Panthers' Hump Day Prognostication

Happy hump day Panther faithful! We've had a few days now to come down from our first victory of the season and there's no better time than a Wednesday to remember the previous Sunday's contest with fond memories and prepare ourselves for another battle this Sunday.

This week we head to Raymond James Stadium to take on the 0-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa are a team clearly rebuilding in 2009 as 1^st year head coach Raheem Morris attempts to put his stamp on a franchise shaped over the years by the likes of Tony Dungy and John Gruden. Sunday will represent the third start for QB Josh Johnson, who while playing admirably, is realistically a placeholder and bridge to the future, 2009 first round pick QB Josh Freeman.

I know we're all feeling confident about this weekend's game, but any Panther fan should know that it is prudent to never nap on the Buccaneers. They have a tendency to always play bigger than they are against the Panthers (week 6, 2008). Fortunately for us, we do this same... as a 186 yard performance from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart's steamrolling performance in week fourteen of last season showed. So, lets break it down after the jump:

Tampa Bay Offense

Last week I said that the key to our victory against the Redskins would be stopping Chris Cooley. Well, Cooley was shut down and the ‘Skins offense couldn't move the ball... at all. This week against Tampa we see our fourth exceptional tight end in a row, Kellen Winslow. Winslow is far and away the most integral element to the Bucs passing offense. He has 100 yards more than the team's next best receiver and leads the team in TD receptions with four. To shut down the pass we will need Thomas Davis and Chris Harris to monitor and shut down Kellen Winslow as they were able to do with Chris Cooley; it's as simple as that. If we force Johnson to have to rely on Michael Clayton and Antonio Bryant to get yards then the Bucs are facing a major uphill battle.

Though the stats don't show it overall, Tampa Bay are running the football quite well and have a good stable of backs. Lead by the resurgent Cadillac Williams who is averaging 4.1 ypc and offseason acquisition Derrick Ward, also averaging 4.1 ypc they are able to move the ball effectively. However, I don't see Williams or Ward to be the true threat on the ground. That distinction belongs to Josh Johnson.

Carolina is historically bad dealing with running QBs, and Johnson seems to be emerging as a major threat. Though Johnson does look for the pass first he has been able to be the team's third leading rusher while averaging 7.4 yards per carry, rushing most recently for 8 ypc against a very potent Philadelphia Eagles defense.

I see the key to Carolina getting the defensive edge this Sunday to be this: Evaluating and monitoring both Kellen Winslow's ability on passing downs and Josh Johnson's ability on the ground.

Unfortunately, both of these roles normally fall to Thomas Davis. Davis is our spy to deal with rushing QBs and our primary pass defense against opposing TE's. We can't risk spying Johnson with Beason, so it will be incumbent upon Chris Harris to handle Winslow, allowing Davis to watch the QB.

This will leave Charles Godfrey out on an island for a lot of the game, and while Tampa's WR's are mediocre, we can't sleep on them. It will be up to Richard Marshall and Chris Gamble to lock down their WR's and allow Godfrey to excel in a cover 1 while Harris watches Winslow. If the Panther's secondary can hold while the d-line and LBs blitz then we win the battle, simple as that.

 Tampa Bay Defense

Defensively, Tampa Bay has several weapons and some effective players but as a unit they are not playing up to their potential. While they have some big names on defense (Barrett Ruud, Ronde Barber, Gaines Adams) it's a player you may not have heard of who represents their true defensive threat, 7^th year pro DE Jimmy Wilkerson.

Wilkerson is having a dominant season at RE for the Bucs, with 5 sacks, 2 FF and 20 tackles. He's exceeded his totals from 2008 in 5 games and is proving to be a difference maker. Jeff Otah will need to be sure that he's able to keep him in check and our offensive line in general will need to play far better than they did last week.

Outside of Wilkerson the Panthers will have to watch out for ball hawk Aqib Talib. The second year pro is coming into his own and proving he has shut down potential at corner. With three interceptions and six passes defended he's not afraid to play the ball in the air and is excellent at breaking up routes. The Panthers and Steve Smith should utilize a lot of double moves, quick slants, screens and hitches to try and throw off Talib's ability to jump the route. If plays are being calling for 15 yard posts, slants and digs then Talib will eat us alive, we have to throw him off by running quick plays.

Those are the major threats on the Buccaneers' defense. Barrett Ruud is an excellent linebacker who will make some plays on our RBs but he's not a major threat on the blitz and doesn't penetrate as much as some of the other LBs we've seen this season.

Final Prognosis

On paper this could be a very, very big game for the Panthers. Simply put, we have more skill at almost every position than Tampa Bay. However, you just never know which way the ball can bounce in these divisional games. I said after week one that I would be putting a personal moratorium on guessing scores until we get a win, well, we got our win so I am now lifting my self imposed ban.

It's going to be a good, smash mouth game at Raymond James and fireworks will fly just as they do every Panthers v. Bucs game. Ultimately though, they don't have enough defensive tools to counter our offensive weapons, and the Panthers match up well against their offensive strengths.

Carolina Panthers 28 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10