Options At QB: Alex Smith

With the season all but over (okay, there is still a small chance for the playoffs, as 12thomasal outlined in another fanpost), I figure we might as well look ahead to the off-season. Yeah, part of this is the pessimist in me, but we all know the season is all but lost with the loss today. At 4-7, winning out would put you at 9-7, which probably isn't enough for the playoffs anyways. And even if it was... the stretch to end the season isn't exactly a cake-walk.
Back to the topic at hand... QBs. Jake Delhomme might be the problem. He might not be (Jeff Davidson?). But the fact is, he's nearing the end, if he hasn't reached it already. His stats this year are telling. His career completion ratio is up around 60%, it's 57% this year. His TD:interception ratio is 8:18, and his 18 interceptions are tied for the league lead. He's averaged 7.26 yards/attempt in his career, and it's down to 6.57 ypa this year. He has had 3 games with 3+ ints this season (and a total of 0 TDs in those games). In the past 2 seasons, he's had 2 games with a QB rating below 13 (12.3 & 12.7, or something like that). He was the QB in the playoff game that is burned into our brains... no, not the Super Bowl, but the embarrassment last year.
So I figure... why not look at some of the options out there? There are guys available via trade. There are guys that'll be free agents. There will be options in the draft. And the Panthers need an upgrade... whether or not they address this need is still to be determined. There are, of course, other options on the team (AJ Feeley, Matt Moore, Josh McCown), but I don't believe any of them will be "the answer". That's not to imply any of the free agents/trade guys will, but they have a shot of at least momentarily stopping the bleeding. If the Panthers brass believed Moore/Feeley was the guy (McCown is out with injury), they'd already have seen the field.
One potential target is Alex Smith, a #1 pick out of Utah a couple years back. He hasn't had the career you'd hope to have from your #1 pick (which is why he might be available), but has shown flashes... especially as of late.
Alex Smith, 25 years old
Current team: San Francisco 49ers
Why he might be available:
#1- Smith was taken with the #1 overall pick in 2005 by the 49ers. He had just finished off a magical season with the Utah Utes that saw them bust the BCS and destroy Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl, and had won a couple of awards as well. The Niners decided to make him the #1 overall pick, and soon after that, the starter. There were problems from the situation from the get-go. Smith had spent his college time operating out of the shot-gun (for the most part), and the move to taking most of the snaps from under center wasn't going to be easy. Sure enough, it wasn't... and he's pretty much been declared a bust. The bust thing isn't totally on him. While he was touted as being a smart guy, he went through enough OCs & offensive systems his first couple of seasons to drive anyone insane (4 OCs, in fact). Throw in a couple of unfortunate injuries, and the career just didn't start the way he would have liked it too.
#2- Last year, with Smith out, the Niners seemed to finally find a guy in Shaun Hill that, while potentially not the "future" at QB, was able to play in the system that they were using and lead the team. While he ended up being benched again this season for Smith after a slow start, he does have a contract extension in hand that could give him the leg-up on the QB battle next season. (Of course, Smith's play this season might be enough to off-set that, but that's all still to be determined.)
#3- The Niners, thanks to our Panthers, have 2 first-rounders (looking to be mid-1st rounders at worst). With the number of overrated QBs that'll be available to them early (Jimmy Clausen? Jake Locker? Colt McCoy? Jevan Snead? etc.), they could very easily end up going QB in the first round. In that case, keeping Smith around would just be a waste of space. They also have Nate Davis (drafted last year) in tow, and he could see some time as well.
Scouting Report:
- Has a decent arm, but nothing exceptional
- He's been efficient versus the blitz.
- Tends to lock on to receivers, which tends to lead to too many interceptions.
- He has a long release time that can cause issues with quick-hitters.
- He's a mobile QB, and is accurate on the run.
- Injury prone?
- Best fit for a West Coast Offense?
Stats/Trends:
This Year:
- 6 games played (2-4 record)
- 61% completion percentage
- 9:7 TD:interception ratio (skewed by a 3 int game versus Tennessee where he was trying to lead a come-back)
- 6.68 yards/attempt
Career:
- Save for a bad '07 season, his completion percentage and TD/interception ratio have gone up every year
- This is the best o-line he's played behind, and arguably the best system in a while.
- He's also got targets now, with Gore, Crabtree & Davis all present & healthy.
Why the Panthers should consider him?
- It could be that he just needs a change of scenery.
- He had the talent to go #1 overall, and it's unlikely it's totally zapped in 5 seasons.
- He's still young (just 25), which is important if you're looking for a "QB of the future".
- He's playing well this year, which shows what happens if he has talent around him.
- The early numbers are a result of him being pushed into action way too early.
- The pressure in San Fran was immense... being the #1 overall pick (over hometown guy Aaron Rodgers), and trying to help a franchise that had fans hoping for the next Steve Young/Joe Montana (not in that order).
- The Panthers have had some success with ex-Utes (Steve Smith, Jordan Gross, Ma'ake Kemoeatu).
Why the Panthers shouldn't consider him?
- Regarding the success with ex-Utes, Alex Smith would be the only one from the Urban Meyer era. Meyer's other QBs with NFL hopes? Omar Jacobs (who amounted to nothing) and Tim Tebow (who doesn't seem to be an NFL QB).
- Numbers are numbers, and he doesn't have very good ones in his NFL time.
- The last thing we need is another injury-prone player... that too, at such an important position.
- Isn't the current QB's love of staring down his receiver bad enough?
- He doesn't have the strongest arm, so hitting Steve Smith on the long route seems unlikely.
- Given his play this season, Alex Smith might not even be available.
- Would he cost too much for a guy that might still end up starting the season behind Jake Delhomme?
More options at QB to come (as soon as I find the time for another write-up).
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Comments
Problem is
I don’t see any tangible evidence that the 49ers would give up on Alex Smith now of all times.
Regardless of where they pick, San Francisco are not set at every other position to where they can get a QB 1st round. If they’re smart they’ll get another WR and then a OL to bolster their line.
A season ago I might agree we could get him, but I find it hard to believe they’ll give him up now he’s having his best season as a pro.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James The Aussie on Nov 29, 2009 11:39 PM EST reply actions
Yeah
I don’t foresee it happening. But you never know… if the right guy falls to them in the 1st round, they might snag him.
This was pretty much just a “I hope because I’m a Utes homer” thing. The other QBs I have planned are more likely to be available to the Panthers.
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It's a shame that he's gotten better actually.
I always liked Alex Smith and seemed to be a guy in the wrong place at the wrong time. Now the 49ers have receiver you’re starting to see him ability.
I actually suggested a deal 5 weeks ago that involved us sending Steve Smith to the 49ers for our 1st rounder back, Alex Smith and WR Josh Morgan. This was before Smith was renamed the starter.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James The Aussie on Nov 29, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
I think Brady Quinn could be a target
Mangini will want his guy at QB, and Quinn/Anderson are not his guy. He has Ratliff on the bench, but I don’t think he’ll roll with just Ratliff. Quinn could be had for a fourth or fifth round pick. Or Delhomme. ; )
by Flowing Willow on Nov 30, 2009 2:29 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe
but Quinn has looked really bad.
I wouldn’t give up more than a 5th for him… which might not be enough.
Plus, his money obligations are probably really high… and we’re near the limit, I think
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I haven't thought Quinn looked too bad
Either pick him up if the Browns cut him, or trade a fifth for him, I’m sure that would do it. The players and offense around him have really restricted Quinn, again, from only about the game and a half I’ve seen.
by Flowing Willow on Dec 1, 2009 2:19 AM EST up reply actions
TYhat would have been brilliant.
That first round trade of ours is now starting to bite us in the butt more and more…..
trade steve smith are you insane
that would break my heart as bad as the eagles letting dawkins go :(
It hurts, but look at what we get back.
A starting caliber QB, a good 2nd or 3rd option WR and a (likely) top 15 pick you can turn into Dez Bryant, Golden Tate or any other WR you wish.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James The Aussie on Nov 30, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions
It'd suck, yes. Especially as a Utes & Panthers fan. But...
here’s the thing… Smith is getting older. The team needs to improve in many areas at once, and he’s one of the few trade chips.
It’d hurt to trade him, but maybe it’s time for the team to realize that Smith himself cannot be our WR core. And if it takes trading him for the brass to realize that, maybe that’s the way to go.
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RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
Again, the problem is not getting the right player.....
It is for what cost?
Alex Smith is unreachable unless the Panthers want to try to give up more draft picks in a trade.
We are stuck. Period.
We have to groom either AJ Feeley or Matt Moore, and then draft a heir apparent. Jake will have to restructure his contract. Then have an all and all battle for the starting spot next year.
Unfortunately, it has to be with a new coach. I see no other way around it now after John’s stubborness to sit Jake out yesterday at halftime. Jake resulted to nothing more than chucking the ball into the air and hoping we came down with it.
jason campbell
campbell can flat out play. i say we sign him when he becomes a free agent and cut jake altogether. at the same time, we should still draft the best available qb with our first pick, somewhere in the second round. i think we should go that route, sign peppers to a long-term deal, and then go after another receiver in the draft or FA or somewhere. i think we have enough talent in all other positions to win it all, but the execution is lacking, and the injuries hurt, obviously. next year, with those changes, a new coach, and a healthy thomas davis, jordan gross, and others, we should be competitive and make the playoffs. how long is it until opening day next season?
I like Campbell
I think he’s a wrong place, wrong time QB who needs an out.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James The Aussie on Nov 30, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
I have never really thought about Campbell
Makes sense to bring Campbell in at a cheap rate to grow while we groom someone else (Matt Mooreor draft pick).
I have no problem keeping Jake, but at a significantly reduced rate. He has made us what we were, and that has value. (and I don’t mean financial)
I've been saying this for a while...
Campbell could be a very good QB in this league. If you could get him in a stable system, behind a decent O-line, he’d be a lot better.
I like Campbell the best...
I think we could get him cheap.
Either him, or stick Moore/Feeley in for 2 years to groom a draft pick.
The way I see it...
Sign Campbell (if available) or another solid veteran, draft the best available QB in the second round, and resign Moore (or maybe Feeley). Let them fight it out for the starting position in TC and the Preseason.
As UtesFan89 has pointed out, Smith is intriguing. BUT, the way he is playing, SF will keep him and not draft another QB. I don’t think he’s worth trading for right now. If he was released, then he would be a good option.
It seems like Pike might make it to us in the 3rd...
I don’t know if we hope for that (provided things remain the same, which is highly unlikely), or reach for him in the 2nd…
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back-up QBs
how many back-up QBs over the last two seasons have come in and played well? Dennis Dixon looked good for his first real live action. Josh Johnson showed potential, but he is a raw talent for sure. There is Matt Cassel from last year, of course. Tavaris Jackson is a back-up, and Sage Rosenfels played well in relief last year for Schaub. Fitzpatrick is playing well now in Buffalo – just ask T.O. – and so Trent Edwards may be cut in February also. The Jets do have Clemens on the bench, Henne has played well for Miami, Thigpen is on the bench in KC, and Brady Quinn is clearly better than Derek Anderson. So do I have a point? Not really. It’s just that there are plenty of quality QBs out there who can play better than 8 TDs/18 INTs and we can’t seem to find one on our roster.
Just a minor note...
Thigpen is actually on the bench in Miami
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i didn't know
i had no idea thigpen was in miami. so brodie croyle is the definite #2 in KC, I’m assuming.
Yeah, I guess.
Which can’t be a good thing for KC…
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RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
No to Brady Quinn and Alex Smith.
Look really it is very hard to get a franchise QB and with a new coach that us Carolina Panthers better see you have to say that it is time to draft a QB . Tony Pike gets my vote for the QB of the future for the Panthers and I would go as far as to say that we should draft to QB’s.
Josh Johnson, Brady Quinn, Alex Smith, Derek Anderson and you think Delhomme is bad man plz… you cannot be serious right now.
Jason Campbell could be the right guy but as stated above he needs a solid O-Line and run game to help take pressure off of him and Panthers still need a #2 WR to take pressure off of Smitty.
Go Panthers.
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Nov 30, 2009 4:27 PM EST reply actions
That's assuming QBs fall to us in the draft
which there is no guarantee of. Especially Pike. And drafting 2 QBs, with this coaching staff, is stupid because they don’t seem to enjoy developing QBs. So then neither one develops, and we’re stuck in the same boat 3 or 4 years from now.
And, honestly… of Josh Johnson, Quinn, Smith, Anderson & Delhomme… Delhomme is one of the last guys I’d want leading my team. Not just this season, but especially in the next couple of seasons. The other guys are all young, have talent and are stuck playing with crappy talent around them (well… except Smith now, who’s playing better with the talent around him)… and I’d like to believe that the Panthers have more talent than those teams.
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What’s wrong with Johnson? The guy is full of talent, just needs a decent offense and some time to settle in. He was in and out so fast, he never really had a chance to get his feet set.
He played decently well considering the team he was playing for, just got obliterated against the Giants, Philly, and New England (That being when the Giants and Philly were looking hot earlier in the season). Freeman has done just as decent, though I won’t say better simply because he hasn’t faced near the talent on the other side of the ball, yet.
I’d love to have Josh Johnson.
Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!
Exactly
throw in that he needed time to develop after playing at a small school (San Diego), and he hasn’t looked all that bad. Sure, he didn’t impress like Joe Flacco (talk about hitting a sophomore slump) or Matt Ryan, but he wasn’t too bad.
Sure, he needs to work on some things, but I believe that if he’s given the shot, he’ll get better.
True Blue Jazz
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RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
my note
the guys i mentioned above (johnson, quinn, smith, anderson) are guys i think could have played better than jake this year, but would not be the long term solution. if any of those guys were our #1, we would probably still need to draft a qb. i think johnson and quinn can be superstars in this league, but maybe a couple years from now. right now, they’re not ready, and we don’t have time to wait on them. it’s time to win now.

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