Matt Moore’s Passing Propensity- circa 2007

In Matt Moore's three true starts in 2007 the Carolina Panthers' receiving corps was drastically different than the group we have today. However, some of the key players are still on our offense. Today we're going to look behind Moore's numbers from those three games to see what his passing tendencies were and try and see if we can paint a picture of the QB and who he might be looking for on Sunday vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The setup is quite simple really. Take Moore's attempted passes and see who he liked to throw to in 2007. We're looking at attempts over completions because it puts the onus on Moore, and paints a better picture of who he likes to target. In the end we'll break it all down and I'll come up with a rough estimate for how I think he'll distribute the ball on Sunday.

So join me... after the jump

Week 15- Seattle Seahawks

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 27

Target breakdown:

#1 WR- Smith: 11 passes

#2 WR- Carter: 7 passes

#3 WR- Robinson: 2 passes

#1 TE- King: 2 passes

#2 TE- Fauria: 1 pass

#3 TE- Rosario 1 pass

#1 RB- Foster: 0 passes

#2 RB- Williams: 2 passes

FB- Hoover: 1 pass

- - - - - - - - - -

Week 16- Dallas Cowboys

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 28

Target breakdown:

#1 WR- Smith: 15 passes

#2 WR- Carter: 5 passes

#3 WR- Robinson: 2 passes

#1 TE- King: 1 pass

#2 TE- Fauria: 0 passes

#3 TE- Rosario 1 pass

#1 RB- Foster: 2 passes

#2 RB- Williams: 1 pass

FB- Hoover: 1 pass

- - - - - - - - - -

Week 17- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 24

Target breakdown:

#1 WR- Smith: 7 passes

#2 WR- Carter: 5 passes

#3 WR- Robinson: 2 passes

#1 TE- King: 2 passes

#2 TE- Fauria: 1 pass

#3 TE- Rosario 3 passes

#1 RB- Foster: 1 pass

#2 RB- Williams: 0 passes

FB- Hoover: 2 passes

- - - - - - - - - -

Moore's three game breakdown:

#1 WR- Smith: 33 passes

#2 WR- Carter: 17 passes

#3 WR- Robinson: 6 passes

#1 TE- King: 5 passes

#2 TE- Fauria: 2 passes

#3 TE- Rosario 5 passes

#1 RB- Foster: 3 passes

#2 RB- Williams: 3 passes

FB- Hoover: 4 passes

- - - - - - - - - -

So, what does this all mean?

• Don't fear that Moore won't be looking to Steve Smith a lot on Sunday, because it was clear from his three game stretch that Smitty was clearly his primary target throwing to him over his #2 receiver at a factor of 2:1.
• Moore doesn't really utilize his TEs to great effect. Passing to RBs almost as often as his TEs. However, he did like passing to Jeff King and Dante Rosario.
• He is adept at making his full progressions and spreading the ball around the entire offense. Though Moore obviously concentrates on his WRs, he isn't afraid to get the backfield involved.

How will Moore look on Sunday?

Rather than worry about stats I'm going to prognosticate on how Moore might distribute the ball on Sunday. There are new factors that might influence his performance:

1. The Panthers' running game is far better in 2009 than 2007
2. Muhsin Muhammad is a different receiver than Drew Carter. Less of a burner, and more of a possession receiver.
3. Rosario has evolved into a true pass catching threat at TE
4. The Panthers may pass less than they did in 2007 due to factor 1, and being recently gun-shy.

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 22

#1 WR- Smith: 9 passes

#2 WR- Muhammad: 4 passes

#3 WR- Jarrett: 1 pass

#1 TE- King: 1 passes

#2 TE- Rosario: 3 passes

#3 TE- Barnidge: 2 passes

#1 RB- Williams: 1 pass

#2 RB- Stewart: 1 pass

FB- Hoover: 0 pass

EDIT: and here's what happened

Matt Moore's attempted passes: 20

#1 WR- Smith: 5 passes

#2 WR- Muhammad: 5 passes

#3 WR- Martin: 1 pass

#1 TE- King: 3 passes

#2 TE- Rosario:  3 passes

#3 TE- Barnidge:  0 passes

#1 RB- Stewart: 1 pass

#2 RB- Sutton: 2 pass

FB- Hoover: 0 pass