A realistic analysis of what our QB position could be.
People in general are very quick to judge their team’s quarterback. When a season goes badly they become target 1-A. In this way, we Panther fans are like any others in the NFL. Prior to Jake Delhomme’s arrival in Charlotte we had never been to a Superbowl, and had not seen a level of success in years. All it took was that fateful day in September and one pass to Ricky Prohl and Jake was cemented as our starter. The honeymoon ended after the Superbowl season and the critics and supporters have drawn a proverbial chalk line down the bed and we all lie on either side of it.
I write this not to admonish the Jake supporters, or chide those who dislike him. I was always taught that if you’re going to criticize someone, or something you should also volunteer an alternative. From the side of the ‘replace Jake’ crew I see a lot of posts about how we should get rid of him, but no offerings on what or who we should have gotten as a replacement. I am looking into this now, season by season since Jake’s arrival in Charlotte to see what options were out there, who we passed on and how they compare to Delhomme.
For the benchmark, here are Delhomme’s career averages as a starter.
2,873 yds, 19 TD/11.8 INT (1.61 ratio), 89.18 RTG
2003-04 Offseason- Unlikely we would have looked for a QB after the Superbowl Season, but who was out there?
DRAFT: Who did we miss out on in this draft? After the ‘big 3’ of Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger the next highest rated QB was Matt Schaub taken in the 3rd round and he is the only remaining QB in the league from this draft. So, should we have looked into the future and taken Schaub?
Matt Schaub career averages as a starter.
2,642 yds, 12 TD/ 9.5 INT (1.26 ratio), 89.9 RTG
From these numbers we can see that Jake is a superior starter statistically, furthermore enhanced by Schaub’s propensity to injury the last 2 years.
FA: No starting caliber QBs available.
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2004-05 Offseason- Jake had the best season of his career and was named to the probowl. Unlikely we would have looked for a QB, but who did we pass on?
DRAFT: We passed on Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton
Jason Campbell career averages as a starter
2,972 yds, 12.5 TD/ 8.5 INT (1.47 ratio), 80.95 RTG
Kyle Orton
2,420 yds, 13.5 TD/12.5 INT (1.08 ratio), 69.65 RTG
Jake is statistically superior to both available QBs.
FA: Kurt Warner was the only available QB of note. He came off a horrible season with the Giants and there was no predictor to indicate that he would return to form.
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2005-06 Offseason- This is around the time we could be looking for a QB of the future. So, who did we pass on?
DRAFT: Passed on Kellen Clemmens, Tavaris Jackson
No statistical analysis needed, both are significantly statistically inferior to Delhomme.
FA: Drew Brees, John Kitna, Jeff Garcia
Yes, we didn’t pursue Drew Brees. He was the no.1 available QB in the FA, but the cap simply didn’t allow us to make a move for him. Especially after extensions to Delhomme and Steve Smith.
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2006-07 Offseason- Again, this is around the time we would be looking for a QB.
DRAFT: Passed on Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, Trent Edwards, Troy Smith.
Realistically, the only comparison can be made with Trent Edwards, the other 3 have not been a full season starter.
Trent Edwards career averages as a starter
2,164 yds, 9 TD/9 INT (1 ratio), 77.9 RTG
FA: No significant starting talent.
2007-08 Offseason: This would have been the prime time to get a starting QB. Jake was injured, we were picking high… so, who did we pass on?
DRAFT: Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
For all of ‘Flacco-mania’ his stats are as follows
2,971 yds, 14 TD/ 12 INT (1.16 ratio), 80.3 RTG
I know it’s not really fair because he’s only had 1 full season. But, was it worth us not having Jonathan Stewart or Jeff Otah to take Flacco? You decide.
FA: Rex Grossman, Daunte Culpepper
No statistical analysis needed.
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2008-09 Offseason- Again, we would be looking at a QB here. So, who did we pass on?
DRAFT: Stephen McGee, Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis, Tom Brandstater
No analysis needed, no data. I personally don’t think any of these QBs could be better than Jake.
FA: Matt Cassell, Kyle Boller, Michael Vick
Cassell was had on the cheap, however, who knows how much of it was a ‘special discount’ for Scott Pioli. Did he call in an old favor? Cassell had an amazing season as a starter, but who knows what he will do in KC. As for Vick, it remains to be seen if he can play QB, but prior to his sentence here were his stats
Michael Vick career averages as a starter
2,533 YDS, 16.25 TD/ 11.5 INT (1.41 ratio) 77.27 RTG
Inferior to Jake in every category
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Final Analysis: To the people who want Jake gone: Who do you think we should have gotten? Realistically year to year there has not been significant talent via the draft or FA to secure a QB more capable than Jake. Could Flacco be the answer? Will Schaub, Quinn or Edwards become pro-bowlers? It’s too early to tell. Analysis of the ’08 draft was that we were high on Matt Ryan and if he slid past 3 we were going to make a move, but Atlanta snatched him up.
Have I missed something? Some amazing NFL QB that has been missed? Please comment. What I do know is that even with only a second rounder next season it is an insanely deep draft for QBs and there aren’t a lot of teams left who would realistically spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on one. This is a very good thing for our future potential.
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Tim Tebow is coming to the NFL next draft
He would be great, but I think we are without a 1st rounder next draft, so it might be costly.
I don’t think we’ve missed any opportunities in recent years, but Jake is not a long-term soultion at QB.
I do not think Tebow will be a 1st round QB.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Aug 17, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Me neither.
But I don’t think he’s an NFL QB at all. His mechanics are awful, and he doesn’t really throw pro routes, either.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Aug 17, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
They should’ve developed the QB’s they drafted in Leflors & Basanez. Neither one was given much of an opportunity. Also, they should not have given up on Moore so easily just because he looked bad in preseason games & then broke his leg despite him coming in as a rookie leading the team to 2-1 in the regular season(shouldve been 3-0 but the cowgirls paid the refs in that game). Vick brings more to the table than his numbers suggest, they dont account for mobility in the pocket & ability to make plays on your own so I dont agree with your inferior to Jake comment. Cassell is young & talented & they shouldve traded Peppers for him. Also, if they were better at managing finances, I wouldve moved up somehow & got Matt Ryan. All three of those on top of Moore would be better than Delhomme. Considering Jake has one of the best olines, best receiver, & best RB’s in the game, his numbers should be off the charts. Last, Beuerlein was the best QB this franchise has ever had. If he had this team that Jake had, they wouldve gotten to the superbowl.
Vick career win % (with Falcons): 0.567
Delhomme career win % (with Panthers): 0.620
Delhomme is more of a winner as well as superior statistically, so, what exactly does Vick ‘bring to the table’ to make him a better QB?
Basanez just had a horrific outing this preseason, I believe he threw 2 or 3 ints. I liked LeFors and he was worked out by other teams, his game didn’t translate which is why he isn’t in the league any more.
Yes, Steve Beuerlein was statistically superior to Delhomme, but as a winner… not so much. Anyone who watches Panther’s games on a regular basis notices that there’s a different air of confidence when Jake is on the field. Even if he doesn’t inspire confidence by fans, the players play harder for him. If you look at every position on the field they play better when Jake is out there even when backup/replacement quarterbacks put up similar game numbers.
by James Dator on Aug 17, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't mean to double post...
Furthermore, it was not an option to trade Peppers for Cassell, in order to trade him he needed to sign his franchise tender which wasn’t going to happen. The Cassell trade happened quickly, before most of the Peppers drama even started.
There was no way we were going to get into the top 3 to get Ryan… hindsight is 20/20, but would you have really liked to have seen the Panthers make a ‘Ricky Williams’ trade to get him? I sure wouldn’t have liked to see us lose our 2008 1st rounder, 2009 1st rounder, 2008 2nd rounder… because that’s what it would have took to move from #13 to #1 or #2. Managing finances had nothing to do with not trading for Ryan… it had everything to do with gambling the team’s entire future on a QB who may or may not be great.
Even now, after knowing that Ryan is going to be great I would still rather Stewart and Otah over Matt Ryan. A future feature back and a 10 year starter at RT is worth that much.
by James Dator on Aug 17, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
James you hit the key point. Jake is a WINNER
Look, Arizona game aside, Jake steps up in big games and in the 4th quarter. He morphs into “Super Jake” when the game is on the line. He’s proven it time and again.
Honestly, I hate how he throws off his back foot and his high throws make me crazy. He holds the ball loose and gets it batted out into fumbles. But when it’s time to win, the guy comes out like General Patton on fire. So he motivates 10 other guys to put up their best. It’s like having an extra 25% from the 10 other guys. He doesn’t date models (Brady/Romo), have poor social skills (Eli), ride motorcycles without helmets(Big Ben), taunt opposing fans (Rivers), blame poor protection(Peyton) or get outrageous statistics during 8-and-8 seasons (Brees). He just WINS GAMES. Arizona of course being the exception.
But – he always holds himself accountable first. ALWAYS. More than a good quarterback, Jake is a MAN. He doesn’t whine or pout (McNabb, Brady Quinn, Leinhart, Cutler), he just looks you straight in the eye, and says “It was me. I let you down.” And he hasn’t had to say that often at all.
I’ll take Jake all day long. Goodness knows, he can be frustrating at times, but we’re damn lucky to have him.
by Barbados on Aug 17, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+ a million
My first argument against socialized healthcare? Yunel Escobar's grill.
by MichaelProcton on Aug 17, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
"Should have developed them?"
LeFors was given every opportunity. He never showed well in the preseason or the limited opportunities he got in the regular season. Basanez, too, was kept around for years, but was never going to even be a solid #2, much less a starter. Moore was not ready as of last year. Stop pointing to a 2-1 record when the two wins came against teams with nothing to play for. “Managing finances” was irrelevant when it came to getting Ryan. The cost would have come in players and draft picks for him, not money.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Aug 17, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice Post James
“Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oiy! Oiy! Oiy! I’m spelling Oiy wrong I bet.
Ryan is the only guy I wished we could have had the past three drafts (and I thought that before his rookie season).
I saw Basanez for about a series in the Bears preseason game, and he threw and INT!
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
hahahahaha
It can be “Oy”, “Oi”, or “Oiy” so you’re covered!
Yeah, I would have loved Ryan too, but immediately after that draft, before Ryan took a snap we were linked to liking him.
That gives me alot of confidence in our scouting staff and their ability to evaluate QB talent!
Scarily enough...
Basanez is in competition with an almost equally worthless QB (Caleb Hanie) for the Bears’ primary backup job.
My first argument against socialized healthcare? Yunel Escobar's grill.
by MichaelProcton on Aug 17, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Basanez
Didn’t watch a lot of the game, but what I saw he didn’t look very good. Definitely not worried about losing a potential star there.
Jakes Never Been The Problem
Jake is and will always be the underrated QB that everybody wants to get rid of when things go bad. What options does he have when Smitty is triple covered down the field? Throw to Smitty anyway! Since the superbowl we havent had another reciever step up to give him anymore options other than handing the ball off or squeeze it into rediculous coverage. We all know that he isnt the most mobile of QBs so until we get a few good WRs to compliment Smitty and the running game what options does he have?
Hopefully we'll know tonight...
if Jarrett is able to step up he’s a mighty big target when things go South.
He was certainly ok in the preseason last year (13-139 in three games.)
I hope he can do it again and figure out how to translate it to the regular season.
My first argument against socialized healthcare? Yunel Escobar's grill.
by MichaelProcton on Aug 17, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
All Jake does is win games
I don’t think Buddy Ryan would be happy with him.
If Jake could post the same numbers in the first three quarters as he does in the fourth, he would be a perennial all-pro. As it is, he’s a lousy quarterback until it counts, then he becomes one of the leagues best.
And after all the wins are forgotten, or attributed to Williams or Smitty, the haters just focus on the lousy first quarter Jake had and forget the last drive of the game that won it…
"Lousy until it counts?"
Please. Take a look at his career splits:
1st Quarter-89.7 rating, 25:15 (1.67) TD:INT
2nd-86.4, 29:18 (1.61)
3rd-78.9, 25:20 (1.25)
4th-87.8, 36:21 (1.71)
I understand you’re on his side, but tell me how a guy whose best quarter in his career has been the first is “lousy until it counts.”
My first argument against socialized healthcare? Yunel Escobar's grill.
by MichaelProcton on Aug 17, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and half-by-half:
1st half-87.7 (1.64)
2nd-82.7 (1.42)
Beyond time, though, look at the game situations. He’s good when he needs to be:
Ahead-80.8, 1.25
Tied-87.0, 1.53
Behind-87.4, 1.61
Perhaps there’s some criticism that he should be able to better protect the ball and close out the game, but that’s the running game’s job.
In another “good when it counts” stat, look at his numbers on fourth down: 15-25, 177 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 121.2 rating
My first argument against socialized healthcare? Yunel Escobar's grill.
by MichaelProcton on Aug 17, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you aware that we're on the same side?
You’re bolstering my argument, not disagreeing with me.
Look, Jake has average numbers. But when it counts, he’s great. If he’s great when it counts, in order to be average then he HAS to be a little below average to balance out the greatness late ,right? :)
I went by the stats at nfl.com
Look at his game splits from last year, by quarter.
He’s mediocre the entire game, and in the fourth he’s amazing.
You can also look at them here: http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=2008&type=Passing&range=NFL&rank=110
Just so you know where I’m coming from… :)
Which is why we need a defense to keep games close
so Jake can work his magic
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
propaganda
First of all, the original analysis is wrong about Jake’s career, his career rating is 85.1, not 89.1. To act like you don’t know what else Vick brings to the table is a joke. Everyone knows he brings speed and a ridiculously strong arm. That doesn’t nevessarily make him a better QB, especially after 2 years out of football, but don’t act like he’s such a loser on the field. He’s not. To say it is not the QBs job to protect the ball and close out the game is wrong. The QB runs the offense, so if it needs to be done, it’s his job, whether handing off or throwing screens and quick slants.
I think it’s a safe bet to say Jake is our best option for this year, and unless some rookie proves to be an unstoppable force, he’ll probably be our starter next year as well. If we draft a Bradford or Tebow, they’ll spend most of the year learning from Jake. The point is that when we need Jake to win the game for us, sometimes he comes through, but most recently he let us down. I think he’ll be better this year because he’s a year further removed from his surgery and I think he has this burning passion to make everyone forget his last game. He’ll do well, and we’ll still need to draft a QB of the future.
I, of course, think we’re going to win it all with Jake at the helm and maybe Beason or D-Will or Smitty being the MVP. That’s even if Favre signs with the Vikes in two weeks and Vick is named the starter by week 10 over McNababy.
First off, I think you should read closer before calling something 'propaganda'
Any fool can look up Jake’s career RTG on NFL.com, I averaged his years out as a CAROLINA PANTHER STARTER that’s where 89.1 comes from, I not counting a 60 pass season in New Orleans from 1999… that makes it propaganda?
Vick can run, okay, so he brings that to the table. He is statistically inferior as a quarterback by every measurable we have, so you can make the argument for ‘intangibles’ and ‘dangerousness’ which don’t translate into wins. I showed again that Jake is more of a winner. I didn’t say Vick was a ‘loser’ not once, but I did say he was INFERIOR in every way to Delhomme, and I will believe that until someone can show me some tanglible evidence to the contrary.
Furthermore, I never said it wasn’t the QB’s job to protect the ball… you are supremely good at putting words in my mouth.
And no, I don’t believe that ‘most recently Jake let us down’ he had one bad playoff game, a really bad game. The people who jump on Jake like to convieniently forget the other 12 wins. It wasn’t someone else passing to Rosario to win game 1.
I am more than happy to argue with you on the topic, but not when you make unfoundered accusations about me being biased, or put words in my mouth I’ll admit it gets my goat more than a little.
settle down
If you’re calling me a fool, I don’t even care because your opinion of me is irrelevant. You don’t know me and I don’t know you. I didn’t put words in your mouth, and if you think I did, and your feelings I hurt, I’m not too concerned. You cannot just tally up the rating for a coupel ofyears and determine the QB rating over that span by doing an average. He didn’t throw the same number of passes every year. If he has a rating of 111 when he throws 86 passes and 83 when he throws over 430 passes, you cannot average those out to a rating of 97 over two years. That is propaganda. Considering his QB rating for an entire season in Carolina was never over 88.1, how did you come up with 89.1. Maybe you gave the same weight to the 111 rating as you did the 82 and 84.7 ratings. I’m assuming you know the problem with that considering you’re smart enough to use the word fool in your post.
In the previous post, MP said it’s not the QB’s job to protect the ball and close the game. I never said you said it, nor did I put words in your mouth at any other time. MP usually says a lot of good things, though, so since you didn’t read his post, maybe you should.
I said Jake most recently let us down in reference to the playoff game. The last time he played a meaningful game, he let us down. He’ll even tell you that. That’s a fact. That does not mean he sucks or he should be cut. I even agree with you that he is our best option for now, and probably the next couple years. I’m really not sure why you’re so upset. And if we did have a full up argument, what would we argue about? I believe with Jake, we’ll win it all. I say that every year, and I mean it. I also said Jake is a better option than Vick, but that probably didn’t get your goat, I guess.
Some things aren't worth dignifying with an answer...
So, all I’ll say is more work was put in that chalking up meaningless career statistics. I wasn’t calling you a fool, I was saying it would be foolish to take into consideration years in New Orleans as a backup to formulate a correct analysis of Jake Delhomme as the Carolina Panthers starting QB.
You started the strong language, not me. There are far better ways to communicate your opinions and debating mine without being snarky.
by James Dator on Aug 18, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
alright
I just wanna know how you came up with 89.1. Besides all that, I’m sure we agree about many other points when it comes to Jake. Like every great QB, he needs a great WR and RB to win…all the greats who won superbowls had them. He also needs the defense to find a way, regardless of field position, to not give up 34 points. I think this year we have it all, and we’re gonna win it all.
Jake's average QB rating as a starting QB with the Carolina Panthers...
80.6, 87.3, 88.1, 82.6, 111.8, 84.7 / 6= 89.18
Regardless of whether you value the 111.8 or not it is of no consequence, it was still 3 official starts in 3 official NFL games, with 86 attempted passes, which he was rated 111.8 (the best of his career before the injury). The beauty of looking at QB rating is you can discount other stats that can be stunted through loss of game time.
When statistically analyzing Delhomme it is fair to include this season, I included the 2007 season in evaluating his yards per season, TDs, INTs and ratio also. So, when all results are averaged it comes out in the wash.
Football is the ultimate team game, though a QB is an important cog in the offense it is definately not a substitute for a good defense, no one player is. All this post was intended to do was evaluate the QB position of the Carolina Panthers and compare our incumbent starter to other potential QBs who were either passed on via the draft, or not pursued in free agency. The results speak for themselves, with the exception of pursuing Drew Brees in 2005-06 and not drafting Joe Flacco (potentially) there is no winning QB who we passed on who has put up better numbers and more wins than Jake Delhomme.
I think we should be fortified by this as Panther fans. It shows that the front office can correctly evaluate talent and knows how to prioritize positions. Despite all this, I definately think the 2010 draft is the time to strike and get our QB of the future. We have a very real chance of getting a Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy even in the second round.
Statistically speaking...(One of my forte's)
It’s not correct to give equal weight to a 3 game season vs a 16 game season. You need to average the rating from each individual game. I would say though that the difference between an 86 and an 89 is fairly small.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
True
If I was being completely accurate I would have averaged it out per game, for every game as a starter, but couldn’t handle doing that. I just did a rough average for all players and they were all subjected to the same control.
Looking back at the numbers none of the tolerances is enough to throw off the final verdicts drawn.
by James Dator on Aug 19, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Here you go
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DelhJa00.htm
Over his time in Carolina, Jake has an overall rating of 85.7.
very average I would say
but the point you made about 4th qtr average is well made. I also noticed on that list that Matt ‘Matty Ice’ Ryan was at the bottom of the 4th qtr rating list. Just a rookie I realize but surprising still to me
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Chew on this too...
Matty Ice had ONE good drive his senior year at BC—against a disappointing VT team. He completed under 60% of his passes and threw 19 interceptions against 31 TDs. Those numbers don’t project greatness at the NFL level.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/players/5446/
Sure, he’s a great student of the game and works hard and takes a good picture, but Atlanta kept the playbook simple for him and Turner carried that team. If he goes down and Ryan needs to carry the team, I don’t expect it to be pretty.
Then again, I got hung up on Brees’ winning percentage before he signed with New Orleans, and look how THAT turned out. Oh, wait…
wins and losses
QB is the only position we use wins and losses to describe. Is Eli Manning really any better at football since winning the Superbowl? Isn’t his QB rating lower than Jake’s? In that game, he didn’t make any mistakes (well he probably did, I just don’t remember them right now), but he didn’t win it all by himself. Yet we say he has won a Superbowl. So I ask you guys, should wins and losses figure into QB rating? If they did, Jake’s rating would be higher, and many other great garbage-time passers would be rated lower.
by usana_gaines on Aug 21, 2009 4:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think you can add in W/L
I think it balances itself out. There are plenty of times a QB can play like garbage but get bailed out by their defense and/or running game. Conversely, a QB can bring a team back when other phases of the game are failing.
The only thing that I believe should be changed is INTs. There should be guidelines for how and when an INT can be attributed to a WR rather than the QB. I know it’s subjective, but alot of the time so are tackles in a gang tackle and/or sacks in this regard. I think an ‘Interception directly caused’ stat should be tracked for WRs and removed from the QBs column (unless the ball was clearly poorly thrown).
my memory
this reminds me of when plaxico “i shot myself in the leg, and i’m going to jail” burress gave up on a play and watched the DB run by him and get the interception. I don’t like eli manning, but that was not his fault.
your point could also be made about drops. i’m no vick lover, but his receivers dropped a lot of passes in ATL.
by usana_gaines on Aug 21, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
QB has a lot of impact on wins and losses
He’s the only offensive player that the play goes through on every down. He’s responsible for a ton of what happens on the field, including managing the clock, pointing out the defense so blocking schemes can adjust, and calling audibles in reaction to what the defense is doing. Quarterback is the team’s most important offensive position.
Brees is great, but has he ever been effective at slowing down a game and using the clock in a manner where if he scores at the end the other team doesn’t have time to strike back? Nope, but I’ve seen Jake do it a ton. That’s why Brees has one fourth quarter comeback where Jake has 19 or 20.
Judging a QB in football is like judging a pitcher in baseball. You pay attention to stats and they will give you a good idea of how effective they are and their physical skills, but in the end it’s all about getting the win.
I agree the QB has alot of impact
I’m definitely not diminishing the position on the field. The being said, some people argue that Eli Manning single handedly won the Superbowl when in reality he only made one great play the entire game (it just happened to be at the right time) and that seems ludicrous to me.
Conversely, a QB can throw a pick 6 that costs his team the game, but if that is attributed to a WR running an incorrect route, or bobbling the ball then I can’t see that loss being the fault of the QB. I just think there are too many variables to attribute wins and losses to one player.
Agreed, but...
I still think W/L is the best way to judge a QB, just like it’s the best way to judge a pitcher. Maybe it would be best to calculate QB rating like normal, then multiply it by their win/loss percentage. That would give you a better idea of who the best QBs really are.
Do this and you get some interesting numbers:
Rating Win/Loss % Modified Rating
Brady 92.9 78.4% 72.8
Romo 94.7 69.2% 65.6
Roethlisberger 89.4 71.8% 64.2
Rivers 92.9 68.8% 63.9
Peyton Manning 94.7 66.5% 63.0
Ryan 87.7 68.8% 60.3
McNabb 85.9 64.6% 55.5
Flacco 80.3 68.8% 55.2
Favre 85.4 62.8% 53.7
Warner 93.8 56.4% 52.9
Delhomme 85.1 61.7% 52.5
Hasselbeck 84.5 56.3% 47.6
Brees 89.4 51.9% 46.4
Eli Manning 76.1 59.2% 45.0
Palmer 88.9 49.2% 43.8
Vick 75.7 57.6% 43.6
Greene 86 49.6% 42.6
Leftwich 80.3 52.2% 41.9
Cutler 87.1 45.9% 40.0
Hope that formats right…
I think this gives a decent idea of which active QBs really contribute the most to their team.
Interesting
But look at Drew Brees…. using this method he’s penalized because his team have a defense made out of wet paper. He can throw for 5,000 yards and the offense can put up 30 pts a game, but their defense is so bad he’s penalized for it.
Same can be said for Cutler.
by James Dator on Aug 21, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
And that's the point
If a quarterback can produce those kinds of numbers but can’t manage a game well enough to win, then they shouldn’t be praised as if they’re the second coming of Unitas.
Look at Denver’s offense. Their stats look GOOD, but their winning percentage? Not so much…
You can get gaudy stats and not get the job done. Brees is the king of that.
Sorry, I disagree with you.
The offenses first duty is to score points. The QBs first duty is to score touchdowns, after that it is managing the game. You are putting far too much of the team’s success of the QB.
It’s not the QBs fault that the coaching staff are calling more pass plays than runs which grind the clock down. Should a WR fall to the ground after 10 yards to run the clock rather than running it into the end zone?
I could argue all day long that Brees does everything he can on his side of the ball to keep the Saints compeditive. If he wasn’t putting up those numbers you might as well half their win total.
I just can’t comprehend a system that places more worth on Joe Flacco than on Kurt Warner or Drew Brees.
by James Dator on Aug 21, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm in the middle
you guys are both right, in my opinion, and i think the overall value of the QB rests with the coach. the original post put up flacco’s stats and you saw how few times he threw the ball. the ravens won it all with dilfer, got a better QB in Grbac, or so they thought, and decided they could rely on his arm more. that change in formula cost them. fox knows jake’s strengths and weaknesses and uses them to get wins. jake’s value to the team is as much as any other qb’s, but it doesn’t show in his 85 rating. that’s okay as long as we’re winning.
by usana_gaines on Aug 21, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
good points
but at the same time, look at where jake is compared to some QBs who have better stats and a worse winning percentage. i mean, most of these guys had better stats on teams that were not 12-4. and remember our defense was giving up about 30 points a game the last half of the season. you know the defense i’m talking about, the one where one guy is worth $16.7 million. jake had to lead our team to overcome opponents’ scoring sprees. of course smitty and d-will made it easier, but if you’re defending jake, this gets the point across.
by usana_gaines on Aug 21, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
W&L certainly don't tell the whole story about a QB's value, tho.
Archie Manning had the absolute WORST W/L % of any NFL QB, but he certainly wasn’t the WORST QB.
Any W/L %‘s in a team sport (and this includes baseball, where I’d lean more on ERA than W/L to rate a pitcher) are just that — a team stat, and no individual on that team can claim ownership of those wins by himself.
To me, the number of times a QB can engineer (produce) a turnaround win in the 4th qtr or OT, when his influence on the outcome is magnified (clock management, judgment under stress, pressure in all its guises) — these are the true determinant of whether your QB is a “winner” or not.
I’d like to see a stat list of active QB’s from that perspective. Bet Jake is high up the list, on an absolute basis, and as a % of games he’s played in.
comebacks
comebacks don’t happen as often for QBs who play well the entire game. how well known is peyton manning for 4th quarter comebacks? we know how good he is, but he plays well all game, and usually by the 4th quarter, he doesn’t need to engineer a comeback.
however, sometimes QBs can play well all game and still need to give it a little more in the 4th quarter to make up for the other aspects of the team…like the defense or special teams giving up TDs. Think of the Cardinals loss to the Bears that set up Dennis Green’s famous after-game speech…they gave up two punt returns for TDs in the 4th quarter and James had the fewest yards rushing ever for a 30+ carry game. Most QBs couldn’t overcome that.
by usana_gaines on Aug 22, 2009 5:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought Ryan killed GT his senior year
He made some great throws under heavy pressure from the Jon Tenuta ‘blitz every down’ defense we ran then.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
a website
There is a website where you can enter QB stats and come up with the real QB rating. http://www.mcmillenandwife.com/qb_rating_calculator.html. I entered in Jake’s stats and his QB rating for his time as a starter in Carolina is 84.33. You cannot count his 111 rating the same as his other seasons when he only played in less than 3 full games.
Besides the nit-picking I’ve done over numbers, though, I do agree with everything else you just said. My problem with his numbers, though, is they do not accurately display his leadership. Everyone plays harder when he plays, and he demonstrates mental toughness to these guys. When the other guys decide they’ve got his back no matter what, it’s not because they visited some website and came up with his overall QB rating. they don’t care about all that. they wanna win, and they know, as you pointed out, that jake wins. as for vick…i remember a game in green bay when it was freezing and vick looked like he didn’t wanna play, it was too cold. you’ve never seen a game where jake was not in the mood to win.
Jake's a winner
In the end, that’s the only stat that matters.
I don’t want this next statement to be taken out of context, because I realize it was only preseason game 1, but that’s what I like to see from Cantwell… he had moxie, like Jake. He wasn’t afraid to have the ball in his hands on a closing drive. The kid impressed me; after all, Jake and Kurt Warner were undrafted too… you just never know.
Cantwell did impress me in that final drive
But before that, even the throws he did make were luck. He has at least three years, maybe less if Testaverde gives him an epiphany.
by Flowing Willow on Aug 19, 2009 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the 4th qtr rating reflects the point we are trying to make
Jake knows how to win games in the 4th quarter
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
With an amazing draft class at QB, do we take one?
I say yes. Jake is our QB. I don’t see any of our backups as the face of our franchise. I want to see with the big board being released today by Mel Kiper Jr. do we got after a QB? I do admit that it is all up to how this season goes but I think with a great field of talent coming in, do we go for one. Also if someone has insider may they post the board. I saw the top 10 on SportCenter but was interested in the whole thing. Link below
Yes, this is finally the year
We’ve taken QBs before, but I think this is the year we actually get one in the draft. We’ll probably spend a first day pick on him, and then Cantwell or Moore will beat him out to take Jake’s place in 2011….
I think they are changing the draft next year.
I believe that there will actually be 3 days, thursday (1st round), friday and saturday. Can anyone concur?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Aug 20, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
the draft
here is the link to gil brandt’s top ten QBs for next year’s draft. i completely agree with the number one guy, but he left out anyone who would still have eligibility left after the season like bradford.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d810bda9e&template=without-video-with-comments&confirm=true
From that list Zac Robinson intrigues me
as a guy who might be available in the 2nd. I like the comment about accuracy, his size and the fact he plays for OK St, a school that plays decent competition.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
You have no idea...
…just how much I love this post. :)
There’s nothing quite like pinning down a Jake Hater and making him give you alternatives, and then throwing this information in their face when they start stuttering.
This whole piece belongs in some sort of CSR hall of fame.
And a player you forgot
The Panthers went out and got David Carr because at the time he looked like he could be a great sub and possibly a future starter. At the time, he looked better than Garcia and Kitna had the year before.
So it’s not like they haven’t tried.
+1
Remember the plan for Carr was to have him sit and watch for a season or two so he could break some of the bad habits he developed behind a porous Texan OL. When Jake went down with the elbow, that plan went ou the window.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Aug 24, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

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