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Matt Moore’s Passing Propensity- circa 2007

In Matt Moore's three true starts in 2007 the Carolina Panthers' receiving corps was drastically different than the group we have today. However, some of the key players are still on our offense. Today we're going to look behind Moore's numbers from those three games to see what his passing tendencies were and try and see if we can paint a picture of the QB and who he might be looking for on Sunday vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The setup is quite simple really. Take Moore's attempted passes and see who he liked to throw to in 2007. We're looking at attempts over completions because it puts the onus on Moore, and paints a better picture of who he likes to target. In the end we'll break it all down and I'll come up with a rough estimate for how I think he'll distribute the ball on Sunday.

So join me... after the jump

Star-divide

Week 15- Seattle Seahawks

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 27

Target breakdown:

#1 WR- Smith: 11 passes

#2 WR- Carter: 7 passes

#3 WR- Robinson: 2 passes

#1 TE- King: 2 passes

#2 TE- Fauria: 1 pass

#3 TE- Rosario 1 pass

#1 RB- Foster: 0 passes

#2 RB- Williams: 2 passes

FB- Hoover: 1 pass

- - - - - - - - - -

Week 16- Dallas Cowboys

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 28

Target breakdown:

#1 WR- Smith: 15 passes

#2 WR- Carter: 5 passes

#3 WR- Robinson: 2 passes

#1 TE- King: 1 pass

#2 TE- Fauria: 0 passes

#3 TE- Rosario 1 pass

#1 RB- Foster: 2 passes

#2 RB- Williams: 1 pass

FB- Hoover: 1 pass

- - - - - - - - - -

Week 17- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 24

Target breakdown:

#1 WR- Smith: 7 passes

#2 WR- Carter: 5 passes

#3 WR- Robinson: 2 passes

#1 TE- King: 2 passes

#2 TE- Fauria: 1 pass

#3 TE- Rosario 3 passes

#1 RB- Foster: 1 pass

#2 RB- Williams: 0 passes

FB- Hoover: 2 passes

- - - - - - - - - -

Moore's three game breakdown:

#1 WR- Smith: 33 passes

#2 WR- Carter: 17 passes

#3 WR- Robinson: 6 passes

#1 TE- King: 5 passes

#2 TE- Fauria: 2 passes

#3 TE- Rosario 5 passes

#1 RB- Foster: 3 passes

#2 RB- Williams: 3 passes

FB- Hoover: 4 passes

- - - - - - - - - -

So, what does this all mean?

  • Don't fear that Moore won't be looking to Steve Smith a lot on Sunday, because it was clear from his three game stretch that Smitty was clearly his primary target throwing to him over his #2 receiver at a factor of 2:1.
  • Moore doesn't really utilize his TEs to great effect. Passing to RBs almost as often as his TEs. However, he did like passing to Jeff King and Dante Rosario.
  • He is adept at making his full progressions and spreading the ball around the entire offense. Though Moore obviously concentrates on his WRs, he isn't afraid to get the backfield involved.

How will Moore look on Sunday?

Rather than worry about stats I'm going to prognosticate on how Moore might distribute the ball on Sunday. There are new factors that might influence his performance:

  1. The Panthers' running game is far better in 2009 than 2007
  2. Muhsin Muhammad is a different receiver than Drew Carter. Less of a burner, and more of a possession receiver.
  3. Rosario has evolved into a true pass catching threat at TE
  4. The Panthers may pass less than they did in 2007 due to factor 1, and being recently gun-shy.

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 22

#1 WR- Smith: 9 passes

#2 WR- Muhammad: 4 passes

#3 WR- Jarrett: 1 pass

#1 TE- King: 1 passes

#2 TE- Rosario: 3 passes

#3 TE- Barnidge: 2 passes

#1 RB- Williams: 1 pass

#2 RB- Stewart: 1 pass

FB- Hoover: 0 pass

 

EDIT: and here's what happened

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 20

#1 WR- Smith: 5 passes

#2 WR- Muhammad: 5 passes

#3 WR- Martin: 1 pass

#1 TE- King: 3 passes

#2 TE- Rosario:  3 passes

#3 TE- Barnidge:  0 passes

#1 RB- Stewart: 1 pass

#2 RB- Sutton: 2 pass

FB- Hoover: 0 pass

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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Comments

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Now if they will just catch the ball.

In your article were these attempts or completions. If Matt Moore has the play book in his brain and can recall it we will do fine. I think he has the talent to do it but does he really have the confidence, it’s been awhile since he played a full game. I wish the best for them and I hope Jake has a piece of mind. We have been hard on him, but this is the best avenue for the team at this moment. We are only a few pieces away from having a contending team(except for special teams) and getting our injured back on the field.

by Cwilly1 on Dec 4, 2009 10:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nice analysis James..

it also does not hurt that Moore was quoted as saying that he is better at looking at the third and fourth option instead of looking at option one and then throwing to option two if one is not available. Hopefully he will efficiently spread the ball around for some nice receptions either way.

by Davejinxer on Dec 4, 2009 10:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1

From those numbers it looks like he was fairly balanced from inception.

I kind of like that he sent a few in Hoover’s direction. Not that I would want to see a FB catching 10+ a game or anything but one here and there does force the defense to consider everybody.

I just hope these points aren’t rendered moot with Wharton getting beaten silly on that left side… Love him as an LG; scared stupid of him as an LT.

Glad this is an early game so we don’t have to wait all day to find out.

by GuyIncognito on Dec 4, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the data James.

Still wish it could have worked out with Carter.

I think that’s a good prognostication but I do hope Moore looks to Jarrett more than once.

It should be interesting to see if the two of them have developed good chemistry during their work with the second team.

Who knows, we haven’t had a bad game with the two of them to suck the wind out of our sails, so maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised with a good young tandem : )

by GuyIncognito on Dec 4, 2009 10:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good Stuff James!

Might I add that in addition to the receiving corps being different this time for Moore, there is also a difference in Moore himself.

I am interested to see what effect the extra time in the system will have. I hope it means he will be able to go through his reads and not resort to heaving the ball up to Smith when in double coverage.

I also wonder if his early dependence on Smitty came from a real understanding of how to best use our weapons effectively, or if it stemmed being uncomfortable and going to the “safety blanket” that is a pro bowl receiver.

by GoodOl'NorthState on Dec 4, 2009 10:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Break it Down by reception, range, and average as well:

 
SEATTLE

http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=271216029

S. Smith 8 72 9.0 0 15
D. Rosario 1 54 54.0 0 54
D. Carter 3 22 7.3 0 12
R. Robinson 2 20 10.0 0 12
C. Fauria 1 16 16.0 0 16
J. King 2 13 6.5 0 13
D. Williams 2 11 5.5 0 7
Team 19 208 10.9 0 54

DALLAS

http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=271222029

S. Smith 9 137 15.2 1 57
D. Rosario 1 13 13.0 0 13
D. Carter 1 10 10.0 0 10
D. Foster 1 8 8.0 0 8
D. Williams 1 6 6.0 0 6
R. Robinson 1 6 6.0 0 6
B. Hoover 1 2 2.0 0 2
Team 15 182 12.1 1 57

TAMPA BAY

http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=271230027

D. Carter 2 59 29.5 0 46
S. Smith 5 48 9.6 0 25
D. Rosario 3 36 12.0 1 20
D. Foster 1 11 11.0 0 11
R. Robinson 1 9 9.0 0 9
J. King 1 5 5.0 0 5
B. Hoover 1 4 4.0 0 4
C. Fauria 1 2 2.0 1 2
Team 15 174 11.6 2 46

 

by univonc on Dec 4, 2009 11:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

My point

is that Matt will be utilized in more than just flares and screens.

I feel good about this one.

by univonc on Dec 4, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Solid analysis James...

I look for Moore to spread the ball around and get Rosario & Barnidge involved down the seams when Smitty is double covered.

Given the current injury status of our WR corps (Moose & Jarrett) we may see some Moore to Moore passes included as well.

I fully expect a solid effort from Moore. He’s been here long enough to know the playbook. He’s young and has a good arm, and has the best RB tandem in the league behind him — we should be in for a real treat this Sunday.

by bwsmith25 on Dec 4, 2009 11:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Moore Double Trouble?

Moore, Will, Moore, Stew :)

Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!

by D-Ranged1 on Dec 4, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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