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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

Panthers Top 5 Concerns Entering the Season Opener

Little King provided the perfect set-up for my Top 5 Concerns post with his positive spin on the Panthers upcoming season. Though I agree with his analysis for the most part the Panthers are not without their issues. Last season I had the need for our offensive line to gel as the top concern and the Panthers responded with the NFL's #3 rushing offense. I'm sure its no surprise to Panther fans most of my concerns this season reside on the defensive side of the ball. Let's count them down now:

#5: Heal the Walking Wounded

Every team struggles with injuries and the Panthers have had their fill this preseason. We've now lost two defensive lineman (Maake Kemoeatu and Corvey Irvin) and a safety (Nate Salley) for the season. More importantly we need to get the less seriously injured back on the field soon. Consider this list of key starters who's status is uncertain for the season opener: LB's Jon Beason & Thomas Davis, S Charles Godfrey and RB Jonathan Stewart. WR Steve Smith has been dinged as well. Each of these guys are starters or provide key roles that are not easily replaced. Getting them healthy and functioning at a high level is obviously key to early season success. If their season start is delayed the Panthers could find themselves in an early hole for the division crown.

Star-divide

#4 - Competent Back-ups on the Offensive Line

Though the Panthers defense went 14 games without injury last season the offensive line was missing starters through a good portion of the season. Yet the Panthers running game rarely missed a beat as they plugged in experienced back-ups in most cases. That luxury is gone this season as other teams pillaged the Panthers reserves over the offseason. We instead find a number of untested players who may show promise but have yet to prove out when it counts. This is where coaches earn their keep, getting these untested players ready to step in a moments notice.

#3 - Reliable Kick Returns

There is no phase of the Panthers game that was down right ugly during the preseason then the inability of kick returners to hold onto the ball. The Panthers improved in this area in 2008 but the preseason has brought back flashbacks from 2006 & 2007. The potential re-signing of Mark Jones brings some comfort but instead I'd prefer a home run threat that can at least reliably catch the ball. It looks like rookies Mike Goodson and Captain Munnerlyn might get the call in spite of the early slippery finger syndrome. I expect HC John Fox will have them on a short leash if they get a shot. My hope is that generate enough excitement (of the good variety) and little bad stuff (which I won't mention) that it offsets the preseason concerns.

#2 - Generating a Pass Rush

The Panthers improved the pass rush last season to a respectable ninth with 37 sacks. So why do I have it as the #2 concern. Its simply; because our defensive scheme relies on it so heavily. It's obvious the Panthers are not going to blitz much or whip out any complex schemes to confuse our opponents offense. They will instead rely on the speed rushes from the edge to put pressure on the QB and help out the secondary. New DC Ron Meeks will also try to get some inside pressure on 3rd down by using three and four DE's across the defensive line to get pressure up the middle. Regardless of where the pressure comes from it had better come our we have seen how our soft zone secondary can get picked apart.

# 1 - Clogging the Middle of the Run Defense

Our need at defensive tackle has been well discussed on this site so I'm not going to go into a lot of detail. The Panthers have essentially a number of young players they will rotate in and out in hopes of clogging up the middle and forcing the plays outside where our speedy LB's can make a play. We've saw late last season what can happen when the middle guys get pushed around so hopefully the emphasis on big, strong (and fat) guys to clog the middle will at least perform marginally and not be a huge liability. My hope lies in the Panthers to perform some 'line magic' this season on defense just as they did last season on offense. Do that and the tough schedule will play out much better than expected.

So that's my Top 5 Concerns Panther fans. If you are a regular reader then not much of this will surprise you. Looking back at my similar post last season I don't think I was too far off. For those of you who think QB Jake Delhomme should be on this list I have to humbly disagree for now.

In spite of the negative tone of this post I truly am optimistic the Panthers will be in the hunt for a playoff spot come week 17. If they mitigate these Top 5 concerns then I can guarantee it.

 

On another note I know many of you are chomping at the bit to discuss the Panthers season opener against the Eagles in detail. We've got some things in the works to come out later on Wednesday with full on coverage by Thursday so keep checking back.

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Good counterpoint to LittleKing's Optimism post

You’ve nailed the areas of concern.

Call me Homer Simpson, or maybe the juices are just flowing from the 4 videos I just watched (The Stampede), but I think they’re all fixable/avoidable.

  1. and #5 are injury related, and every team can be derailed by those. #1, 2, and 3 revolve around tackling, and the preseason certainly wasn’t any indication of the defenses’ abilities. If we’re aggressive, rather than passive, good things will come our way.

by bigdavis on Sep 9, 2009 1:53 AM EDT reply actions  

I'd add on #3a...

3a. Coverage Units - The Panthers continue to struggle in this area. If Rhys Lloyd doesn’t kick it into the endzone and if Jason Baker doesn’t get enough hang-time on his deep punts, the coverage units look completely lost sometimes, missing tackles, overrunning their zones, and generally expecting someone else to stop the return man rather than swarming to the ball.

Our special teams coach, Danny Crossman, is working with a lot of young, inexperienced guys this year. He lost some of his stalwarts because of promotions (e.g., Richard Marshall), injuries (e.g., Nate Salley), free agency, and decisions to hang onto ALL of our draft picks from the past two years. He better coach them up to an improved level of play over what we saw during the preseason or we could see even more runbacks like the Steelers’ Logan managed.

But that’s just my extra cent,
—Neil

by NSpicer on Sep 9, 2009 7:39 AM EDT reply actions  

Ahh...good one. I was harping on that last week as well

can’t believe I left it out

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Sep 9, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Our coverages have looked down right silly during the preseason. I also have very little faith in Danny Crossman. I’ve never thought much for him as a ST coach.

by pancanbra on Sep 9, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed...

He replaced a much better special teams coach who retired. And ever since then we’ve gone further and further downhill in that area. And that’s a shame, because special teams is the third leg of a three-prong attack. If they can win the battle of field position they help out both the defense and the offense.

by NSpicer on Sep 9, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I feel better about our DT situation now

After comparing Kemo’s numbers as a starter, to some of these new backups. I don’t think he will be that missed, and maybe we can even get more production at that spot. I’m just worried that it might take us awhile to figure out a good rotation, and we lose too many initial games

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Sep 9, 2009 8:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Numbers don't tell the whole story

Kemo was just in there to hold blocks, it remains to be seen whether the new guys can do the job as well as him. Right now it’s looking up. : )

by Flowing Willow on Sep 9, 2009 8:20 AM EDT reply actions  

One of the key elements to these new DTs...

…is that we brought them in for an immediate need. And most of them either haven’t had the opportunity to start, which hopefully makes them super-hungry to do so…and to play well at the position. Louis Leonard demonstrated some of that against the Steelers in the last preseason game. Let’s see what Harris brings to the table, as well. If these guys want to make a career in the NFL and earn a starting role, now’s the time to see how motivated they are for it.

by NSpicer on Sep 9, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Both Harris and Leonard could not have envisioned a better scenario

lets see if they take advantage

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Sep 9, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Numbers tell part if the story

The part Kemo is lacking. Holding blockers means nothing in passing plays. I think he is one of the main reasons we can’t stop the pass.

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Sep 9, 2009 12:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Every down becomes a passing down

When you can’t cover or get a consistent pass rush, right? Wasn’t that our problem the 2nd half of last year

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Sep 9, 2009 5:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Even so...

…on OBVIOUS passing downs, Kemo was rarely in there. Pretty much any 3rd and long. Unfortunately, we sucked out loud trying to prevent opponents from converting 3rd downs. I wouldn’t make that Kemo’s fault, though.

by NSpicer on Sep 9, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Would you blame Lewis? Who then?

Because QBs were way too comfortable. And I think our DEs are really good. But when a QB can step a yard up in the pocket, then the DE has to not only beat his blocker, but wrap all the way around him… Which is nearly impossible. It has to be our DTs fault.

I’m not huge on Lewis as a starter, but at least he got pressure occasionally.

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Sep 9, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would blame...

…both the secondary for their sub-par coverage and the DEs for not generating a sufficient pass-rush and giving the opposing QB too much time to pick the secondary apart.

by NSpicer on Sep 9, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

And we have a lot of trouble defensing the quick releasers

… the dink and dunk, 3-step QB’s who get it out fast are hard to put pressure on.

by bigdavis on Sep 10, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly...

That completely nullifies a pass-rushing DE no matter how fast he’s trying to come around the corner. I just wish defensive coaching staff could get our secondary to play in sync with the pass-rush better by having them do bump-and-run coverage to negate the quick slants and 3-step releases. That way, there’s nobody open for that dink-and-dunk pass yet. And by the time a WR, TE, or RB does get separation, our DEs should be hurrying his throw. I think that’s what we severely lacked last season (as well as the Baltimore preseason game this year). And I’d like to seek Meeks and Company do a better job in this area than Trgovac/Fox did last year.

by NSpicer on Sep 10, 2009 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Neil, wouldn't you think...

…if you and I can figure that out, our defensive coaches could?

by bigdavis on Sep 10, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just dont see why everyone is down on the defense

I cant believe the Panthers inability to convert on third down is not a concern. The majority of the starters played 3 quarters in that baltimore game & couldnt even convert a third down. Thats why the defense looked so bad, you cant ask them to be on the field 2/3’s of the time & expect a sack or a tackle on every play. They had 4 starters out & still managed a few sacks & a few int’s this preseason. The starters on offense need to get it together & put up some points.

"it's a bad day to have a bad day"

by D.W.G. on Sep 9, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions  

Excellent point DWG...

I thought of that but didn’t see it in the top 5 because of the emergence of Barnidge and Moore. Might be #6 though. The Panthers were not good on 3rd down last season. I’m not going to put too much on the preseason numbers though because the starters didn’t play much as a unit in the preseason. I’m thinking Barnidge and Moore present additional 3rd down targets Jake didn’t have last season. But it could be wishful thinking.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Sep 9, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm going to respectfully disagree a little bit with your point...

1) We played against one of the elite defenses in the ENTIRE league, so it’s not THAT suprising we had trouble converting 3rd downs against them.
2) Despite that, we had were moving the ball pretty effectively on 1st and 2nd down, if I recall.
3) We only lost to them 17-13. I’m a little surprised it wasn’t more lopsided given how Flacco was flinging the ball around. But we hung with them better than most people realize.

Just my three-cents,
—Neil

by NSpicer on Sep 9, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

+ 4 cents

Our offense and special teams made some ugly mistakes, but considering the competition, they were moving the ball really well. Our defense on the other hand was not handling top offense, and it was still too much for them.

If all we changed was wrapping up when tackling, and not turning the ball over… then the preseason would have looked drastically different.

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Sep 9, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Couple things: first, like Neil has said, you do have to keep in mind that we were playing one of the best (if not the best) defenses in the NFL, so it would make sense if our third down conversion rate is low. However, we have had problems with that in the past and teams are generally much more successful if they can convert on third downs. So you’re right, it is a big area of concern for us heading into the season. Although, I’d say the worst stat from that game was not the third down conversion rate, it was the passing numbers for Flacco. He lit us up in the air in that game and he’s no Peyton Manning. That is one of the reasons why I think the defense is much more suspect than our offense.

by pancanbra on Sep 9, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice 1 Jax

The DT situation if 94 and 77 can not do the job then that will put extreme pressure on our offense but assuming that we have fixed the problem with Leonard and Harris and we can put teams in 3rd and long i feel great about our pass rush and the ability to force a T.O…my biggest concern is special teams…holding onto the ball and the coverage. I hope we bring Dexter Jackson in to handle PR duties. we need some speed. but my next concern is will Jake make it through 19 to 20 games…if we lose Jake and Deangelo season is over! Barnidge is going to have to step up big. in training camp i saw alot of short dump offs to GB and hopefully jake will get comfy with that and takes the pressure off of him but every team knows he is the key and they will take cheap shots at him… see carolina vs. chicago…“country tough” if some1 takes him out we will need 28 34 and 33 to carry us.

JAKE IS THE BEST OPTION FOR CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT 2 OR THREE YEARS GET OVER IT!!! AND JULIUS PEPPERS IS THE BEST DE IN THE NFL 100% EFFORT OR NOT!!! PERIOD! WE CANT DO ANY BETTER SO SHUT THE F#@K UP

by Steve785 on Sep 9, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions  

Another thing to be concerned about...

Although I can’t see the full story because I am not a ESPN Insider, ESPN insider is reporting that J Pep may leave Carolina and go west….if anybody is an INSIDER, please go inside, look up this story and tell us what is happening…….

by jkp1516 on Sep 9, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Looked it up...

Adam Schefter is basically saying that the Panthers should trade Peppers to the Raiders for Seymour.

I added the info to the comments section in the “Panthers New Numbers” post.

by bwsmith25 on Sep 9, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Total non-story...

…it’s manufactured hype and speculation.

by NSpicer on Sep 9, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

And that’s our job.

by r3 on Sep 9, 2009 5:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Munnerlyn to return punts Sunday

This from Charles Chandler, Inside the Panthers:

“Rookie cornerback Captain Munnerlyn said he expects to be the Panthers’ punt returner in Sunday’s season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Munnerlyn said he was told before practice that he’ll the role and that he got some repetitions catching punts.

The Panthers wanted to sign free agent Mark Jones, who filled the role last season, but he failed his physical exam. Jones likely will be signed after his hamstring injury recovers."

by bigdavis on Sep 9, 2009 4:12 PM EDT reply actions  

That means...

…he’ll likely contribute as a gunner on special teams coverage units, too.

by NSpicer on Sep 9, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Munnerlyn made some nice tackles too

I am excited to see him back there. I hope he holds on to the ball, because I think he can do some damage. Thanks for the info BigDavis!

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Sep 9, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even if we don’t eventually resign Jones, I would hope the Panthers at least keep up the appearance of attempting such. Just a little encouragement for others to step up and prove rather Jones is truly needed or not as the season progresses.

by D-Ranged1 on Sep 9, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I think the other players know...

…if they screw up…and if Mark Jones heals up his hamstring…they won’t hesitate to bring him back anytime after Week 1 when they don’t have to guarantee his salary. That should suffice as motivation.

by NSpicer on Sep 9, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

If they turn the ball over around the 20

Then we will lose this game.

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Sep 9, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let's think more positively.

Munnerlyn has a better chance, IMO, of taking it to the house, if he ever sees the kind of holes that Jones was run down on last year. Jones couldn’t outrun the last man, even with a head start.

by bigdavis on Sep 10, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

How about a reciever to help stretch the field. Moose is dependable but he’s not fast. The rookie Moore may come through, but right now Bobby Wade is available.

by darron on Sep 10, 2009 4:11 PM EDT reply actions  

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