Peppers versus some select DE's.

by Barbados on Jul 2, 2009 4:31 PM EDT

Playing around in Excel, I took a few DE careers, then adjusted it to get the following table normalized for a 16-game season.

Here's what the scribble means:

Tackles mean total tackles, not solo. Interceptions, Forced Fumbles, Passes Deflected. Then I figured each one of those is a "Ball Hawk" - an interruption of some kind, a busted play by the DE. So I added 16-game INT's, FFum's, and PD's to get the "Ball Hawk" figure. So that:

INT+FFum+PD = Ball Hawk

I sorted highest to lowest on total tackles, because a tackle is involvement, getting to the ball. Peppers looks like middle-of the road top-tier until you add up the ball-hawk figure. Note that the taller DE's have more PD's and INT's. Freeney has a low PD figure, but is high on forced fumbles. A shorter guy will be closer to the running ball, a taller guy closer to the flying pass.

Just for fun I added a normalized 16-game Charles Johnson and Everette Brown's normalized numbers at Florida State. Enjoy.

By the way, Strahan set his 22.5-sack season record when he was 30. Peppers is 29 this year and turns 30 in January. Just data.

Per 16 Games
Careers/DE's	Gm	Tkls	Sack	Int	FFum	PD	Ball Hawk
Michael Strahan	16	67	11.1	0.32	1.9	2.9	5.1
Jason Taylor	16	62	10.9	0.63	3.6	7.8	12.0
Aaron Schobel	16	60	9.5	0.28	2.5	3.8	6.6
Jared Allen	16	60	12.1	0.21	3.4	5.9	9.5
John Abraham	16	55	12.4	0	4.6	1.8	6.4
Julius Peppers	16	53	11.0	0.62	3.9	6.4	10.9
Patrick Kearney	16	52	9.0	0.35	1.9	2.9	5.1
Simeon Rice	16	46	11.9	0.49	3.3	5.7	9.5
Javon Kearse	16	45	10.4	0.14	3.7	5.3	9.1
Dwight Freeney	16	41	12.8	0	6.4	1.8	8.2


Charles Johnson	16	33	8.0	0	1.3	9.3
E Brown-FSU	16	48	18.7

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Comments

Good stuff, man...

You’ve been a great addition in a short time.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 2, 2009 8:30 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks. The whole will he/won't he about Pep has made me a little obsessive.

Plus alot of free time this week. Wife wondering why don’t I go get some paint. Vacation, dear.

by Barbados on Jul 3, 2009 8:37 AM EDT reply actions

I like it too...

Thanks for the number-crunching and comparisons.

by NSpicer on Jul 5, 2009 10:23 AM EDT reply actions

Explain Johnson and Brown a little more

I see how Brown would get this based on 16 games? But how does Johnson wind up with 8 sacks. Wouldn’t it be more like 5? He didn’t miss a game last year… Did he?

If any of you stat gurus get bored… I would like to see some of Brown’s stats compared to some of the elite NFL DEs in College. Maybe I’ll take a stab at it

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Jul 6, 2009 10:02 PM EDT reply actions

I think you're right about Johnson.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 7, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

I divided the number of games played to one, then multiplied by 16.

I don’t believe Johnson was active every game.

by Barbados on Jul 7, 2009 9:15 PM EDT reply actions

Johnson played every game last year.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 8, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, I remember now...

I am not on the computer where I have the spreadsheet, so I’ll check it later, but I know I factored in his 2007 AND 2008 seasons. Because I did a career game summary then divided. But I have to go check the spreadsheet I pulled it from and check the exact calculation. So Johnson played 3 games in 2007 and 16 in 2008 according to Yahoo! sports where I pulled the data.

I gotta watch you guys, if I don’t lay out every formula, I’ll need to go back to molecular algebra to make sure I justify it completely. Once I pop back up the the other computer, I’ll pop the formulas on.

I’d cry like a baby to know my data had a fault. About football. On a blog. For fun. You guys are killing me! :-)

by Barbados on Jul 8, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha...

But he didn’t get a single sack in ’07. Did you just project his whole career over 16 theoretical games?

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 8, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Guilty as charged!!!!!!

I went back to my spreadsheet this morning. Because I was calculating Brown at 12 games, I mistakenly calculated Johnson at 12 games when I dragged the cell down, then up-rated him for 16 games.

So I put his real sacks x 16/12 and artificially inflated his numbers. My bad.

I am committing Hari-Kari right after this post.

by Barbados on Jul 9, 2009 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions