Carolina Panthers’ Hump Day Prognostication (New Orleans Saints edition)
by James Dator on Dec 30, 2009 9:14 AM EST
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Good morning Panther faithful and happy hump day! Today not only marks the last hump day of 2009, but also the last Hump Day Prognostication for the 2009 season. It's been a pleasure putting it out here for everyone each week and look to see it again week one of 2010.
This Sunday's game pits the late surging Carolina Panthers (7-8) against the reeling New Orleans Saints (13-2). The Panthers are coming off a two game win streak convincingly defeating two of the NFC's big guns in the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants respectively. Conversely, the Saints have dropped back to back games against the Dallas Cowboys and lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This contest bodes to be strangely intriguing. Typically a game like this would be little more than a throw-away to end the season, but with the Panthers playing to secure the pride of reaching .500, and despite locking up home field advantage the Saints will be looking to get a win and some momentum heading into the playoffs. So let's examine the matchup:
After the jump...
New Orleans run offense vs. Carolina run defense
When I last prognosticated about the Saints they were boasting the 4th best rushing attack in the NFL averaging 153.3 ypg, as the season progressed the Saints dropped one spot to having the 5th ranked rushing attack averaging 135.5 yards now. At the same time the Panthers 29th ranked run defense is now improved to 25th in the NFL. Regardless, the Saints will probably try and run the football a lot on Sunday to avoid testing the Panther's pass defense.
Even though the Panthers have been stellar the last two weeks in run defense I see the Saints getting the upper hand on the ground.
Edge: New Orleans
- - - - -
KEY MATCHUP: New Orleans pass offense vs. Carolina pass defense
As it has been so many times in 2009 the key to the Panthers' game will be their amazing pass defense. As a collective Carolina have arguably seen the best QBs in the NFL as a whole: McNabb, Ryan (x2), Brees, Romo, Brady, Warner, Favre, Eli Manning... the list goes on. Despite having their resilience tested by this group the Panthers remained resolute against the pass and now sit 4th in the NFL in pass defense.
Meanwhile, what more can be said about the New Orleans passing attack that isn't already known? Brees is one of the best QBs in the NFL and they boast one of the best stables of WRs in the league. Ultimately I see the Panthers getting the upper hand in this matchup. They have been tested before and come through with flying colors.
Edge: Carolina
- - - - -
Carolina run offense vs. New Orleans run defense
Jonathan Stewart is a man possessed right now, and I just don't see anyone being able to stop him at this point. With teams now needing to respect Carolina's passing attack, stacking the box is no longer the modus operandi for opposing defenses. The Saints will have to account for both and when it typically takes 3-4 guys to bring Stewart does it's a tough prospect.
Carolina are 4th in the NFL in rushing, New Orleans are 18th in run defense... it's elementary.
Edge: Carolina
- - - - -
Carolina pass offense vs. New Orleans pass defense
Matt Moore has the Carolina pass offense clicking right now and I was fully committed to giving the Panthers this category... but there's an asterisk, one with a cast on his arm. The Panthers' passing offense without Steve Smith is a much weakened beast. The Panthers only scored 10 points against the Giants without Smitty on the field, and 31 when he did play. Though Moore is adept at finding Muhsin Muhammad and the tight ends, it will be incumbent upon Dwayne Jarrett, Kenneth Moore and Charly Martin to provide some help over at the other side. All three have shown shining moments, but also lackluster ones, so it becomes very difficult to know who, if anyone will step up.
On the plus side for Panther fans we get to see Moore deal with another adverse situation, further aiding his development into the potential QB of the future in Carolina.
Edge: New Orleans
- - - - -
Special Teams
Same old story, same old song and dance.
Edge: New Orleans
- - - - -
Coaching
Carolina's coaching has been much better the last few weeks as the staff utilizes player's strengths and puts them in a position to succeed. If Sean Payton decides to rest some of his players it also sways the argument, but ultimately one team is 7-8 and one is 13-2.
Edge: New Orleans
- - - - -
Final Summary
The future is bright for the Carolina Panthers as John Fox and co. continue to evaluate their talent as they reload for a 2010 campaign. These are not the same Carolina Panthers the Saints saw in week 9 and with a new starting QB, RB and different offensive line I don't think the Saints will have a lot of tape on some of our newer guys. Carolina will pound the rock and throw little more than to keep the defense honest. As a starter no team has been able to slow, let alone stop Jonathan Stewart and I think the trend continues in Charlotte as the both teams go into a 3 game win streak into the offseason, and a 3 game losing streak heading into the playoffs respectively.
Carolina Panthers 28 - New Orleans Saints 17
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Good evaluation, bad reasoning
The Saints will be resting anyone thats not 100%, and Brees will only play a short period, if at all. The Saints without Brees on the field are probable a less than .500 team, certainly not a 13-2 one. Brees’ receivers are talented, but not in the class of Reggie Wayne or Steve Smith. Without Brees, the Saints won’t score, and won’t win.
As far as the Saints not having tape on the younger players, they’ve faced Stewart several times already, and I think the first game Moore play was a couple of years ago against the Saints, so they have tape on him firsthand.
Without Smith, the Panthers will be too one dimensional. If it wasn’t for home field advantage being secured, I’d say the Saints win. However, I think the Panthers will even their record at 8-8.
On an aside, the bright side for Panthers fans is you will benefit similar to how we (Saints) did this year. The NFC South is tougher than the rest of the league cares to admit. At 8-8, coming off a 12-4 last season, you will get the 3rd place schedule in 2010. Last year, Saints and Panthers had 2 head to head and 12 common opponents. There were only two games different. As the last place team, we drew St. Louis and Detroit. As the 1st place team, Carolina drew Arizona and Minnesota. Huge difference. Two wins in the NFL is the difference between playoffs and mediocrity. Let’s stick together. Support the Saints to represent the NFC South in the playoffs.
schedule
the schedule skews the performance. we destroyed arizona, minnesota and the giants. we got embarrassed by buffalo and miami. either way, i do think brees sits the second half and we’re gonna get the win. the question is how many saints defensive starters will play the whole game? in evaluating the young career or moore, we look at every detail. if he throws 4 TDs in the 4th quarter against NO 3rd stringers, i’m not sure what to make of that. but i still want the win.
by usana_gaines on Dec 30, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
I was thinking the exact same thing
I care less about winning then I do Moore’s evaluation process. I don’t care how long Brees plays. I just want the Saints defense to play the whole game, so we can see if Moore can make plays with little receiving talent.
And if he does, what are the implications?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
The implication would be we've got our QB of the future.
We’ll run all day on the Saints, which will open up the passing lanes for Moore, off the play action which he does so well.
Check out these ratings on the Saints’ defense:
http://www.profootballfocus.com/cstats.php?tab=by_team&season=2009&teamid=20&stype=a&stats=d
Nothing to stop our RBs there. And those don’t include their last game, where TAMPA BAY (!) put up 439 yards on them, 176 on the ground!
I understand your logic southtunnel....
but I don’t think it will happen. Since our defensive squad is where we have been the most banged up, I’d be more surprised to see starters playing significant portions of the game on that side of the ball than on offense.
In any event, I’ve been very impressed with Moore since he bagan starting. And the Panthers as a whole have looked great recently. It would be an interesting game if this was one the Saints had to win. But, as exemplified by what happened to Smith last week, I think it’s safe to say you will see a very watered down version of the Saints this weekend.
I suspect , in keeping with NFC South tradition, next year will bring a very different outcome for the Panthers. You have every reason to be optimistic.
Say... Moore the next Drew Brees???
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 31, 2009 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
after Dallas beat the saints i found it bearable to pull for the Saints in the playoffs again. Something about a team trying for 16-0 that makes their fans a bunch of assholes (look at a colts blog right now Caldwell rests his starters presumably to limit the Steelers playoff chances and colts fans want his head).
by bleed_in_blue on Dec 30, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
good point
I’ll DEFINITELY be rooting for the Saints in the playoffs (and hopefully beyond). I always figure, well, if MY team doesn’t make it – it’s only right to support your division :)
by boywonderncsu on Dec 30, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Drew Brees is your Steve Smith
In that Smith has made an average QB look really good at times, and Brees has got it done without star receiving talent.
I could care less about your organization… But I really like Brees, how he plays and what he’s done off the field… I’ll be glad to see him make a playoff run and maybe a Superbowl.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Hard game to figure considering the Saints have clinched #1 seed
My guess is the Saints will play the starters for a half and play loose and aggressive, TRY to build a big lead, declare moral victory at the half, rest many starters in the 2nd half, challenge the 2nd teamers to bring home the win and come away with a great “team unifying” victory that will carry momentum into the playoffs.
I predict it won’t work and the Panthers defeat the Saints and send them into a death spiral as they enter the playoffs. Panthers 21-17.
Saints' running game not much with Pierre Thomas banged up
Pride of Panthers 31,
Tarnished Saints 13
They have no incentive to get up for this game — that’s why there’s no betting line.
Best line in this article...
“The future is bright for the Carolina Panthers as John Fox and co. continue to evaluate their talent as they reload for a 2010 campaign.” This is preseason 2010 for the Panthers and I am the most optimistic I have been all year about this team.
I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it.
I think this game boils down to three people..
Brees, and how long and hard he plays.. Even against our great pass D, Brees just finds ways to score points.
Stewart, if he comes out like he has the last two weeks..
Moore, converting third downs and allowing Stewart to keep trucking.
In the end, I think we have a 2 – 1 advantage. Honestly, earlier in the season, how many people would have said “hell yeah!” if offered the chance to go 3-1 in the final four games WE had? Patroits, Vikings, Giants, Saints? That’s got to be one of the toughest month in the NFL – yet our team responded admirably. I think we finish that way.
Carolina 34 – Saints 21
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Oh Dude, I'm very disappointed with your final score prediction!
C’mon man! Here’s a lesson from Moonbat/Superstition 101: Once you find something that works you gotta run with it.
Now please revise your final score prediction appropriately before its too late.
You're absolutely right.
Thank you for bringing that to my attention. I hereby revoke my previous prediction. Hopefully, it is not too late. Staying in line with these past two weeks, I officially present my (new) prediction:
Saints 105 – Carolina 6.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Another great opportunity for Moore to prove himself to the doubters
Last week we welcomed the potential QB pressure that NYG could bring on Moore, in order to see how he’d handle it. And he handled it better than anyone expected. Of course that wasn’t enough for many to still hold onto the notion that Jake should possibly still run this team.
This week we get to see Moore with only average-at-best receiving targets. Can he still find ways to make plays? Could any QB? If somehow he does, it will make for some more interesting Jake/Moore conversation..
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Nobody should hold Moore's feet to the fire if he has a bad game this week.
It could be Charly Martin or Kenneth Moore at the #2… that really stacks the deck against him.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
I hold little interest in Stewart this week as he has proven himself
but I am excited to see what Matt Moore does with our WR… it would be nice to know that the Panthers have their own Miles Austin
The interest in Stewart should be..
that it is on his shoulders to cement Double Trouble in NFL history as the best rushing duo with 1000 yards each.
Unless of course Williams plays.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
I predict another Panther 40 burger
Last chance for a bold prediction ;) Few shots down field without Smitty. But Moore will keep long drives alive by completing most of his 3rd and longs, allowing the Saints defense to wear out and Stewart to run wild. It will also be Goodson’s return to dominance. (And yes I am using the term dominance loosely)
Panthers 41 – Saints 21
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Only a mere 20?
You guys really aren’t use to winning are you?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
I only expect staters to play the first half (at most)
That’s why i only predict a 30 something score by the Saints in this game.
Why do comments keep disappearing?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
RE: Why do comments keep disappearing?
Because whoever runs this site apparently reserves the right to delete any/all comments at will when they don’t like what is being said in here. That’s why.
Not quite, sir
However, when you continually bring something up that have been warned for there are repercussions… like comments being deleted.
Talk football and play nice, it’s pretty simple.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Sounds good to me!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
America is free..
Though when you join & post on a website such as this, you consent to obey their rules and regulations. All they’re asking is that you be polite while discussing football. We will surely do the same, as we do every day.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Not everyone in here adheres to those rules and regulations to "play nice"...
All they’re asking is that you be polite while discussing football. We will surely do the same, as we do every day.
As most of you do every day, you should have said here…
I’ll give you that sir, though I assure you they are reprimanded just the same. There’s a very good group here that tries to keep these boards as clean, friendly, and welcoming as possible. As James said below, hopefully everyone can start anew with a respectful conversation concerning Sundays game.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
D-Ranged1 has it in a nutshell
I understand there was a heated exchange earlier… let’s just forget about it, clean house (hence the deleted comments) and star anew talking about the game (which you’ve already done below).
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Thanks a lot James
Now we all are itching to see the heated exchange
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, the freedom to delete stupid comments
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
It appears the Saints will rest as much as possible in this game after all...
Expect to see Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey and Marques Colston on offense for only two quarters of play, or less, provided they can establish positive momentum and score points the way they did early on this season before being pulled to “rest” until the playoffs begin for this team on Jan 16 or 17.
The same thing can be said for the defense and Jonathan Vilma, Darren Sharper, etc on that side of the ball as long as they can stop the run and limit points scored by the Panthers adequately enough to show positive momentum toward the post-season.
Best of luck to both teams and let’s all hope for no further injuries on the field this Sunday in Charlotte.
Peace out y’all!
RHD
I hate to see that as I was looking forward to seeing the fully hard fought, 4 quarter game but no one can blame them for resting up for what is, ultimately, much more important games in the future.
Best of luck to you guys as well, I hope it’s an exciting game regardless who’s on field.
Helpful reminder for James at seasons end: 2nd Rnd CSR Fan Draft Pick.
Believe me, I would like nothing more than to see a full head-to-head game too
The fact remains, as you already pointed out, that the Saints have much bigger fish to fry in the month of January than the Panthers in an essentially meaningless regular season game with the #1 NFC seed and home-field advantage already locked up throughout the post-season.
Thank you for the best luck wishes and I am sure that this game on Sunday will still be an exciting one to watch, regardless of who sees the field for either team.
Bigger fish? Like remembering how to win?
You guys are in a tough spot. Playing everybody in a meaningless game wouldn’t normally make sense, but you guys don’t want to go into the playoffs with 3 back to back losses!
Take it from a fan base with recent experience. There is little worse than being all excited about a great season and making the playoffs, just to get knocked out in the first game!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
I am actually being very positive
This is a Panther’s blog. Knocking this week’s opponent is very appropriate.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
I came in here saying nothing but positive things...
…and all you have done is purposely try to provoke me. I really don’t think you want to start with me Mr. southtunnel sir!
They never forgot how to lose
That’s why he’s sitting on the bench with a “broken finger” being out played by a guy nobodies heard of.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
You misunderstood me
He’s on the bench. Being replaced by Mr nobody who just out played Brett Farve and Eli Manning by like 50+ points. Brees is the next victim to be mauled to pieces just before entering the playoffs maimed and broken.
BTW, I really like Brees, great guy, great QB.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
So you're saying they only lost because of Jake, right?
Well, your new savior hasn’t had the pleasure of losing to Drew Brees yet, but he will this Sunday! Good luck on him even being able to walk back to the bench during this one…
To be honest, Brees is one of my favorite QBs in the league
I would love to see what he’d do on this team with Steve Smith and this running game. Of course he’d get half the attempts.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
Hey! I was being friendly
You can take your average, Smitty wannabe WRs and attempt at a running game and move on, sir.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
bro delhomme almost beat you guys
If we would have stuck with the run with 2:30 on the clock in saints territory you guys would have lost that game soooo yeah simmer down on the confidence
What have you done for me lately?
by Steve785 on Dec 31, 2009 3:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Doesn't anyone feel...
…that the Saints won’t want to be going into the post-season on a 3 game losing streak and will therefore play harder? Esp with an extra week off to ponder recent form.
I recall an ’it’s only preseason’ excuse for 0-4 which soon became 0-3 in the real season.
I hope it’s a good game, and that the Saints can represent the NFC South with pride!
We all know what the Saints can do at full strength and full health...
…or at least the Saints, their coaches and their fans do anyway.
Here’s the deal PantherPaddy:
While no team wants to go into the post-season on a 3 game losing streak, the approach the Saints’ coaching staff is obviously taking in this one is that since wear and tear, recent injuries and overall fatigue have been major factors in this team’s skid these last few weeks that eventually caught up with them just enough to give them their first two losses on the season now, it would be better to correct what they can with the 1st team on the field this Sunday in Charlotte against the Panthers and then shut it down and not risk any setbacks or further injuries prior to the week off before the playoffs start in earnest for them.
The 0-4 pre-season followed by the 0-3 regular season start that you are referring to was last years’ Saints, right? It’s a much different team this year when compared to last year, first off. Secondly, these 2009/10 Saints have already shown what they are capable of throughout the course of this regular season and those 13 games won have earned them the #1 seed. Enough said on that point. How this team will ultimately be judged in the long run is based on how they perform in the post-season, which does not even start for them for another 3 weeks now. Those 3 weeks can go a very long way toward healing their players up for the long haul. Remember, if the Saints can take this thing all the way, it will only be 3 more games that they will need to win before being crowned “World Champions”.
Think about this for just a minute. Jabari Greer, starting left cornerback, has been out 3 weeks with a sports hernia surgery and he might be able to play this Sunday just long enough to “knock the rust off” in advance of the playoffs. Jeremy Shockey, starting TE, went down in the Falcons game 3 weeks ago now and has not played a single snap since then. He is nearing 100% as we speak and could be a “go” this Sunday as well for the first time in 3 weeks himself. Jonathan Vilma, starting MLB, and Darren Sharper, starting FS, both sat out practice today in Metairie at the Saints’ training facility due to them both being banged up in recent games. Sedrick Ellis, starting DT, still isn’t 100% even though he has played off and on through the past 2 or 3 games himself. Pierre Thomas, starting RB, bruised a rib against Tampa in this last game and sat out practice today to recover from that injury. David Thomas, #2 TE, sat out practice today with an injury he suffered in the last game. the list goes on and I won’t bore you with it all, but I think you get the point, right?
Rest will go a lot farther to correct this teams’ recent problems than working through them and possibly risking further setbacks or even more injuries could ever fix right now. That is my whole point here.
This Saints team will do their very best to represent not only the people of New Orleans, but also everyone in the Gulf Coast region and in the NFC South with pride! You can count on that sir!
That makes sense.
Benching players to give them additional time to heal makes sense, pulling a Colts and benching for fear of new injuries doesn’t.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Thanks heavyd
I appreciate the comments and understand the importance of injury recovery vs the post season.
BTW, the 0-4 pre-season and 0-3 start to the ‘real’ season was my referral to the Panthers this year, under the general heading of ‘momentum’. We started poorly pre-season and it carried over when it counted, unfortunately.
Hence the comparison to going into the post-season on a 3 game slide and saying ‘well the last 3 games didn’t really matter’ due to #1 seed, first round bye, home field advantage etc already being secured.
Good luck for the playoffs!
by PantherPaddy on Dec 30, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the well wishes in the playoffs!
The Saints can use every little bit of good luck they can muster going forward from here…
Exactly!
Losing is contagious. If the Saints rest and/or lose Sunday, they will be going into a more hostile environment then they have seen all season… without having experienced a win in over a month!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry I meant
Losing is easy to overcome. The Saints will probably rest and still win Sunday. Whoever their playoff opponent is, will be coming into a hostile environment against a team that can win at will, despite how bad they played the previous month.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
We had a QB that led the friggin league in turn overs... You think we don't remember???!
Why don’t you go take your posh, accurate and dominating QB (like anybody really cares about that) and go sulk in the glory of his constant 4500 yard seasons.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, what if Indy wins this weekend? Do they regret not going for the W last week?
I strongly disagree with the call that Indianapolis made too. How many games has Payton Manning ever missed due to injury? Last time I checked, absolutely zero. Bad call by their coaching staff and ownership last weekend against the Jets. They also allowed the Jets the ability to still make the playoffs by letting them steal that win from the Colts. That could even come back to bite them, though I seriously doubt it…
Resting for the playoffs is a proven method to lose.
Especially for the Colts who won their Superbowl when they had to fight and get in.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Very true
The Saints desperately need some momentum going into the playoffs
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
What's your problem southtunnel?
Lay off all the negative talk about losing 3 in a row right before the playoffs, will you please? When have I ever said in here that I expect the Saints to lose this Sunday anyway?
You didn't say you expected them to lose, I did
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Isn't that equally as negative?
A question, realheavyd — why are you spending so much time over here? Isn’t there anything to talk about amongst yourselves over there in Saints Land?
Momentum is an unproveable theory created by sports analysts
and the talking heads on ESPN. They get paid to make games interesting. It doesn’t serve their function well or make for good television ratings to declare a game as meaningless when the option for creating controversy by playing the “momentum card” exists. It allows them something to talk about rather than saying “since nobody really cares about this game, we’re going to go take a leak while we replay the Top Ten Zaniest Plays of the Decade for the eighteenth time today.”
Thus, the theory is vastly over rated in most fan’s minds. If the momentum factor was even close to being true, there would be a lot fewer upsets in the NFL…. the Panthers would have had no chance to have pounded the Vikings and Giants due to a lack of momentum…. the Saints would not have seen a performance drop towards the end of the season because they had gathered so much momentum from 13 wins in a row…. it would have been impossible for the ’07 Patriots to have lost the Super Bowl with all the momentum an 18-0 record would have provided.
For every instance where a team rested players and lost in the playoffs, you can find a team that did the same thing and won. For every team that played hard all the way through the regular season and won in the playoffs, you can find a team that did the same thing and lost.
Had the Saints not had their turd drop last week against Tampa Bay, everyone would assume they would “forfeit” the up coming game and it wouldn’t even be a point of discussion. There are many factors that contribute to a team winning or losing a game that are proven facts, not theories. Better preparation, better coaching or play calling, superior athletes, players sidelined or not sidelined by injuries, specific player match ups, a few key plays or a single missed assignment, or just the luck of the ball bouncing the right way at the right time are all real factors that determine the outcome of a game. The missed face mask penelty on Adrian Peterson when he fumbled the ball in OT against Chicago and the coach’s poor play calling during the first half are the real reasons the Vikings lost that game. But it’s easier and more controversial for some of the television “experts” to theorize a lack of momentum and confidence created by getting man handled by you guys the prior week caused them to have a loser complex.
I’ve followed the Saints with too much passion for my own good since the team’s inception. I’m getting old and I can think of very few things that would give me more pleasure as seeing them win a Super Bowl before I die. I hope they make it, but they may not. But nothing that can happen this weekend (other than a critical injury to a key player) will have significant bearing on their success or lack thereof in the post season.
I wish your team the best of luck.
But I wholly disagree that momentum is a myth made up by the media.
As far back as I looked (1994) there has been no team that’s won the Superbowl heading into the post season on a 2 game losing streak, let alone a 3 game streak.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
"Momentum is an unproveable theory"
Momentum is a crazy 5th dimensional like force that is absolutely real and I would venture to say believed in by mostly every NFL coach, player and most pro athletes.
Sure some may deny its a factor (usually when their on the wrong side of it), but man, when your out there playing and its with you….you can’t deny it.
Good Luck to you guys after Sunday. Even though I don’t think the Saints are the hot hand right now, I think they’ll be tough to beat in the Dome.
Thank you James The Aussie and paydirt16 for the support in the playoffs
Earlier today, I heard on Sports Center that “no team had ever lost the last three games of the regular season and won the Super Bowl”. The inference being that the Saints HAD to win this weekend in order to have any hope whatsoever of winning their first Super Bowl.
When the Saints lost that first game to the Cowboys, the thought entered my mind that it was because I didn’t wear my lucky Saints cap during the game. A lot of Saints fans think they lost the past two games because they were wearing black pants instead of the traditional gold pants. I’ll concede that whatever the momentum theory is or isn’t, it’s a more relevent factor than what cap I’m wearing. However, logic tells me there are some correlations to be made regarding momentum being fact or superstition.
While I suspect the Saints will most likely lose this game, they haven’t done so yet. It’s at least possible that Brunell will have the game of his career and outscore the Panthers while playing with the second string during the third and fourth quarters. I’m not holding my breath, but it’s possible. If that occurs, it might slow down the momentum discussions on the sports shows; but it won’t cause Sean Payton to play non-starters in the playoffs even though they have a one game momentum thing in their favor.
Comparatively, there haven’t been many times in play off history that a team with a 3 game losing streak was even in the playoffs, much less the top seed. It would have probably been more accurate for the guy on Sports Center to have said “I think there may have been only one time in NFL history that a top seeded playoff team lost it’s last 3 regular season games, and If I’m correct, then I’m certain they didn’t win the Super Bowl”. It would have definately been more accurate for him to have added, “and, while I’m at it, the only team to have ever gone undefeated during a 16 game regular season also didn’t win the Super Bowl”. The fact that no 16-0 team has ever won the Super Bowl didn’t keep me from wanting the Saints to go undefeated. And I don’t think their recent losses, given the circumstanses of who played and didn’t, means they will have certain failure in the playoffs.
One reason that no team with a 2 game losing streak heading into the playoffs has ever won a Super Bowl is simply because they were out numbered by teams that DIDN’T have 2 game losing streaks. In recent years, this could be as high as 11 to 1 odds. Hypothetically, if this year’s playoff field consisted of 11 teams with a 2 game losing streak and 1 team that won it’s last game of the regular season, the odds would greatly favor a team with a 2 game regular season losing streak winning the Super Bowl. Law of averages is a theory I do believe in.
A wise man once said: there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. A strong belief in a lot of sports statistics is similar to strongly believing that because you flipped a coin three times and it came up heads each time, it is a foregone conclusion that it will come up heads the fourth time.
At least that’s my “theory”. I hope I’m right.
RE: Resting for the playoffs is a proven method to lose.
The Saints can potentially prove that theory wrong this year depending on when they decide to pull Drew Brees and company in this game and then if they can go on to win it all.
It's a little different due to the reasons you mentioned above.
Saints have guys who are banged up, it’s a little different that resting for fear of injury.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Here's the injury report from today's Saints practice (just to emphasize the point)
Seven New Orleans Saints players missed Wednesday’s workout because of injuries, while 10 more were limited in drills, Coach Sean Payton said.
Among those who sat out of practice were: free safety Darren Sharper (knee), linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee), defensive end Bobby McCray (back), receiver Lance Moore (ankle), safety Usama Young (sports hernia), Pierre Thomas (rib) and tight end David Thomas (calf).
The following players were limited: defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee), tight end Darnell Dinkins (foot), cornerback Jabari Greer (groin), long snapper Jason Kyle (back), tight end Jeremy Shockey (toe), linebacker Scott Shanle (concussion), running back Lynell Hamilton (shoulder), guard Jahri Evans (foot), offensive tackle Jermon Bushrod (wrist) and cornerback Randall Gay (concussion).
Thanks for the lively conversation in here fellas!
Enjoy the game this Sunday, as I will, and best of luck to your team going forward.
Here’s to the NFC South becoming one of the most feared divisions in the NFL in the short years to come, right?!?!?!
The Saints, the Falcons and the Panthers are already solid teams that will only presumably get better and, with Josh Freeman at QB, the Bucs will get there in a matter of just a couple good drafts mixed with free agent acquisitions themselves.
I've said until I'm blue in the face that the NFC South is the best division in the NFL.
The NFC East gets too much credit because it contains 4 giant media markets, but realistically there is only one division where in the last 10 years 3/4 teams have been the the Superbowl and 1 team has won and that’s the NFC South.
Now the Saints just need to get there and the South can round out the decade 4/4.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Very latest Saints report in advance of the game against the Carolina Panthers:
New Orleans Saints Coach Sean Payton steered clear of naming his starting lineup Wednesday but he made it clear how his team will approach Sunday’s regular-season finale at Carolina.
"I think our players understand that there’s really only one way to play a game,’’ Payton said Wednesday. "You can’t go half-in. It may vary who goes in, but there’s only one way to approach the game.
"It’s physical; the team we’re playing is physical, and the challenge we’re facing this week is to prepare with the best plan and go on the road and play Carolina who is playing well.’’
Now that the Saints own the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Sunday’s game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. represents little more than a Week 17 tune-up for the 13-2 Saints.
Obviously, the Black and Gold would like to end the regular season on a positive note and also snap a two-game losing streak but Payton’s overriding goal is to play well and exit the contest injury free.
Payton said his team remains confident in spite of back-to-back losses to Tampa Bay and Dallas.
"We’ll be ready when it comes time for the divisional round (Jan. 16-17),’’ Payton vowed.
Quarterback Drew Brees dismissed the notion that the Saints backed into home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
"We earned it,’’ Brees said. "You can say all you want that we haven’t played well the last two weeks and we’ve come up with two losses but we won enough games before that to get that No. 1 seed.
"We didn’t back into anything. We’re proud of that. But, then again, once you’re in the playoffs, your record doesn’t mean squat. All it does is seed you and maybe give you an opportunity to play at home. Other than that, it doesn’t promise you anything. Yes, we’re happy to be playing at home, in our city in front of our fans but it doesn’t promise anything.’’
How long Brees plays against the Panthers, if he does play, is anyone’s guess. But it does appear that backup quarterback Mark Brunell will replace Brees at some point.
"I’ll be in there a little bit,’’ Brunell said. "That’s the plan. How much I do not know. Coach (Payton) said this week that I’m going to get some time.’’
The possibility also exists that Payton will promote third-string quarterback Chase Daniel from the practice squad to be available on game day.
"I haven’t been told anything,’’ Daniel said. "But, I’ll get ready to play and we’ll see what happens, just like any other week.’’
Brees said he’d like to play against the Panthers – he has started 79 consecutive games – but that decision ultimately rests with Payton.
"I’m preparing to play the whole game, to go the distance, just like I always have and always will,’’ Brees said. "Whatever decision is made, I’m fine with it because I know it’s in the best interests of the team.’’
Brunell will get some time all right...
…inspecting the turf at BofA stadium.
Did Peppers make the Pro Bowl this year?
Will Smith got snubbed and he’s had just a half a sack less than Jared Allen did so far this season… How many has Peppers had so far?
His name is all that's needed for Probowl entry... no sacks required
But he has 10.5. To be fair though, he has more forced fumbles than Allen + a TD. Plus Allen’s white… he can’t be that good.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Beason vs. Vilma
you shouldn’t feel too bad about Will Smith getting snubbed. Jon Beason got snubbed and he is a way better MLB than Jonathan Vilma, who somehow got in. Beason is second in the league in tackles with 134 combined tackles, 24 more than Vilma. Beason also has one FF and 2 fumble recoveries to his name, which Vilma has none. Beason not getting in is a far bigger snub than Will Smith not getting in. It’s ok, we are used to it though, just like last year when DeAngelo Williams didn’t get in even though he led the league in TDs.
Let me add too:
Peppers also had more passes defended, more QB pressures and a blocked FG.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
The difference in a sack and just a QB pressure
Is often something out of the DE’s control. Obviously a sack is the better outcome, but when rating a DE it’s good to look at QB pressures.
So you think we should put up some big bucks to try to keep Pep, James?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 31, 2009 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
It depends what you mean by 'big bucks'
If the term means giving him something in line with what Justin Tuck got in 2008 (5 years, $30 million, $16 million guaranteed) then I’m on board.
However, if the Panthers want to re-offer to give him the richest defensive contract in NFL history we’re talking Albert Haynesworth money (7 years, $100 million, $41 million guaranteed) then no… no player is worth that much.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Not unless you're the Redskins. ; )
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 1, 2010 5:16 AM EST up reply actions
So you think he's worth less than half of what Haynesworth got?
I think I’d go higher. I’m worried that those QB pressures were a large part of our secondary’s success. And that his absence, could bring them back to mediocre. It sure would have been more comforting letting him go, had Brown lit it up this year.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
It's not a matter of what Peppers is worth, it's a matter of fair market value.
The Haynesworth contract was so obscene and ridiculous that the Redskins wrecked the salary scale.
So yes, I am saying I think Peppers is worth half that.
I’ll compare Peppers to Steve Smith.
Smitty was given a 6 year, $42.5 million deal from the Panthers in 2009. Who is more valuable to the Panthers? I think Smith, hands down.
Now, keep in mind that WR is a position that traditionally garners more money than DE.
Right now the highest paid DE in the NFL is Jared Allen, who signed a 6 year, $73.2 million deal.
In the last 3 seasons Allen’s position on the sack stat list has been: 1st, 5th, 2nd.
Peppers has been 137th, 5th, 10th.
Do you think Peppers deserves Jared Allen money? I sure dont.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
You just pointed out that it's not all about sacks
More forced fumbles, more passes defended, more QB pressures make a strong case. I see Peppers often give up a sack to another player because he’s trying to strip the ball… trying to do something to change the game, other than just boost his sacks.
I’m with you on Haynesworth. But I’m not so sure Allen is the better DE.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
If Peppers gets to play the Pack twice...
we aren’t even having this discussion.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
by Flowing Willow on Jan 3, 2010 3:21 AM EST up reply actions
The real loser at DE is Trent Cole of the Eagles
He had a far more productive season than either of those 2 — he’s just a reserve behind them.
43 stops, 13 scks, 20 QB hits. Ouch.
Peppers & Cole
Theres alot of buzz in the Philly media that the Eagles are going to make a serious effort to get Peppers this offseason. Those two with Patterson and Bunkley in the middle would scary.
Lol, What's a reverse racist
Does that mean I like other races better than my own?
But seriously… You can’t say you never watched highlights of Jared Allen and thought to yourself, “Wow, and he’s white!”
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
LOL! What's up with that?
White guys are either a QB, or they protect the white-QB from the black guys. Did the KKK or Black Panthers have something to do with the origins of this sport?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 30, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
I also played nose tackle and DE in my younger years...
…but I was a great blocker with hands and the athleticism to play a skilled position on offense so that’s why I stuck as a TE through high school. I don’t know anything at all about the KKK or Black Panthers and any influence they might have had on the sport of American football…
I gotta go to sleep my friend...
Good luck with everything you care about in this life my man! Take care.
Peace out,
D
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