Delhomme's Start Statistically Among Worst In Modern History
by Ryan Basen on Oct 23, 2009 3:21 PM EDT
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PrintA friend of mine was busy texting when one of the key plays of Sunday's 28-21 Carolina victory over Tampa Bay unfolded. As Buccaneer safety Tanard Jackson picked off a short Jake Delhomme pass and began his 26-yard return for the touchdown that ultimately tied the game midway through the fourth quarter, I tapped my buddy on the shoulder. I pointed at the T.V. a few feet in front of us and he lifted his head to watch.
"I hate Jake Delhomme," he said. He shook his head and could barely suppress a smile.
It has become comical, hasn't it? Even for Panthers fans. Five games into a season that began on the heels of a six-turnover performance in a shocking home playoff loss to the Arizona Cardinals, we are seeing a pattern emerge: Delhomme is a turnover machine. He has thrown 10 interceptions and fumbled three times, although the Panthers recovered two of those fumbles.
Here's the kicker: Delhomme is the NFL co-leader in interceptions thrown this season, even though he has only tossed 133 passes. That gives him a 7.5 percent interception rate (This means for every 40 passes Delhomme throws, three are picked off. Co-NFL interceptions leader Mark Sanchez of the Jets, by comparison, throws three picks every 50 passes).
That's not just bad, that is historically one of the worst five-game starts to a season in modern NFL history...
Delhomme's 7.5 interception percentage is the fourth-worst rate among quarterbacks to throw at least 10 picks in the first five games of a season since 1981, often recognized as the beginning of the modern era in the NFL. He is one of only 19 quarterbacks over the last 28 full seasons to be picked off 10 times through five games (the stats from 1987 are marred by the presence of replacement players for three of the first five games).
(Interestingly, 30 quarterbacks threw at least 10 interceptions in the first five games of a season from 1970-80).
Here are the top five of those 19 players, ranked in order of highest interception rate:
1. Steve Grogan, 9.0 percent, 10 picks, 1988 Patriots
2. Wade Wilson, 8.2 percent, 10 picks, 1991 Vikings
3. Jake Plummer, 7.6 percent, 12 picks, 1999 Cardinals
4. Jake Delhomme, 7.5 percent, 10 picks, 2009 Panthers
5. Dan Fouts, 7.4 percent, 14 picks, 1986 Chargers
To be fair, Matt Cavanagh of the 1981 Patriots and Steve DeBerg of the 1986 Bucs each threw interceptions at a higher rate than Delhomme through five games as well. Both were only picked off nine times. But regardless of Cavanagh and DeBerg, this much is clear:
Delhomme this season is throwing interceptions at a higher rate than any quarterbacks in 10 years. And he is among the most careless with the ball since 1981.
That trend does not bode well for the Panthers, or the Delhomme camp. Of the other four quarterbacks on that list above, only Plummer went on to enjoy success later in his NFL career. Grogan and Fouts retired shortly thereafter, and Wilson became a backup for the last few years of his career.
When you examine all the quarterbacks to throw at least 10 picks in the first five games of a season since 1981, it doesn't bode well for Delhomme either. Here are the other names on that 19-player list: Daunte Culpepper (2005 Vikings), Peyton Manning (1998 Colts), Vinny Testaverde (1988 Bucs), Vince Ferragamo (1985 Bills and 1983 Rams), Gary Hogeboom (1989 Cardinals), Paul McDonald (1984 Browns), Warren Moon (1993 and 1986 Oilers), Trent Dilfer (1996 Bucs), Mark Malone (1986 Steelers), Dan Marino (1986 and 1989 Dolphins), Hugh Millen (1992 Patriots).
Marino threw the ball a ton, and his interception percentage was not too high. Manning and 1986 Moon were early in their NFL careers and later turned into stars. Testaverde was in his second year.
But 1993 was the beginning of the end of good play for Moon -- much like it was for Fouts in 1986, Grogan in 1988, Wilson in 1991, Culpepper in 2005, and Ferragamo in 1983 and 1985. The other players were journeymen who never enjoyed as much success as Delhomme in the first place.
His play over five games does not guarantee the 34-year-old Delhomme is done as a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL. But history is clearly against him.
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Yawn
Must we continue to feed a beast that cannot be fed?
Why don’t we talk about how Stewart wasted a heads up play by Hollis Thomas by fumbling on a run inside the five yard line? now the first time that’s happened this year, either.
Because he is tied with 20 other running backs for 6th most fumbles
That’s a far cry from 4th most in history!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
It’s still a worrying trend, especially since last year they combined to lose one total fumble and thus far they have four. Also, D Will’s fumble in Atlanta played a large part in us losing that game.
But you know, it’s much easier to mindlessly hate on Jake and call him immature nicknames than it is to rationally discuss something wrong with our vaunted running game.
by SlayerGhaleon on Oct 23, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll make you a promise...
If over the next 5 games Stewart keeps fumbling, and winds up leading the league in fumbles, then I will give him the same grief as Jake. Until then, he needs to work on that, but Jake takes the crown.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Dude, please....
There is nothing mindless about not liking Jake Delhomme as the starting QB for your team. As the article clearly demonstrates, his play has been monumentally bad!
Now continuously turning a blind eye to his horrific play out of fanatic loyalty to the man could reasonably be termed “mindless.”
Not in itself no, but the way you and others have been going about expressing it(and the nitpicky information you use to justify it) sure is.
As for me, I have no fanatic loyalty to Jake Delhomme. My opinion is the same as James’s. We have no better option at QB right now. I’d rather not give a QB who isn’t any better a chance to start unless we’re mathematically eliminated from contention.
by SlayerGhaleon on Oct 23, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I find it hard to believe that Feeley or Moore could under perform Jake's last 6 game stretch
I mean, Fox is now resorting to just not letting Jake throw at all when the game is on the line… we haven’t seen a lack of confidence like that since Weinke.
And you think fans are upset now… If once we are mathematically eliminated, Moore or Feeley come in and win a few games, fans are going to be really ticked!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
One of the biggest problem is that Jake doesn't seem to be able to throw the deep ball anymore
I have a feeling that a young arm like Moore’s could hit a couple of those, that Jake is under or over throwing.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
So, if everyone is nitpicking information, what information can we savor from this season? (Oh, man, my wireless mouse died while I was trying to locate “positives” to focus on. Seriously.) Comparing our “slow start” running game to our “non-existent” passing game is… funny. I guess Delhomme’s 4 touchdowns & 11 turnovers to Williams & Stewarts combined 6 touchdowns & 4 fumbles clearly shows the problem is not Delhomme, yes, ‘I can see clearly now, the rain is gone’. Shame on these immature nicknames, how dare these people not put forth their utmost effort in remaining professional on a community fan blog.
Yeah, they only lost one fumble last year but I really wasn’t holding the belief that that would continue close to my heart, and I’m not too sure many were.. Delhomme only threw 12 interceptions last year, so I guess that means neither are perfect.
By the way, Williams and Stewart haven’t been too far displaced from the way they started the season last year. Jake, well, has. I, personally, would much rather debate how to “fix” our passing than our running game – at least until something is done to improve our air performance. Our RB’s have shown a spark of life… Our QB hasn’t quite succeeded at that yet.
Last year the deep ball threat kept defenses honest
Not the case so far this year. And if they dont figure it out then we won’t be running like last year anyways. So, we have to figure out our running game!
I still think passing more to TEs would be a great remedy.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 7:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Only in the redzone and on occasional 3rd and longs
And considering that when they are an option they out perform Smitty and Moose, only helps my case that they should be a target more often.
Sure line up Smith or Moore more often in the slot also. Anything other than going 2 wide every down.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I completely agree with both of you. I hate seeing them line up 2 wide, seemingly, every single play. I also agree utilizing the TE’s (more so than we do) would be a great idea. We have two great blockers at WR (Moose & Smith), if they’re not getting the ball, we could at least be calling some plays that utilize their blocking abilities.
This is the only dead horse
I will never get tired of kicking.
Because ALLLLLLLLLLL off-season long i had to hear all this Jake Failhomme love from just about everyone on this blog save a select few. All the while I said… “you’ll see” and here it is. The inevitable conclusion.
I hope he can turn it around and at least get back to where he only has the occasional terrible game, but I’m not holding my breath.
You did, I will give you that Tater
No one can accuse us of not keeping it real here. Nice job Ryan, even if some people are tired of talking about it. It puts it in perspective. It shows Jake is ready for one huge break out! I kid, I kid ;)
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
And I bought into that Failhomme love!
I supported Jake up until Arz, then wanted him out of town. But over the offseason these jokers coerced me into trusting him once again. But no longer! He will have to look like Drew Breeze for the next 5 weeks to regain my trust.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Jilted lover syndrome huh?
me too. I knew Jake was having a bad start that was obvious. I didn’t realize how bad though.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
Thank god we have a running game.
"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
LOL!
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
I've seen lot of the word "FailHomme" being used lately.
My friends have been calling him Jake Delh-Lob for years now, because they say he just lobs the ball out there for whoever to catch it. I think Jake has gotten so bad lately even Smitty can’t him look good anymore.
Relax
He’s just getting all of his interceptions out of the way early this year. He’s poised to become an offensive machine in the second half. ;)
Cyber
I noticed you post on the huddle…some pretty heated discussions going on over there eh?
I get a good laugh when people cannot seem to express themselves without getting upset.
The Huddle is funny
I’ve never seen a fan site that has more hate for the team it pulls for. Fun place to visit. :)
Extrapolation hardly ever works
The prediction or assumption that a trend will continue indefinitely is the most common method of losing all one’s money in stock investing. I say that from 45 years of professional experience in that business. When a “trend” is obvious to everybody, it is about to change.
Likewise, to extrapolate that the 10 INTs that Jake Delhomme has been (dis)credited with through 5 games will yield over 30 in a full season, is no more likely to occur than to Matt Schaub throwing over 44 TDs this year, or Elvis Dumervil logging over 30 sacks. In other words, stats can be used to support almost any claim or argument, but mean little when less than 1/2 a season has passed to generate them. There will be reversion to the mean: Dumervil will see new blocking schemes, Schaub will have passes dropped, and Delhomme will have fewer tipped passes find opponents’ waiting arms.
As a comment on those who find Jake’s 7.5% INT ratio alarming (10 INT’s/133 attempts)., and use that as a statistical reason to use Matt Moore as a replacement (“he couldn’t do worse!”) — note that Moore’s ratio is 9.1% (1 for 11 attempts). Now that’s being facetious — what I mean is that neither ratio means squat at this early juncture.
Don’t get me wrong; I’m not arguing that Jake has played well — (he hasn’t); or that he’s an above average QB the first 5 games of the season (he hasn’t been) — only that things tend to average out over time, and each game stands on its own.
Which brings to mind something else unrelated to this thread — I hope Jaxon will revisit that topic he started a few games ago, when he proposed to monitor Peppers’ relative sack performance, game by game, compared to other DE’s against common opponents. That might be fun to read.
You're Missing the Forest
It’s clear to everyone, Jake lovers as well, that he’s on the decline.
Few QBs come back from miserable years late in their careers. I’d put Favre and Warner at the top of a really short list, and Delhomme was never as talented as either to begin with.
That said, I say we let him start until we’re out of contention (6 losses). There’s something none of us are seeing with Moore, and Feeley isn’t acclimated to the offense yet.
by the bomb dot com on Oct 23, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
There are some holes in your trend philosophy
For example, I don’t think the trend of Drew Breeze being a top QB will change. And say, the trend of Chris Weinke sucking never changed.
Since Jake has never been a great QB and is known for having some really bad games, I think this is not really that surprising for many.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 7:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I referred more to the trend of numbers, and their extrapolation, statistically
The trend toward suckage doesn’t change, I grant you. But it still COULD be a short-medium term trend with Jake, and may be reversible. Better pocket protection, fewer tipped passes, varied play selection, and play action could combine to halt this seemingly irreversible flood of INTs. Could.
I sure hope so
And what’s with all the tipped passes? It’s nothing new for defenders in the box to get their hands up as the QB is throwing. Is Jake doing something differently to cause this to happen more often? Or is it because more teams are stacking the box?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Not saying its not bad..
but take into account how many passes were thrown into receivers hands and not caught, but instead tipped up for easy picks. Or how many of the receivers quit on a play or don’t go after it 100%. I have seen Moose and others not go after ball right in front of them. I know that does not make up for all of it but I’d venture to say half of his picks could have been avoided by better play from the receiving core. I like Moose and Smitty, but its just like when Steve admitted breaking a route which caused an INT, I remember a play where Moose kinda half-heart-idly jumped and kinda put his hands up in an attempt to look like his was trying while just letting the corner stand there and wait for ball. We cant lay all the blame on Jake. The first game was mainly the O-line which gave no time for any QB to make a pass. Which was confirmed again even with our backups in. Let’s give him a little credit. He’s been one of our better QB’s and his lifetime stats show he is a decent player and he is very intense and always wants to win. Let’s not just throw him under the bus. I think he can turn it around and improve. And lets hope I’m wrong, but i think Steve has lost a step(or more) which may contribute to Jake’s over throws. On a closing note I’m still hoping for a chance at Play-offs with the other teams in NFL having bad season there is still hope.
But very few of your examples were well thrown balls
Many of those balls that hit receivers hands were thrown into coverage and often behind the receiver. Just because you can get your hands on it doesn’t mean the ball is in a place where you can pull it in.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 7:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think what ClintonC and I were saying is that...
…a lot of times, ill-thrown passes fall incomplete, life goes on, and nobody pays much attention, But every time one of those gets tipped to EXACTLY where the out of position defender just happens to be lucky enough to be standing — that’s a tough break INT for the QB.
Kinda like last week, when we force 5 fumbles, but only 1 of them bounces in such a way to be recovered by a Panther. Sometimes luck comes into play.
But is it really just bad luck?
Aren’t QBs taught to drop back further to help prevent tipped passes? I assume that with Jake struggling to hit deeper routes, he is throwing more quick passes that are more in reach of defensive linemen. Maybe I’m on my own but I really don’t think the tipped passes have nothing to do with Jake’s “suckage”.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I am going to say it and then feel bad about myself all day,
I can’t believe Jake’s a better QB than Deadpool.
We should start a Jake deadpool!!! Against the Jets, 4:30 left in the 3rd quarter. I would have said the Saints game, but Coach Fox would not be rude enough to bench Jake on a homecoming game.
I miss Jake being the QB we could all get behind, but we need to look to the future of the franchise. I only hope we can keep him with the organization in some way. Maybe a personnel guy, someone to look after the rookies. And we should definitely retire # 17.
Thanks Jake, we owe you allot, but we need to win.
If God came down on Christmas Day
I know exactly what He'd say
He'd say "Oi!" to the punks
and "Oi!" to the skins
but "Oi!" to the world and everybody wins.
-The Vandals
It will be tough to sell retiring a jersey
Of a guy who only made one ProBowl, and who came up short of a Superbowl win. I wouldn’t mind keeping him around as a backup, if he’d restructure his contract
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 8:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If the O-Line gets better
And if the running game is fixed
And if the receivers learn to get open and either Moose regains his speed or Moore passes him on the depth chart
THEN Jake will start playing well.
He can’t carry the team, he can only magnify it’s strengths and weaknesses.
I think, this week, we will see…
O-Line: Check
Run Game: Check
Open Receivers: Half a check?
Jake playing well: X
By the way, I’m not supporting the “Jake sux, he’ll never get better” notion with that X but I simply don’t believe this upcoming game will be the one he leaves us floored (by a good performance, that is). Funnily, I can’t make myself believe that the similar things will be said next week.
Perhaps we just need consistency instead of different parts of our team showing up randomly.
Look at Jake's game log statistics each season since he's been a starter in Carolina,
Each season he has (more or less):
- 4 performances with a QB rating less than 77
- 8 performances with a QB rating between 78 and 95
- 4 performances with a QB rating greater than 96
I hold out hope that he’s getting is bad performances out of the way now.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
How many times in his career as our starter
Has he been benched for sucking so bad? And how many times has Fox ran 15 of 16 straight running plays because he couldn’t trust Jake with ball?
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 8:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
My point being
This year he IS worse than ever before
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 8:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I know he's worse than he's ever been, Ryan's article articulates that perfectly.
I’m just choosing to look at this season as any other season, rather than taking it in isolation.
I’m choosing to believe he’s a good quarterback having an abysmal start, rather than a good quarterback who’s lost it and done.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Oct 25, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Me, too
It still could work out that way. Season’s not a third over yet (not til 1/2time today, anyway.)
I hope it works out too
But even if it does, it just seems like Jake is becoming too much of a liability to stick with him after this year.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
While I have been a long time supporter of Jake, not because he is the best QB playing but be because he has a great passion for the game as well as an unbelievable amount of Heart. The interceptions are distressing but they have not all been his fault, when the receiver runs the wrong route on a timing pattern, the ball will end up in the wrong hands.Then what starts to happen is the QB hesitates for a split second not knowing if the receiver is going to the right place and then the deal is really done. At least 3 of his interceptions have been because of the receiver not his passes. This not to say he is having a good year so far because he is not. The other problem has to fall on John Foxe’s shoulders, his play calling is so predictable the opposing teams already know whats coming. Will this be Jakes last year as a starter, probably so, but I am not giving up on them as a team, I still think they have a shot at the playoffs.
Defending Delhomme
If you’re trying to defend him, You don’t have a leg to stand on. southtunnel had it right. If you have to run the ball 15 straight times because you don’t trust your QB to throw the ball without turning it over. There’s a big problem!!! And there needs to be a change!! There is no way that Moore or Feeley could be worse. Thank GOD we had a running game that day or we would have lost. And as for the theory of tipped balls. That tipped int was clearly behind Moose. If he was more accurate and hit moose in the chest instead of way behind him. No int!! He can’t even hit Smith up the sidelines anymore. A play that was our dagger in the past. WE have no deep threat because Delhomme can’t throw it deep accurately. That’s a play that any starting qb in the NFL should be able to throw!! If not then he shouldn’t be starting!! Period!! Give Moore or Feeley the ball. I don’t care who!! Anybody but the int king. Stick a fork in Jake!!!
Fox is done
Fox is done too. For sticking with Delhomme. It’s the Oc’s fault for the lame ass offensive play calling. The most bland offense I’ve ever seen. Same crap over and over. At least Henning could still get the ball to Smith. Big mistake letting him go. Fox fired him just to save his own ass. Henning should be our OC and I’ m afraid Fox will be gone with delhomme. Cower will come in and clean up. Peppers will sign a contract or he’ll be gone too.
Thanks for joining us, maninthebox
Lets’ see….
Jake….check
Fox….check
OC….check
Peppers….check
Cowher…..check
Moore/Feeley …..check
looks like you’ve hit ’em all! Jackpot!
…oh, wait………you forgot Gamble.
I’m beginning to think we need a screening process around here.
by SlayerGhaleon on Oct 25, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions
If it were all homers and blind loyalist on this blog…what fun would that be? I think right now there is a pretty good balance which leads to some pretty good discussions. Occasionally there is an irate or irrational individual, but that is the nature of the blogging world. As a fan and critic of the team….it is nice to post and express frustration or excitement about what happens on Sunday.
The Jake homers are getting a bit unrealistic in my opinion
I can still painfully support Peppers, because at least he eventually has big games. And I’d like to see more balls thrown at Jarrett, even though I have doubts… Even our secondary I have hope in, providing we can maintain a pass rush. But Jake, is just becoming too much to bare.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
Wake up Jake!
I think Jakes intimidated by Smith and feels pressured to force feed passes. Jake’s time is done as a starter. I say bench his ass and let him think about the mistakes he’s made. Look what happened to McRibb in Philly when he got benched last season vs the Bengals. He bounced back. Fox needs to give Buffalo a new look and steer their defence to confusion…..set Delhomme as a wideout and Smith as the QB…..hahahahahaha…..
Delhomme
Delhomme followed by his suck ass daddy John Fox are probably the two worst things that have happened to the Panther’s this season, Oh let me throw in the offensive co-ordinator into the mix. Interceptions, fumbles and bad play calling will get it don everytime. 2-4 that is. Carolina was clearly the better team on the field yesterday and what do they do? fuck around and do what they have done all season lose. I picked the Panther’s to go 4-12 this season now I am changing it to 3-13 since they lost to the hapless Bill’s. I mean they want even give the other QB’s a try every week we suffer with Delhomme. I mean less face it if your gonna lose it may as well be with the whole team participating not just suck ass Delhomme and his daddy John Foxx.
robert
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