Carolina Panthers’ Hump Day Prognostication (New York Jets edition)

by James The Aussie on Nov 25, 2009 9:47 AM EST Comment 4 comments

Good morning Panther faithful and happy hump day! As I said in a previous post I'm not really sure if this Wednesday is technically a hump day due to the holiday, but I do know it feels like an eternity before getting to see more Panther football, and I can't wait!

Sunday's game between two 4-6 teams represents two clubs who had high expectations in 2009 but fell flat. The Panthers were heavily favored in the NFC South in the 2009 offseason. Meanwhile Jet fever started a little later, as a 3-0 start coupled with a victory over the New England Patriots started premature AFC East championship chatter and potential playoff success. Enthusiasm for both teams has since tempered with the Jets cooling off as quickly as they started, and the Panthers being completely erratic from week to week. It bodes to be an interesting game if nothing else.

How do the teams fare? Find out:

After the jump...

KEY MATCHUP: NY Jets run offense vs. Carolina run defense

Thomas Jones is a beast; there are no doubts about it. Jones represents the archetypal North- South runner who will hit your LBs in the mouth and more often than not push into your secondary. In 2009 he's averaging over 88 yards per game and 1 TD. He's a major threat.

Going into the season teams had good reason to fear the other Jets back, Leon Washington. Washington is lightning in a bottle, but since being placed on IR the Jets' Shonn Greene has shown that he can be more than a stop gap solution averaging 4.9 ypc on 44 carries. It is this tandem of Jones and Greene that has led the Jets to having the second best run offense in the NFL thus far.

Carolina's run defense is stretched about as thin as it can get at this point. Beason will still lock down the middle with aide from Hollis Thomas, but it's the edges that are hurting. The secondary will need to really help in run support, but as it stands it doesn't look great for Carolina's 26^th ranked run defense.

Edge: NY Jets

NY Jets pass offense vs. Carolina pass defense

Mark Sanchez is going to be a very, very good QB in this league, but he's not there yet. His season is representative of the Jets' as a whole, big promise early but faded in the stretch. It may surprise Panther fans, but Mark Sanchez has thrown 2 more INTs than Jake Delhomme and 100 yards less in 2009.

Jerricho Cotchery is a threat in the passing game, and Braylon Edwards needs to be accounted for, but in this matchup I like the Panthers' #5 pass defense over the Jets #28 pass offense

Edge: Carolina

Carolina run offense vs. NY Jets run defense

The Jets run defense is middle of the road, 16^th to be precise. They have some solid players on defense, but it's clear how much it hurt losing Kris Jenkins (Carolina fans should understand that loss more than most).

On the other side of the ball it will be incumbent upon John Fox and Jeff Davidson to give Double Trouble the reigns to the offense and let them run the show. There is no team in the NFL who can stop our running backs when they get the carries they need.

Edge: Carolina

Carolina pass offense vs. NY Jets pass defense

Two words, one player: Darrelle Revis. Revis may be the best young corner in the NFL (along with Oakland's Asomugha, in my mind). The young Jet has shut down almost every WR he's faced including Randy Moss twice. With only one true threat in the Carolina passing game in Steve Smith, Revis will have the ability to key in on him all day. Carolina's pass catching TEs have been more effective in recent weeks, but this is still one of the best pass defenses in the NFL we're facing.

Edge: NY Jets

Special Team

The song remains the same, much as it has most of the season. The Panthers' special teams are getting better, but they're still not good. Meanwhile, the Jets surpass us in KR and PR.

Edge: NY Jets

Coaching

What more can be said about Carolina's coaching? 2009 has been a never-ending series of pleasant surprises and crushing let downs by the coaching staff. Rex Ryan inherited a Jets team who he's trying to develop a hard nosed identity with. Meanwhile, John Fox has had years of knowing what this team's identity is and should be, then forgets it on Sunday.

In the end both teams are 4-6, there's no edge either way.

Edge: Push

Final Summary

Much like special teams, the song remains the same. Will we run the football? If we run the ball 30 times and pass 15-20 we win this game, it's as simple as that. What's not simple, however, is knowing what our coaching staff will do on Sunday. I know if Fox, Davidson and Co. choose to throw the ball 35 times we will lose this game, and lose badly.

If Carolina loses this game I see no conceivable way for them to make the playoffs, even in the less than weak NFC this season. I'd like to think the Panthers will fight to stay in the hunt, and that wills them to victory this holiday weekend.

Carolina Panthers 20 - NY Jets 14

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Comments

Yes...got to predict the victory

I think turnovers will determine this one for the Panthers. No turnovers by either team and its a crap shoot but hope our vet QB can outplay the rookie when the chips are down.

Our TE’s will be the key and Moose. We need James Anderson to play like he did in the preseason.

Panthers by 3…I’ll say 20 to 17

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Nov 25, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions

I think this is going to be one of the best games of the season..

I think Davidson is going to have his tail between his legs after last weeks pass-fest-failure and rely on Williams and Stewart to pound away at the D until they get tired. I feel like that’s the whole key we’re missing this year. Pounding on the D repeatedly, even when it is at first not working, wears them down as the game goes. Eventually, I think our backs are going to start running the Jets D over regardless. Even if we need to throw Sutton in there to spell Williams and Stewart (Yeah, I’m talking that much running). I don’t believe there’s a single team in the NFL that can stop Double Trouble. Honestly, I wouldn’t stop short of 20 carries a piece for Williams and Stewart – at least – unless one is clearly out performing the other..

On the other side, though, I think the Jets are going to do the same thing. They’re going to pound our D with Jones and Greene until the clock strikes zero in the fourth quarter.

I expect both teams to finished with well over 200 yards rushing. Depending on the split, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones get close, or succeed, 200 by himself.

That’s why I think this is going to be one hell of a game. If both teams play like I think they will, it’s going to be smash-mouth all the way from the gates and down the stretch, with a lot of back and forth.

The turn-over game is where it’s at. Watch out for Martin the Martian, he’s going to be flyin’ high.

Double Trouble; we've got the best running backs in the NFL that never see the ball!

by D-Ranged1 on Nov 25, 2009 12:15 PM EST reply actions

It'll help immensely if Hoover can play

From Steve Reed on Monday, it sounds like he might :

" Hoover has missed the last three games for the Panthers with a high ankle sprain, but said felt he better after running on Monday. "I felt like it was good enough for me to play on," Hoover said.
   He said he’s far from 100 percent, but added that he doesn’t necessarily need to be.
   "I knew when I did it it was going to be one of those things where it nags me all year. But all I need is to be functional and keep the swelling down and for it not be too painful," Hoover said.
   Said Jake Delhomme of Hoover: "He’s very valuable. What he does, run game, pass game, his smarts, his toughness and he’s looked up to. He’s held in high regard by players.""

by bigdavis on Nov 25, 2009 12:29 PM EST reply actions