You may have seen this, when Gregg Easterbrook wrote it last February - but I just came across it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/090210

It should embolden us all to absolutely discount every  single thing the so-called "experts" forecast, for the coming season -- or about anything else, for that matter!

It's a long read, but what the heck, things are slow right now.  You can't believe -- 'til you've read these -- just how off base some analysts were in predicting the future.  Bottom line: nothing is certain; the obvious is the unobvious.