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Panthers Receiving Tandem - Less than Good So Far

The Panthers and observers have blamed a lot of factors for the team's stagnant offense this season: The line is not playing well, Jake Delhomme is declining, Jonathan Stewart was injured. But another reason for the unit's struggles has been the lack of productivity from Carolina's starting wide receivers, Mushin Muhammad and Steve Smith.

In fact, when you look at how much the Panthers' passing game has depended on Smith and Muhammad, and how much they have produced, they rate as one of the least efficient wide receiver tandems in the NFL.

CSR examined the top two wide receivers on each NFL team -- studying how often they were targeted for passes, how many balls they caught, and for how many yards and scores. Adjustments were made to averages in some cases to account for the Panthers' bye week because not every NFL team had had its bye yet. Here is how Smith and Muhammad stack up:

Smith and Muhammad have been the targets of a combined 77 passes from Panthers quarterbacks, and have caught only 39 of those passes. That's roughly one-half. Neither has scored a touchdown in four games and they have accounted for a combined 433 yards, or 108.3 yards per game, even though they have been the targets for a staggering 57.9 percent of all Carolina passes. Here are their individual numbers:

Star-divide

  • Smith has caught 20 of the 42 passes thrown his way, for 255 yards. He has been the target for 31.6 percent of Carolina passes.
  • Muhammad has caught 19 of 35 passes for 178 yards. He has been the target 26.3 percent of the time.

You don't need to be Jeff Davidson to know that's not efficient. Compare their production to other top NFL receiving tandems, and the numbers look worse. Only one other duo has been the target for as many of its team's passes (57.9 percent) when they are healthy: Randy Moss and Wes Welker of the Patriots. But Welker and Moss have been far more productive.

  • Moss has caught 30 of 48 passes for 367 yards and a score -- albeit in five games, to four for the Panthers' tandem. Welker, however, is 26-of-41 for 227 yards and a score in only three games.

Between them they have played a combined eight games -- the same as Smith and Muhammad -- and accounted for many more yards (594-433) on only 12 more passes (89-77). They have also caught 63 percent of passes thrown their way, to 51 percent for Smith-Muhammad.

Some other figures to chew on:

  • Despite their limited production, Smith and Muhammad are both in the top 10 of all NFL receivers in percentage of their team's passes thrown to them. No other team has a pair of receivers in the top 10. This suggests that the Panthers are relying too much on Smith and Muhammad at the wide receiver position.
  • The other Steve Smith, of the Giants, by himself has accounted for more receiving yards (481-433) and touchdowns (4-0) than Smith-Muhammad despite being targeted far less often (49-77).
  • Smith 20-42 receptions-targeted ratio is the second-lowest among the 25 NFL receivers who are their teams' most popular targets. The only one who's worse: The Raiders' Louis Murphy (12-33). And he plays with Jamarcus "I miss the whole table when I play beerpong" Russell.

Despite playing opposite a veteran receiver, Smith has been far less productive than the NFL receiver he is most often compared to: Washington's Santana Moss. Moss is similar in stature, speed and experience to Smith. He plays in an offense worse than Carolina's, lining up opposite the unestablished Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly. Yet Moss is 21-of-35 for 337 yards and two scores.

All six tandems, like Welker-Moss, have been more efficient and productive than Smith-Muhammad.

  • Smith and Muhammad are well off their pace of last season. In the 2008 regular season combined they were targeted for an even higher percentage of Panther passes (62.3) than thus far in 2009. But they corralled 60.3 percent of the 237 passes thrown their way, accounted for an average of 146.3 yards per game and caught 11 touchdown passes.

This report is not meant as a referendum against Smith and Muhammad. A passing game depends of course on the quarterback, linemen and offensive coordinator, as well. They are all responsible for the lack of production from the wide receiver position; the numbers don't tell us how many times Smith got open but Delhomme was sacked or misread the play, for example. I'm not a coach or a scout; I have no idea how much of a factor Smith and Muhammad alone have been in their lack of production.

But here's what the numbers do tell us: The Panthers vertical passing game has been anemic through four games. Until something changes -- Delhomme's play, the development of Kenny Moore or Dwayne Jarrett, more playing time for Dante Rosario, whatever -- defenses will likely continue to stack the box and attack the running game. They will dare the Panthers' passing game to move the ball and score, because so far it has not done much of either efficiently.

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Aren't King and Rosario a great remedy for this?

They both seem to constantly make receiving plays even though they are usually blocking or 3rd/4th options. They both get open and can catch in traffic. With everybody and their mother stacking the box and cheating a safety to Smitty, why not just go ahead and plan to throw to these guys on say 50% or more of the passing plays?

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Oct 16, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Ryan- for compiling some statistics on one of the obvious problems for the Panthers.

“…defenses will likely continue to stack the box and attack the running game. They will dare the Panthers’ passing game to move the ball and score, because so far it has not done much of either efficiently.”

How can this be fixed?

Better usage of the TE- tough to do when you want to run most of the time
Improved running – tough to do when the box is stacked
Better receivers- Not many better than Smith except he is double teamed
Better play calling- More play action??
Better QB who is more accurate and throws with velocity-??
Better o-line- Give Jake time and receivers a chance to get open- O-line is built better for the run

by Davejinxer on Oct 16, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice article. It really sheds the light on how bad our passing game is.

The bottom line with me is that the problems we face in our passing game is the play of Jake Delhomme. When you say that a WR is a target of a pass, that statistic is garnered no matter how far off the ball is on its intended target. When Moose is overthrown on a deep route, that’s a target. When a ball is thrown behind Steve Smith, that’s a target.

For Kenny Moore to truly progress, the Panthers need to start running 3 WR sets more in order to make use of them. So far the Panthers seem content on just keeping two TE on the line of scrimmage, so I don’t expect to see an explosion from Kenny Moore or Jarrett anytime this year. The real cure like SouthTunnel said is that both of our TE’s need to get active in catching balls. Rosario is a star in the making, and King provides a nice rounded game. With everyone and their mother blitzing and leaving the middle of the field open, why not throw it over the blitz to our TE’s and see what they can do?

When I look at a passing game, I blame the QB first before I put blame on the wideout. The most recent example of this can be Braylon Edwards trade to the Jets. All of the sudden he flashes his ability to make circus catches when Sanchez threw him the ball at a 3rd and 22 for a 34 yard pass for a touchdown. The sole difference is that they moved away from horrible QB’s like Anderson and Quinn, and they got on a team with a rising rookie QB in Mark Sanchez.

"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn

by Revshawn on Oct 16, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh Oh Rev...

“The sole difference is that they moved away from horrible QB’s like Anderson and Quinn” …translates to Jake is a horrible QB.

Be prepared to defend yourself because…Jake is da best frikin QB to help de panters win?!?!?!?!

by Davejinxer on Oct 16, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When I look at a passing game, I blame the QB first before I put blame on the wideout. The most recent example of this can be Braylon Edwards trade to the Jets. All of the sudden he flashes his ability to make circus catches when Sanchez threw him the ball at a 3rd and 22 for a 34 yard pass for a touchdown. The sole difference is that they moved away from horrible QB’s like Anderson and Quinn, and they got on a team with a rising rookie QB in Mark Sanchez.

Bad example. He flashed that ability in Cleveland too, but always went back to his stone hands after a game or two. Unless he does it consistently, it means nothing.

by SlayerGhaleon on Oct 16, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know, most of this is coming from my gut.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if Braylon Edwards pulls a Randy Moss on us. I really and truly won’t. The coaches are singing his praises over there in New York, and he’s getting loads of targets.

And sure, Jake is the ‘da best friken QB to help de panters win’, on the flip side of the coin, he’s played like Jamarcus Russell for the first three games of the season. Can he turn it around? Probably. But if you gave a QB like Peyton Manning the same balls in the same situation as Jake Delhomme I guarantee you that he would be able to make those throws.

Let’s not forget, last game against the Redskins was the first time that our coaches called the game in such a way that will make use of the strength of our team. Let’s also not forget that our team is built in such a way where the running game can take over, and we don’t necessarily need a great playmaker like a Manning or a Brady to exist for us to win a championship.

"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn

by Revshawn on Oct 16, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only problem with your premise. :)

Outside of the Philly game, Jake has played well. He’s completed a high percentage of his passes and spread the ball around (at least as much as you can when you only have three receiving options on any given play). I wouldn’t fault him much, we all know what we have and so do the coaches.

You don’t send kickers out to kick past their range, why would you call a zillion passing plays for a game manager? I think Quarterback is pretty far down the list of things that need to be addressed right now. It’s on the list, just not at the top.

by Cyberjag on Oct 17, 2009 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is tough to show sarcasm through writing, but that was my half hearted attempt.

by Davejinxer on Oct 17, 2009 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dwayne Jarrett, Kenny Moore, Dante Rosario... it doesn't matter.

No team in the NFL is scared of any reciever we have coming out of the slot, and that’s a major concern. Until we develop a player into a viable threat then our opponents know they only need to worry about Smitty and Moose.

This weekend should be very interesting working against Talib and Barber. I think we have the edge and should torch the Bucs.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James The Aussie on Oct 16, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd argue you have it backwards

The point I take from the original post is that the Panther’s offense is built upon two things: Running the ball and throwing the ball to the top two wide receivers.

So, yes it truly doesn’t matter who the third WR or TE(s) are. They are not a viable threat because in the Panthers’ offense as designed by Jeff Davidson and implemented by Jake Delhomme they really aren’t intended to be threats. Simple as that.

by TheMightyM on Oct 17, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's a difference between having a threat, and using one.

When we had Ricky Proehl teams has to account for him. Was he used often? No, but when teams napped on Ricky was when we’d get a 20 yard gain from him.

Proehl gave the Panthers a 400-500 yard reciever out of the slot. Since Proehl retired we haven’t had a reliable option out of the slot.

Yes, the Panther offense is based on running the ball and utilizing the top 2 WRs, however, when you have a 36 year old WR at #2 then you need to have a third option at WR.

As it stands we’re running 3 wide sets but teams know they only need to worry about 2 WRs…. that’s a problem.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James The Aussie on Oct 17, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Proehl usage

Ricky Proehl was absolutely heavily used as compared to how often we target Jarrett or Moore. Proehl averaged 442.3 yards a season with the Panthers… on 26.7 receptions on average a year. Through four games, we haven’t thrown five passes to either Moore or Jarrett yet. (Gantt’s column says it’s only twice to Jarrett so far (he has two receptions), and it’s either three or four to Moore, as he has three receptions.)

And that really is the core of it. The Panthers’ offense, as designed and implemented in 2008 and 2009, just isn’t going to allow a third WR to rack up significant yardage. They are very secondary elements of the game plan.

by TheMightyM on Oct 18, 2009 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Correction

Proehl had 86 catches over three years, or 28.7 per season. Gotta stop trying to do math early in the morning…

by TheMightyM on Oct 18, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I absolutely agree that our receivers haven’t been productive. However, I can’t help but feel they’re doing the best they can with what we’ve had.

Unfortunately, being I currently reside in Florida, I am unable to watch every Carolina game, although I do try, so I haven’t seen a lot of the passes intended for either receiver.

Admittedly, our QB has been anything but “hot”, who knows how many times Smith dropped a good ball vs an uncatchable, or just bad, ball.

Also, although the Redskins offense is worse, Campbell has actually played better than Delhomme (or, I should say, their passing attack has been more fruitful than ours)

Over 5 games, Campbell has 66.7% @ 98/147 – 1,108yds – 6TD’s/5Int’s – & has been sacked 13 times.
Over 4 games, Delhomme has 60.3% @ 70/116 – 782yds – 3TD’s/8Int’s – & has been sacked 10 times.

Neither QB is having a great season but Delhomme has been (for what it’s worth) statistically worse with, in my opinion, better receiving options.

In the end, there are so many people that could shoulder the blame in all positions. I guess it’s safe to say we are just under performing in all aspects. Lets hope that we can turn this around.

by D-Ranged1 on Oct 16, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Need another threat besides Smith

Two points here. First, the Panthers were successful last year because of a stellar running game. Forcing 7-8 in the box is what makes Smith a playmaker. When we are down 17, 17 is throwing and Smith is guaranteed to have a corner and safety on him. Our chances of success go down in those scenarios.

What we haven’t gotten through the draft is a consistent receiving threat that can either take some heat off Smith, or take advantage of the heat Smith is drawing. That guy needs to consistently get off of (or inside) defenders (which Moose does not, he is good at sitting in zones or soft coverage).

That said, Jake is a part of the problem, but definitely not all of it. We saw with Atlanta and Washington that Jake can be very effective when we commit to the run (even if we aren’t doing so all that great). The Redskins knew going less than 7 in the box would get them hurt (esp with Haynesworth out), so they stayed with it. That’s why Jake got the looks he did and make some pretty good throws.

To summarize, we still need a #2 (and #3) receiver we can rely on (we may have him, he just hasn’t shown up), and the running game is critical to our passing system. Jake had 1 pro bowl season with no running backs, and we almost got to the SB with him. Those days are gone, imo.

by Doclotus on Oct 16, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Even if we have a better 2nd and 3rd option...

will Jake actually try to throw it to them? or will he continue to keep forcing the ball to smitty??

by jay23 on Oct 16, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A better question might be will Fox throw to them?

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Oct 16, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think a lot of it is Moose

He’s just not gotten the separation he did last year. He’s also missed on a couple passes that he would have brought in easily last year. I don’t expect him to catch everything thrown his way, but when he can get two hands on the ball he needs to bring it in.

Opponents are doubling Smith and stacking the box, meaning that Moose is generally isolated in coverage. He’s gotten a lot of looks, but he needs to get back to the 65% catch range. If he was there already he would be at 23 catches instead of 19, and would likely have moved the chains a few more times. Who knows what kind of difference that could make?

I’m in 100% agreement with Gantt on this one: http://www.heraldonline.com/206/story/1672190.html

by Cyberjag on Oct 16, 2009 5:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Moose is getting to the point in his career

Where he shouldn’t be a primary target. I think he still has a few years in him… but for run blocking purposes, mentoring, and as a reliable (Ricky Proehl like) 3rd option at times.

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Oct 16, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, maybe more 3-wide sets are the answer

Put Moose in the slot, Jarret/Moore outside. They can’t really play eight in the box vs a 3-wide set, something has to give. Then we can run out of those, our O-line SHOULD be able to push back the four in front, Moose and King seal off one side, D-Will on a stretch play. Then once you show a willingness to run out of that formation, play-action pass.

by Flowing Willow on Oct 17, 2009 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

We see so many other teams do this sort of stuff. So why is it so difficult to get Fox out of his bubble?

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Oct 17, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeppers

According to Reed, “Part of the problem is the way teams are defending the Panthers.
   They’re putting bracket coverage (two defensive backs) on Steve Smith and walking an eighth defender into the box. That’s leaving Carolina’s other receiver Muhsin Muhammad with mostly one-on-one coverage but the problem is the Panthers haven’t taken advantage.
   At 36, Muhammad no longer has the speed to challenge opponents deep but the team has been reluctant to replace him with either Kenny Moore or Dwayne Jarrett because of Muhammad’s blocking ability.”

Carolina Growl

by Davejinxer on Oct 18, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jarrett

I don’t know, maybe I’m missing something. Are Jarrett and Moore dropping a lot of balls thrown thier way? Are they just not able to get open? Or is it that Jake continues to lock onto Smith with Moose as his only checkdown? I kind of think that it’s the latter.

by Run4est on Oct 16, 2009 10:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Without going back and looking at the games

I remember more balls being under-thrown, thrown behind the receiver or thrown into coverage. I also think too often Jake and Fox would rather take a shot down field than check down… They won a lot of games doing this last year.

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Oct 17, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So this has NO reflection on who is throwing the rock to Smitty and Moose?

You do understand this guy I’m hitting has probably the worst football a player at his position can have and has accounted for how many turnovers so far this season? Oh yes, now we’re on the same page…..

by RaffyGonzo on Oct 17, 2009 12:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

DeAngelo

has arguably been the most disappointing Panther this season- for me, anyway.

I keep seeing articles on here, “Is he the best RB in the NFL?” and similar comments. The guy has been pretty terrible thus far.

I’m not putting all the blame on him (the OL, OC, Jake, etc all deserve a little credit), but elite runners just don’t get contained like this.

by the bomb dot com on Oct 17, 2009 3:20 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Some really good potential solutions posted here...

in my mind fix the QB position and the entire team will improve and play with greater confidence.

by Davejinxer on Oct 17, 2009 8:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Fix the offensive line, run the ball better...

then watch the quarterback play fix itself. :)

by Cyberjag on Oct 17, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They do compliment each other...

and we can see that the offensive line has dropped as far as protection, but this has a lot to do with opposing defenses blitzing and stacking the box as referenced by Ryan. If the Panthers could get a serious passing threat going, the running definitely would improve. However, that is a big ’if’ from the way things have looked so far this year. I do not have faith in Jake being accurate on a consistent basis, but that is just my humble opinion.

by Davejinxer on Oct 17, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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