My first thought though was how the premise of the post flies in the face of everyone on this site giving Jake crap for focusing on Smith too much. Don’t get me wrong I think your premise is on target but it will be hard to hit that 150 number in a run-focused offense. Maybe a range of 8 touches a game might be more realistic.

As far as specific plays it seemed to me the Panthers shied away from the WR screen and went with the simpler ‘Smoke’ play, where Jake just quickly zings it to Smith in the flat and Moose, who was in motion coming towards Smith, goes for the block on the CB. We can usually get at least 5 yards on that one. It could be our line is too slow to get out in the flat for the screens as we are going for size over speed on the OL.

I would like to see more more run plays for Smith but those might actually go to Goodson in 2009.

i don’t think 150 touches is realistic in an offense where you have 2 stud running backs. There are simple to many mouths to feed. I would bet that Steve Smith got about 150 looks last year, and probably will this year, but touches? I just dont see it.

I DO agree however that we need to get more use out of him as a distraction and in situations where we need safe yardage. With his speed and reliable route running he is dangerous given a hitch or quick slant pattern for an easy 5+ yards. Also, those WR drags that put him on a LB, those are ideal as well. He shouldn’t just be the deep threat. A lot of this will depend on Jarrett’s development as well. If he can prove to be a reliable possession guy this year and into the future he is more likely to fill some of these safe passing roles.

Smith saw the majority of his touches in the passing game (54%) came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Here are the splits:
Ball Caught: Rec Yds TD Long
Behind LOS 11 82 1 15
1-10 yds. from LOS 31 303 0 22
11-20 yds. from LOS 23 527 3 65
21-30 yds. from LOS 4 122 0 35
31-40 yds. from LOS 6 231 2 41
41+ yds. from LOS 3 156 0 54
So even when they did get him the ball on quick passes in the way you’re talking about, it rarely turned into anything special (no reception longer than 22 yards when caught closer than 11 yards down the field.)

Next, let’s analyze the number of targets Smith got and his percentage of the total targets for the team:
Smith finished the year with 129 total targets, a number that put him 15th in the NFL. However, when his 9.21 targets per game are matched up with the rest of the league, he ranks 9th behind Brandon Marshall (12.13), Andre Johnson (10.63), Anquan Boldin (10.50), Dwayne Bowe (9.81), Larry Fitzgerald (9.63), Calvin Johnson (9.44), Wes Welker (9.38), Roddy White (9.31). However, there are clear differences between Smith and these other players. In the case of Bowe, Johnson, and White, their teams’ #2 options was inferior to Muhammad, so there was more of a reason to force the ball to these players. In addition the Panthers had the fewest pass attempts in the NFL last year, not only because of their run-oriented attack, but also because they were winning most of the time.
Smith received 31.2% of the Panthers’ passing targets. This number is favorable in comparison to all but one of these players, listed in descending order of their own percentages:
White-34.3%
A. Johnson-30.6%
C. Johnson-29.7%
Marshall-29.4%
Bowe-29.0%
Welker-28.1%
Fitzgerald-24.4%
Boldin-20.0%

Again, with White the only legitimate threat in the Falcons’ passing attack, Matt Ryan had to force the ball to him, but he only received a target rate of about 9.9% higher than Smith.

Now, as to your rushing plan to get the ball to Smitty, let’s examine the precedent: you suggest Smith should get at least 30 carries a year, but the only player to even approach that mark in recent memory was Josh Cribbs (29 last year while being used as the Browns’ Wildcat QB, a package the Panthers did not use at all last year.) No other wideout has even eclipsed the 20-carry mark since the 2000 season, and even Cribbs is not really a comparable player. Not only were those carries last year more catches than he has in a four-year career, but as a former college QB, he can take a direct snap or a handoff on an end-around and have options. If Smith gets the ball in the backfield, his only option is basically to run. And is a situation where the entire defense has a shot at our best player—who happens to be very undersized (even if he’s incredibly strong for his size)—a situation we really want to put him in regularly? Further, history shows that the element of surprise allows him to be more successful: Smith has a 6.5 YPC average for his career, but when he’s had more than 8 carries in a season (3 times), that number goes down to 6.0, as opposed to 7.4 when he’s had fewer than that. His worst YPC season with multiple carries was also the season where he had the most carries (3.8 YPC on 11 carries in ’03.)

In addition, there are other concerns about using Smith as a runner regularly. It’s totally different to read blocks and be a threat with the ball out of the backfield against the entire defensive 11 as opposed to breaking tackles of secondary members. Sure, gimmick offenses like Florida runs work fine in college, but there’s a reason they aren’t run in the League: NFL defenses and coaches are better, and they simply wouldn’t work.

Finally, if you can produce some stats to back up the notion that Smith somehow used to see more short-yardage passes than he did last year or of late in general, I’d love to see them.

Michael,
This way of using Smith is not a common practice around the league, I understand that. I don’t look for the Panthers to emulate something someone else does. I don’t really care how many targets Andre Johnson or Wes Welker got. They are not the threat that Steve is (but Welker is not far off). You point out that “gimmick” offenses don’t work in the NFL, umm, what is the Wildcat? Teams that don’t have a legitimate QB run it, sorry Chad Pennington. Nothing is a gimmick. Football is football. Run, block, tackle.

Steve is that dynamic of a playmaker that I think he needs to touch the ball more than 5.9 times a game. The only way to ensure this is to give him the ball by hand, or via short passes. Especially while we still have Moose, as great of a downfield blocker he is. 54% of his targets were short passes? Well, I’d like to see that number more like 70%. If his YPC goes down, so be it. His yardage will not, his number of receptions will not, his TDs will not. Do you like seeing a 2nd and 9 hitch route to Brad Hoover? It’s not the worst play-call ever, but wouldn’t you prefer to see Steve get a toss-sweep from the wing? Is it that bad to innovate?

I do agree though, we do need to get the ball to Steve Smith more.

The thing about Steve is that he can turn a burned out play into a TD, and that’s a rarity we see in the league nowdays. I remember one game we were losing, and the Panthers were pretty far behind. Steve Smith got the ball, broke out of FIVE defenders that were trying to tackle him, all at once, and made a touchdown.

At the same time, you have to remember that this isn’t a west coast offense. Short, high percentage throws are alright, but Jake Delhomme is no Manning or Brady. Our running game is going to be the bread and butter of our offense, and I would prefer a longball for a TD on 2nd and 2 then to give Jake the ball for a short route and hope he doesn’t get picked off.

I’m against giving Steve Smith the ball on punt/kick returns. He has stated himself he doesn’t like those jobs, and I’d prefer for him to not get his legs broken.

I’d love for the return of the “Steve Smith” packages though. Like when he used to sneak around the O-line and take a pitch from Jake and try to run up the field.

Here’s a play I’d like. I’ll call it the “Fleaflicker fail.”

This play has to be done after the Fleaflicker has been done sometime during the game. Jake Delhomme hands the ball off to Williams like usual right? But instead of pitching it back to Jake, Steve Smith comes around and takes the pitch and runs the ball up their left side.