Is Julius Peppers' lack of performance justifiable?
by James Dator on Oct 3, 2009 3:53 PM EDT
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Among the collective consciousness of Carolina Panther fans there seem to be two players who have firmly cemented themselves as public enemies no.1 and no.1-A during this recent slump; I am talking, of course, about Julius Peppers and Jake Delhomme.
On the surface, it is clear why these players are garnering so much attention. Quarterbacks always have their feet in the fire and are expected to perform each and every week; as for Julius Peppers, his crime is being regarded around the league as our standout player, and difference maker on defense, but one who is wildly inconsistent.
Delhomme has made some measured improvement, moving from absolutely horrible in week one, to passable as we sit in the bye week. Julius, however, made some big plays against the Eagles when the game was unwinnable, and has since disappeared, thus fans want answers for this lack of production. Is it the offseason issues? Is it because he doesn't want to play here? Is he trying to force a trade? Is it all of the above?
Yesterday on WFNZ Michael Lombardi said of Julius Peppers:
He's a great sack guy, but not a great pressure guy... and you need a great pressure guy.
I found this statement curious. Oftentimes the argument to defend Julius Peppers is centered on explaining how much pressure he gets that doesn't result in sacks. We have not seen this pressure from Julius this season, and it was interesting to see a respected NFL analyst typify Peppers as little more than a sack machine.
What I am going to be looking at is comparing Peppers' performance against the Eagles, Falcons and Cowboys to other defensive ends (or in the case of 3-4 defenses look at the ROLB who is primary pass rusher) and see how they faired against these teams to form a crude, rudimentary ‘performance average' and see if Julius Peppers met that performance average, exceeded it, or fell flat. This is the opportunity to give him the benefit of the doubt, so for the sake of this piece I will not be talking about his contract... this is purely an analysis of on field performance.
Philadelphia Eagles
Julius Peppers' performance: 5 Tackles, 1 Sck, 2 PDef, 1 FF
Other RE's/ROLB's who have faced the Eagles: Charles Grant (NO), Tamba Hali (KC)
Overall Performance Average: 2.6 tackles, 0.33 Sck, 0.66 PDef, 0.33 FF
Peppers vs. Eagles: Vastly outperformed the performance average against Philadelphia. Julius doubled the number of tackles, had a third more than the average number of passes defended and had sacks and forced fumbles to the factor of three. He did his job, and more against Philadelphia.
Atlanta Falcons
Julius Peppers' performance: 2 Tackles
Other RE's/ROLB's who have faced the Falcons: Jason Taylor (MIA), Pierre Woods (NE)
Overall Performance Average: 1.3 Tackles, 0.33 Sck
Peppers vs. Falcons: Clearly, teams are having problems getting to Matt Ryan from a statistical standpoint. Atlanta have been utilizing 3 step drops thus far and ensuring the ball leaves Ryan's hand quickly. Despite only registering two tackles against Atlanta, Peppers exceeded the performance average for tackles and was only slightly behind the sacks total.
Dallas Cowboys
Julius Peppers' performance: 2 Tackles
Other RE's/ROLB's who have faced the Cowboys: Gaines Adams (TB), Osi Umenyiora (NYG)
Overall Performance Average: 1 Tackle
Peppers vs. Cowboys: Like Matt Ryan, teams are having a hard time getting their traditional pass rushers to Tony Romo. Thomas Davis had great success against Dallas because he gave them an untraditional look as a rusher. Peppers again exceeded the performance average as dictated by other DE's around the league.
What does this all mean?
In short, Pepper's performance is exceeding the rest of the league against these teams. I know it is strange to read that, as I found it just as curious while compiling the data. However, when you average out the performances by each player the same or similar position as Julius Peppers it becomes clear that he's actually playing pretty well against these teams.
Panther fans are used to seeing big, dominant numbers from Peppers, and when he doesn't perform to expectation then we get emotional and are rightfully concerned. He is considered one of the top DE's in the league, so we should be seeing those numbers... right? The truth is there are so many other factors to consider, offensive scheming, play calling, blocking schemes and more. Though it appears Julius is getting taken out of plays a lot and not making any noise on the right side, from a purely statistical standpoint he is exceeding the play of other at his position against these same teams.
I will be continuing to analyze the play of Julius Peppers each week in the Monday Morning Optimist, continuing to look at his performance from week to week and comparing it to the overall performance average (OPA) against said team. I have been vocally critical of Julius Peppers play this season, but after looking at these numbers, maybe we should all give him a second chance; at least for now.
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Agreed.
And let’s not forget his blocked kick against Philly, too.
For some reason, I was operating under the impression than Osi had a big game against the Cowboys. Clearly not. One tackle isn’t a big game, no matter how you draw it up. Not that Pep’s 2 tackles is a laudable performance in itself, but there you have it.
Still. It’s really, REALLY hard, even for someone as optimistic as myself, to look at 2 tackles and say “Yep. That’s a Million Dollar Performance right there.” I honestly did say that during the Philly game, because he was a real force out there. But that was in between slapping my forehead and throwing my arms up because of what Jake was doing.
by r3 on Oct 3, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely, I think the money is the deciding factor in the minds of alot of fans. It’s tough to justify anyone as 20% of the cap, let alone someone failing to put up equal numbers to 2008.
Ultimately, I just wanted to look at Pep the player, not the salary cap burden and see what kind of player he has been.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
What it came down to is the Panthers
couldn’t let him walk even though in hindsight its was the best thing for the team. We could have went 0-3 without him! ;)
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Valuable insight
I’ve not seen any similar comparison as you formulated — very useful to compare player vs team stats. I’m as surprised as you were to see what’s come from it thus far.
There’s been a lot of criticism of Peppers centering on his “padding” his stats against weaker teams, and being less productive vs the stronger ones — what you show through the 3 games involving our opponents may indicate that’s true of all who play his position.
I Look forward to your ongoing analysis. Thanks.
Awesome post. I’m sure seeing the rest of the team crumble around him has played a role in all of the negativity.. Just think, if we were 3-0 right now, with those same stats, he’d probably be something close to a hero. However, being a team effort, when the team looks bad, typically everyone looks bad. If I were to ask a friend, right now, “Who is Carolina’s Stand Out Player?”, I bet 95% of them would simply laugh despite both Stewart & Williams carrying a mid 4.3 & 4.4yd average (not the greatest, but once again, look at what opportunities they’ve had… Just about none and they are still getting it done) and, as you just stated, Peppers exceeding at his position.
Once again, though, great post.
I expect him to be better
You said it yourself….Peppers did not produce until the Philly game was well in hand. Those Philly stats in which the game was already decided are absolutely carrying your argument because that is the only game he actually recorded stats. I’m glad he got a sack but I’m not that excited at the time it occurred (down by 28 points in the 4th qtr).
I find it ludicrous that you claim Peppers did better than league average against Atlanta. Well, for one, the comparison is a bit weird because your comparing him exactly with players in a different defensive formation/scheme, but if you must compare…..Jason Taylor had a sack but since other players did nothing that brings the average down. BUT Peppers had one more tackle than the average so therefore Peppers is “exceeding performance”? Nah, that doesn’t make a bit of sense.
Who cares if Peppers got one more tackle than the guys before him? Does that make him better? Are tackles really the best judgement of how good a DE is? Teams are running all over us, of course he’s gonna get more tackles because he’s going to have more opportunities to tackle a ball carrier. The Panthers have had the 5th most rushing attempts against this year. Should Peppers be rewarded for being a part of a struggling run defense and therefore picking up more tackles? I don’t think so.
I will not be encouraged by Peppers having two tackle games in the future. He’s not getting after the quarterback. In summary, no, I don’t think Peppers is producing at the level he should be and that to me is pretty obvious.
Side Note: I don’t hate Peppers, I just think he is underperforming. I don’t boo Peppers at games, I cheer when he does well, probably harder than others.
Like I said in the article, I'll continue to compare every week... and we'll see where it goes.
I wasn’t trying to say that Peppers was exceeding his own performance, or exceeding his ‘expected’ numbers from the fans. All I was attempting to do is see how other players in similar situations performed and compare Pep to a rudimentary ‘league average’.
If you read my optimist article this week you’ll know I’ve been brutally harsh on Peppers this season, but like a lot of 2009 thus far if he comes back and gives us 1.5 sacks a game for the rest of the season, no harm, no foul.
I feel your frustration, I really do… I just think after stepping back and letting a cool head prevail made me realize that 95% or the ire aimed at Peppers is based on his contract.
Here’s some more food for thought, his stats through the first 3 games last season, compared to this season:
2008: 7 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 FF, 0 PDef, 0 Kicks Blocked
2009: 9 tackles, 1 sacks, 1 FF, 2 PDef, 1 Kick Blocked
Is he really under performing compared to last season?
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
i agree with R-F
but i have to be honest, it’s analysis like yours that makes CSR better than any other Panthers’ website. I’ll be looking forward to these analysis, and unless you make the numbers up yourself, others cannot argue against the numbers you post. we’ll see.
also, blocked kicks are so much more important than sacks. his ability to block kicks is truly underappreciated as he seems to do it two or three times a year.
Compared to last year?
No, it is not underperforming at all. But we’re comparing this start to an equally lackluster start last year. He started off poor last year and came on strong. Hope he does it again, but to this point he has severely underperformed. He hasn’t made a play on a quarterback in a meaningful point during a game (2.5 games) so far this season. He is on pace for six sacks for the year. A decent number, but not great for a guy like him. That would be his second lowest total out of his seven years in the league. He’s underperforming.
I have no qualms with his contract. I think it is fair. If you’ll notice, I never once bring up the reasoning about how Peppers is getting paid so much, he should be producing more. I just think Peppers should be better based on his talent and what I have seen him do in the past.
I think you kind of missed the point… He wasn’t analyzing what we fans think Peppers should be doing.. but what the numbers say. Going by his method, yes, one tackle does make him statistically better. Once again, going by his method, yes, Peppers is exceeding performance. Statistically, not personally.
It may not be the performance we all want, but it’s better than the others, so what are we to do? I don’t think Clark Kent is accepting offers at the moment.
Regardless how well Peppers does play, we’re not going to see drastic improvement until everyone starts playing well.
Well
I thought I addressed what his numbers say and what asssertions he was making. I don’t think one could draw many asssertions from his comparisons. Just because Peppers gets one or two more tackles than the guys before him means nothing. We are 5th in the league in rushing attempts against us. Of course Peppers might get another tackle or two because he’s getting more opportunities to tackle a ball carrier. Teams are running it down our throat. Plus, tackles for a DE mean very little, especially the difference between 1 or 2.
Just because his stats are “better than others” means very little to me, unless they are by far alot better. Right now, his stats are better because of a sack in garbage time and an extra tackle or two. So now it is a good thing when Peppers is just barely above league average? When did that become so? So Peppers might have better stats than Pierre Woods….great for him, but that doesn’t mean he is playing at a high level. Jason Taylor got a sack against Atlanta. Peppers couldn’t muster even a QB hurry. Jason Taylor is an elite pass rusher. Is Peppers? He should be.
Look, I realize there are other circumstances that might lead to Peppers not getting to the QB. For one, like I mentioned earlier, teams are running it all over us. That certainly slows a pass rush. We have also faced (by all accounts) some teams that are pretty good at protecting the passer. But Peppers is supposdedly an elite DE – and it is clear that SO FAR, he is not performing to the level expected of him (IMO, much better than just league average). One or two more tackles than league average doesn’t change that for me.
You can point to the FF or blocked kick and extrapolate that over a season and say WOW he’s gonna get 6 of those, he’s great! But until he starts getting more consistent pressure on the quarterback – maybe even some pressure during a meaningful situation – he’s underperforming for him.
Tackles for a DE aren't meaningless
It either means your DE is fast enough to catch up to the ball or he is getting the ball carrier before he hits the second level.
Peppers this season is underperforming based on our expectations of him, based on the league average and the average of others in close to the same situation, he’s exceeding expectations.
by Flowing Willow on Oct 5, 2009 3:48 AM EDT up reply actions
When
We are talking about the difference between 2 tackles or 1, yes that difference is meaningless. He has a low enough number to where it really isn’t meaningful and that difference can easily be explained by the large amount of rushing attempts against us this year. More opportunities to tackle the ball carrier = more tackles for everyone. That doesn’t mean he’s good.
Compared to others who are worse than him, I would say he is exceeding expectations. Compared to the league average, I would say he is “exceeding expectations” based on a few extra tackles and a sack in garbage time when we were down 28 points.
But does that make him good? I can’t tell if you think this or not – but does the simple fact that Peppers is barely above average to the rest of the league make his lack of performance justifiable? I don’t think so. Shouldn’t Peppers be held to a much higher standard than the rest of the league?
But hey, if we can take positives out of two straight 2 tackle performances against teams that ran the ball 60 times against us, I’m all for it.
It's too early, after 3 games, to conclude anything.
I do like the method of evaluation that The Aussie has formulated — after 8-10 games, it’ll probably be clear, one way or the other, how he stacks up vs other DE’s who’ve played the same opponents.
Wonderful Article.
I still don’t like Peppers though. You look at other players in the NFL, Dwight Freeney, John Abraham, players whom are consistently providing pressure on the QB. What I would do to have one of those players on our team.
The difference I see between Peppers and other players is that players like Dwight Freeney and John Abraham are always causing pressure. Always pushing their guy back. Always threatening to get to the QB when they drop back to pass. That’s the part of the game that Peppers is missing.
He can get all the tackles he wants. A RB can just happen to run at his end of the line and Peppers gets the tackle. Until I see Peppers commanding double teams and pushing them back like we all know he can do, I won’t be satisfied with him.
"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
Never has Michael Lombardi’s comment been so accurate. I’m starting to wonder if the trade market for Peppers was so quiet this offseason due to him being a ‘sack machine’ rather than a ‘pressure player’.
The more and more I thought about what Lombardi said, the more it made sense. Perhaps the Panthers have been trying to fit a square peg into a round hole? Peppers himself wanted to be an OLB in a 3-4… perhaps his inherent skillset is better suited to this position than being a DE.
I know it sounds ridiculous to say an 8 year pro is playing out of position, but Jason Taylor made the transition to OLB, perhaps Pep could do.
If he’s not making the impact we expect from him at DE why not start Brayton and Brown at the ends? Why not play Peppers at OLB, especially now when Diggs is injured?
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
4-3 OLB is a completely different monster than the same in the 3-4
More coverage responsibility is required. Still, that would throw a wrinkle in the defense. Pep does have great range, as long as he isn’t burnt by a TE, he could probably do a decent job in coverage. More than likely he should be a blitzer most of the time though, him and Davis coming in would be a nightmare.
by Flowing Willow on Oct 4, 2009 4:52 AM EDT up reply actions
position change
Jason Taylor has always been an undersized DE, so his switch was good for him. He played great football, though, as a DE, so it’s not like he needed the switch. Peppers would be great in a 3-4 in my opinion. He would be so much better against the run because he’d be able to react instead of rushing up one side when the play is to the other side. He has dropped back in coverage more than any other DE I have ever seen. In Trgovac’s last year, that almost seemed like the standard. So I think he would be okay covering RBs and TEs (not everyone is a CHester Taylor or Antonio Gates). Also, coming across the middle on a slant would be scary as hell for receivers 190 lb receiverd knowing Pep is in there.
Of course it’s all irrelevant since he’’s our DE in a 4-3. I just thought I’d throw in my 2 cents anyway.
I would be more open
To the notion that Peppers has been “underutilized” in a 4-3 if he weren’t so darn successful in it (most of the time).
I guess I’m looking at it from the perspective that sometimes as players age they find renewed production at other positions. Starting WRs have success out of the slot, corners move to safety, kickers focus solely on FGs and not on kickoffs.
I postulated in a previous comment a few months ago that maybe Pep is losing some of his strength advantage that used to allow him to dominate tackles. Thus, he has great success against weaker tackles, but can get shut down by stronger ones (see Ryan Clady last season).
Peppers himself wanted to be an OLB in a 3-4, so why not see if he can do it in a 4-3… especially when we have a talent like Everette Brown waiting in the wings.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Great idea, a couple comments.
I like the approach, but have a couple of questions. First, Peppers is playing at the RDE spot, right? So instead of using Charles Grant and Jason Taylor, why aren’t you using Will Smith and Joey Porter? That would be a wash where New Orleans is concerned, but Miami gets another tackle and loses a sack. You did the same thing for New England against Atlanta, using Pierre Woods instead of Adalius Thomas, which discounts production by three tackles.
Another thing you need to consider is the ROLB and RDE in 3-4 sets. In that defense the RDE will do better in run defense while the ROLB will look better in pass defense. If you want to equate them to a RDE in a 4-3 set you should average production for the two positions.
Yesterday the two Denver players accounted for seven tackles, one assist, and two sacks on Tony Romo. You can take Dumerville’s 3 tackles and 2 sacks, or you can choose Peterson’s 5 tackles, or you can combine them. Doing that, against Dallas that’s four tackles and a sack versus Peppers’ two tackles. Against Atlanta you replace Taylor’s 2 tackles and a sack with Porter/Starks’ averaged production of 2.5 tackles and no sacks, and you replace Woods’ 2 tackles with Thomas/Green’s 7.
So plugging in the right players, and using averages for 3-4 defenses, you end up with something like this.
Philly
Peppers 5, 1 / Avg 2.6, .33
Atlanta
Peppers 2, 0 / Avg. 3.25, 0
Dallas
Peppers 2, 0 / Avg. 3.33, .67
Overall averages
Peppers 3, .33 / Avg. 3, .33
And as quick as that Peppers starts looking pretty normal. This doesn’t really change if you don’t average the 3-4 OLB/DE’s either, it mainly changed because we switched to players on the same side of the field as Pappers.
And by the way, every player gets stats in garbage time. It’s not fair to Peppers to point out that his sack came then, without making the same examination of all other players’ tackles. We shouldn’t even be looking at that as an argument…
I think your "average" is a fairer assessment basis
I’m not sure about the other teams DE’s, but Pep plays LDE and RDE about equally this year. You would have to take the whole universe of DE’s for a true comp.
But I still like the idea of comparing his production to that of all DE’s playing against our specific opponents.
Well, other teams move their people around too
You have to go with the primary position, it’s the closest you can get to an apples to apples comparison.
All comparisons
Will be a little skewed anyways. What if Peppers would have gotten a sack with the 10 more passing attempts Dallas had against Denver that they didn’t have against us? Who knows. That is why you can’t just look at these comparisons to form an opinion about one persons performance. Too many variables involved.
I’m not saying these numbers weren’t a good talking point, but to just use these as a basis of judgement is a little weak IMO.
I don’t think any judgement has been made yet… I think the jury is still out. Pep started ‘08 very weak too, then came on to have 14.5 sacks. If he returns to that form, then I think we’ll all be excited.
We’ve become conditioned to expect more from him… and we should have high expectations, because he is that good (when he applies himself).
By no means do I think he should rest on his laurels and be happy that he is middle of the road, or mediocre… he should be blowing these numbers out of the water. This was more a litmus test to probe the argument that he is sandbagging on purpose, or not trying, or that if we played another DE and benched Peppers we would have different results.
I hope he turns it on like in 2008. So he can help the team win, and also make him more desirable when we ineviatably need to trade him.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Certainly
No basis on Peppers’ season has been made by anyone. I certainly did not claim a judgement for the rest of the season – and I don’t think I’ve seen anyone do the same.
If Peppers has 10.5 sacks in the final seven games again, this is all a very moot point. I also think that if we weren’t 0-3 right now that we wouldn’t be talking about this. But we’re losing and things aren’t going well, so I’m not surprised. It is what it is.
by R-F on Oct 5, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the additions Cyberjag.
I went by the team’s offical depth charts as listed on their websites. If there is an innaccuracy, thanks for letting me know. Both the Patriots and Dolphins’ sites had Pierre Woods and Jason Taylor respectively listed as a the strong side OLB, with Thomas and Portes as the weak side OLB. Furthermore, the Saints site had Smith listed as their LDE and Grant as their RDE. For the sake of this analysis I took Peppers as our RDE, where he is playing the majority of his minutes.
Like I said though, if that was innaccurate, I apologize.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
JP as a defensive leader.....
I have not yet been critical of JP’s performance so far this season, but he does not have a leader’s mentality. I don’t think he’s the type of guy to take the lead in any situation.
With that said, Beason has had to step up into that position as a seond-year player. I have no problem with that, but JP has the talent to dominate opposing offenses. I’m just disappointed in his lack of enthusiasm and passion for the game. JP, being one of the top players on the defense, needs to get emotional and passionate on every down. There a lot to be said for a team that wants to win and a team that just shows up.
The Panthers lack the passion and the emotion to come out and win. It seems to me that they’re just trying not to lose. That includes Peppers. With the exception of a few players (Beason, S.Smith, Davis), the Panthers are playing on auto pilot. Just collecting a paycheck. I blame Peppers for not acting like he wants to win. He needs to play like he cares, and maybe the rest of the team will follow. He has let the fans and the team down.
Where’s the passion for the game?
Chris196
I don't think the passion for the game is in him.
He reflects the stoic attitude of his head coach, accepting of the situation as it’s presented to him, rather than (say, as with Beason) raging against the storm. “It is what it is.”
I noticed Jason Taylor yesterday had a shoulder injury in the 1st quarter, came back in the game and got 2 sacks. Hard to imagine Peppers doing that. (But since it was vs Buffalo, he’ll have a chance in 3 weeks.)
You hit the nail on the head. Peppers is considered a superstar athlete at DE, one of the top five in the NFL, and when he doesnt perform up to those standards, the fans get impatient & call for his head. Ive said this before, Peppers gets unfair criticism from alot of fans.
"it's a bad day to have a bad day"
Not like you'll respond to this DWG, but...
Peppers has the talent to be the best all time. Problem is, he often plays like a practice squad player, except without the fire. Now I am one of Peppers supporters, but he has not played like he’s worth a million dollars. That is a fact. One player, even of Peppers ilk, is not worth that much cash that can be spent to improve depth at other areas.
by Flowing Willow on Oct 5, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
To add on to that
I’m not accusing Peppers for his salary, the NFL is take what you can when you can as soon as you can. I just think the Panthers can better spend that money.
by Flowing Willow on Oct 5, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Percentage
Can you do yur stats with the percntage of runs that went toward Peppers vs the number of runs that went against the other players? Like if Peppers had 3 runs toward him & he got 1 tackle he had 33% tackles , & the same with the other players?
That would require me to have game tape of all nine prospective games and be able to break down each and every play, add to that an impossible level of subjectivity (i.e. well, that player was within 3 yards of him, he should have made a play) and it makes it nearly impossible.
Even if I had all the tape, it’s a unenviable prospect.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Many of Peppers' tackles in the past have been made in pursuit (as I recall)
These would be less important in MrBernz estimation, when they may be more so.
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