s to say…” And it might be looked back at as the biggest blunder the FO ever made, if he were picked up by another team, and went on to the career I envision for him.
I’d try to work out a 3-year deal, somewhere around $2 million per, with incentives for performance, post-season, and league honors.
I think it’s as important to the continuity of the team’s strong finish to sign him as it is to lock up Thomas Davis and Julius Peppers — Landon Johnson doesn’t interest me at all; Keydrick Vincent is a secondary priority. After the threads posted on Vincent and Johnson, I anticipate more on other players, just so the posters here can express their opinions on them.
James, I respect your opinions and input greatly — you’re one of the prime reasons I think this is the best sports blogs in existence. But you and I see Matt Moore in different lights. Only how he does next season will align us more closely. The logic of “what’s to say he can duplicate…” always sounds weak to me — I prefer to see it as what’s to stop him from even improving on it.
If I said something to incinuate that I'm getting heated, or that I'm being argumentative I'm sorry, nothing could be further from how I feel.
I love having discussions like this in a mature manor… and I thank you for providing counterpoints. A person can’t grow if they don’t think about and digest others opinions.
There are just so many unknowns in this situation. Yes, if we lose him it could ultimately be one of the biggest blunders in team history, or if we sign him to a long term deal the same could occur.
Honestly, I too have advocated a 2-3 year deal, low guaranteed, high incentive deal. Something akin to what Brady Quinn got with Cleveland, but it seems more and more likely this situation is heading to tender.
I agree with you that the ’what’s to say he can duplicate?’ argument is typically weak, but call me gun shy from DeShaun Foster a few seasons back.
We’re going to have to agree to disagree on the chances a team would sign him despite the tender. Really, the only teams I see looking for a new QB are:
- St. Louis (#1 overall)
- Seattle (#6 overall)
- Washington (#4 overall)
- Cleveland (#7 overall)
- Oakland (#8 overall)
- Buffalo (#9 overall)
- Jacksonville (#10 overall)
Teams value those #1 draft picks like gold. It will be very, very tough to not only give up 1st and 3rd rounder for Matt Moore, but be hooked into a long term deal for him.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
"we’re gambling with house money"
I gamble a lot, and derive a great deal of my discretionary income from it.
A good gamble is weighing the probabilities of outcome, in light of the price you have to pay (the odds) to achieve a win a greater percentage of the time, and then sending it in.
You view Moore as “I could take him or leave him, because I can’t predict whether he’s a 3-game wonder or not.” (Not that I’m quoting you; I know you never said that — you know what I mean.)
I view him as possessing a rare combination of qualities that wasn’t even evident to the (has anyone ever called them ‘brilliant’ before? I didn’t think so) coaches on the Panthers until he got into the games as a starter, not a mop-up Hail Mary heaver, and showed what he could do to lead the team and get the whole roster excited to be playing again.
I know you didn't quote me directly, but here's exactly how I'm feeling
It’s not that I see Matt Moore as a ‘take it or leave it’ player. I think he’s definitely shown the potential that he can be a good quarterback.
My dilemma is this:
“Do I think that Matt Moore will have a better pro career than Sam Bradford?”
That’s how I’m feeling in a nutshell. The idea of seeing ‘Bradford’ on the back on a Panthers jersey was such a pipedream at one time I never would have entertained it, now though with this talk of tender that’s what I’m struggling with and I don’t know that answer.
Say Seattle and Pete Carroll fall in love with Matt Moore and Carroll wants to bring him back to the Pacific Northwest. That #6 pick is Sam Bradford, I guarantee it. I could definitely be countered with the ‘bird in the hand’ argument, but I just personally see Bradford’s ceiling as higher.
This has been a really fun thread
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
It is fun
Every time I think it’s been exhausted, some new wrinkle gets thrown into it, and I get to talking again about it.
Of course, you’re exactly right that we can’t know in advance what’s going to happen (with any player, until they’ve shown consistency over a long period of time — and yet the interesting paradox of that is that , by the time they do, their career is usually on the downside of the bell curve.) So the “fun” is speculating about the unknown future, based on glimpses of great play that may or may not ever be repeated.
I hope I haven’t jinxed the kid by being SO optimistic about his future. But like paydirt recently mentioned, he’s given the fans some anticipation and enthusiasm about next year that we surely wouldn’t have had if he’d flopped, and we’d ended up 5-11 or 6-10. (Think there’d be so many posts on CSR now if that’s happened? LOL)
We do get right of first refusal if we tender him though
So if the right offer doesn’t come around we can say Adios muchachos, better luck next time.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 24, 2010 1:50 AM EST up reply actions
"knows the system and performs efficiently as Moore has"
This has been a great thread , very provocative, very educational, but to me that quote sums up my enthusiasim and anticipation about entering the 2010 season with Matt Moore as our projected starting QB. IMO, continuity is the key to our offseason, we have to try to keep the primary pieces in place if we’re going to make a big run in 2010.
IMO Matt Moore emerging as a bonafide starting QB is the most important thing that came out of the 2009 season. It’s in his best interest and the Panthers best interest that he wears a Panthers uniform in 2010. Whatever it takes both sides have to get it done.
Wow.
I’m torn between you guys. I honestly can’t figure out which path is more intriguing. I’d love to see Moore start for us next year but a 1st and a 3rd is hard to turn down. I suppose, in the end, I’d be happy with either out-come. It’s a win-win for me, then :).
I will say, if Moore does leave, my enthusiasm for a 2010 Super Bowl run will be dampened. Nowhere near drowned out, but dampened. However I’d feel good entering the draft in a much bettered position.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
I 1st and 3rd seems a lot for a team to give up on the guy
he’s looked good…but that good?
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Yes, I disagree wth Steve Reed about the number of teams that would want Moore
He included the Rams (no way ever that they would give up the 1st pick overall, and if they are on crack, we should jump on it and draft Suh) and the Raiders who need a QB but Al Davis isn’t ready to give up on Jamarcus yet. I didn’t analyze the other teams that he listed but I’m very sceptical that there are teams willing to invest a 1st and 3rd round pick, plus a big contract with the uncertainty regarding the 2011 season and future salary caps in MM based on solid games against the Vikings the Giants.
Also, what SR is ignoring(?) is that the tender is just the first step in resigning him – it’s not a final offer. The poison pill that SR refers to only comes into play if MM’s primary objective is to get out of Charlotte. If that’s the case, we’d be better off with the picks. We don’t really have to match another teams offer, we only have to make a competitive counter-offer.If Carolina’s contract offer is based on what someone else is offering, it will reflect his true market value.
If what you say is true, I'm cool with that.
But to me, the most important thing is getting some continuity on a roster that plays and thinks as a team, and shows the chemistry that produces champions.
After that championship (or 2-3) is obtained, it usually doesn’t last long, due to increased salary demands, age, injury, etc. — so the idea is to build steadily toward it by keeping your nucleus of talent intact and tweaking it with new guys where they’re needed.
If I hadn’t been so impressed by how the Panthers came alive the last few games. I wouldn’t be so eager to go with the new status quo. And to me, Moore was the catalyst for that, inspiring the defense as well by not turning it over every time they made a stop, as well as managing his offense and contributing TDs.
+1
People (not referring to anyone on CSR btw, just meaning in general) can say what they will but, while I have no proof, I could only imagine that there must be a different mind frame for a defensive player going to the bench knowing that their offense has just as good a chance as any to score vs knowing they lead the league (or nearly) in interceptions and just waiting for a turn over. Likewise, they must have a different mind frame coming off of the bench knowing they just got 7 points vs coming off of the bench on some sort of turn over (rather it be int, fumble, punt, etc).
Sure it can be said that “they get paid to do it, it’s their job” but how many of us haven’t had our performance at work deterred by outside factors? Especially those who have team oriented jobs. Job or not, there has got to be two different mentalities on defense given the two situations. I currently believe Moore brings out the best mentality.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Wouldn't Romo be a better comparison?
both are undrafted QB’s.
And Eli sucks. Most overrated QB of all time.
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Probably would be a better comparison -- thanks for bringing him into the discussion
I only went with the QBs mentioned in the post to which I was originally replying. (Interesting to note that, on that other site, the origin al poster never even replied to me.)
As for Romo, he was an identical 6-2 in his first 8 starts (back in ‘06) — he threw for 13 TDs and 7 INTs in those games. Romo is 6’ 2", 226; Moore is 6’ 3", 202 — Moore is 4 years younger, but they were just about the same age when they put up those numbers.
As I recall, when Romo broke in, and started with a 6-2 record, the press went pretty much wild about him and his future.
Because he played for the Cowboys
Moore is like Romo in more ways than one, except he doesn’t have the gunslinging attitude.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 25, 2010 2:35 AM EST up reply actions
That's another advantage we have
Our punter is the holder so there’s no controversy.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 26, 2010 6:51 AM EST up reply actions
There is still no topic that gets up riled than the Delhomme vs Moore topic
I imagine we’ll be talking about all off-season
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
True, because we won't know for 7 months any more than we know now.
…but at least it’s fun to hope for good things, isn’t it? Imagine if we’d lost the last 3 games!
All the talk would be about blowing up the whole lineup, instead of dreaming about continuity and plugging a very few holes.
Matt Moore: Eric Zeier or Dan Marino? (or somewhere in between?)
CHARLOTTE — Some numbers are hard to ignore.
On the negative side for Carolina’s quarterbacks was Jake Delhomme’s touchdown-to-interception ratio; at minus-10 (eight-to-18), it was the worst in the league. The Panthers were 3-7 when their starting quarterback had a negative or even TD/INT ratio and 5-1 when it was positive, once again cementing the connection between turnovers and defeat.
Having got that out of the way, let’s turn to an equally resonant number on the positive side.
If Matt Moore’s 104.9 quarterback rating as a starter had been accomplished in a quarter or even a game or two, it could easily be brushed off as a fluke. If you give a pro passer enough starts, he’ll have one bright day; even Ryan Leaf had a 111.8 rating thanks to a three-touchdown, 311-yard performance in 2000 at Denver.
But Moore’s number came over five games, not just one. In Weeks 13-17 this past season, it was only exceeded among quarterbacks who threw at least 100 passes by San Diego’s Philip Rivers.
It also measures impressively among young quarterbacks since 1978, when the schedule expanded to 16 games. In that span, there have been 203 occasions where a quarterback aged 25 or younger threw at least 100 passes in the final five games of a regular season.
The overwhelming majority of them (139 of 203) yielded ratings below 80.0. Moore was one of just nine with a rating over 100; all are listed below:
100 RATING, GAMES 12-16, AGE 25 OR YOUNGER
QB TEAM YEAR AGE STATS RATING
Eric Zeier Baltimore 1997 25 65-109, 942 yds., 7 TD, 0 INT 109.2
Dan Marino Miami 1984 23 134-210, 1,744 yds., 18 TD, 6 INT 106.5
Matt Moore Carolina 2009 25 79-126, 990 yds., 8 TD, 1 INT 104.9
Brett Favre Green Bay 1994 25 128-194, 1,485 yds., 15 TD, 5 INT 104.0
Bernie Kosar Cleveland 1988 24 75-117, 933 yds., 6 TD, 1 INT 102.3
Boomer Esiason Cincinnati 1985 24 76-132, 1,242 yds., 10 TD, 4 INT 101.9
Daunte Culpepper Minnesota 2000 23 85-135, 1,018 yds., 10 TD, 3 INT 101.4
Boomer Esiason Cincinnati 1986 25 92-147, 1,418 yds., 9 TD, 5 INT 100.7
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay 2008 24 113-177, 1,439 yds., 11 TD, 4 INT 100.5
While promising, Moore’s rating as 2009 concluded is no guarantee of long-term success. Yes, six of the eight other names listed above (Boomer Esiason had two such seasons) were Pro Bowlers at some point in their careers, with Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers the most recent addition to that class. One of them (Dan Marino) is a Hall of Famer; another (Brett Favre) certainly will be.
But if you haven’t noted the name atop the list, you should. Eric Zeier failed to build off his surge and saw most of his key statistics drop the following season: his touchdown-to-interception ratio dropped to 4-to-3; his yardage per attempt slumped by more than a full yard to 7.2. By midseason, he was benched in favor of Jim Harbaugh. By 1999 he was in Tampa Bay, with which he started just one game — a 20-3 loss at Detroit — and by 2001 he was out of the league entirely.
Moore’s performance late in the 2009 season represents a stronger base from which to build than most quarterbacks possess. Having a pair of 1,100-yard runners and a 6-2 career record as a starter won’t hurt No. 3 much, either.
But it’s just a foundation, and nothing more.
120.0 RATING, THREE TOUCHDOWNS, ZERO INTERCEPTIONS
Of the 512 starts made by all NFL quarterbacks in 2009, just 34 of them (6.64 percent) saw passers finish with a rating above 120 and at least three touchdown passes with no interceptions.
Moore had two such starts, a total matched by seven other quarterbacks but surpassed by only two: New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Minnesota’s Brett Favre; they had three and five games, respectively, in which they reached those statistical mileposts. However, Brees had 15 starts and Favre 16; Moore made only five starts and hit the trifecta in 40 percent of them.
120.0 RATING, 3 TDs, 0 INTs IN 2009
QUARTERBACK GAMES QUARTERBACK GAMES
Brett Favre, MIN 5 Jay Cutler, CHI 1
Drew Brees, NO 3 Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF 1
Tom Brady, NE 2 Bruce Gradkowski, OAK 1
Eli Manning, NYG 2 Joe Flacco, BAL 1
Donovan McNabb, PHI 2 David Garrard, JAX 1
Matt Moore, CAR 2 Matt Hasselbeck, SEA 1
Aaron Rodgers, GB 2 Carson Palmer, CIN 1
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 2 Brady Quinn, CLE 1
Tony Romo, DAL 2 Philip Rivers, SD 1
Kurt Warner, AZ 2 Matt Schaub, HOU 1
Games with that combination of statistics are even more rare in Panthers history, with just nine in 240 regular-season games since the franchise’s inception; with a frequency of 3.75 percent, they take place once every 26.7 games — a little less than twice in a three-year span.
Moore hit those numbers in consecutive games, the first time any Panthers quarterback did so since Steve Beuerlein in Weeks 14 and 15 of the 1999 season. Beuerlein is the franchise’s leader in 120.0/3/0 games with four; three came during his memorable 1999 season when he went to the Pro Bowl and
120.0 RATING, 3 TDs, 0 INTs PANTHERS HISTORY
QB DATE OPPONENT STATS RATING
Steve Beuerlein 11/24/96 Houston 11-18, 165 yds., 3 TD, 0 INT 130.8
Steve Beuerlein 11/28/99 Atlanta 18-27, 262 yds., 3 TD, 0 INT 135.1
Steve Beuerlein 12/12/99 at Green Bay 29-42, 373 yds., 3 TD, 0 INT 120.4
Steve Beuerlein 12/18/99 San Francisco 27-38, 368 yds., 4 TD, 0 INT 136.7
Jake Delhomme 12/26/04 at Tampa Bay 19-24, 214 yds., 4 TD, 0 INT 143.4
Jake Delhomme 10/30/05 Minnesota 21-30, 341 yds., 3 TD, 0 INT 141.1
Jake Delhomme 9/9/07 at St. Louis 18-27, 199 yds., 3 TD, 0 INT 125.4
Matt Moore 12/20/09 Minnesota 21-33, 299 yds., 3 TD, 0 INT 123.2
Matt Moore 12/27/09 at N.Y. Giants 15-20, 171 yds., 3 TD, 0 INT 139.8
GIVE NO QUARTER: Moore’s rating rose throughout the games in which he played, going from 88.0 in the first quarter to 95.7 in the second, 106.1 in the third and 107.4 in the fourth. However, his most productive quarter in terms of yardage was the second quarter; he passed for 365 yards in the second quarters of his games.
This was almost certainly due to his pass frequency in the second quarter; he threw 59 times in that quarter — six times more than he did in all the second halves in which he played. Such imbalance is typical for a team playing with a second-half lead, as Moore did in four of his five starts.
bigdavis...thanks for sharing
but really not copacetic to copy an entire post. Should really only pull the pieces you like and then link it up. It’s one of the those blogger codes…
I do like the piece.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
I could say that you've been chugging the kool-aid...
but don’t stop, it tastes a hellava lot sweeter than the stuff that we had to drink after last years debacle. LOL
I really do hope that you’re right!
True, true
Come April every team and fan will be filled with optimism.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Wow!
You keep getting more info! You’ve made a very strong case for Moore in finding this info, it’s hard to understand why or how anyone could deny him his chance to start in the NFL. Guys have to start somewhere, it’s not like we’re going to be able to trade Hilee Taylor for Peyton Manning. Manning has had as good a start as any, as evidenced, why some would refuse to allow him the opportunity is so far beyond me, I couldn’t understand it if it were written out plain as day in different color crayons across my entire wall.
The guy deserves, has proven to us, has demanded we give him the opportunity to lead this franchise into the sunset to a Super Bowl victory.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
agreed
I’m also sick of people saying “Matt Moore is not the answer, we need to trade up into the 1st round and draft a QB”. How often does that work out?? Matt Moore has played great, why shouldn’t he have his chance. Plus on top of that, plenty of 1st round bust quarterbacks. Brett Favre wasn’t drafted in the first round, neither was drew brees, neither was Tom Brady, Romo was undrafted…the list goes on of qb’s who are great that weren’t high draft picks.
by SouthernPanther on Feb 4, 2010 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
CROWN MATT MOORE AS STARTER
I’m pushing for Matt Moore as starter QB, and I disagree that he would be the worst statring QB ever. Those words had to come from the likes of a Dallas Cowgirl fan. Hell, for a rookie getting his Starting games at the end of the 2nd HARDEST SCHEDUEL in the NFL, against Division Championship Teams, there’s little comparison to the starting games of veteran QB’s like Eli M., Big Ben, or Drew B.. All I can say is if the Panthers bench Delehome, Pay JP, and buy Steve Smith a little help on the other side of the feild, WE ARE SUPER BOWL BOUND. I can say that as Matt Moore is still a rookie, but He has his Last few games, off season practice, and Preseason Games to prepare himself mentally for the Season, Playoffs, and hopefully Division Championship, games. I feel that the kid has just that much potential.
He's not still a rookie, nor was he in '09
He’s now an experienced 3 year vet, going to be 26 years old.
I do agree with you, however, on the rest of what you said.
I love the enthusiasm.
One correction though, Matt Moore was not a rookie in the 09 season.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jan 31, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
Vince Young comparison
Almost puked after watching all the love heaped on Vince Young in the PB pre-game show.
Made me want to go look up just how much better he is than Matt Moore to get this adoration:
Young (first 6 starts, which has been the basis for all the comps, as that’s all Moore has yet):
2W – 4L; 4TDs, 7INTs , QB rating of 66.7 for that year, much lower for the first 6 starts.
For his career in games he’s started: 26W, 13L, 31 TDs, 37 INTs
…and this is a Pro Bowl QB?? Career QB rating of 72.3 – best of 82.8 this year.
Disgusting travesty, if you ask me.
QB comps
heyyyy ,,, anyone out there remember all the bad press ol’ Brett Favre used 2 get when HE was just starting out?? i remember he had sth like a 2:1 INT:TD ratio back in the day :-/
Matty has shown us sth that Jake was doing all along up until this season got too deep into his head — good field awareness & excellent leadership .. 2 qualities VERY hard to come by in most top-rated QBs … remember how Kerry Collins crashed & burned?? Let’s just see if ol’ Jake can pick himself up after this miserable (at times) season. Seems that ALL the gr8 1s had a shaky season smwh along the way.
Love me more Moore
I love what I have seen out of Matt Moore. He makes good decisions (he throws the ball away instead of throwing picks), he has great pocket presence (doesn’t run backwards for 10 yard sacks like delhomme would), he has great touch on his passes as well as some real zip when he needs it (take for example that rocket to Jarrett in the season finale), and he throws a great deep all. I’m very excited to see where he can take us!!!
Interesting stat I noticed..
Lets compare “Dropped Passes”. I’m going to do so without names (at first), though, only snaps….
1. 329 snaps – 13 dropped passes
2. 358 snaps – 11 dropped passes
3. 359 snaps – 02 dropped passes
4. 399 snaps – 14 dropped passes
5. 408 snaps – 21 dropped passes
Can anyone take a wild guess at which one is Matt Moore? If you guessed #3, you’re correct!
(For the record, the QB’s listed above are Shaun Hill, Kyle Boller, Matt Moore, Trent Edwards, and Kerry Collins.)
BUT, I’m sure it’s the receivers, right? Well, lets look at our other QB’s numbers, along with comparison (by snaps).
Alex Smith: 676 snaps – 19 dropped passes
Mathew Stafford: 690 snaps – 28 dropped passes
Jake Delhomme: 708 snaps – 17 dropped passes
Donovan McNabb: 818 snaps – 27 dropped passes
Chad Henne: 873 snaps – 29 dropped passes
While only Alex Smith had nearly as few dropped passes, there’s still a large margin between Moore and Delhomme, with the same receiving corps.
Receivers are dropping passes from Moore once every 179 snaps… Delhomme, on the other hand, once every 41 snaps. There is no QB in the NFL that has had fewer dropped passes while receiving at least 25% of the teams total snaps.
Tom Brady has a pass dropped every 31 snaps.
David Garrard has a pass dropped every 61 snaps.
Drew Brees has a pass dropped every 50 snaps.
Ben Roethlisberger has a pass dropped every 33 snaps.
Peyton Manning has a pass dropped every 41 snaps.
Kurt Warner has a pass dropped every 40 snaps.
Does this speak of our receivers or the QB putting the ball within their reach? I’d say both.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
very nice
very nice stats that you pulled right there man…thanks!!
by SouthernPanther on Feb 4, 2010 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
in addition
some of this should be attributed to the fact that matt moore throws a much tighter spiral than jake does. a lot of jake’s passes are duck’s.
by SouthernPanther on Feb 4, 2010 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
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