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A Look at some of Julius Peppers' Career Splits

Some people were interested in taking a look at Julius Peppers' career splits so we could have a look at how he does in different situations.  Between myself and Barbados, we've come up with some intriguing observations.  Take a look after the jump.

Peppers_medium

Star-divide

Overall career: 3.3 tackles/gm, .68 sacks/gm (If you want, I’ll delve into stuff like FFs and PDs, but they’re a lot more fluky than the two primary ones)

Home: 3.2 tackles/gm, .65 sacks/gm
Away: 3.5 tackles/gm, .72 sacks/gm
So maybe his (slightly) inferior performance at home is another reason he gets a hard time from the fanbase.

Day: 3.3 tackles/gm, .69 sacks/gm
Night: 3.8/.65
So perhaps he’s more active in primetime games, but he doesn’t get the same results since the opponent is more of a marquee team?

Grass: 3.4/.66
Turf: 3.3/.76
I’m surprised with his speed and athleticism that his numbers aren’t better on turf, but I suppose QBs might be aided in getting rid of the ball because of the added separation receivers can get.

Windy: 3.6/.8
Obviously, QBs might hold the ball longer if they know they have to make a perfect throw, and the tackles are probably increased because of increased runs.

Warm (61 and above): 3.4/.61
Cold (60 and below): 3.4/.80

Don’t really know how to explain this one other than the perfect throw concept like with the wind.

Games 1-8: 3.5/.58
Games 9-16: 3.1/.81
Interesting to see that his sacks go so high at the end of the season.

Best tackle month is October by far (3.6), best sack month is November (1.0!)

Intra-divisional: 3.1/.60
vs. NFC outside of division: 3.5/.78
vs. AFC: 3.4/.66
So there’s some splits that lend credence to the fact that he doesn’t come up big in the most important game. Could also be, though, that the teams he faces most often have better-developed plans to stop him.

The following stats come unedited from Barbados, aside from cleaning up a table he put together a little bit.

Per Game Averages (divided by #games played)

Top-5 Tackling
 vs Oakland 5.5
 vs Baltimore 4.5
 vs St.Louis 4.5
 vs Green Bay 4.2
 vs Arizona 4.0

Top-5 Sacks
 vs Oakland 2.5
 vs Dallas 1.8
 vs Detroit 1.8
 vs NY Jets 1.5
 vs Kansas City 1.5

Top-5 Forced Fumbles
 vs Oakland 1.0
 vs NY Jets 1.0
 vs Kansas City 1.0
 vs Arizona 0.8
 vs Detroit 0.8

No Sacks Ever Games Played
 vs Cincinnati 1
 vs Denver 1
 vs Miami 1
 vs Houston 2
 vs Philadelphia 3
 vs Chicago 2
 vs San Diego 2
 vs Seattle 2
 vs Pittsburgh 1
 vs Washington 2
 vs Indianapolis 2
 vs New England 1

Tackles/gm.

Sacks/gm.

Forced Fumbles/gm.

2008

3.4

.91

.31

2006-2008

3.0

.65

.26

Career

3.4

.67

.24

So, now that these are on the table, what do you guys think?  Are there more conclusions we can draw from this data?

The content of these posts are those of the person/idiot making the post only

0 recs  |  Comment 42 comments |

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How do I post a table or an image of a table?

Just playing around with Excel I got Peppers vs. Strahan vs. Jason Taylor and some others.

by Barbados on Jul 2, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I got it, I just don't know how to post it so it's not garbage in html.

I got Strahan, Taylor, Freeney, Schobel a bunch o’ guys against Peppers. Was fooling around with Excel and got it. I can put it in here, but html formatting makes it all crazy. Procton’s got a table above and I looked at the code and couldn’t replicate it. Table may show Pep commands the salary he wants. I should just sell it to his agent or something. :-)

by Barbados on Jul 2, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's a button so you can copy into FanPosts directly from Word, and Excel, I believe

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 2, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

MP or Barbados

great job on the post… very insightful…

Only thing I noticed is none of his top 5 averages were with division opponents. I’m assuming that has to do with the amount of games hes played against each of those teams that hurts his averages. That, or perhaps there is a pattern where Pep doesn’t perform as well against division opponents?

Would you mind posting some data in regards to his performances against division opponents?

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Jul 2, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

’————G——Tkl—-Sack—Int—-DefTD—FFum—PD
 Atl———-14—-36——6——0——1————0———6
 N.O.——-12—40——-5——1——0————4———8
 TB———13—-45—-12.5—-1——1————2———4

Sorry Mental, my HTML is not so good. But you see the stats…

by Barbados on Jul 2, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those averages are:

ATL: 2.6 tkls/gm, .43 scks/gm, .43 PD/gm.
NO: 3.3 tkls/gm, .42 scks/gm, .33 FF/gm, .67 PD/gm
TB: 3.5 tkls/gm, .96 scks/gm, .15 FF/gm, .31 PD/gm

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 2, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks a lot you 2

I appreciate that a lot – I was hoping this would stir up some more conversation than it did… Isn’t it more important that he performs better against division rivals?

I mean, those numbers against TB are pretty solid… but what about the other 2? How much do you think Atlanta being a run first team is affecting his ability to pass rush… but even so, wouldn’t you expect it to reflect itself in his tackles at least (ball awareness)?

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Jul 5, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

All I am asking for from Peppers this year is not a repeat of the “nothing is wrong with me” 2.5 sack season. This is some great data, though I have to admit I would like to see a sack for every million dollar he is making this year. That would be nice.

by bengoodfella on Jul 2, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

I don’t think a million dollars per sack is to much to ask. i’d prefer 1 sack for every $750,000 if I had my way.

by Tater596 on Jul 2, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That would be nice too. I am not going to hold my breath over anything more than $1 million per sack though.

by bengoodfella on Jul 2, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I made a separate post in Fan-posts so you could see JP compared to other DE's

It allows a little better manipulation of html so I could drop a table in.

by Barbados on Jul 2, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Start

Here’s a link to how DL compared over the ’08 season (and earlier if you want). The results may surprise you, or you may think that these stats mean nothing. Links are provided on the page if you question their methods.

Look at this:

Carolina ranked 24th overall in Adjusted Line Yards on running downs. These runs are from the perspective of the offense:

24th at runs coming off the left end of the OL, 20th at runs coming off the LT, 31st at runs coming off the G/C, 3rd at runs coming off the RT, and 16th at runs coming off the right end of the OL. When it says end, it’s basically when a run gets bounced outside.

Our adjusted sack rate (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down, and distance) was 7.4%, 5th overall.

I’m not saying the numbers are everything, nor should they indicate the success or failures of any one player, but look at where the weak points are in our run stopping.

by the bomb dot com on Jul 2, 2009 8:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Very interesting...

Although we obviously lost a lot of run support when Jenkins left.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 2, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting Point.

Sorry in advance to completely derail this thread. This post wasn’t meant to be so long, but now that it has, I’ll include a picture just to make everyone happy.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Jenkins, Kris: Panther 2001-2007.

From the same statistical model (only looking at runs off G/C):

2001: (11 GS) 10th (3.84 yds/run)
2002: 2nd (3.43 yds)
2003: 10th (3.99 yds)
2004: (4 GS) 13th (4.09 yds)
2005: (1 GS) 10th (3.93 yds)
2006: 8th (4.02 yds)
2007: 18th (4.21 yds)

and then last year:

2008: 31st (4.75 yds)

Meanwhile, the New York Jets (again, only off G/C runs):

2007: 30th (4.52 yds)
2008: 9th (3.98 yds)

Playing fast and loose with statistics (the best way), you could say that .5 yds/run we lost and the Jets gained was pure Jenkins. Opponents rushed 432 times during the 2008 season against the Panthers, so just think if Jenk played 60% of (rushing) snaps, that’s ~130 fewer rushing yards along the course of the season, 6.8% of our yearly (1,912) total.

That last paragraph was complete BS, just messin’ around, but you can see how his absence (both during injuries and after his trade) impacted the Panthers.

by the bomb dot com on Jul 2, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, it's not just losing Jenkins...

It’s replacing him with Lewis, who’s hardly a stout run defender.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 2, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

Kris Jenkins had more effect on this team than people think. Maybe if the Julius Peppers situation is nailed down with a contract extension this year we can go search for some help in Free Agency, which is one of the strengths of John Fox.

Heil Panthers!

"Once again the trowsers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn

by Revshawn on Jul 3, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ooh...

We’ve had a few hits of late, but I would never say that free agency has been a strength of the Fox/Hurney administration.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 4, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

…“making a splash in free agency” isn’t a phrase I’d ever associate with Fox and Hurney. :-D

Doesn’t mean they can’t surprise by pulling out the stops next season to go after somebody, but a lot of that will depend on whether we sign Peppers long-term or free up cap space by releasing or trading him.

by NSpicer on Jul 5, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He doesn't make a splash.

But he does make a ripple here and there, especially the little ripple needed in 02 to take this franchise to the SB.

I do agree though, he hasn’t exercised it in quite a while. Damn you Julius Peppers!

"Once again the trowsers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn

by Revshawn on Jul 7, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We did miss Jenkins last year

but agree he had to go because of the locker room stuff. The guy was not happy and it wasn’t not salvageable.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jul 7, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very interesting stuff...

It’s good to have these numbers laid out. And I’m curious to look at Barbados’ numbers comparing other elite DEs. Thanks for crunching the stats, guys!

by NSpicer on Jul 5, 2009 9:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good work on the stats...

They’re very interesting. In my opinion, the bottom line with J. Pep is that he does not show up in big games. Further, he pads his stats by collecting sacks in bunches against weak teams, as his dominance against Oakland and Detroit shows. I put together an entry on his sack totals on my blog at http://qcsportsblog.com/2009/07/08/bottom-feeder-peppers/

I realize that it’s not the most scientific analysis, but I think it tends to illustrate that he is generally a no-show against tougher opponents/big games.

by qcsportsblog on Jul 8, 2009 9:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Question

Who doesn’t dominate against Oakland and Detroit? Who doesn’t struggle vs Clady, Thomas, Jones, and all them? We all have bad days, it’s just Pep seems to have them more often.

by Flowing Willow on Jul 9, 2009 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Peppers isn't just any player.

He’s got the reputation, salary, and ego (see: the way he tried to hold the franchise hostage over this offseason) of one of the top players in the league. The top players in the league shouldn’t have their performances fluctuate like an average player. Yes, one would expect good players to struggle against the best, but the best players should perform no matter who they’re matched up against.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 9, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two guys I'd take right now (and going forwards):

Jared Allen
John Abraham

Neither is paid even half of what Peppers’ salary next year will be.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 9, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I have shown that

they’re stats are comparable to Peppers. Abraham had more sacks total, but more against inferior competition. Same with Allen. And don’t throw that “Allen is better vs the run” back at me, Pep is no slouch in that department.

by Flowing Willow on Jul 10, 2009 5:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that both Allen and Abraham are elite, but I would say that it is a toss up as to who is "better".

If I was ranking them, I would actually drop Abraham down a little (3rd or so) b/c of his injury history. Pep was/is being paid this much b/c he was/is in the last year(s) of his rookie contract. Most NFL contracts are backloaded. Then add the 20% increase from the franchise tag and well we know the rest.

Where the difference lies is in the timing of when Allen signed his deal, which was last year. Hopefully the rumors are true that Pep and the FO are close to a long term deal, b/c then his cap hit will drop tremendously.

Will Parker

by WillParker81 on Jul 10, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But at this point, what good will that actually do us?

There are virtually no FAs of note left on the market who could actually improve this team.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let him go.

He’s not worth the cost and the headache.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to say.

There’s really no telling what we could have done in free agency with an extra $17+ mil to spend.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same thing as last year

Sign a bunch of low cost vets, really did you think we were going to find a big name DE to replace Pep? No one on the market could replace Pep, either then or now. Also, re-signing Pep will give us a very good rotation at DE, money to lock up Kalil, D-Will, Davis, and others.

by Flowing Willow on Jul 11, 2009 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But that's only if...

…they work out a long-term deal with Peppers to offload the salary cap hit. Until then, Pep is just replaying last year’s situation, trying to impress another team enough to trade for him and give him the big money contract he’s seeking. That’s a double-whammy most teams aren’t prepared to endure.

So, the bottom line is that I think Fox and Hurney are taking the best approach. It’s wait-and-see for now. We make a long-term offer (again)…see if Peppers wants it in light of the few (if any) comparable offers he received from other teams. And, if doesn’t…we continue our plan for utilizing Everette Brown, Charles Johnson, etc. And we look to manage our salary cap and free agent situation as it arises.

But that’s just my two-cents,
—Neil

by NSpicer on Jul 11, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

AND

Peps stats over the season were better. He was dominate in many games last season, throwing out Oakland/Detroit, he completely took over the New Orleans game. It didn’t show in stats, but he was in the backfield every other play. Plus, he is an NFL player, he needs as much money as he can get now because when he is old and has a titanium hip, do you think the Panthers are going to give him a dime?

by Flowing Willow on Jul 10, 2009 5:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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