Is DeAngelo Williams the best running back in the NFL?
by James Dator on Oct 2, 2009 4:44 PM EDT
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Monday, August 18th 2009: Did Jon Gruden just say that? Surely he didn't?
Against the New York Giants in the first preseason game of the season Jon Gruden said stone faced "DeAngelo Williams is the best running back in the National Football League". Ron Jaworksi and Mike Tirico laughed at their new co-host, mocking him while saying "I think you've forgotten about someone named Adrian Peterson"
But, what if Gruden is right? Could we definitively name DeAngelo Williams the best running back in the NFL?
This is the collective consciousness of NFL fans: Of course, Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL, there's not even a competition. After all, he had just come off a sophomore season where he ran for over 1700 yards; there was no sophomore slump for ‘All Day' Peterson.
Conversely, DeAngelo Williams came off his best season as a pro in his third year, and first as a feature back, running for 1500 yards, 18 TDs at an average 5.5 yards per carry. Despite this, Williams failed to make the probowl.
At water coolers around the country, in sports bars, on radio and TV it is a foregone conclusion that Adrian Peterson is the best RB in the NFL. He shows it from week to week, without any sign of stopping. As I sit here in the Carolina Panther's bye week I'm encouraged to think about DeAngelo Williams while we all talk about the need to get him more involved and I'm starting to realize something; I think I agree with Chucky... we do have the best running back in the NFL.
For the sake of this article I am going to be looking at the top 10 Running Backs (by yardage) from the 2008 season, and looking at what they're doing this season. These backs are:
Adrian Peterson
Michael Turner
DeAngelo Williams
Clinton Portis
Thomas Jones
Steve Slaton
Matt Forte
Chris Johnson
Ryan Grant
LaDainian Tomlinson
The reason I am using the 2008 backs rather than top performers from 2009 is simple, a larger sampling to show that these are successful backs in the NFL, they are proven commodities. For the analysis I am doing it seemed silly to include Cedric Benson and omit Tomlinson, for example.
Instead of looking at the typical yards, touchdowns and YPC that is typically used to analyze RB performance I'm going to look into their runs, past the play calling and see how they do their damage each and every time they touch the ball. Yards are all well and good, but with a 2 ypc you're not really moving the chains. 20 touchdowns are great, but if you can only get those three yards near the end zone, you're not an every down back.
I am going to be breaking down each and every one of their runs into three or less yards, 4-9 yards and 10+ yards... from this I'll get a percentage of their running tendencies and give the player a determination based on their findings. Players will either be a ‘short yardage threat', ‘chain mover', ‘Jack of all trades' or ‘home run threat'. It seems strange now, but I think you'll get the idea quickly.
For the benchmark of this study I am going to start with our own DeAngelo Williams.
DeAngelo Williams (total carries 41)
0-3: 24 (58%)
4-9: 9 (22%)
10+: 8 (20 %)
These numbers show that Williams has success in all three yardage areas. He is a complete back.
Designation: Jack of all trades
Adrian Peterson (total carries 59)
0-3: 35 (60%)
4-9: 15 (25%)
10+: 9 (15%)
More of a short to mid yardage back than DeAngelo, but less of a ‘home run hitter'.
Designation: Jack of all trades
Michael Turner (total carried 65)
0-3: 37 (57 %)
4-9: 25 (38%)
10+:3 (5%)
Turner has the highest number of short to mid range runs, with virtually nothing over ten yards.
Designation: Chain Mover
Clinton Portis (total carries 47)
0-3: 28 (61%)
4-9: 13 (27 %)
10+: 6 (12%)
Portis has a greater percentage of short-mid yardage gains.
Designation: Short yardage threat/chain mover
Thomas Jones (total carries 48)
0-3: 34 (72%)
4-9: 11 (24%)
10+: 2 (4%)
Clearly, Jones gets his work done in short yardage clumps.
Designation: Short yardage threat
Steve Slaton (total carries 38)
0-3: 27 (71%)
4-9: 6 (16%)
10+: 5 (13%)
Like Thomas Jones, Slaton is a short yardage specialist
Designation: Short yardage threat
Matt Forte (total carries 59)
0-3: 44 (75%)
4-9: 13 (22%)
10+: 2 (3%)
No visible homerun threat
Designation: Short yardage threat
Chris Johnson (total carries 53)
0-3: 31 (58%)
4-9: 8 (16%)
10+: 14 (26%)
A tougher designation, but due to the ‘all or nothing' element to his game:
Designation: Home run threat
Ryan Grant (total carries 56)
0-3: 34 (61%)
4-9: 20 (36%)
10+: 2 (3%)
No real homerun threat, but effective at shorter distances.
Designation: Short yardage threat/chain mover
LaDainian Tomlinson (total carries 13)
0-3: 8 (62%)
4-9: 3 (23%)
10+: 2 (15%)
Like Williams and Peterson, Tomlinson can do it all, even though injury may have limited him this season.
Designation: Jack of all trades
Analysis: Really, there are two backs who share remarkably the same characteristics; DeAngelo Williams and Adrian Peterson. In this study their percentages are almost equal across the board. While Peterson is better at moving the chains mid yardage, Williams is more of a home run threat. However, both backs can do it all.
So, who is the better? Statistics alone would indicate Peterson; after all, he has the yardage, the touchdowns, the ypc this year... however, in the opinion of this writer, if I were a GM starting a team, DeAngelo Williams would be my chosen back. Peterson fumbles the ball far more often than Williams over his career and DeAngelo is a greater threat in the passing game.
As a Panther fan I feel better about Williams in 2009 after looking at these stats. Despite his lack of carries he is matching up almost identical with Adrian Peterson, and neither have a true rival in the league who matches their skill set. We should be proud of our featured back.
Of course, this is an article based entirely on opinion, not pure fact. I have chosen to present the statistics in this manor, but it is fair to all backs analyzed. As always, I would love to hear what you think. Do you think I misrepresented a back? Is my system flawed? I would love to hear your opinion.
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Best running back
My opinion is Williams number 1, and I hope our coaches give him the chance to retain that spot but they can’t seem to refrain from throwing the ball.
I'll restate my argument.
DeAngelo Williams YPR last year was 5.5. Peterson’s last year was 4.8.
And of course, Williams received 90 less carries. While Adrian Peterson is showing himself to be the better back this year, it’s because he has more of a chance to show his skill.
I’ve said this once, I’ll say it a thousand times.
Just give him the damn ball!
"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
GREAT analysis!
Of course, this is an article based entirely on opinion, not pure fact.
I disagree. It is an educated opinion based on a study of raw data.
Missing Players
By only including the top 10 rushers based on total yards, you have left out several important names. Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs each had 1000+ yards last season while splitting carries with each other and Bradshaw. Ward in particular is a big time RB because of his added threat as a receiver (which you mention as important in your conclusion). Steven Jackson is another RB worth noting. Behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, he still managed over 1000 yards with 4.1 ypc. And again, he is a big threat as a receiver.
There are several others that I think should have been included in the analysis (e.g., Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Marion Barber), and a few who don’t have enough stats to analyze that are worth considering.
The bottom line, though, is that what makes RBs great, or at least what we measure them by, has maybe as much to do with the rest of the offense as the individual. Would DeAngelo be putting up the kind of numbers he does on a team with an elite QB, or with a terrible O-Line? Probably not. No doubt Williams is one of the greatest RBs in the league right now, but trying to crown one guy as the “best” is as hopeless as trying to crown one QB as the greatest. They each prosper in certain systems and situations. Change those, and the individual is not going to look nearly as good.
I understand what you are saying about omitted backs....
However, all I did was take the top 10 RBs by rush yardage from 2008 to analyze them.
I agree that the team as a whole is of vital importance. Of course the offensive line, the threat of an elite QB, the playstyle all attribute to a quarterback’s numbers. However, what this analysis attempted to do was get to the very basis of what a running back can do, i.e. What do they do when the ball is in their hands?
The players you mentioned, Jackson, Ward, Westbrook, Barber and more, all amazing backs. I would have loved to include them all, but for the consistency I just took the top 10, I had to cut off somewhere.
This article was not so much about definitively ‘crowning’ a best RB, it was more about analyzing rushing tendencies to get an idea of who the best could be. While I may agree with you that attempting these endeavors is often fruitless, ultimately the general populace will always compare players and generate opinions of who is the ‘greatest’ at each position.
Thanks for the feedback.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
yes he would
you ask if d-will would put up the great numbers in other situations, and the answer is yes. with an elite qb, his stats would be better, he would have more receptions and there would be fewer defenders in the box when he runs if we had a passing threat. i think if we had peyton manning, d-will would average more yards per carry and have more receptions. as for playing with a worse offensive line, well he averaged 5 ypc the same year foster averaged 3.5. the line was the same, and d-will was getting it done. and, of course, there is no variable that this analysis could add that would make him fumble more often. d-will is the best rb in the league. the top five, if LT is in top form, are D-Will, LT, AP, Portis, and Steven Jackson. Each of those guys gets the tough yards, move the chains, get in the end zone, block well, and can catch passes. D-Will is the best, though. AP doesn’t get as many YPC, even with McKinnie and Hutchinson on the left side, and he had Tony Richardson as his lead blocker the first couple years…the guy who blocked for Larry Johnson his first two trips to the pro bowl. And he fumbles. Portis doesn’t have the breakaway speed he used to. Jackson is a couple years removed from his 1500 yard, 90 catch season. Jacobs is not a home run threat, but he is a monster. Ward got almost 25% of his yards last year in one game (against us). Gore is overrated, but I’m open to being proven wrong. I can admit it if he does it. Benson may prove to be a good RB after all. Chris Johnson is a beast, too. At 195 pounds, he has no problem hitting people, but it’s that 4.2 speed that embarrasses people.
Umm...no
Adrian Peterson by far is the best running back..
Don’t get me wrong, Deangelo is good..but he ain’t no Adrian..Until someone can out do Adrian, he will always be number 1
By what do you measure Peterson as the best running back?
I’m interested for future comparisons… as I feel the Williams/Peterson argument will go on for a long time.
If everything was equal and in 2008 DeAngelo Williams was given the same number of carries as Adrian Peterson he would have ran for 1996.5 yards, whereas Peterson had 1760. Alternatively, if Peterson had Williams’ number of carries he would have net 1310, while Williams got 1515. This is due to the variation in their ypc.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
don't forget
If D-Will had all five starting OL play all 16 games, he would’ve played better. If he had McKinnie and Hutch, things might have been better, too, but Gross was All-Pro. If D-Will had AP’s carries, he might have finished with 25 TDs.
Very good break down.. I like the system you used. Anytime this debate arises, I quickly revert back to the basics of the game; that being who brought the points home? I’m not so much concerned with who got the ball the most, or who even broke the most long runs, as nice as they are to look at, but who, when it came down to it, was able to go in there and achieve the ultimate goal of every drive – a touchdown.
Looking at that alone, we see Adrian Peterson took the ball 363 times and came up with 10 touchdowns. He also contributed through the air with 21 receptions but turned none into points.
On the other hand, DeAngelo Williams quietly amassed 18 touchdowns on 273 carries. He added to that with 22 receptions and 2 touchdowns through the air.
Considering the fact that Chester Taylor could have “stolen” 4 touchdowns from AP as the back-up RB, I’ll accredit AP as either scoring or attributing to 14 rushing touchdowns.
Going back to Williams, whom was backed up by, in my opinion, a much more talented back-up in Jonathan Stewart, we could say that DeAngelo Williams either scored or attributed to 28 rushing touchdowns this season.
Now, it’s obvious that a RB could drive the whole field only to give way to the QB in the red zone, so lets also consider that.
The Vikings ended the season with 22 passing touchdowns. Meanwhile the Panthers ended with 15 passing touchdowns.
Adding all of that together, we can say that Adrian Peterson scored 10 touchdowns while attributing to (roughly) 31 touchdown ending drives. Flipping the coin once again, DeAngelo Williams ended the season with 20 touchdowns and attributed to (roughly) 27 touchdown ending drives.
That leaves us with 41 Minnesota touchdowns and 47 Carolina touchdowns.
If you were able to follow me on that, you probably see the same thing I do. DeAngelo Williams not only out-scored Adrian Peterson but also left his teammates in better position to score and win games.
These are two completely different theories on determining which back is “better” but I believe DeAngelo quite decidedly takes the number 1 slot regardless whichever one you choose to go by.
By the way, thank you for pointing out the difference in carries and how it relates to the total yardage. I’m so tired of hearing people spout yardage per season as the sole reason they consider AP the “best”. If that were the case, DeAngelo takes the per carry avarage by .7 yards. Meanwhile, our rookie Stewart was only .3 behind Peterson.
Granted there is a lot of room for inaccuracy here, I think this is as close as I’m going to get being 33 hours displaced from sleep and slightly under the influences. My conclusion: DeAngelo Williams moves the ball more effectively, puts his team in better positions, and puts more points on the board, which is what matters the most to me. So my pick, obviously, goes to Mr. Williams.
fumbles
add the fumble argument, and it’s hard to argue.
You're absolutely right on that.
Funny how INT’s are so strongly counted against a QB’s “effectiveness” — but fumbles (their rushing equivalent) are relatively ignored when arguing who’s a better RB. And a fumble is almost always on the RB himself, whereas the QB gets stuck with the INT stat even when his receiver cuts off his route, or tips the ball.
Turning the ball over to the opposition is the biggest no-no in the game, yet it’s just a footnote when praising AP. Williams’ LACK of fumbles only underlines his NET effectiveness. I notice Gruden mentioned that again last week.
Football Outsiders analysis agrees with you
However, in DYAR (their ranking of “more total value”), they rank Peterson #17 to Williams #1
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb2008
…and Peterson is #22 in Value Per Play.
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