The Future of the Panthers

by Flowing Willow on Jul 10, 2009 6:51 AM EDT Comment 27 comments

As we all probably know, this season is terribly important for Carolina. Either this season we will make noise and break the one winning, one losing season curse, or we will continue it. My money's on the former, but it has been for a while. Supposing we win the Super Bowl, what will our options be after the season? What if we struggle? Here's the list of free agents whose contract expires after this season (courtesy of Walterfootball.com)

Matt Moore (RFA)

Kenneth Moore (ERFA)

Nick Hayden (ERFA)

C.J. Wilson (RFA)

Qinton Teal (RFA)

As you can see that's quite a list, here are some other notables whose contract expires in two years.

D-Will

Hoover

Jarret

Kalil

Charles Johnson

Kemo

Now that list isn't quite so bad, but Kalil, Johnson, D-Will, and Kemo are integral parts of the team. Read on

First off I can shorten the first list, I don't think Teal or Moore will make the roster. I also think Peppers will sign an extension soon, so you can take him off the list. Now this is where it starts to get tricky and the if's come into play. King will be re-signed if Rosario/Barnidge don't show enough, if either shows they can be as good a blocker or close to that, he's out the door. Salley will be re-signed, he's a top backup. I think Moose will retire, so there will be no need to re-sign him, but that does leave a weakness at WR, more on that later. If Moore shows well in this preseason, we slap a tender on him, same for Wilson if he plays well this season. Depending on how well Moore does, we probably re-sign McCown to be a veteran backup, unless Moore lights the world on fire during preseason. Anderson is just a ST linebacker, he gets the axe and we bring in a replacement in either the draft or free agency. Hayden isn't tendered, and now we get to the really hard part. Vincent, Brayton, Davis, and Marshall, who to keep. Davis takes priority, maybe even the franchise tag, as for Brayton, it all depends on how well he and the rest of the DE's do. If he does well this season, Johnson doesn't improve by a lot or regresses, and Brown is a rookie, Brayton could be re-signed. More likely (and appealing) is Brown does well, like Mark Anderson a few years back, and Johnson improves. Brayton gets the axe, and we have Pep, Brown and Johnson at DE. Now, with Marshall, Vincent and Wilson both entering FA, we get a tricky question. But it gets easier. If Marshall struggles and Wilson improves, we keep Vincent and Wilson. If Duke Robinson plays well in time alloted by injury and Marshall doesn't struggle like last year, we hedge our bets on the youngster and send Vincent packing. I think the latter happens, and if so, here are our losses.

Moose (retired)

Moore

Brayton

Hayden (not tendered as an ERFA)

Anderson

Teal

Vincent

Now lets look at our draft needs

#1 DT

Kemo is a free agent next season, and neither him nor Lewis are getting younger. This needs to be addressed soon. Irvin was a decent player in rotation, but we need a starter, someone like Kris Jenkins, without the attitude.

#2 WR

Jarret and Carter, the two prime candidates to replace Moose, have never started before in the NFL. An insurance policy is needed.

#3 OLB

Diggs is solid, but could be upgraded, as I think he will be cut sometime in the next two years. Either Connor or Johnson will step in, or someone we draft or sign will. We need a St linebacker anyway, so this is a need.

#4 QB

Jake isn't getting any younger. The FO will probably pick a developmental prospect late in the draft in case either of the 3 backups doesn't work out.

Now I realize it is entirely too early to do a mock, but here are my rough predictions

#1 Terrence Cody, DT Alabama

Carolina trades back into the late first, nabbing a monstruous DT to replace Kemo in stuffing the run.

#2 Mark Herzlich, OLB BC

With their second round pick, Carolina picks up Mark Herzlich, who I think will fall due to the cancer in his leg. He won't be the first Panthers linebacker with a serious illness, and look how the others turned out.

#3 DE/DT Will Tuakafu, Oregon

Another Duck, Tuakafu provides a solid inside rotation that can stop the run and collapse the pocket, ideally.

#4 Jacoby Ford, WR Clemson

With their next pick in the fifth round after trading their fourth rounder away for Cody, the Panthers nab Ford, a burner they hope can eventually replace Smith.

With their two seventh rounders, the Panthers nab a guard for depth, and QB Rusty Smith from FAU to develop as hopefully a good backup later on down the road.

Now keep in mind, a lot will change between now and when these events take place. So take this with a grain of salt, maybe two, and enjoy. : )

The content of these posts are those of the person/idiot making the post only

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whoa Willow, Nice post

You were reading my mind because I was just thinking of posting on those players in contract years. Of that list there is only one or two guys I think the Panthers would definitely try to resign early, Richard Marshall and Thomas Davis. The rest might be playing out there last season in Carolina unless they are willing to accept a Panthers somewhat low-ball offer. For example: Salley, King, Brayton and Vincent.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jul 10, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice post it was informative

by Heyward is the next crime dog on Jul 10, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Looking at that list, here are the guys I think we won't have a capable replacement for:

And when I say capable, I mean somebody who could step in and be an average or better starter league-wide, not necessarily that they could play to their predecessor’s level immediately:
McCown+Moore (These are the only two QBs on the roster who are really worthy of 53-man roster spots. I hope we resign McCown, but as of right now, I wouldn’t feel good about going into ’10 with Moore or Cantwell as our #2. Moore, obviously, will have another shot in the preseason, but he was pretty terrible last year.)

Muhammad (I haven’t seen anything thus far to tell me Jarrett or anybody else can step in as the #2 next year.)

Marshall+Wilson (Wilson can probably be retained with an original-compensation tender unless he blows up as the nickel this year, but we could still probably keep him with a second-round tender like we gave to King in that instance. Still, given his current place on the depth chart, I don’t want Sherrod Martin thrust into the starting lineup as soon as next year if they’re not even ready to give him the nickel now.

In two years, Kalil is the only guy I don’t see us being able to replace with somebody on the roster now. He’s a great player and we need to lock him up.

So, of those guys, here are the order in which I’d try to lock them up.
Kalil: He’ll be a Pro Bowl caliber center for years, and we don’t have anybody else on the roster who’s ever played a snap at the position.

McCown: The odds of him coming back will obviously depend on who else offers him and whether anybody thinks
he can fight for their starting job. Still, he’s got tons of starting experience and I think he could thrive in this system as Jake did.

Marshall: I’m not pushing for this signing to happen before we see what he does this year. He really struggled last year down the stretch. But if he shows well in the first 4-8 games, I’d be doing everything I could to solidify that position. Gamble can shut down his man all he wants, but it doesn’t matter if the guy across from him is getting burned on a regular basis.

Muhammad: I think it’s pretty likely he retires after this year, but I think he’s a Panther until he retires regardless.

As for Thomas Davis, I just don’t think he’s worth breaking the bank on, and Dan Connor should be able to step into the starting lineup if he leaves. If he’s only asking for a reasonable contract, I’m certainly not opposed to having him back, but my personal thought is that he’ll end up like a string of Panthers defenders who have left to be overpaid and never really performed like they did here (D. Grant, Witherspoon, McCree, etc.)

I also don’t know if I see Peppers being extended, but I think we could get by with Johnson or Brown moving into the lineup as his replacement, in addition to whatever reinforcements we could buy with his cap number freed up. If it came down to him leaving, though, I think we’d definitely need to make keeping Charles Johnson a priority. As much as we like to rotate at that position, we can’t have a #3 the caliber of Hilee Taylor.

I agree with your thoughts on King and Salley.

The problem with Moore as an RFA is that we’ll have to spend $1.5 mil or more to actually protect him and get any compensation, since he was undrafted. You don’t really want to spend that much on him unless you’re really certain he can be a solid #2.

As for DT, I agree we’d need to improve our depth there over the next couple of years, but I think Irvin-Lewis is good enough at DT as of ’10.

Finally, I don’t know how your theoretical trade effects us, but these are our current picks for next year. It is possible, though, that we pick up a mid-to-late-rounder as a compensatory pick because of our losses and lack of gains in FA.:
2
3
4
5
6
6 (extra is from the trade down with Oakland this year)
7 (could be given up if JJ Jansen wins the LS job.)

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow, that’s just a lot of text. Normally when I read this much information I have to buy a subscription or have a library card.

I am not really into trying to determine what will happen two years from now because so much can change in that time span. I feel dumb even commenting on free agents after this year because so much depends on how players perform this upcoming year. Here’s my two cents…

Peppers: Depending on how Brown and Johnson look this year and what he wants on the free agent market, and if he is not franchised again, I don’t know if they will re-sign him. Clearly, we can’t replace his production with one person but for his age and how much he may want, I am not sure we could afford to re-sign him. I don’t think anyone knows what the Panthers are going to do with him. I would hope Brown could at least pick up some slack of Peppers leaves.

Jeff King: again, depending on what the other TE do this year, but I see him being re-signed. I would think we could match his production but the Panthers won’t try to.

Thomas Davis: I like Thomas Davis in theory, but I have a feeling he is going to get a lot of money and his production could be matched by another player on the roster like Dan Connor. I agree with MP on that. There is no way in heck I franchise tag him though. Unless he has a monster contract year, I don’t see the reasoning behind that. For me, he is a guy whose rep on the open market is going to exceed what he deserves.

McCown/Moore: One at a minimum will be need to be re-signed. I think it will be McCown.

Moose: If he doesn’t retire and his production doesn’t plummet, I can see him signing on for one more year here in Carolina. I would rather the Panthers move on with better receivers but there are really no options available on the current roster. We couldn’t at this point replace his production, which I am not sure is more a tribute to him or how poorly the Panthers have done at drafting the WR position of late.

Vincent: I would like to see Duke Robinson take this spot. Since Vincent will probably be injured at some point this year, I think we will see what Robinson or Bernadeu can do this year and then can make a decision. He’s a good run blocker but I would think with another year’s experience he can be replaced.

Brayton: If we keep Peppers I would say he is gone at that point because Brown should be able to move into the starting lineup at that point. If Brayton wants to sign for backup money, then I would be for keeping him, which he may very well do. I would like to think we could survive without his production. He is versatile though.

Hayden: I need to see more of him and we will get a chance this year, as of now.

Anderson: He’s just a guy. I would be surprised if the Panthers could not find someone in the draft who can play ST. He’s a good back up…which I guess is a compliment.

Marshall/Wilson: Based on last year, I would say either let him leave as a free agent or see what type of numbers he is looking for and go from there. If Wilson goes, I can’t help but think re-signing Wilson would be a priority unless the Panthers are looking to go the draft or FA route to replace Marshall. I don’t think Wilson is at the point he can replace Marshall, at least from what I have seen or heard about him. I also don’t feel comfortable giving Martin if he can’t win the nickel position.

Salley: Just a back up guy for me. Don’t re-sign him if there is anything better, but I don’t know there will be. So the Panthers will probably re-sign him.

by bengoodfella on Jul 10, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

King shouldn't cost much.

I’d like him back, too. Even if he’s eventually replaced as the starter, he can still be a valuable contributor as the #2 (like Mangum was for many years.)

I’m with you on Vincent. He’s cheap, and if he comes close to the minimum, I wouldn’t mind having him back, but I think Vincent and Bernardeau could both easiliy step in by ’10.

I too, think it’s too early to have our minds made up on Hayden. He was drafted as basically a developmental prospect, so we shouldn’t be surprised he didn’t light the world on fire last year.

I like Salley because I think he’s the only S on the roster who could actually step in as a starter and not collapse at this point. In a league where every backup is just a play away, that’s important.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I personally would love to see King as a #2. I know a lot of people want a TE that will stretch the field and all of that wonderful stuff but it is going to be more important while John Fox is the head coach for the TE to block well and King does that.

I am actually going to be disappointed if one of those guys are not able to step up at some point by ’10. I would like to have Vincent back cheap but I am not holding my breath it will happen.

I will be interested to see what Hayden can do this upcoming year because I would think unless the Panthers sign another DT before TC he is going to see some snaps. I actually don’t care that he may not set the world on fire, I would just like to see him show signs he could be a valuable part of a rotation, not even a starter and that would be enough justification for the Panthers to resign him.

Salley is ok for me. It is true he is the one safety on the roster and we would feel somewhat comfortable with it, plus we don’t currently need a starter, so I could see him being resigned.

I know this is boring really, but I am more interested to see what happens with Rhys Lloyd. I feel like roster spots are going to be pretty tight, can the Panthers afford the luxury of keeping him on the roster? Can they afford to not keep him on the roster, because he gave the team a true advantage in field position last year.

by bengoodfella on Jul 10, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Lloyd's roster spot is pretty well locked up.

To me, I was more surprised they extended Kasay so far out without giving him a shot at the PK job. Neither Baker or Kasay are very good at kickoffs, so we’re either going to struggle in that department or we’re going to have to carry somebody extra.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I bet we get a 4th round comp pick for Hangartner

Maybe a 7th for Omiyale. I think those two were our only FA losses that might result in comp picks. Maybe Seward as well?

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jul 14, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My best guesses:

Compensatory picks are based mostly on average annual salary. A guy on KFFL (AdamJT13) has done pretty extensive studies of it:

Doubt Seward will. He probably signed a very cheap contract, and he won’t see many snaps.

The least expensive compensated player was Terry Cousin, who signed a deal at about $1.1 mil a year.

Omiyale, however, is probably looking like a pretty solid 6th based on last year’s numbers. He went for $2.875 mil annually, which is just short of what Julius Jones got when he netted the Cowboys a 6th last year, and more than what we paid to Landon Johnson, which netted the Bengals a 6th themselves.

Unfortunately, Hang is probably on the 6/7 edge. He actually got less annually than Omiyale, but I guess he’s probably more likely to get a lot of starts and snaps, which are also used in the calculations.

So While we’ll probably get a pick for each of those guys, it probably won’t be better than a 6th for either.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 14, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cool, thanks for the leg work.

Will Parker

by WillParker81 on Jul 15, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two 6th's?

There are always gems late in the draft if you can just pick them.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jul 16, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely.

Our ‘05 6th-round class of Joe Berger and Jovan Haye has been pretty successful at times, although unfortunately it didn’t happen with us. Keith Hinrich, Dee Brown, and Jeno James are another few that stuck around in the League for a bit.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thomas Davis....

We could always sign him to a good deal and attempt to trade him. He’s still a young player, easily worth a 2nd rounder

"Once again the trowsers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn

by Revshawn on Jul 10, 2009 10:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thomas Davis's stats last year...

He started all 16 games, and racked up 92 solo tackles to go with 21 assists, while playing next to Beason. He also collected 3.5 sacks and six PD’s, although unfortunately he was plagued by the hands of stone so common among our defense last season. : ( No picks. However, two forced fumbles, one recovered. I’d say that is a pretty valuable part to our defense. I don’t want Davis to end up like Spoon, great here, good somewhere else, but leaving us in a hole. We searched for a while to find a replacement for Spoon, lets not make the same mistake with Davis. Also, for a lot of these guys, their future here depends on how they or others perform during the season. Example: Marshall. If he struggles, we may decide he is not worth keeping and hand the reigns to either Martin or Wilson, but if he does play well, we may not have room to re-sign Vincent, McCown, Salley, Brayton, etc.

by Flowing Willow on Jul 11, 2009 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personally...

I feel like Vincent, McCown, Salley, and Brayton are all replaceable with other serviceable veterans via free agency. In other words, I don’t see them as the type of players Fox and Hurney hold as the core nucleus of the team. That’s what they always try and protect. I do, however, believe they view Thomas Davis as part of that core nucleus. And I would expect them to try and re-sign him. Now, if he’s demanding too much money and can get it on the open market, maybe they cut him loose and try and restock that position. However, I doubt that will happen.

Just my two-cents,
—Neil

by NSpicer on Jul 11, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

by Heyward is the next crime dog on Jul 11, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, he's a good player...

But you can’t pay good players great money, particularly when you have a younger, cheaper player who was drafted high and should be able to be slotted in (Connor.) That’s the fastest way to cap hell for an uncompetitive team.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 11, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personally I wouldn't want to see Connor at weakside linebacker

I don’t think he is athletic enough to maximize the position like Davis does. Davis will probably sign a deal like Karlos Dansby will. Also, if Davis leaves, and Diggs gets old, all of a sudden we are thin at linebacker, and I don’t want to go back to those days.

by Flowing Willow on Jul 12, 2009 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say those moves would make us thin..

They’d just bring us back to average. With six LBs drafted in the first three rounds, we’ve pretty much got the deepest LB corps in the league.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 12, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, there's a chance we could get some value for him.

But it’s pretty rare that a team works out an extension with a player and then trades him. The extension talks and agreement usually come with the new team (i.e. Roy Williams and the Cowboys.)

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 11, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice post. Interesting thoughts.

I think Pep will end up signing with us long-term. Of the remaining list for next year, I see Vincent, King and Muhammed as cost effective players at their positions.

Marshall and Brayton could be re-signed depending on their production this season and asking price.

I agree with most that Davis will probably be to expensive, especially when considering that we will eventually need to lock down Beason.

Will Parker

by WillParker81 on Jul 13, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree w/ post but only to a certain extent !!

Okay I agree with you on alot of Fronts, but their is no way we lose Matt Moore. McCown will be gone after this season unless he takes a huge paycut, which he will not do. Moore is the guy for our team, an before Delhomme contract is up he will take over as the starter. Secondly, neither Jarrett or J. Carter are ready to be #2 WR in the NFL this season an probably not the next unless Jarrett comes out of nowhere to light it up this year which seems unlikely givene his history in the NFL. All in all good post an I agree with most of it, just a few things seem a bit off.

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Jul 13, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What exactly has Moore done to show he can be a capable NFL starter?

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 13, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He played okay in a couple wins

He looked rough at times and didn’t necessarily shine. Okay, I’m making an argument, just maybe not a good one ;)

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jul 16, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha...

I mean, I want the kid to succeed, but I never understood why people were clamoring for him to replace Delhomme because he led us to wins against a pair of playoff teams that had already sewn up their divisions and had nothing to play for.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

Plus, the Seattle game we only put up 13 points. The only TD came on a drive with just over a minute remaining in the game when we ran three straight running plays and D-will broke a TD run. It’s not like our offense won us the game.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Moore alot. He’s easy to root for. I really hope he does well but never understood our fans fascination with him at the time (wanting him over Jake).

Although when I look back on it, I remember the same amount (if not more) of clammoring for Chris Weinke and David Carr……so I guess I’m not surprised when I think about it.

by R-F on Jul 19, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs