Julius Peppers vs Other Top DEs
by southtunnel on Jul 16, 2009 11:13 PM EDT
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PrintIn my opinion a very good defensive end doesn't just rack up sacks, but is a stats leader in many categories, is consistent and is disruptive all over the field. To get a more accurate view of how good Julius Peppers is, I took 5 of the best defensive ends right now, and compared him to them. Instead of just tackles I also looked at passes deflected and forced fumbles, as these are often over looked. To focus on consistency I looked at games with and without sacks, and with and without at least 3 tackles. I compared these over last year and their careers. Based on 2008 defensive leaders I chose Jared Allen, John Abraham, Justin Tuck, Mario Williams and Dwight Freeney. They are ordered best to worst in each category.
2008: Games with at least 1 sackPeppers 10 |
2008: Games without a sackPeppers 5 |
2008: Games with less than 3 tacklesTuck 3 |
2008: Games with 0 tacklesAbraham 0 |
2008: Games with at least 1 pass deflectionPeppers 4 |
2008: Total forced fumblesPeppers 5 |
Career: Sacks per yearAllen 11.5 |
Career: Total tackles per yearAllen 56 |
Career: Pass deflections per yearAllen 5.5 |
Career: Total forced fumbles over the last 3 yearsFreeney 12 |
Please check my numbers for accuracy. Let me say, I did NOT pick stats to favor Peppers. I chose these before looking at any numbers. But Peppers tops more lists then anyone else. He is also the only one that doesn't make the bottom 2 in any category. And he did this even with a very down year in 2007. It is obvious Peppers is one of the best - if not the best, all around defensive ends in the NFL. Letting him go might be impossible to replace.
The content of these posts are those of the genius making the post only. We only put the idiot disclaimer below to make the other writers feel good. Arguing this genius' points will only prove your incompetence.
The content of these posts are those of the user/fan making the post only
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This is very well written. I like it. I feel the same way you do, but I never saw the numbers like this. I still think 2009 is our last year with him on the roster, though. And I can’t say I’m overly concerned. Maybe I should be.
Thanks
If I knew Jaxon was going to promote it I would have spell/grammar checked it.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 17, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Disclaimer!!!
Hey did anyone notice the genius disclaimer I snuck in there at the bottom of the post? I was more proud of that than the actual post :)
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 17, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope, it looks too good
I completely missed it but nice tough. Honestly I might need to update my disclaimer to include the occasional genius post. No offense ;)
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Felt like a moron
After I posted this then saw that even the website thought I was an idiot :)
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Great stats
Thanks full pulling those together.
As Gaines said, I hadn’t looked at his stats that way and I find i quite telling. He would be hard to replace. I’m not convinced Brown is the answer (although he helps). I would like to see a long term contract with Peppers after 2009.
I keep hearing Brown compared to Freeney
Because of size. But according to this, Freeney doesn’t look that spectacular to me… at least not compared to these guys.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 17, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He's among the best in the game at what he does.
I’d probably be happy to take 10 sacks a year from Brown for the next seven years, even if those were the only 10 tackles he made in those years (probably not going to happen, obviously, but you get my point.) The Colts system (under Meeks) has demaded that the DEs get after the QB, sometimes at the expense of their performance (and statistics) in the run game. Tackles, to me, don’t mean much for defensive linemen in the first place. Maybe they’re getting tackles because they’re being run at. Maybe they’re getting them because of a weak tackling back seven. Either way, from a DE, what I want is consistent pressure on the QB, and Peppers has shown over the course of his entire career that you can’t count on him to provide that.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Consistent=over 50% (i.e. the majority of the time.)
For his career, Peppers has had a sack in 42% of his games.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Not true
70.5 sacks / 106 games = 66.5%
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Umm...no.
You discount his multi-sack games. Most of which come against the KCs and Oaklands of the world. Which is kind of the entire point. 6 2-sack games against bad to mediocre teams is far more impactful for your team than 12 1-sack games against good to great teams.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess you also discount Jake's multi-interception games, right?
That means he was 15/6 TD/INT… pretty stellar!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I actually don't.
Where have I said such a thing?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Just trying to use the same logic
We keep taking Peps stats, but stretching Jake’s
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is stretching anything?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Aaaah Ha!
Your question implies you are taking Peps stats to make your point.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
It what?
What are you even talking about?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
This conversation has gotten a lot more fun!
I don’t have any idea what’s going on now. Ya’ll keep it up!
by r3 on Jul 20, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
You cannot say that as a fact.
“6 2-sack games against bad to mediocre teams is far more impactful for your team than 12 1-sack games against good to great teams.”
You are making that statement in a void. How can you know that Pep did not prevent a scoring drive with any one of those sacks against bad teams and in turn dramatically help our chance of victory?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you're investing just as much in speculation as I am.
Again, if the sack total is the same, I’d rather they be as spread out as possible, and they not be agaisnt mostly shitty teams we could beat without a giant game. That was the point I was making.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
How am I "investing" in "speculation"?
I was stating possibilities and never said they were facts. Your statement was made as a fact, which it was not, it was an opinion.
As for spreading out his sacks against more teams, I would love that too, but I realize that getting to and sacking the QB is a very difficult thing to do. I will take what ever we get.
I personally want Pep to do more b/c I think he can, but I am not going to complain about his sack production when he has done the overall body of work that he has. Meaning:
2nd in the league in sacks since entering the league
14.5 sacks last year
5 FF last year
I also would like his cap hit to be lower, but that is just a part of the business. It will be lowered eventually, whether he signs long term with us or another team.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 20, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
But, what about these stats?
Granted, I’ve only looked at sacks, and I completely agree with you that Peppers brings alot more to the table. That being said, the primary job of a DE is to pressure the QB and sacks is the best indicator for their success rate. I too have gone back 3 years and wanted to compare Pepper’s success in games against teams that had winning seasons and teams that finished with a sub .500 record. It has long been my opinion that Pepper’s stats are padded by excellent games against horrible teams, then he doesn’t show up against big teams.
2006
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 10
Sacks vs. Over .500: 3
2007
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 2.5
Sacks vs. Over .500: 0
2008
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 12.5
Sacks vs. Over .500: 2
Total Sacks over previous 3 seasons
Against Sub .500 teams: 25
Against Over .500 teams: 5
This is a continuous theme in Pepper’s career. He has amazing, multiple sack games against poor teams then vanishes against any kind of resistance. Then at the end of the season I always think ‘wow, he had that many sacks… I don’t remember him having that many’.
Please keep in mind that I did not do this for Allen, Freeney, Tuck, Williams or Abraham and they may have very similar statistics. But, I think you can agree that this is pretty telling of what kind of DE Peppers is when facing good competition.
Here are Jared Allen's numbers for comparison
2006
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 6
Sacks vs. Over .500: 1.5
2007
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 9.5
Sacks vs. Over .500: 8.5
2008
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 10.5
Sacks vs. Over .500: 4
Total Sacks over previous 3 seasons
Against Sub .500 teams: 26
Against Over .500 teams: 14
Here’s another way to look at it.
Percentage of sacks against sub .500 teams over past 3 seasons:
Julius Peppers: 83.3%
Jared Allen: 65%
Nice job on this.
Whether people agree with my thoughts on a subject or not, I’m glad to see people are finding the value of statistical research.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
That's to you, too, southie.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
We shall see in 09'
Since we are playing mostly Over .500 teams. According to this Peppers should have another down year.
However this is why for 2008 I did games with and without sacks… to show consistency. Pep had less games with no sacks then any of them. But of course he racked them up against bad teams. Because they are easier to play against. If a player was not playing better against bad teams, then I would question his effort in those games.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 17, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's another fun fact...
2007 season where Peppers only had 2.5 sacks
- Total opponents overall W-L: 130-126 or .507 total win %
2008 season where Peppers had 14.5 sacks
- Total opponents overall W-L: 124-131-1 or .484 total win %
I know it’s only a shade difference in W-L %…. but it’s interesting that in the season Pep ‘disappeared’ our opponents overall wins were better than the season he had 14.5 sacks.
Despite all this, I hope he has a monster year this season.
by James Dator on Jul 17, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Peppers had a terrible year in 2007
There is no denying that! I am more concerned about that happening again, then I am him being up and down from game to game.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 17, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
He had 7 games without a sack, actually. I already pointed that out.
And one year, particularly a year in which his contract was expiring, does not consistency make. In January, he came up empty once again in a playoff matchup. He’s got eight career postseason games now, and if you project his numbers there over a full season, the results aren’t pretty: 34 tackles, 4 sacks, 8 PD, 4 INT, 0 FF. That’s rank right up there in the worst season of his career discussion with ‘07. So I guess the question comes down to this: would you rather look at numbers in a void come the end of the year and know that Peppers’ are going to look pretty good overall while a guy like Delhomme’s look average to above-average at best, or look at the game-by-game splits and performances knowing that Peppers tends to go away when the stage is biggest and the competition is best while Delhomme is a guy who does his best when the pressure is on and the team’s counting on him?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
This is my point exactly.
People hail Pep and admonish Jake based solely on end of season stats.
by James Dator on Jul 17, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
"Delhomme is a guy who does his best when the pressure is on and the team’s counting on him"
Really? Like in the 08’ playoffs?
I would say in 08’ Jake had big games under pressure against SD, ARI and GB. However under pressure he crumbled against MIN, TB(1st), and ARI. That’s a 50/50 help you win/throw the game away. Combined with playing terribly against bad teams… That’s true inconsistency!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Look at the NUMBERS, man...
Jake’s completion percentage and rating both go up significantly in close and late games.
Against Minnesota, the defense couldn’t stop the Vikings after Jake led us to a 10-0 lead. OK, he had a fumble returned for a TD. That’s 10-7. Where were Williams and Stewart (59 total yards combined rushing and receiving?)
Against TB, we went down 14-0 after a blocked punt and an interception that went directly off of Dante Rosario’s hands. Is that Jake’s fault?
Against Arizona, the running game again provided nothing and the defense didn’t force a punt on Arizona’s first seven drives! Apparently, you believe that Delhomme should do it all himself.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
i tried to be fair and give him 50/50
But this is unfair, because you give him all the credit when we win but blame everybody else when he sucks. You just blamed the running game against MIN, but why don’t you point out that the 2nd TB game when we had like 300+ rushing yards, Jake threw 2 picks, a sack and a 73 rating? If it wasn’t for DeAngelo and JStew running lights out, Jake would have lost that game for us too.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
No, I didn't give him all the credit for anything.
I pointed out that he wasn’t the sole problem in any of the losses you listed. We’ve won more than one game when Delhomme didn’t perform particularly well, and we’ve won plenty when he was the only thing working on a given day.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
This could go on for ever
Hmmm… I wonder if I can pull together Smith’s stats and find some reasons why he sucks?
Politics and religion are supposed to be the typical banned topics. But somehow Jake/Peppers is right up there with it!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
I never said Peppers stunk. I will enjoy him, his $16.7 million dollar one year contract and 13 sacks this year.
by bengoodfella on Jul 17, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Though we argue with facts
it is still opinion when determining which facts are more important or which ones prove a point. I could say Big Ben was the best QB in ‘08 because he won the SB. Someone else could argue its Rivers with his 106 QB rating. It all depends how we each define ’best’. So what I’m saying is all of you are ;)
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
I can't begin to hear the Pep is inconsistent argument
Until you guys agree that Jake is inconsistent. 122 rating the first Arizona game, 39 the second? 90+ rating against NYG, GB, Denver, ATL… but 12 against Oakland?
That’s the model of inconsistency… playing better against bad teams is normal.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 17, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Who says he isn't inconsistent?
However, at the end of the day (based on facts, i.e. statistics), he’s going to win you more games than he loses and he is going to play his best in the playoffs and at the end of close games when it matters.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Dwight Freeney's stats
2006
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 4
Sacks vs. Over .500: 1.5
2007
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 0
Sacks vs. Over .500: 3.5
2008
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 8.5
Sacks vs. Over .500: 2
Total Sacks over previous 3 seasons:
Against Sub .500 teams: 12.5
Against Over .500 teams: 7
Percentage of total sacks against sub .500 teams over the past 3 seasons: 64.1%
I will get the other players mentioned as I have time.
Mario Williams, Justin Tuck, John Abraham
Mario Williams
2006
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 2.5
Sacks vs. Over .500: 2
2007
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 4
Sacks vs. Over .500: 10
2008
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 6
Sacks vs. Over .500: 6
Total Sacks over previous 3 seasons:
Against Sub .500 teams: 12.5
Against Over .500 teams: 18
Percentage of total sacks against sub .500 teams over the past 3 seasons: 40.98%
-—————————————————————————————-
Justin Tuck
2006
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 0
Sacks vs. Over .500: 0
2007
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 5.5
Sacks vs. Over .500: 4.5
2008
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 7.5
Sacks vs. Over .500: 5
Total Sacks over previous 3 seasons:
Against Sub .500 teams: 13
Against Over .500 teams: 9.5
Percentage of total sacks against sub .500 teams over the past 3 seasons: 57.7%
-——————————————————————
John Abraham
2006
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 4
Sacks vs. Over .500: 6
2007
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 4
Sacks vs. Over .500: 6
2008
Sacks vs. Sub .500: 10
Sacks vs. Over .500: 6.5
Total Sacks over previous 3 seasons:
Against Sub .500 teams: 18
Against Over .500 teams: 18.5
Percentage of total sacks against sub .500 teams over the past 3 seasons: 49.31%
-—————————-
What does this say about Pepper’s ability to perform against good competition? In each comparison, he has the highest % of his sack total coming from sub .500 teams.
by James Dator on Jul 17, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I do not understand 2 things about your statistical argument.
1. Should a player not perform better against worse competition?
2. The stats you chose to use are for a 3 year time period. Shouldn’t it be for an entire career and then break down percentage/game or something like that? The 2007 season was a terrible year for Pep, we all know that. Yet this ONE season makes up 33% of your argument. That seems like statistical bias to me.
I am not sure if the numbers would change much if at all if taken into account the career, but I would think it to be a more accurate measure.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
We already discussed this
Like Jake you are suppose to play worse against bad teams. And Pep HAS to get 3+ sacks against every .500+ team because he had the audacity to accept 15Mil.
Also he grins goofy instead of pounding his chest… And that wasn’t just in 07’!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
I was talking about James The Aussie
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I know
I was answering for him
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
No.
Pep needs to get a sack in the playoffs more than twice in eight games.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
There's a difference...
between a player performing better against lesser competition and a player having the vast majority of his good performances (and his stats) against lesser competition.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Again, why is this not expected?
If I went and played DE against a middle school team I would dominate, but if I played against another athletic 27 yr/old with skill, then the production would drop.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Meaning,
I would expect Pep and many other DE’s to struggle against elite OT’s while performing better against lesser players.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude...we've put up the comparisons.
Yes, all good DEs struggle against good OTs. But Peppers’ splits are far more egregious than the vast majority of elite DEs in the game today.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember
Also because pass deflections, forced fumbles, punt blocks, etc are all inferior to sacks. None of it matters… you just need a couple sacks against really good teams, and take the rest of the year off.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
No.
You need to get a sack the majority of the time against ALL teams. Most elite DEs do. Peppers doesn’t.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
No. Not in my opinion at all. As a matter of...fact:
Peppers: 10.6 sacks/16; 42% of games with sacks (45/106)
Dwight Freeney: 11.0 sacks/16; 48% (50/103)
Aaron Schobel: 9.7 sacks/16; 50% (50/101)
John Abraham: 11.7 sacks/16; 52% (47/91)
Leonard Little: 10.3/16; 42% (40/95)
Jason Taylor: 11.9 sacks/16; 54% (59/109)
Jared Allen: 11.9 sacks/16; (39/77) ; 51%
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
"You need to get a sack the majority of the time against ALL teams."
That is opinion.
Many times Pep opens up opportunities for others.
Pep has not been playing with other elite DL-men, especially since Jenks left.
There are many other reasons for the 42% of games. To me, this is just being really picky. I would love for Pep to get a sack every game, at every key moment, against any OT in the NFL. The fact is, other players in the league get paid, are also great athletes and great at what they do.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
And yet Peppers gets paid more and performs less.
What does that say?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
He does many other things than just get sacks.
But he also ranks up in the tops in the league in getting sacks as well. I think that says a lot.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 20, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Then we've gone full circle
Back to the Post, Freeney, Williams and Tuck had 0 sacks in 50+% of the 2008 games
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Right...so they didn't have great overall seasons.
I’d rather a guy have seasons that aren’t great overall than careers.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
So Pep has not had a great career?
He is only #2 in the league in sacks since entering the league. That includes the terrible 2007 season.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Proc is just worried
… that this year he is going to have 12 sacks against Buffalo, none the rest of the year, make the ProBowl and walk away with 15M.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Not exactly...
And the next comment of yours that speculates as to what I’m “worried” about will be deleted, period.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Kind of makes the discussion a bit one sided doesn't it?
I have thoroughly been enjoying this dialog. Are you guys really upset about this?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
I have definitely been enjoying it
I’m curious though, what is the record for most comments, this surely comes close.
by Flowing Willow on Jul 21, 2009 5:58 AM EDT up reply actions
He's had a fine career.
He’s also been inconsistent.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you know what the play calls have been for every defensive play in his career?
I do not either. I would be willing to guess that there have been some play calls that limit what he can do. Who knows, maybe that was part of his beef about maxing out his potential.
Self admittedly, this is pure speculation. My point is this, there are MANY factors that frankly, none of us would know about that dramatically affect his production. That, is a fact.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 20, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
And I would guess there have been play calls that specifically maximize what he can do.
How can you not suggest that argument goes both ways?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not. I would guess that most of the play calls are designed for Pep to make plays in the backfield or maximize his potential.
My point is that there are also play calls when his job is, for example, containment, like when we went up against Vick or other scat-back types. We, as fans, do not know the whole story.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 21, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I still don't see the point.
Would not every end in the league face the same scheme and playcalling issues?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I see your point now.
However, not every DE in the league has the same ability, so the coordinators do not give them as many options. Also the different systems make a difference as well.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 21, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right, but you can't prove a negative.
(i.e. “Peppers is not as successful as he could be” when he’s been exceptionally successful.)
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I view it this way:
Pep has been very successful/productive (I would not quite say exceptional).
With that said, i think he can still do more. Whether that is coaching ot him, i do not know, nor pretend to.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 23, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't it all relative?
Exceptional in the history of Panther DEs? Definitely! Exceptional in the history of the NFL? No way!
Does he have flaws? Of course. Is he the best DE playing right now?… probably not. Is he one of the best DEs right now?… I don’t see how any unbiased person could say no.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
It's not statistical bias just because the statistics dont trend the way you want them too...
Furthermore, my statistics were a direct response to the original fanshot which was based on the last 3 seasons comparing the same DEs.
Justin Tuck has not been a starter for more than 3 seasons and Mario Williams was not in the league. Regardless or Peppers’ 2007 season it is still a measure of the last 3 seasons regardless of performance for each player.
To trend it for an entire career is meaningless, as we are discussing the current worth of Julius Peppers. To change the term would be specifically skewing the stats in Pepper’s favor. The sack total means less than the %, that is the key statistic. I am showing that over the last 3 seasons he has a trend of disappearing against good competition and padding his stats against poor teams. His .500 and sub .500 sack total % is higher than any other ‘elite’ DE in the league.
Percentages do not show bias towards a good sack total and a bad one.
by James Dator on Jul 20, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
As for the the statistical bias point I mentioned, I apologize.
I did not realize you compiled your stats b/c of the stats of the article. In that ignorance, it seemed to me that there may have been a bias.
On a seperate note, since we are talking about “the current worth of Julius Peppers”, shouldn’t we then value last season over anything else? That is the most recent data. In that case Pep was the most consistent, having at least 1 sack in 10 games while Abraham and Allen had at least 1 in 9 and Freeney 8.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 20, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
No, because he's thirty years old.
Look at the splits on the top 10 sack players who were at DE:
Bruce Smith: 11.5 sacks/year before 30; 8.9 from 30 on
Reggie White: 18.2; 9.9
Chris Doleman: 9.1; 10.7
Michael Strahan: 7.8; 11.4
John Randle: 10.0; 11.3
Richard Dent: 11.6; 7.1
Leslie O’Neal: 11.5; 8.7
That’s an average dropoff of more than 25% (13.0 to 9.7!) Yes, some increased, but overall, one would expect a dropoff, and, historically, a big one. Given Peppers wants a long-term deal of at least five years, are we goignt o be paying in 2012 or 2014 not for what he can do, but for what he could?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
My last comment was directed towards James.
I want to know from the 2 of you, which standard are we judging him by? Current or Career?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 21, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't looking at anything special...
I looked at the last 3 seasons only. Which over a 7 season career could be determined more as current.
That being said, I believe it is more important to look at current trends and what they indicate about the future rather than going back.
It certainly depends.
When it comes to his contract, it’s about present-term through the end of his contract. And, again, a single season does not tell the story about his abilities, past or present.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Michael and James
By no means will I judge a player based on one season’s worth of work. However, Pep has shown that he can get sacks and other production from his first season. This past year, and most current, was his best statistically, so I look at it as validation to his skill as a player first and DE second.
I agree with the two of you that he has shown to be inconsistent for most of his career (last year he was the most consistent DE in the league). I also would like for him to play better against better teams. There are, however, reasons great teams are, well, great teams. They have better players, better coaches, trainers, scouting, etc.
The 3 main reasons I will not bash on him are:
1. Even though he has had great games against average competition, he does have great overall production. There are other players going against the same “poor” teams, and they still do not get the same production.
2. I think he is capable of and will continue to get better.
3. He is a Panther, at least for now.
I do not expect you guys to agree. Rather I expect us to agree to disagree.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 24, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Just out of curiosity...
Why do you think he’ll get better? He’s 30, and in case you didn’t see my splits:
Look at the splits on the top 10 sack players who were at DE:
Bruce Smith: 11.5 sacks/year before 30; 8.9 from 30 on
Reggie White: 18.2; 9.9
Chris Doleman: 9.1; 10.7
Michael Strahan: 7.8; 11.4
John Randle: 10.0; 11.3
Richard Dent: 11.6; 7.1
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 24, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
He made strides last year and had his best year.
He has been training at AP in Az again this off-season and I know those guys are legit trainers. I think he will be in even better shape this year and even more athletic. I also have optimism in Meeks bringing a different style, which I believe will benefit Pep.
Also, I’m not sure if this is really pertantent (sp?), but most of those DE played in a time when the running game dominated, thus putting more of a pounding on the DE’s. Strahan and Randle were the most recent and improved on their numbers. But again, it is just a theory, I am not saying it is a fact. Back to my “rallying cry”. :-)
Finially, I am an optimist at heart. :-)
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 24, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Another reason Randle could have improved, though...
He played two years primarily at end after thirty, and just one there before.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 24, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
do you're saying...
…that in the universe you selected for comparison - and you see a trend there??
that 3 guys improved after 30, and 3 didn’t -
And I disagree about sacks being their primary job
It is definitely very important. But isn’t a pass deflection or a forced fumble… which could lead to turnovers better? Doesn’t a player who is causing havoc all over the field, create opportunity for his teammates? If you were an OC, who would you rather game plan against? A guy that could get you a number of different ways, or just a pure pass rusher?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 17, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Where do the vast majority of FFs by DEs come from?
Sacks and their hits on the QB. Either way, the league leader in those stats at the position is going to have, what, 5-7 PDs and 4-6 FFs? That’s not even one “play on the ball” a game combined, whereas it’s a reasonable conclusion that the best DEs in the league should be a threat to get a sack every single game. You can control that. You can’t control whether passes are thrown in your direction so you can knock them down or intercept them. You can’t control how good a ballcarrier’s ball-protection skills are or what direction you’ll have to pursue them from, which can obviously effect how likely you are to make a strip. It’s kind of like Michael Turner right now. He’s a great runner, but people complain he’s not good enough in the passing game. Well, just because Adrian Peterson (Chicago, not Minnesota) is better as a pass-catcher, does that make him the more balanced and skilled RB? I wouldn’t say so. Would you?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
The RB comparison does not work b/c Pep is also an elite pass rusher.
Where as the Bears Peterson is not even close to being an elite anything.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
And yet st suggests you can't be a great player without being somebody who can "get you in a number of different ways."
Turner certainly isn’t that guy.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Gotcha
I would consider Devin Hester one dimensional, and still call him a great player.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
But is he really a great PLAYER?
Or just a great returner?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
In case you could not tell, I was agreeing with you on this point.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Do I win the award for most comments in a Fan Post
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
No.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
Is that an award you would really want?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL!
I meant most comments on my Fan Post.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
You still don't.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you did win ST
Not that I counted them but we are up over 180 on this thread…it might be a new record. This reminds me of one of my favorite sayings, which you can modify to a degree to fit the situation, but here is my version. “Arguing with an engineer (or MP) is like wrestling with a pig in the mud. After a while you realize the pig is enjoying it”.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Perfect description
But remember Procton, here in the south we love our pigs, even pulled and slathered in BBQ. : D
by Flowing Willow on Jul 21, 2009 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions
SBN needs to add the yellow background for new comments
… On the mobile site. It’s almost imposible to follow with all these comments
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 21, 2009 10:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I bet that would be annoying.
Here’s the page where you can submit feedback:
http://www.sbnation.com/pages/contact
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I know
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Trust me every stat tracks the same way with Pep...
Tackles, FF, passes defended all show a bias towards poor teams. It’s not just stats.
What I am saying is that a DEs PRIMARY responsibility is to rush the passer and pressure the opponents passing game. That’s why they are drafted so high and that’s why they are so valued. Yes, Peppers brings alot of other elements which why he is a good player however alot of people annoint him as the ‘Best DE in the NFL’ and I think there are alot of statistics that show his career and season stats are padded by great performances against poor teams.
All the other DEs can ‘take over a game’ against a good opponent, I can’t think of the last time our opponent’s passing game was completely shut down by Pep. It just doesn’t happen
by James Dator on Jul 17, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I am almost nervous to opine. ST, that was a good job getting the information together and I am not going to argue at the end of the year Peppers numbers tend to look good. It sure does seem that he goes several games without a sack and I don’t want to agree with James without having data but I can’t recall the last time Peppers just absolutely ruined a team’s passing game.
For example, I felt like Jared Allen absolutely killed the Panthers at the end of the game they lost this past year. When has Peppers ever done that? Sure, he makes wonderful plays and is super duper athletic, but I just don’t see him taking over games defensively at any point.
In response to someone saying I have high expectations of him…you are absolutely right I have high expectations of someone who wants to be the highest paid defensive player in the NFL. I think expectations should be high for that type of player.
It is completely pointless to try and compare the performance of a DE and a QB against good and bad teams b/c there are different variables involved. For example, I would not expect Jake to play better against Oakland b/c they have the best CB in the league so half the field is almost shut down for him.
by bengoodfella on Jul 17, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Double standard
Jake is allowed to play bad against a good CB, but Peppers has to play equally good against over and under .500 teams.
When has Pep dominated? Someone just pointed out that Pep’s domination against Oakland was the only thing that stopped Jake from throwing that game away?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Not what anybody said.
bgf noted that Oakland has a great CB who makes life for even the very best QBs in the league difficult.
On the other hand, I’ve noted when Peppers has been completely shut down by multiple average or worse OTs. And no, Peppers was not the only reason we won against Oakland. Williams had a great game (a new career-high of 140 yards), Beason played a great game (15 tackles), Davis had a great game (10 tackles and a sack, and Gamble and Marshall played very well (5 tackles and a pick each.)
It’s very easy to point to Jake as the reason we win in close games because he often has to lead the drive and throw for the TD that puts the game-winning TD on the board. Peppers, on the other hand, can’t (and hasn’t) win a game on his own without something like an INT or fumble return for a TD. And for all the athletic talent in the world, Peppers only has 1 career TD period, much less one (or multiple) game-winners.q
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It is a double standard. Jake is not asking to be paid like the best QB in the NFL, so we do have lower expectations for him. Peppers, if he wants to be paid like the best defensive player in the league or at least the best defensive end should therefore be able to play equally well against over and under .500 teams. This isn’t really about Jake Delhomme, I just used it as an example and probably should not have.
Peppers had a great game against Oakland. I will not deny that. The one instance where Peppers saves the Panthers doesn’t make up for the games where he disappears. Take away the sacks against Detroit, KC, and Oakland, the weakest teams in the league…he had 8.5 sacks in 13 games. That’s not an elite player.
by bengoodfella on Jul 17, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
"It is a double standard. Jake is not asking to be paid like the best QB in the NFL, so we do have lower expectations for him."
yes, Yes, YES, a million times over…YES
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Money has nothing to do with it
Pretty much everyone tries to get as much as they can. The reason Jake isn’t asking to be paid line one of the best is because he isnt
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 18, 2009 12:06 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Money has EVERYTHING to do with it.
Peppers takes up almost 20% of our cap space. If he’s doing that and not producing when we need him most (i.e. the playoffs), the team is going to suffer.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
We lost all of our O-line Depth because of Julius Pepper’s hefty tag. We stand to lose even more of our O/D-Lines next year with both starting guards and a DE nearing the end of their contracts.
This situation has to be solved, and sooner rather than later. Trade or sign him to an extension, I don’t care anymore. But if he pulls this crap where he doesn’t sign his tag for months on end while we lose valuable players to other teams, I say we trade him to the Detroit Lions.
"Once again the trowsers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
Maybe you were talking about Kalil's contract expiring...
But Wharton is here through ’13.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Why wouldn't they just let him go then?
Obviously they think he’s more valuable than some o-line reserves. I would agree.
More than o-line depth we need more QB pressure. And letting Pep go takes away 14.5 sacks and makes it harder on Johnson and Brown. I would rather decrease our o-line backups than destroy our already weak pass rush.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 18, 2009 2:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Has nothing to do with it because it's not Peps fault
Don’t blame the guy for taking the money, blame the ones giving it to him
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 12:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why?
Why not just expect a guy to go out and live up to his end of the contract, every game.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Have you ever been involved in running a business
You do your job well to get paid, not because you got paid
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 12:45 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Your logic implies
That those who do not get big contracts should not have to work as hard. That’s backwards
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 12:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No.
My logic implies that those who have earned big contracts have not also earned the right to rest on their laurels.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
In my business endeavors...
I do my job well all the time. But I guess that’s just me.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
That's great, but still...
You pay someone because of what they’ve done, not what there going to do. If for whatever reason you have an bad month at work, maybe you get caught on catscratchreader.com all day :), are you going to tell your boss you deserve less? No. If the money’s there you take it.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
If I don't show up and do my job more than half the time, I'd lose my job.
Peppers has gone without a sack in 58% of his career games.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
If you destroyed your whole companies year
by playing like an imbecile the last game, you’d get fired too.
Maybe this is a bad analogy. My bad
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If there was an important project and everybody sucked...
No, I wouldn’t get fired just because I happened to be among the project leaders. Everyone would share the blame, and their job status would be evaluated on the overall merit of their results.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If Pep puts up 14 sacks this season the...
“getting sacks against lesser opponents” has to go away since we play only one team with a losing record in 2008.
Must you guys continue this argument? We all, and I think I speak for everyone, know where you two guys stand on Jake and Pep. Can we move on?
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
by Jaxon on Jul 20, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No! Are you crazy?!?
They’re just gettin’ started!
1000 comments, here we come!!!!
by r3 on Jul 20, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought we were just getting started?
I am planning 100 more ways to say the same thing.
Plus you know its inevitably going to come up again.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
That's just your ego lying to uou
Bussinesses in general have a very low success rate. Anyone who has started one knows that nobody is always successful
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 24, 2009 2:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Lol
Take away some of any elite leader’s stats and they are no longer an elite leader
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 17, 2009 11:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
THIS
you are absolutely right I have high expectations of someone who wants to be the highest paid defensive player in the NFL
And not only wants to in the future, but who has ranked right up there the last few seasons.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice job ST
Makes me wonder why Freeney doesn’t get the ‘takes games off’ label like Peppers. I think it has more to do with higher expectations than based on really on-the-field facts. On the flip side I will say he too often is effectively handled by a single blocker.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Because he's about 40 pounds lighter and not an impact player in the run game.
Now, I don’t know that setting the bar at three tackles is an indication that any of these other guys are, but Freeney has never been a high-tackle guy because he has a hard time when he’s the one getting worked instead of the one doing the working. Also, Peppers had a cap number ($14 mil+) that was nearly three times as high as Freeney’s last year ($5 mil.) A no-show game is a little easier to swallow if a guy isn’t taking up more than 10% of your cap.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
The cap numbers have to do with timing.
Most players have back-loaded contracts. I believe Freeney signed a deal 2 years ago and thus will be getting more money in the following years. While Pep’s cap hit will drop whenever he signs a long term deal, for whichever team.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
If I was Pep
I’d take 15M this year, 20M next, then try to sign a long term in 2011. Fans already hate him… might as well get the money.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Great job james. I too have looked at Peppers sacks at the end of the season and wondered where they came from because I dont remember hardly any of them. This is why Peppers has the label of showing up when he wants to and why he should not be franchised again next year. If only he could show up for games against quality competition.
I appreciate it
I had no idea the numbers would be so spread against Julius until I finished.
by James Dator on Jul 17, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Look at it again
If you watched only half of Panthers games last year, you would have at minimum seen 3 sacks from Peppers. However if you watched Freeney, Tuck or Williams 8 games, you might not have seen any. Because in over 8 games they were sack-less.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 17, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, though, that's not how it works.
The longest Freeney went between sacks was four games. Williams and Tuck only went three (and that included when Tuck was playing hurt.) One season worth of so-called consistency doesn’t change the fact that Peppers has had a longer career high sackless string than any of them at five games (which he’s done THREE TIMES.) I guess that’s like saying you could watch an entire season of Peppers’ and not see a sack if you picked and chose like you want to.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
So according to your comments
Sounds like you would trade Pep straight up for Williams, Freeney or Tuck right? But you wouldn’t trade Jake for Peyton Manning, right?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 18, 2009 12:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Frankly, given their current contracts and age, yes.
And yeah, I’d certainly take Manning. What kind of fool wouldn’t? But I’d wonder what kind of a leader he really is after we’ve seen him trash his line in the media and come up short in the playoffs time and time again.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
James and southy, nice evaluation of stats!
I do loves me some stats!
But James, your stats are a little off. I’m not sure how you’re registering teams who finished at 8-8, but Peppers’ 2008 sack stats are like so:
v below .500 teams: 8.0
v over .500 teams: 4.5
v exactly .500 teams: 2.0
Either way, here’s how I read your info on sub-v-over .500 teams, in light of southy’s stats. The most important stats to me are the ones that indicate inconsistency: Games Without A Sack and Games With Less Than 3 Tackles. Sure, Jared Allen and Mario Williams and all of those guy have performed well against both good and bad teams. But they’re invisible much more often than they show up.
Would you be happier if, like Mario Williams, Dwight Freeney and Jared Allen, half of the games he played in, he never even sniffed the quarterback, or barely ever got his hands on the running back? Even though Oakland and Detroit were awful teams last year, our offense didn’t bring their A game against those teams (didn’t bring their B- or C- game against Oakland, either) and our defense had to win it. Peppers was huge against Oakland.
You’ve gotta bring it more often than not, no matter who’s lining up across from you. Peppers does that better than ANYONE playing DE today. Sure, I’d love it if he could do that against Tampa Bay and Atlanta and Arizona and the Giants, too. But I’ll take his performance rather than having him disappear against Jacksonville or Detroit or Oakland or Green Bay or Cleveland… the way Mario Williams did.
Think about it: would disappearing against inferior competition actually be a good thing?! I don’t think so…
True...
Let me clarify that I did include clubs at .500 with the ‘sub .500’ crowd. It was an oversight that I didn’t mention it. I still think the number of sacks against 8-8 teams doesn’t really throw the numbers off enough. Every player was treated this same way with all 8-8 sacks being included as ‘sub .500’
by James Dator on Jul 17, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I didn't think half a sack here or there was going to sway anyone's opinion...
..but lumping New Orleans in with Detroit seems a bit unfair to the Saints :)
Oh yeah, the real point of this:
In 2008, Peppers logged 4.5 sacks against teams who were distinctly over .500. Not the 2.0 sacks you listed.
So that’s a significant difference in my book.
Fair enough
I did list the Bucs as going 8-8 and missed the Giants sack at the end… my error.
2008
Sub .500: 10
Over .500: 4.5
Still, an errata in 2.5 sacks does not sway the 3 year % which is far more telling.
by James Dator on Jul 17, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
No he didn't.
.500 is, by definition, not over .500. That would be .501.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Oooooh
Now I get it .001 difference, Peppers really is inconsistent
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
sorry for the sarcasm
But I had to stick it in there for the “That’s to you, too, southie” remark ;)
So, we have to agree on something… What do you think? DeAngelo deserved to go to the ProBowl? Steve Smith is a top 5 receiver? You pro-John Fox?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Really?
That was intended as a compliment to your effort in your research.
And yes, all of those things are true.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a stickler for people needing to say what they mean and mean what they say
Especially when they bold a statement and use a word like distinctly.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I said precisely what I meant. And my numbers are accurate.
.500 is .500. Peppers logged 4.5 sacks against teams OVER .500. As I said. He logged 2.0 sacks against teams directly AT .500. He logged 8.0 sacks against teams BELOW .500.
Thems the numbers. I have no idea why you’re confused by this.
by r3 on Jul 17, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
What about when the stats were stated as "Below .500" and the sacks were lumped in with them.
As mentioned above, “. . . lumping New Orleans in with Detroit seems a bit unfair to the Saints.” In any given NFL year a team can go from 8-8 to playoffs or even Super Bowl. The difference is substantial, especially when considering the Lions were the 1st team in history to go 0-16.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, it's arbitrary...
But if it’s applied the same to all of the players considered, it doesn’t really matter.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless
. . . the person gathering the facts/stats has a bias and knows that it can be exploited by limiting the number of seasons in question.
I am not saying this is what actually happened when James the Aussie compiled the stats, just that it is not the best measure when considering the 2007 season for pep’s argument.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Like you did in showing the number of games with a sack last year as opposed to the career?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
Are we not talking about Pep’s career? I thought that is what we all were talking about, hence the most applicable info.
Do you not agree?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at the above stats:
Even though Peppers has one of the lower career games w/sack ratios, southie chose to use just last year, when he was the best.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought you were talking about the stats I put together?
I am not referring to what anyone else has said.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Re-post them.
I’m talking about the ones that were presented as the foundation of this article.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Here
In summary,
The people who have issues with Pep.
1. Do not like his cap hit
2. Want him to play better at key times (4th quarters) against the best teams
3. Do not like his smile :)
The people who support Pep
1. Think he is too good to let go
2. The grass is not going to be greener
3. Do not like his cap hit
4. Want him to play better at key times (4th quarters) against the best teams
5. Do not like his smile :)
The following are stats for sacks/16 games for some of the best 4-3 DE’s in the NFL:
Allen = 11.95
Freeney = 10.94
Pep = 10.64
Williams = 10.16
Umenyiora = 9.22
Tuck = 7.07
IMO, Allen, Pep and Mario are the best DE’s in the NFL. They are well rounded DE’s that play the run and pass.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 20, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh.
It appears I was responding to southie instead of you. Whoops.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I put career stats too
Most people are most concerned with what a player is doing now. Plus I was about to dig through every season of all these players.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 20, 2009 1:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He should have written ≤.500, but that's a hard one to find.
Again, career-wise, Peppers has a lower ratio of games w/sack: games than ALL OF THESE GUYS A single (contract) year doesn’t change that.
And, frankly, if the raw numbers are the same at the end of the year (and when it comes to these players, they usually are), I’d rather have the guy that stepped up and had his big games against great opponents when the team was counting on him most rather than the games where he wasn’t really needed and his team could have picked up the slack if he didn’t bring his A game.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree... I should have used equal to or less than....
But honestly, it’s not as if 99% of Pep’s sub .500 sacks were due to 8-8 teams. It makes up a total sack number less than 10% of his total. Whether you believe 8-8 and 9-7 are almost analagous or not, I needed to have some point to start at. I chose .500 teams.
Furthermore, all players were subjected to the same method. If I used a different system for Peppers in evaluating the others I could deservedly be dragged over the coals for it.
You're right.
I was just noting that you hadn’t exactly provided wrong data, just not explained it well.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Except that he did provide the wrong data for Peppers' 2008 stats.
Which he already noted and agreed with. I didn’t follow up on any of the other stats JTA mentioned, but I don’t think anyone’s concerned about the 8-8 v 9-7 record teams, as long as there’s consistency.
Of course, if you decided instead to measure vs. playoff teams, then you’d have to include the Chargers, who made the playoffs at 8-8. So, ya know. That, of course, wouldn’t change much since Pep didn’t get a sack that game. Point is, as long as there’s consistency (and accuracy), it provides a great point for discussion.
by r3 on Jul 17, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to take a second to laugh at us Panther fans...
Only we would be arguing amongst ourselves over which of our franchise defining players is more overrated and pathetic on Sundays.
It’s nice to see this kind of passion we show towards our team.
You know who really sucks? Steve Smith!
Last season, he had four games where he caught fewer than 5 passes! What’s so great about Minnesota’s corners that he was held to only 4 catches? He’s supposed to be “One of the top 5 receivers in the game!” Doesn’t sound like a top 5 receiver to me! Only 4 catches against Green Bay’s aging secondary? For zero touchdowns? That’s just sad!
And when the competition was the greatest, against Nnamdi Asomugha, he had all of 1 catch for 9 yards! Pathetic! The best players in the game come to play against the highest levels of competition! You know when else he disappeared? Against the Giants. We could have used more than 3 catches that game! Biggest game of the regular season, and where’s Smitty? It’s like he never got off the plane!
You know, if Peppers got up and did a dance or flexed his muscles or spun the ball or something to draw attention to himself, maybe we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. Nope, instead MP’s gonna complain about how Peppers gets off the quarterback, and all he does is go back to the sideline “with that dumb smile on his face!”
by r3 on Jul 17, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
It's all about the position.
Offensive players are SO much more reliant on their teammates to produce. For Smith to have a good game, he has to have Jake throw well enough, which requires the line blocking well enough. And for Smith to have a great game, it requires the runners attract enough attention that Smith isn’t double0 and triple-covered the entire game. Defenders like Peppers are often matched up against a single player who, if they beat, they can make a play. Obviously, there are some factors which effect defensive players: the better a QB is at moving in the pocket and getting rid of the ball or the better corners are at keeping receivers covered can give a pass-rusher more time to get to the ball. But these are not direct links like on offense.
Further Smith DOES step up in the playoffs. His 16-game pace through eight playoff contests:
110 catches, 1656 yards (15.0 YPC), 14 TDs
Now compare that to Peppers’ playoff “season”: 34 tackles, 4 sacks, 8 PD, 4 INT, 0 FF
Which of those lines do you think would have a player in the Pro Bowl?
Finally, with regards to Peppers dancing or flexing or anything else. I really don’t care how he comports himself on the field. But it sure would be nice to see some show that he actually gives a shit when he’s being paid eight figures to play a fucking game. And that goofy smile is the perfect example of the fact that he just doesn’t. It’s there whether he just made a sack to stop a potential game-winning drive or whether he doesn’t have a single tackle and we’re down three TDs. It’s very telling that a guy who “was too intimidated by the veterans” and “didn’t want to step on Rucker’s toes” as a leader fell flat on his face when those excuses were gone and Richardson told him to step up and be a player his teammates could look up to as an emotional cornerstone of the team.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Defensive players don't rely on each other at all
Charles Johnsons 6 sacks had nothing to do with Peppers. And the offense taking leads and giving or not giving the defense time to rest, means nothing.
And please Peps goofy smile is soley because he looks goofy. Him and Smith have different personalities… Is that what this really is about?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 18, 2009 12:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Unless you're someone who blindly supports Pep...
Then it’s the Panther’s fault when Peppers has an off season because they didn’t pair him with an elite end who could take some of the blocking focus.
Defensive players DEFINITELY rely on each other. A team with a better d-line that gets more pressure on the QB will also have a secondary who gets more takeaways due to a rushed QB.
As for Peppers’ attitude, I see both sides of the coin. But more often than not it does appear like he’s not as mentally and emotionally invested in the game as other players. I could equally argue that Smitty is TOO invested in each play. One thing I do know for sure is I grew up playing and watching rugby, and along with football my next favorite sport is hockey. In both of those sports you NEVER see a vital, powerful, defensive player with the same lax attitude that Peppers displays.
I have said for a long time that heart makes up 75% of a player and can often overshadow physical deficiencies. If you took Troy Polamalu’s heart and put it into Pepper’s body we would have the greatest defensive player to ever play the game. As it stands, Pep can get 10-15 sacks per season with physical talent alone. It makes me wish to see the player he could be if he had that emotional fire.
I think Pep just isn't mentally or emotionally invested in anything
I don’t think it’s just Football. He seems to be a bit in another world on and off the field.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 18, 2009 3:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
...and that's a good thing for a guy being paid more than anybody else on the team by a long shot?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't mean he's not an incredible player
We asked him to get 14.5 sacks, 5 pass deflections and to force fumbles, not to formulate quantum physics
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 18, 2009 6:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wait...so acting like you give a shit is equivalent to quantam physics?
You sure must have been better at school than me.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously
The word “not” implies it isn’t equivalent.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Umm...
The offense was in the lead most of last year. And, as I specifically said, “There are some factors which effect defensive player…but these are not direct links like on offense.”
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Getting a little emotional, aren't we?
“Offensive players are SO much more reliant on their teammates to produce.”
Tell that to the back seven in the Giants game last year.
“And that goofy smile is the perfect example of the fact that he just doesn’t. It’s there whether he just made a sack to stop a potential game-winning drive or whether he doesn’t have a single tackle and we’re down three TDs.”
One of the greatest coaches of all time in any sport, John Wooden, preached the principle of staying level at all times. This principle has to do with the emotional ebbs and flows of life and games such as football. For every high there is a low, so by staying on an even keel he saving his emotional energy.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions
"Saving his emotional energy?"
Jesus, I guess we don’t want to stress him too much. He’ll get worn out by the playoffs, I guess. Oh, wait…with two sacks in eight games come the postseason, I guess he’s worn out either way.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You completely missed the point or just did not really want to address it.
Either way I will not respond in-depth to such an argument.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I did address it.
Is “saving his emotional energy” helping? Not that I can tell. He sucks out loud in the playoffs regardless of his huge surplus of “emotional energy” because he never shows that he gives a shit.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL
You really do not like the guy.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't like the fact that he acts like he couldn't possibly care about his team, its players, and football period.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Objection your honor. That is pure speculation.
How can you possibly say what another person cares and doesn’t care about?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 20, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
In case you haven't noticed I am just trying to have fun at this point.
As Jaxon stated earlier “We all, and I think I speak for everyone, know where you two guys stand on Jake and Pep. Can we move on?”
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 20, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
"he ACTS LIKE he couldn't possibly care about his team, its players, and football period"
When you’re a professional athlete and you live your life in front of a camera, perception IS reality.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Awesome! You beat me to it :)
Peppers does have a doofus of a grin though
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 18, 2009 12:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Awesome post
Very, very good statistics.
Julius Peppers playing at 80% is almost the best DE in the league. It’s hard to fathom, but as I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. Julius Peppers is one of the best DE’s in the league, period. If we trade him, we better get at the very LEAST 2 2nd rounders. He’s practically worth an entire draft when he’s at his best.
He simply can’t be stopped.
"Once again the trowsers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
..."When he's at his best..."
An\d how often does that happen? Exactly as often as Mr. “Million-a-Game” wants it to.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
A million a game.
I never get tired of hearing that.
Time for a sigh.
"Once again the trowsers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
It's accurate though...
and he better play like ‘an entire draft class’ for the shenanigans he’s pulled this off-season.
“I want to leave”
“I want a 3-4”
time elapses… the offers don’t role in
“Well, I’m open to staying… I never said I wanted to leave!”
signs tender
“Lets make a deal!”
no deal signed
Do I blame him for signing the franchise tender? Of course not. But, his actions are the sole reason we have NO o-line depth for the upcoming season. If he was serious and restructured his deal we could have added the depth we need. If there are injuries on the O-line it will be Pepper’s ‘million a game’ that sunk our season.
Like the new profile pic.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Man, its amazing how polarizing Peppers and Delhomme are to Panthers fans. However I think most can agree that they’re both inconsistent and currently signed to ridiculous contracts.
How is Delhomme's contract "ridiculous?"
He’s paid in the middle tier for NFL veteran QBs. Is that not what he is?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing alot of people don't understand about Delhomme's contract...
is that he’ll never see half of the money in it. He’s guaranteed $20 million of it, yes… and he was the winner because the Panther’s needed the cap relief… but that will be all he sees out of the deal.
There is no doubt in my mind he will be waived, cut or retire before the contract ever reaches term. It was a cap reshuffling, not a performance based bonus.
This is an accurate statement...
But as long as he does stay on the team, he’s still under contract at a very reasonable rate.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not so sure
Looking over the numbers of his deal, it really doesn’t seem backloaded to me. Yes, the two last base years of the deal are more than the rest, but with contracts going up every year and everything else considered, they are still relatively good value IMO. His base years only top out at $4.62M in the last year. I wasn’t able to find roster bonuses/incentives so if someone could fill me in that would be appreciated.
Other than retiring, I don’t think we cut Jake unless his play severely decreases and we decide to go in another direction. If he is an effective QB than I really don’t see this contract holding us back.
If you want to see a real backloaded deal – check out Haynesworth. $29M in year 5 of the deal…..no thank you.
Cap charges: $8.591 million (2009), $4.785 million (2010), $5.745 million (2011), $6.705 million (2012), $7.665 million (2013), $8 million (2014).
Note also that his cap number for ’09 pre-extension was over $10 mil.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Right
But how much of each of those numbers are already guaranteed?. I was trying – maybe unsuccessfully – to look at how much we would save each year by cutting him.
OK, here goes.
$20 million is reportedly guaranteed. Now, we don’t know how much of that is signing bonus, but we can look at his cap hit relative to his base each year and see how much prorated money there is each year total.
’09: 8.591 cap-3.2 base=5.931
’10: 4.785-1.624=3.161
’11: 5.745-1.74=4.005
’12: 6.705-2.7=4.005
’13: 7.665-3.66=4.005
’14: 8-4.62=3.38
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Rotoworld.
They tend to have the best contract info across all sports. Just type in “[player name] rotoworld,” and it’ll usually be the first result. For baseball, try Cot’s Contracts.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
My problem with his contract was the length, not the money...
But if he is cut or retires before the end without us taking too much of a cap hit for cutting him, then then by all means. I knew we had to reshuffle our cash to free up cap space, but extending the contract of an aging QB who just had an epic collapse in the playoffs didn’t make much sense at the time. I doubt Jake would be worth 8 million dollars come 2014.
And I doubt he'll be on the team come 2014.
Either way, once guys like Manning and Rivers get extended, $8 mil may be a pittance by that time.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Pancanbra
Are you any relation to chupacabra?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Jul 18, 2009 3:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
In summary,
The people who have issues with Pep.
1. Do not like his cap hit
2. Want him to play better at key times (4th quarters) against the best teams
3. Do not like his smile :)
The people who support Pep
1. Think he is too good to let go
2. The grass is not going to be greener
3. Do not like his cap hit
4. Want him to play better at key times (4th quarters) against the best teams
5. Do not like his smile :)
The following are stats for % of games w/a sack for some of the best 4-3 DE’s in the NFL:
Allen = 74.7%
Freeney = 68.4%
Pep = 66.5%
Williams = 63.5%
Umenyiora = 57.6%
Tuck = 44.2%
IMO, Allen, Pep and Mario are the best DE’s in the NFL. They are well rounded DE’s that play the run and pass. Allen has the benefit of playing with 2 top 10 DTs giving them the #1 starting DL in football. The Giants have the #2 DL with their FA signings and return of Umenyiora. I expect Pep to perform even better this year with the addition of E. Brown, C. Irvin, and Meeks along with the development of C Johnson and Brayton.
Will Parker
Dude, you're putting up incorrect information.
You cannot divide the number of sacks by the number of games to find their percent of games with a sack. That assumes they get exactly 1.0 sack in every game they get a sack.
Also, Jared Allen put up great numbers while he was in KC with nobody else on the line, and Peppers had his worst season playing alongside Jenkins, Kemoeatu, and Rucker, all above-average starters.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Rucker was in the twilight of his career (and that is being kind) and Kemo is not a pass rusher.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 19, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait...
So being a below-average pass-rusher means you don’t draw double teams? Funny, I’d think coaches who plan against Pat Williams would disagree.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha, when did I ever say that?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 20, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
You suggested that Kemoeatu, as "not a pass rusher," didn't attract attention for Peppers.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I understand what you are saying now.
When has Kemo ever been on the field in passing situations?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 21, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Just because he's not on the field during obvious passing situations...
Doesn’t mean he’s never been on the field when the offense has chosen to pass.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
When Kemo is on the field for a passing play, I hardly see the other team being as worried about him as they are about Pep.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 24, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I never said they were.
I simply said he was an above-average starter capable of attracting attention from a line.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 24, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
If we are talking about running downs/plays, I agree with you.
On passing downs/plays, however I differ. That is the bases of my agruement.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 24, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Another small factor
Haven’t heard this mentioned, but are any stats recorded for blocking extra points or FG attempts?
As these are direct point savers, they should enter into the evaluation of a defensive player. I seem to recall that Peppers has done this several times.
He and Shaun Rogers tied for most blocked field goals with five
I would think Procton has the same beef with Rogers as Peppers, as Rogers is a fat slouch who doesn’t try half the time and is overpaid. ;) The only difference between him and Peppers is that Pep isn’t fat, according to Procton. Just like Will Parker did, I’m going to break it down.
Hate Peppers
Bloated salary
Demeanor on the field
Dominates lower competition while sometimes struggling vs higher
He wanted to leave Carolina
Love Peppers (either love or hate, there is no middle ground)
- in sacks since he came into the league
His impact can’t be replaced anytime soon
He draws attention whenever he steps onto the field
He is a well rounded, balanced player, equally good at stopping the run as playing the pass
He singlehandedly keeps our D-line from being the worst in football
I would also like to point out Peppers can dominate vs good teams, this season vs New Orleans is a prime example, that first game, he was in the backfield consistently, stats don’t show it, but Procton, I hate to break it to you, stats aren’t infallible.
by Flowing Willow on Jul 20, 2009 5:45 AM EDT up reply actions
…stats aren’t infallible.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
by r3 on Jul 20, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't lol
More like a chuckle. : )
by Flowing Willow on Jul 21, 2009 6:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I can assure you we wouldn't have the worst DL in football without Peppers.
Johnson/Kemoeatu/Lewis/Brayton would be better than:
KC: Turk McBride/Tank Tyler/Glenn Dorsey/Tamba Hali
CIN: Geathers/Domata Peko/John Thornton/Antwan Odom
WAS: Demetric Evans/Cornelius Griffin/Kedric Golston/Andre Carter
BUF: Kelsay/Stroud/Kyle Williams/Ryan Denney
DEN: Ekuban/Robertson/Marcus Thomas/Dumervil
GB: Kampman/Pickett/Jolly/Mike Montgomery
JAX: Reggie Hayward/Henderson/Meier/Spicer
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
A few of those teams you mentioned have different players now.
Washington – Haynesworth and Orakpo (at least some of the time)
Buffalo – Aaron Schobel and Aaron Maybin
GB – BJ Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Justin Harrell
Jacksonville – Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves
Cincy – Tank Johnson, Pat Sims, Michael Johnson (Jaxon’s boy) and Frostee Rucker
So your claim is debatable, but the point is, do we really want to be mentioned with KC and Denver?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 21, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, I was just trying to dispute an "opinion presented as fact..."
Isn’t that your current rallying cry?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You are free to have your opinion, even if you think a DL of:
Johnson – Kemoeatu – Lewis – Brayton
is better than the ones mentioned above. The same way that FW is allowed to have his opinion of our DL w/out Pep.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 24, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahh...
So you only want to rail against me, then.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 24, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
No not really.
I personally like having discussions with you. You are very knowledgable and articulate. I agree with you on most things (except for Pep and spiritual matters), such as Jake. I would think of you as a person who I would have a good time watching a Panther game with and breaking down plays or battling about the impact that Pep has on the game. If I have ever come across as trying to attack you, I apologize.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 24, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh...
I just want you to be an equal opportunity criticizer. I specifically recall you complaining that my opinions were stated as fact, whereas you fought for the right of FW to state his opinions in any fashion.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 24, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Bit of an exaggeration where I said we were the worst without Pep
Obviously a KC line that managed only ten sacks is worse. But the point is, do you want to be at the bottom or at the top. A line with Peppers is better than a line without Peppers.
by Flowing Willow on Jul 25, 2009 4:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Well they exaggerate too
… like when they say Peppers never plays well against good teams or good o-lines.
I would say “A line with Peppers is MUCH better than a line without Peppers”
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Who said that?
I didn’t.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 25, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
You need to read each post in context with the conversation.
FW was speaking for people who “Love Peppers (either love or hate, there is no middle ground)”, when he said Pep " . . . singlehandedly keeps our D-line from being the worst in football."
When I replied to you with the fact vs opinion statement was when you were making an argument for a point with an opinion.
In summary, FW made a statement of opinion speaking for people that share similar thoughts on Pep. He was not speaking for Pep detractors. You were making an argument, to me, using an opinion.
Sorry MP, I do not have time to research your specific comments.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 25, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
A few things about your post Flowing Willow.
1. Where did you get the statistic for blocked FGs from? This is not a tracked statistic by the NFL and I cannot find any website that corroborates your numbers.
2. New Orleans weren’t a great team, or even a good team last season. They went 8-8, 4th in our division and missed the playoffs. Pep being their backfield all game may be true, but it still supports the initial argument that his performance and stats are padded by good perfomances against average or worse teams.
I don’t doubt your points about Peppers. Furthermore, I am in the middle ground of which I believe there is one. I think Peppers is a good DE, not a great one and certaintly not one worth being the highest paid defensive player in the NFL (which the Panthers were willing to make him).
Statistics are infallible. People’s interpretation of what statistics means is fallible. People are going to use the original fanshot to support their argument, or use my stats to support the opposing point. If people choose to believe a 7-9 or 8-8 team are not average, then that’s their choice to ignore glaringly obvious statistics and form an opinion based on empirical evidence.
I believe what I showed was a glaringly obvious and unbiased analysis of why Peppers has comparable sack total to other top flight DEs but his total is skewed due to overperformance against underwhelming teams and underperformance against overwhelming teams. A trend no other top flight DE exhibits.
by James Dator on Jul 21, 2009 8:53 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The fact is Pep still got all those sacks.
Pep is not the only player in the league going up “against average or worse teams.” If this was as much of a big deal as some people are making it out to be, then many other players would be doing the same thing ie, padding his stats against sub-par teams. The facts/stats I chose to look at and hold in high regard are:
5th in the league in sacks
tied for 2nd in the league in sacks by a DE
I said it before, and I will probably say it again, it is not easy to get a sack in the NFL even against average to below average OT’s.
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 21, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Have we really gone...
from saying Peppers is one of the top DEs in the league to ‘well… it’s not easy to get a sack against even a below average NFL OT’. No doubt it’s not easy! That’s why these guys are paid tens of millions of dollars to do it! To argue that a guy who is held as one of the best DEs in the NFL should be proud that he can steamroll the Detroit Lions O-line is laughable to me.
If you took the time to look at my statistics you will clearly see that out of the top DEs Peppers is the only one with these padded stats. Every NFL DE plays teams who end up having a .500+ record and a -.500 record (unless the law of averages gets screwy). I don’t believe Pep is making some concious decision
Hmmm… I’m playing the Lions today… looks like I’ll try and get 5 sacks today!
What I am saying is what value is that same 7 year vet who can get 5 sacks against poor competition then get completely shut down in a Broncos game against Ryan Clady…. A ROOKIE, no matter how good a player, still A ROOKIE, and this is supposed to be one of the best DEs in the NFL?
If you choose to value “5th in the league in sacks” and “tied for 2nd in the league in sacks by a DE” then that is your perogative. I however, fear for the Panthers who seem to value them as much as you do, because we’ll see what happens this year against our schedule and we’ll see if we get 2007 Pep or 2008 Pep… my bet is on the former, and if he does play like 2008 Pep then I think him being in another contract year will be a big factor.
In hindsight, should any fan of any team be sitting in the offseason hoping their star defensive player will feel like showing up come September?
by James Dator on Jul 21, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You are right, we will see.
What are your predictions for Pep’s production from this year?
Sacks?
FF?
FR?
Tackles?
PD?
Blocked Kicks?
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 21, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Impossible to determine...
I wont make predictions like that because as we all know a strong schedule can become a weak one when impacted by injuries and other issues. Likewise, a weak one can become strong. Furthermore, Peppers is again in a contract year, and we all know what that can mean in the NFL.
That being said, if the Panther’s strong schedule lives up to its tough expectations I will predict:
Sacks: 6.5
FF: 3
FR: 5
Tackles: 42
PD: 4
Blocked Kicks: 1
Care to make your own predictions?
5 FR would be pretty crazy...
He’s only got 6 for his career, and he’s never had more than 2 in a season. Frankly, I think your numbers are a little lower than he’ll actually end up at (we will see Tampa twice… ;D), but I don’t think they’re unreasonable, either.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the real fun part. Putting ourselves out there by making predictions. Bragging rights baby, that's what it's all about.
Sacks – 12
FF – 4
FR – 2
Tackles – 48
PD – 5 (1 dollar Bob :-)
Blocked Kicks – 1
Will Parker
by WillParker81 on Jul 24, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
rec’d.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 21, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Blocked field goals
Found it on Wikipedia, I know I know, not the most reliable, but I haven’t ever been burnt by one of their articles. Here’s a link, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Peppers It actually says he has eight here. Also, while New Orleans certainly weren’t a great team, neither where they as bad as you make them out to be. Jammal Brown is a great pass blocking OT, beating him up as badly as Pep did is no cakewalk. New Orleans also wasn’t as bad as their record, they lost quite a few games early in the year because Martin Gramatica kicked away their chances. I think that while Peppers underperforms, his potential to be the best alone is worth keeping him. The Panthers FO is smart, smart enough not to overpay or underpay Peppers. Have faith young wombat : )
by Flowing Willow on Jul 23, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions