Is Peppers Return to Carolina a Worst Case Scenario?

by Jaxon on Mar 6, 2009 11:44 AM EST

I was on the verge of writing another "Postulating Where Peppers Will Land" post, this time focusing on Denver as a couple of my readers have suggested. Yet it is complete speculation at this point and honestly it's getting old. No other bloggers want to talk about signing Peppers because of the high price tag and the fact the topic has already been beaten to death on their respective sites.

A few writers out there though think the Panthers should approach Denver about a trade for QB Jay Cutler. I'm pretty convinced there is no way they would trade him. Why would they trade a 25 year old 1^st round pick that played well last season? I think the Broncos trying to get Matt Cassell was simply the new HC wanting to get a QB he is familiar with and got ratted out by someone in the Patriots organization. Funny that Cassell ended up in KC so now the Broncos will be able to compare the 2 QB's twice a season going forward. So it seems the final word in Denver now is that Cutler will not be traded. I guess you can believe it or not but I'm thinking they are definitely keeping him.

So would the Broncos we interested in trading picks for Peppers? I have no idea at this point but I imagine Mr. Julius Peppers is going through a bit of a reality check at this point. Did he think a deal would have been done by now? I bet he did. With most of the big FA names having settled on a deal cap space is drying up. I imagine Peppers agent is telling him that as the draft approaches the Panthers will get desperate and drop his asking price. I'm thinking the Panthers are prepared to pay the franchise tender as they have been saying. If Peppers sticks to his guns as well he will have no other choice but to play for Carolina or sit out the season. That seems drastic but I wouldn't put it past him. Seriously though, would he actually turn down $16.7M to sit on his principles? I'm thinking no way.

We do need to consider the worst case scenario though Panther fans and that is Pep coming back for the cap killing number of $16.7M. The Panthers would still need to clear a little space to sign some depth on the offensive line and to sign the five draft picks we select in April. With pick numbers #59, 93, 124, 155, & 189 I doubt any of them would crack the starting line-up. So essentially the Panthers would start the 2009 season with the same team as 2008, the only significant differences being the depth on the offensive and defensive lines.

The obvious move to clear the needed space is to trade or cut CB Ken Lucas. I imagine Richard Marshall is ready to step up so that is doable. So how would I feel about our chances of repeating 2008 in 2009? Given how tough our 2009 schedule is (which I discussed here), not too good.

The only positive is that none of the other NFC South teams have done much in free agency as well. They seem to be standing on what they have as well so that might bode well for the division champ Panthers. I think we can all agree that the NFC South will not shine as brightly as it did last season given the division match-ups and forecasted down year for the Bucs. Ten wins will probably win the division outright I bet. So is Peppers staying our worst case scenario? Honestly that's not a bad scenario to live with.

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Comments

Except I will be forced to boo him when they announce the starting D

The crowd wont be saying Juuuuuuuuuuuulius, thats a lot of money and hard feelings. I am a fan of the team, he is not .

by parkershawn2001 on Mar 6, 2009 1:35 PM EST reply actions

I bet he does get booed

Welcome to the blog Shawn.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Mar 6, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

I am very forgiving

but if Peppers won’t sign a long term deal or consent to being traded somewhere, then takes up $16 million in salary cap room, I don’t see how he won’t be booed.

Of course if it happens that he plays with no long term deal and a $16 million cap hit, it is as much Hurney and Fox’s fault as his because they either need to get a deal or a trade done before that time.

by bengoodfella on Mar 6, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

good point

Why not make a trade last year when he wouldn’t sign the long term deal? Peppers put the writing on the wall. I guess his value wasn’t very good coming off that 2.5 sack season might be one reason. If they can’t work a trade now are they going to franchise him again and pay him $20M next season? Its quite a pickle.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Mar 6, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

No real improvements...

so far this year. Since they lost depth at offensive line, they have regressed at this point. I suppose there is hope that some of the players that were on IR or rookies last year will become playmakers this year. It’s possible. The panthers could also work some magic at the draft to get a higher pick or trade JP at that point. That may proviode a little more hope for the 09 season. Something has to be done …especially on defense (other than changing the dc).

by Davejinxer on Mar 6, 2009 3:37 PM EST reply actions

The Panthers love the draft day trade

They might just dangle him as the first round progresses.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Mar 6, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

Panthers will have a great 2009 season.

I believe that the NFC south will be the best divison in the NFC. The Giants will take the east, 49s for the west, Green Bay for the north, and Carolina again in the south. Even if we keep Peppers I think with Ron Meeks coming in and a change of defense Peppers will stay in Carolina and sign before training camp. Our real problem is the secondary, they gave up to many passing yards. As far as Jake goes, he is our QB and we should support him. We lost to ARI because of the coachs, we gave up on our running to early, if we played like we did all year we would be in the super bowl.

by mustangman on Mar 6, 2009 5:34 PM EST reply actions

Our problem

is not the secondary. Given how much time Warner had, anyone could’ve burnt our secondary. The problem was the horrible pass rush… and the D-line might need a overhaul if Meeks plans on getting pressure just with the front 4. (I like Jerry/Hood, but if we can’t get them at #59, DE Paul Kruger might be a worthwhile pick).

Agreed on the coaching costing us the game.

As for the NFC South… it’ll be tough. Tough division, as you mentioned. Plus we have to play the AFC East (no cake-walk) and NFC East (even harder), and then ’Zona & Minny. Getting a successful pass rush is going to be huge.

Jazzardous Materials
3rd Down & Full Count

by UtesFan89 on Mar 6, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

It's the pass rush & more

I think the problems with the Panther’s pass defense is a combination of the pass rush, secondary, and their zone defense. There were plenty of times when the Panthers had a good pass rush on Warner, Rodgers, Ryan, Brees and other QBs and they were still able to complete their passes with relative ease. I believe this was caused by the secondary & zone coverage too. There were too many soft spots in their zone coverage or where mismatches were caused by their zone coverage. The Cards purposely had Fitz & Boldin line up at different spots and run different routes so they could take advantage of their zone coverage with its ability to give mismatches by having a LBer either covering Fitz or Boldin.

With the secondary, it wasn’t just Lucas whose play wore down as the season went on. Marshall took a step backwards with coverage and tackles, hopefully this was a junior slump instead of a sophomore slump and that he’ll rebound this coming season. While I think Gamble has good speed and is great at sticking with a receiver, he needs to turn his head around more often. Too many times Gamble was in great position, but his receiver still made a catch because Gamble failed to either knock the ball away or just get his hand in there to break it up. If he would turn his head around once in a while it would help him to make the play. I’m not expecting him to go for an interception every time, but just break up the pass rather than watch the receiver catch it right in front of him.

by meanoreno on Mar 6, 2009 8:14 PM EST reply actions

110% agree

I am completely with you on the soft zone coverage problem and also how teams were able to exploit weak spots in the zone coverage to create mismatches. I can recall so many times after a game players in the secondary mentioning they had a miscommunication and I am not sure if that is because of a rookie safety or the players were just not getting on the same page or it was because the players screwed up and did not want to say it.

I don’t think Lucas is as done as everyone thinks he is, because teams targeted Gamble and Marshall a lot towards the end of the year as well. I know I have said this repeatedly on this site, but what was said just above about Gamble letting the receiver catch the ball in front of him is very correct. I realize the Panthers are number #1 in turnovers in the NFL since John Fox took over but last year there were so many times that our secondary did not attack the ball and just let the receiver catch it. This was the partial reason for a lack of pass interference calls, because our players were not in position to be near the receiver and interfere. I felt like our secondary defensive scheme was very passive with giving the receivers too large of a cushion. I realize you don’t want receivers blowing by your corners but if the Panthers like Gamble so much to give him a huge contract, why not put him in a position where he can succeed and make a play on the ball? If it was a scheme issue, I hope they fix it and if is a personnel problem then I hope this gets corrected as well. I don’t want the secondary trying to intercept every pass but to see them in position to make a play rather than just tackling the receiver after the ball is what I want.

by bengoodfella on Mar 7, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

I would agree that our secondary rarely made a quick play on the ball

I recall a couple on the short outs but usually the opposing QB only needs to be patient and hit his spots. That is a Cover 2 defense and you need good tacklers and personnel with good instincts. Lucas may well be on the roster next season. Fox may choose instead to draft young players up front that can get pressure.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Mar 7, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

I hear you Bengoodfella

…and agree. I myself don’t think it’s that good of an idea to trade Lucas, they would probably only get a low pick, and I certainly don’t think it’s a good idea to cut him for nothing. I"ve read by getting rid of Lucas it would save 2.37 million against the cap, the Panthers will still have to pay him his guaraanteed money (bonus money). Getting rid of Lucas would most likely leave a void at the CB position, they couldn’t find another CB of Lucas’ caliber for 2.37 million. I know they are keen on C.J. Wilson, but they didn’t act like he was ready to play the nickel and I would be surprised if he was.

“As for Lucas, he still could be traded but if there are no takers look for the team to release him down the road. That would free up $2.37 million in salary cap room.”
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/4809692/Carolina-Panthers-Inside-Slant?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=5

The whole secondary can improve on last seasons performance with keeping the same players, they may want to switch Marshall and Lucas, but I’d wait to see how they perform in camp first. In my last post where I talked about the secondary I forgot to mention the safeties. I like Godfrey and believe he did a fair job at FS considering it was his rookie season. With more experience I believe he’ll perform even better. He has the talent. I also like Harris as a SS, he’s solid against the run, but not much support against the pass. I would like Harris even more if this coming season he plays like he did the first season with the Panthers.

                                                    Harris’ first two seasons
                 Tackles Sacks Interceptions Misc.
      Solo Ast Total Sack YdsL Int Yds InTD DefTD FFum PD Sfty
07) 77 20 97 0 0 1 30 0 0 8 5 0
08) 60 10 70 0 0 1 16 0 0 2 3 0

As you can see by the numbers above, Hariss didn’t have as good of season as he did in his first year with the Panthers. I know it’s hard to match those 8 fumbles he received in his first season, but even half of that would have been nice. It wasn’t just Harris who didn’t have as good of season, as everyone knows Lucas too, but also Marshall.

                                                     Marshall’s first three seasons
                 Tackles Sacks Interceptions Misc.
      Solo Ast Total Sack YdsL Int Yds InTd DefTD FFum PD Sfty
06) 70 13 83 1 4 3 59 1 1 2 15 0
07) 79 9 88 1 14 3 107 1 1 0 11 0
08) 68 7 75 2 16 1 11 0 0 0 4 0

IMO the most concerning and the biggest area of drop-off with Marshall is his pass coverage. His tacles were slightly down, but his passes defensed were down by 8 from the year before and down by 11 from his first season. His interceptions were also by down by 2, but that will happen if he’s not defending the pass as well.

There was really no excuse for so many in the secondary to be playing worse than the year before, ie. Lucas, Harris, and Marshall considering the pass rush was definitely better last season than it was the year before when Peppers only had 2.5 sacks. Some times the numbers could be down when their playing hasn’t declined. It could be not as many opportunities or teams aren’t passing their way as much as the year before etc.., but in this case from watching, I think it was their playing that declined. I thought maybe it was their secondary coach that Fox hired from the Giants last year. If it was, he’s gone now. I believe their secondary, as a whole, has plenty of talent and could be top notch and play like it too, especially now that Godfrey has more experience.

by meanoreno on Mar 8, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

A few topics to address

1. I absolutely do not understand booing Pep. Lets say he is still on the team when the season starts and Panther fans boo him, please tell me what that will accomplish. He has played well for us, sometimes even great. He has not been a problem in the locker room. He has not been arrested. People have a problem with how talented he is and they do not understand why he does not have 43 sacks, 15 forced fumbles, 10 INT’s, 200 tackles, etc each year. The last point was pure sarcasm, but really, BE REALISTIC. He is playing against guys who get paid too. I could go on, but I will leave it at that.

2. The game against the Cards was heart breaking and I can say that I was there to see it first hand from the beginning to the end. I agree with most of what has been said already. Obviously we all know about the play of Jake. Our scheme on defense was the definition of absurd (wildly unreasonable, illogical or inappropriate). Our pass rush and secondary also did not make plays when the chance presented itself. Our offense was not running smoothly (pun intended). Also the Cards showed up and played great. I think all of these issues lead to the result.

3. 2009 outlook cannot really be discussed yet. We have no idea what will happen with Pep. We do not know who we will draft or sign (if any). We are not sure if Lucas will still be around. We also do not know about injuries to the Panthers or other teams (Brady game 1 2008 ring a bell). With all that said, I think we have a great shot next year. Another year with the same OL. Then combine that with Stew training in the off-season with DeAngelo. Talk about scary potential. Jake, Smitty and Moose I believe will come back on fire (maybe even Jarrett?). Fox is a defensive coach and will get our guys better, whoever they may be. Pep (IF here), Beason, Gamble, and Harris, are potential Pro Bowlers. Then add in the development of Godfrey, Brayton, Johnson, TD, Conner, Marshall and Lucas (IF here). I agree we still need DL/OL/CB depth. That’s what the draft is for. We have 5 draft picks that could come out to 2 DL, 2 OL and 1 CB.

Will Parker

by WillParker81 on Mar 6, 2009 9:34 PM EST reply actions

Regarding point 1

I completely agree, it would be a shame to boo him.

While I believe the whole thing could have been handled better I would be happy to have him back for another season. Of course as I’ve said before I wouldn’t mind the draft picks that would come along with trading him.

by LittleKing on Mar 6, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions