Carolina Panthers’ Hump Day Prognostication (New England Patriots edition)
by James The Aussie on Dec 9, 2009 9:34 AM EST
59 comments
Good morning Panther faithful and happy hump day! This Sunday's game between the Carolina Panthers (5-7) and the New England Patriots (7-5) proves to be one of the biggest tests of the Panther's season. The Patriots may be 7-5, but most agree they're far more dangerous than their record shows, meanwhile, the Panthers are 5-7, but like the Patriots most agree that they have the potential to be far more dangerous than their 5 wins suggest.
This 2009 Pats team is not the same as previous iterations. While still dangerous in every phase of the game they're not nearly the juggernaut in every phase that we've seen during their dynasty run. This leaves the door slightly open for Matt Moore and the Carolina Panthers to press the advantage. So, how do we match up against the Pats? Find out:
After the jump...
New England run offense vs. Carolina run defense
The Patriots run offense isn't quite an afterthought, but it's not a focal point of their offense. The Pats have only run the ball 337 compared to 473 passing attempts. This bodes well for a Carolina Panther defense which has struggled against the run, especially against strong North-South runners. New England have a strong back in Lawrence Maroney, but he's never really reached his full potential. They also feature Kevin Faulk, a NE institution who is as reliable as the day is long.
The Pats are 16th in the NFL running the ball, and the Panthers' run defense is 23rd in the league, despite this disparity I think it'll be pretty evenly matched on Sunday as New England won't run the ball very much.
Edge: Push
KEY MATCHUP: New England pass offense vs. Carolina pass defense
This is the area the Patriots scare me. They're 2nd in the NFL in passing, and their pass offense is a bonafide monster. This is week 13 and not only to the Pats have two 1,000 yard receivers in Randy Moss and Wes Welker; they're also no.1 and no.2 in the league respectively. Brady might not have all the physical tools you want in a QB, but he has every single intangible and then some. Brady is completing over 65% of his passes, and he won't make the mistakes Josh Freeman made last week. If our corners struggle with Antonio Bryant, there's no telling how they will deal with Moss and Welker. I don't see the pass defense hanging with New England's attack this week.
Edge: New England
Carolina run offense vs. New England run defense
The Carolina Panthers should have DeAngelo Williams back this week and he and Stewart should give the Pats a little dose of Double Trouble. Stewart proved last week that he can carry the load when needed, and I have no doubt he would have had a better day with an effective offensive line. The Panthers' rushing attack hinges on the ability of the offense line to get some push and open some holes, which they haven't been doing effectively enough lately. Despite all this the Panthers are 3rd in the NFL in rushing, the Pats are 16th in run defense and I think Carolina will dominate the ground in this area.
Edge: Carolina
Carolina pass offense vs. New England pass defense
The Matt Moore era has officially begun. While Moore was an effective game manager against the Buccaneers, he certainly didn't set the world on fire. While the Patriots are a statistically worse pass defense than Tampa Bay's (13th compared to 11th) they do have all their players healthy whereas TB was without their no.1 corner. The Bucs had 11 interceptions on the season, the Pats have 14. This will be a much greater test for Moore on every level. Steve Smith has the talent to take over his opposite number, but ultimately I'm not sure a young QB in Moore will be able to handle the Patriots secondary.
The Patriots also feature a defense that pressures the quarterback from a lot of different angles. They have 8 different players who have recorded sacks, and 6 players who have recorded multiple sacks. They will throw a lot of different looks at the Panthers offense and likely show a lot of exotic blitz packages. I don't know if our piecemeal offense line can hang.
Edge: New England
Special Teams
We're improving, but we're still terrible. The Panthers are allowing almost 30 yards per KR and 13.1 per PR. The Pats have Wes Welker returning punts, and that's a dangerous prospect.
Edge: New England
Coaching
Love him, or hate him- Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in the history of the NFL. Despite losing an unheard of amount of assistants and coordinators over the years to other teams he still manages to make the Pats compete each and every week. His game plans are also second to none. The Panthers' coaching may be getting better, but it's still a far cry from the Patriots' staff.
Edge: New England
Final Summary
This is another one of those ‘intangible' games. On paper, the Pats will tear us apart. However, like we proved against the Saints these Carolina Panthers will rise to the occasion. It's easy to be intimidated by Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker; but this is a Panther team not easily intimidated. I think it's going to be a very, very hard fought game with the Panthers showing more fight than people previously thought.
This game has all the makings of an upset shocker, especially with DeAngelo Williams back in the offense. If Matt Moore can provide some offense and the red zone defense show what they're made of I think this is a winnable game.
Carolina Panthers 13 - New England Patriots 10
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After watching Antonio Bryant carve us up...
I fear that Moss and Welker will be the biggest danger to our chances at victory. We are going to have to sell out a lot against the pass, and the D-Line is going to need to get in there and lay the wood on Brady.
I'm either amazingly stupid and nieve or my wife spiked my coffee this morning and I'm drunk
I voted for us to win. Although I do wish my wife spiked my coffee…
C'mon man! I love the Panthers BUT......
The Patriots are 6-0 at home. they are seriously in the playoff hunt.
We are depleted from a personnel standpoint.
Brady is going to pick out our weakest component of our passing game (Marshall) and exploit it.
We are an offense off of life support in our passing game. Moore still on a learning curve.
I hope I am wrong on this, but i don’t think so. i have to be honest with myself.
I did it once this season and hated myself for doing it:
I just can’t pick against the Panthers.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James The Aussie on Dec 9, 2009 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
I'm afraid I picked the Pats too...
We seem to do really well against the pass when the opposing team uses screens and dump passes (NO does a LOT of this) but we have some vulnerability deep…
And the Pats are pretty good at going deep. I just have a bad feeling Marshall is going to get eaten alive; he did not look good at all last week IMO and I think it’s going to kill us.
The deciding factor in this game I believe is Moore. If he can give us some productivity through the air, enough to ease it up for Double Trouble, we should be able to control the ball.
Keeping the ball away from New England is paramount. Just not feeling good about our chances of doing it…
by GuyIncognito on Dec 9, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Statistically...
Marshall has been our strongest player in terms of coverage for a majority of the season. On the other hand, Gamble has been the weakest.
If we can keep Marshall from being out sized in his match ups he should perform well as usual.
Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!
Love it : )
It does seem like every time we’re picked to win across the board we get rolled.
by GuyIncognito on Dec 9, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Multimillionaires get to dress and groom themselves however they want.
True story: first time I went to NYC, on my first subway ride no less, there was a guy sitting in the corner with his pants around his ankles, his bare ass on the seat. He had a heavy coat on that covered his “bits”. He was staring at and talking to his reflection in the window. And he looked, no kidding, EXACTLY like Randy Moss in the picture at the top of this article.
Good times. Good times.
by r3 on Dec 9, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
dwayne jarret could grow hair on every single orifice
if he caught like moss, then i’d take him
Special Teams: "We're improving, but we're still terrible."
That’s the damned truth.
What’s the over/under on New England special teams touchdowns this week? I’m setting the line at 1.5.
I’ll be taking bets out in the hallway.
More of a passing attack from the Panthers...
would be nice this weekend, if nothing else but for entertainment purposes. Foxball has been boring me to tears and the way the league protects the quarterback and the way the refs hand out pass interference penalties it may be worth it.
I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it.
I've predicted Gary Barnidge to catch a deep ball every other week - might as well again.
I look for Moore to air it out 3-4 times.
"the way the refs hand out pass interference penalties it may be worth it."
Holy cow, that Monday night game was unbelievable
Hey, I'll watch Foxball all day long
as long as we get the win.
by Flowing Willow on Dec 10, 2009 7:02 AM EST up reply actions
I picked the Panthers
…because I just can’t pick against my team. It’s going to be a rough game though. I highly doubt we’ll see anything near the Pats team that the Saints played. The Pats will be very hungry for a win against a 5-7 Panthers team – that’s for sure. Especially given their loss last week.
Brady/Moss/Welker are going to exploit all the soft areas in our pass-defense. As much as Bryant caught passes at-will last week, we can expect more of the same from the Pats. Unless, of course, we get a masterful pass rush and don’t allow Brady time to get set. Also, what would probably help, is if our CBs jammed the WRs at the line once in a while.
I’ve said it before – but it bears bringing up again, do our CBs give so much space to the opposing WRs because they’re scared of being beat down the field?
We're very vulnerable to Welker's slant routes.
He’s excellent at finding the spaces in zone defenses.
I'm officially picking the Panthers...
but unofficially fearing we’re headed into a Hornet’s Nest on Sunday. Nontheless, I can’t wait for Sunday’s game, I’m taking the wife & kids to Whelihan’s (local Philly sports bar) for the game and we will rock that place with some Carolina Panther pride.
Any given Sunday baby. It can be done.
+10000000000000
Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!
13-10? I'm assuming this is the first quarter score?
Well, you’ve got to love James the Aussie. Our man just doesn’t pick against the Panthers. It’s another reason why I love Cat Scratch Reader so much.
But if we’re going to win, and I don’t think that we will, it’ll be more like 24-23 at the least.
Keys to Panthers O Vs. the Pats D
1st downs – You’ve got to run the ball. Give it to Williams and he’ll get you 3-5 yards at least, and sometimes more. (And at least a few times, MUCH more). That’ll set up a shorter conversion for Matt Moore on 2nd and 3rd. The Pats Run D is not that good. Smash them in the mouth. Tell our offensive lineman that the 1st down belongs to them.
2nd downs – If we’re consistent on 1st downs (and I’m not against a play-action every once in a while on 1st downs), then on 2nd downs, we’ve got a lot of options. Sweep to the outside, play-action throw to Smith downfield or even on a screen. Moose for 7 yards. Another run up the middle from Williams or Stewart. In any case, it gives us short yardage for 3rd down, or a 1st down. KEY: We’ve got to move the chains in this game. This isn’t the 2004 Super Bowl. We can’t get in a shootout. Keep Brady and Co. off the field.
3rd downs – This is on Matt Moore’s shoulders. He either converts or he does not. The kid shows a lot of heart. I’d like to see the coaching staff show some heart in him. I have no problems with throwing it long to Smith, medium to Smith, medium to Moose or a TE, or even a screen pass to a RB. What I don’t want to see is one of those "Hey, it’s 3rd and 7, so let’s throw a 5 yard pass to a WR or TE!" Either allow Moore to hit his targets downfield, or put it in open-space to Williams or Stewart.
4th down – This all depends on the score, field position, or situation. But I like the chances of Williams or Stewart on a short sweep against the Pats, or better yet, Matt Moore with a quick pass to the WRs or TEs for 5 yards. If we’re in this game, this’ll come up a couple three times. Fox will have to pick his spots. On most other fourths, it’s all Baker.
13-10
I sure hope it’s that low – if so the Panthers have a chance. Based on last week’s performance, I don’t know if they can consistantly get it into the endzone.
3 TD’s would need one or two big play scores.
by panthersnbraves on Dec 9, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
It should be noted in the Panthers O vs Pats D
that Pats safety Brandon Meriweather is an absolute liability for them in pass defense. Attack, attack, and when in doubt, attack again.
by r3 on Dec 9, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
pat's fan since they began (guess that makes me fairly old)
loved the article & I love deangelo (he won me some $ in my fant football league last yr) however I think you are in for a cold game sunday, 30 something to 10-17. your best chance passing is the pat’s right side, the cb’s are either 2nd yr or rookies and they have been exploited alot. meriwether plays a deep safety becuz of the (seemingly) constant screw ups there. don’t think your running attack worries the d too much (despite having 2 good backs). Brady has been inconsistent this yr but when he is on he has been pretty good. biggest concern in pat’s passing attack is the lack of a reliable 3rd wide receiver, esp as the pat’s are frequently in 4 or 5 spread offenses. expect brady will be looking for a game ball for his new son & the game decided by the 3rd qtr. this would be a different post if we were playing down south, I’d be expecting a close game altho the same result. good luck sunday
don’t think your running attack worries the d too much
I think I’ve heard that every week and, so far, the Jets are the only team that lived up to it (I blame our o-line more than I attribute their D, though). That is, when we decide to run it. Sometimes we have some awfully questionable game plans.
Not saying you’ll have much trouble with our run game being I’ve got no clue which o-line is going to show up but, of course, I’m hoping Williams pulls a Davis.
It’s certainly going to be tough for us. Anything can happen in the NFL, though. Good luck & may both teams play injury free :)
Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!
I hope Munnerlyn is back & Pass Rush is key.
I am not really worried about the Patriots defense that has been very inconsistent all season what I am worried about is the offensive weapons. Brady, Welker, Moss, Watson, Faulk, and more (assuming all of them play, haven’t seen injury report).
I still think that if Munnerlyn plays we have a shot b/c he could cover Welker one on one with his speed and Gamble with safety help over the top could take care of Moss.
With Godfrey and Martin changing it up at FS we have a great one, two punch their as well.
Pass Rush w/ Peppers and E. Brown is going to be key, very key b/c when Brady and his club has struggled it has been against good defenses which we are.
Plus if the Dolphins can take them out I know we can, and Matt Moore will manage the game hopefully as well as he did last week.
GO PANTHERS.
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Dec 9, 2009 3:44 PM EST reply actions
Uhhh 13 to 10? Really?
You think the Patriots are only going to score 10 points on OUR defense IN New England? Really? Wow. I mean, I realize that this a Panther’s fan site but perhaps we should be putting more realistic opinions in the main post sections.
No offense intended but we are 5-7 and we are starting a very inexperienced QB against a team that is 6-0 at home and will be played in cold weather conditions. We got torched passing yardage wise by the Tampa Bay Freakin Buccaneers for crying out loud. 10 points???
I’m glad one sentence mattered to you.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James The Aussie on Dec 9, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Like I said earlier, I'm not picking the Panthers to lose, I can't do it.
I guess I should say
“Panthers win in a shootout 42-37 after Matt Moore throws 4 touchdowns!”
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James The Aussie on Dec 9, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
That's why
JtA is the ‘Optimist’…going with the heart over the head, we all have to follow suit with the last four games!
You just never know, a nothing-to-lose team versus an at-home team with high expectations and a worse-than-expected record to date this season.
Put me down for a ‘hopeful’ and an extra case of beer just in case it goes to OT.
I meant no offense, it’s just a prediction. There are a million bad predictions in this world and some of them even turn out to be true. So you never know, you could be right and I’d be eating crow. I’m just not very confident in our defense against the Patriots attack right now. At least, not 10 points confident. However, I do think we’ll score more than 13 points and I have a sneaky feeling Matt Moore will have a good game. It would not surprise me if we won, but it would surprise me if we held them to 10 points total.
Maybe...
Freeman has thrown 10 interceptions in 5 starts… half of them were against us.
We weren’t supposed to pick Warner 5 times either. He has a total of 11 interceptions.. excluding the game against us, that’s 6 on the season with a maximum of 2 per game.
Brady is currently at 10 and hasn’t thrown more than 2 in a game either.
Warner also holds a higher completion percentage this season.
Not saying it’ll happen but it’s certainly not impossible. We’re 5th in the league for interceptions this season.
Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!
Brady has never thrown that many interceptions in a game ever. That’s a good point about Warner, but you can’t compare Freeman and Brady.
Why?
Sure he has more experience and is, well, a better QB but at the end of the day, stats are stats. All of the experience that went into those stats are moot. If you Brady played badly while Freeman had a good day, the stats are going to show Freeman was the better QB that week regardless of star power.
I believe every QB can be compared with every QB. It’s the media that makes Brady and Manning out to be these superhuman players.
I’m certainly not expecting us to pick Brady five times but if we do, it’ll be nice.
Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!
over/under how many time they go for it on 4th downs?
I’m going to say atleast 3, what do you guys think?
I think over.
Belichick loves to go for it.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James The Aussie on Dec 9, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
And sadly, the pessimist in me says they will likely convert atleast half of them :(
by SmithnCompany on Dec 9, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just hoping..
They run on a few of those 4th and shorts… and hopefully Peppers will get another one of the stops like he had last week.
Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!
Easiest Way to win agaisnt the Patriots.
Time of Possession,
We need long drives that will burn up time and not allow Moss or Welker on the Field, Every time i see that Number 12,81, or 83 on the field i will be holding my breath. Hopefully this will be an incredibley close game
This is true. We need to work on our third down conversions. If you limit turnovers and are good on getting first downs you’re gonna score big points. Or at least have long drives.
+1
3rd down conversions are going to be paramount; Panthers have to keep long drives sustained.
by boywonderncsu on Dec 11, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
The Pats are primmed
for an upset. I’ve been reading about Brady calling guys out in practice this week (a major break in Pats policy) the team has lost as many games this season as they did without Brady last season, and they lost two in a row for the first time in a few seasons. Carolina’s number one RB is back after a week off, we have a inexperienced QB so the run will be heavy and the passes short, and the Panthers I’m sure want another chance at the Pats (we saw how the team responds to pride issues in the Arizona game) .
The key to this game will be covering Welker at all times, kickoffs must go out of the end zone punts may as well be kicked out of bounds, and 3rd down/red zone conversions. The last point is a major issue the Panthers must stop this 3 and out cycle (the defense gets the ball and the offense puts the D back on the field in 2 minuets its no wonder the team falls out in the second half) and settling for 3 points.
I say Panthers 24-21
That's true..
I wonder if they sat Williams strictly to rest him up for the Pats? I know he had an injury nagging him, an ankle I believe (not positive?), but that hadn’t stopped him the week before. I’m thinking they were confident enough in Stewart and Sutton to move the ball against Tampa that they sat Williams to save him for the Pats… After all, the last time we played them, Stephen Davis got 3 rushing touchdowns leading us to a 27-17 victory, even with Delhomme going 11 of 26 for 154yds, no tds, and 1 interception… I want to see Williams go for 4.
Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!
Which will propel me to a win against my brother in FF :)
Every time this season we are supposed to win you guys predict by double digits (Miami, Jets, Buffalo) Well now we aren’t supposed to win, I’m going to go out on a limb and say 28-17, Carolina. They ipen up in the snow with a special teams TD, then someone fumbles on a run, we pick it up, Moore throws a TD, tied. Brady throws a pick, Stew scores from 3. Brady leads them down and ties it at the half. We get the ball, D-Will rips off a long one, but then Brady hits Moss deep, we stiffen up, Gostowski misses. 3-out, Carolina, Brady drives them down again, Gostowski nails it. Smith nabs a big bomb, D-Will capitalizes off of a 20 yard draw, 28-17. Brady drives down, but we stiffen up and hold them on fourth, lather, rinse, repeat. The game is closed out when Marshall grabs a pick and we run out the clock.
by Flowing Willow on Dec 10, 2009 7:11 AM EST up reply actions
Wow, now that’s a whole game prediction. Funny thing is, it’s entirely possible!
Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!
You guys owe me a hundred dollars
if that comes true. ;)
by Flowing Willow on Dec 11, 2009 2:33 AM EST up reply actions
hahah
If it does, I sure hope it doesn’t get lost in the mail ;)
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
lol
With the South African system, it very well could.
I have paypal though so no need for that. ;)
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Dec 12, 2009 6:24 AM EST up reply actions
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