Carolina Panthers' Monday Morning Optimist- 10/5/09
by James Dator on Oct 5, 2009 10:53 AM EDT
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As we sit here on a Monday after a bye week I'm feeling anxious; the same sort of anxiousness that accompanies the moments preceding the first kick off of a new season. The reason for this is simple, our season starts now. There are scant few fans who wouldn't like a mulligan on the first three games of the season. Not just because we are sitting here 0-3, but because we didn't play Carolina Panther football. It is for this reason I'm now of the mindset that the loss in Arlington was a good thing. Obviously we'd prefer to be 1-2 than 0-3, but without that loss perhaps the players wouldn't have gotten quite the butt kicking they deserve in the bye-week, perhaps without that loss the coaching staff wouldn't know big changes had to be made, without that loss maybe their feet would be slightly out of the fire... and we need some toes to be burning to turn this season around.
I think the most overused phrase in football is ‘must win game'. For the Panthers, we've apparently had two ‘must wins games' against the Falcons and the Cowboys, and we lost them both. From where I sit however, neither were ‘must win games', neither one made us mathematically ineligible to make the playoffs. We can discuss the rarity of 0-3 teams making the playoffs until we're blue in the face, we can crunch every number and we can assume defeat... or, we can look at the 2009 Panthers like our 2003 team. Nobody expected that team to make the Superbowl, nobody thought a team who won seven of their eleven regular season games by less than three points could make any noise in the playoffs, yet we did.
I'm not comparing the talent in '03 to now, they are entirely different teams. What I am saying, however, is that if any fan base should be expecting their team to buck the trend, it's us. As we approach the Washington game this week we are sure to hear again about how this is a ‘must win game' and how our season will be over without a win. Ultimately though, Sunday's game has far greater implications than a win or a loss, or the 2009 season as a whole. I characterize the game against the Redskins not as a ‘must win' but as a ‘must improve'. The fact is, if the team has not used the bye week as a gut check at every level, and we return to the form we displayed in the second half against the Cowboys, then not only is this season done, this era is done. This is the week for the coaching staff to show they can return this team to playing Foxball, Carolina Panther football, Cardiac cats ball... call it what you may, but if the Panthers can't show us this week that any kind of improvement has been made, then prepare yourselves Panther fans, because we will be witnessing the end of the John Fox era.
Thankfully though, I still have faith. I don't think we're going to see that second half Dallas team in Charlotte on Sunday. I think we'll see a return to what we do best; running the ball, controlling the clock, letting our all-pro WR shine, and choking the opposing offense with defense speed. I know as the week goes on CSR will deliver all the fantastic lead up to Sunday's game, breaking down each and every aspect of the contest, so I'll leave that writing up to more apt hands. What I will do, however, it look at a few key areas and let you know if I'm optimistic, or pessimistic about our chances.
- Our Running Game: Washington allowed 4.8 ypc from Cadillac Williams yesterday, and Tampa's Williams is not our Williams... DeAngelo and J-Stew should be able to have a big day (provided they get the ball). - Extremely Optimistic
- Washington's Offense: From a scoring perspective, they've been dismal. Their season average in scoring is 14 points. When our defense can hold Dallas and Atlanta below their season average in points... so provided we can do the same to Washington we'll be in good shape. - Extremely optimistic
- Their Running Game: Clinton Portis has only managed 3.9 ypc this season against porous run defenses Detroit, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. If he can only put up similar numbers against us we should be in good shape. - Somewhat optimistic
- Chris Cooley: For the third game in a row we face one of the league's elite tight ends. We have been unsuccessful in stopping TE's this season, and Cooley is a big time target for Campbell. - Somewhat pessimistic.
70% optimistic heading back into BoA against the Redskins. Our season starts now, and I think finally we get the monkey off our back.
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Nice read
I still dont think Fox is going anywhere, especially if they finish around 7-9, 8-8, even 6-10. I just dont see Richardson stepping up & firing him unless they go 3-13 or something.
Last, we saw how the Panthers performed coming off bye weeks last year(Oakland & Arizona games). Im just hoping they dont repeat the same performance this time. But luckily, the football season is a marathon & not a sprint, so lets hope they’ll get it together & finish respectable starting Sunday.
"it's a bad day to have a bad day"
jake
jake’s worst games ever have come after not playing the week before. i’m sure i’m not the only one to notice, so i’m going to assume jake is gonna play better based on my own wants.
Last year...
They rested Jake’s arm during the bye weeks. It tightened up during the games. Hopefully, they had him throw a little this last week to keep it loose.
i believe
that if we did not have a 1st round bye, we would’ve went to the superbowl, but jake plays horrible after a week off. ask the eagles. everyone said he would play better in week 2, and he did. he still has 9 turnovers in 3 games, but if jake can play similar to his week 2 performance and the defense can play like they did in week 3, then we should get a win easy.
Let's not forget we absolutely destroyed the Skins last yr in pre-season
Yes, I know what you’re all objecting, the pre-season means nothing, and that was over a year ago.
But my point is that the Panthers are VASTLY more talented than the Skins.
And despite our 0-3 start, and the Skins 2-2, the bookies have installed us as early 3 1/2 point favorites.
I am way more than 70% optimistic that we win this game. Cooley, shmooley.
Bold statement...
“if the Panthers can’t show us this week that any kind of improvement has been made, then prepare yourselves Panther fans, because we will be witnessing the end of the John Fox era.”
I have to agree. I like Fox, but if he isn’t helping the team win consistently, which could mean a winning record this year, then he may very well be replaced.
Winning keeps the fans interested and if Jerry looks out across an empty stadium in another third quarter….he will have to respond. Football is a business.
Another question, which is very pessimistic I know, but are they just holding off the inevitable with the upcoming games? The team we have seen the first three games have a tough schedule ahead in which they have little chance of winning many games, including the division rivals the Saints twice and the Falcons which aren’t half bad either.
Good Post James!
I want to make it clear that I’m not saying a loss against Washington means Fox is gone, but rather if they haven’t made any strides this bye-week and we are still making the same mistakes with no improvement, then the season will get away from us and the plug likely pulled.
As for delaying the inevitable… funny things can happen in the NFL. What happens in Drew Brees gets injured next week? or Matt Ryan? Can those teams perform without their QBs? You just never know. I’m sure the Dolphins didn’t expect Tom Brady to get injured last season… furthermore, I’m not willing to conceed defeat to a Saints team we’ve had under control for years and a Falcons team we barely lost to.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
I understand...
however; if they can’t win against the Redskins with extra time to heal and prepare, the rest of the season dosen’t look to inspiring and neither does Fox’s future here.
True…funny things can happen….and we can play the “What if” game from here to the end of the season. However, based solely on how the Panthers have played thus far, the rest of the season does not look very hopeful. I will try to remain opotimistic.
Good article!
This next week against the Redskins is a game we should statistically, on paper, be able to beat. We do have the defense to shut them down as long as we cause pressure on the QB, whether we use the blitz or not. Clinton Portis is either done or getting close to it, he’s not going to be able to be much more than a power, bruiser goal-line back nowadays.
I believe you James when you say that if any team should be able to buck the trend, it’s us. I hate to play the devils advocate, but the biggest problem this season hasn’t been the Panthers on the field. It’s been our coaches on the sideline. They’ve continued time and time again to run the team based on their philosophy and not on what will work with our team.
We have the capability to route these Redskins by a large margin. But in order do to that, we need to
1. Cause pressure on the QB and shut down Jason Campbell. We did this very well during the 1st half of Dallas by switching up the blitzing with our linebacker core. We need to get back to that since it works, and stick with it all game.
2. Get back to running the football. Make use of the star you have in the backfield. Duh. Give Jake Delhomme the ball on 3rd and 2, not 3rd and 10 or 15. And when you do run the balls, run the balls towards the ends, not the middle. You have the big fat man in Albert Haynesworth sitting right in the middle of the D-Line, and if you call draw and dive plays up the middle poor Williams will be turned into a pancake.
3. Get back to tackling. The Panthers have to be the worst tackling team in all of football. Grab a jersey, hold onto it, and drag that guy down. Don’t just pop people with their shoulders and expect for them to roll over for you. You do that to Clinton Portis, and he’ll just laugh and kick your face.
4. Spread the ball around. Moose is on the downside of his career. Though you can’t give him the deep ball anymore, he’s still a possession-type receiver. We have two solid options in him and The Ghost of Wesley Walls at TE. Chandler made a wonderful article on him right here just the other day. The best way to keep Steve Smith from being flustered is to do things not to frustrate him. Go through your reads and stop depending so much on him and give other players the chance to make a play too.
We fix the playcalling and calm Jake down, play a balanced game of run and pass and get back to smash-mouth tackling football with pressure on the QB and it will be a good game for the Panthers. We still have not lived up to the potential of our team. That is a good thing my friends, not a bad thing.
You just wished we found our potential before we were 0-3.
"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
1. Cause pressure on the QB and shut down Jason Campbell. We did this very well during the 1st half of Dallas by switching up the blitzing with our linebacker core. We need to get back to that since it works, and stick with it all game.
The problem with that idea is that it assumes the other team is too stupid to make adjustments to this gameplan. To wit: We didn’t stop linebacker blitzing in Dallas just for the hell of it, we did it because Dallas was negating it by running the football more and throwing screen passes, and their offensive line generally being more stout.
What we actually need is the defensive line to play better. Linebacker blitzing is great, and we should do it more often, but having to solely rely on it for pressure only masks a much bigger problem, one which any competent team can take advantage of.
by SlayerGhaleon on Oct 5, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying that we don't need any pressure on the D-Line.
But we just don’t have the personnel to actually do that this year. Face it, who do we have along our D-Line that will make plays. Julius Peppers? He doesn’t even look like he’s on the field sometimes, they’re taking him out of the play with TE’s. Everette Brown? He still have a lot of development to do, he can’t be a starter yet. At defensive tackle we’re forced to scrape the bottom of the barrel in FA, making it a challenge to even have a full roster for when gameday comes around.
It’s nice to say that our defensive line needs to play better. Realistically, it’s just not going to happen consistently, at least for this year. The only two sacks against Dallas came from our linebackers, and when the linebackers were not coming up Tony Romo had all day. Pressure from our front seven is better than no pressure at all from our front four. Sure, it’s masking a bigger problem along our D-Line. It’s better than just letting the other team take advantage of said problem and winning a football game with general ease. It’s better than dropping all three linebackers into pass coverage and hoping that the QB will make a mistake with no one to force him to make one.
Besides, what’s going to happen to Portis when they try a running play off the left end and Thomas Davis comes free without a block?
NOM NOM NOM!
"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
Great post James. I think we have good talent on this team. The thing holding them back is this more than blah coaching and playcalling. Much has been made of us abandoning the run way to early in games. This team was built for strong running and power football, not airing it out 70% of the game.
The playcalling must get better and the game preparation must get better.
I agree with your statement on Fox and this staff if they lose. It will be the end of the Fox era in Carolina. I’m not sure if he would get booted mid-season, but it would be the end of Fox.
Member of Canes Country and the Cat Scratch Reader
I think you are confusing Stats with Math
You can be statistically ineligible, yet still mathmatically eligible. Many years you could be 0-7, and not be eliminated. But statistically, 0-7 teams don’t make the playoffs. 0-3 is statistically pretty close to impossible. And 0-4, I’m not sure that’s ever happened.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 5, 2009 2:31 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think the first half, or quarter if it really doesn’t produce at least mildly, should be spent splitting carries between Williams and Stewart inside and out, with a few (or, better yet, a couple. Vote No On Fumbles) screens to Goodson, just to keep the backs fresh and revolving. Around the second half we should start attempting to attack the corners and see if they still have enough wind to keep up with a still fresh Williams.
Overall, though, if we can just get the wheels of these running backs moving consistently (by, um, just giving them the ball) I’ll be happy.
I’d like to see a few plays utilizing two running backs, with a screen option to either side. Snap, check the defense, and hit the man who appears to have the best chance of gaining a first down. I believe in playing 10 yards at a time, and anything more is a bonus.
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