Sancho's Divisional Playoff Predictions: Panthers Will Rule!

by sancho8297 on Jan 9, 2009 12:35 PM EST Comment 9 comments

Hello CSRs,

It feels like a month has passed since Carolina held on to beat New Orleans and clinch the NFC South division title, not just 13 days ago on the final day of the regular season. We are glad that Carolina had something to play for in that game as recent history shows that resting your players in week 17, especially if you have a bye in the first round of the playoffs, can actually hurt your chances of earning a win in the Divisional Playoffs. As we all know Carolina's opponent, Arizona, has already traveled to visit once this year, and led 17-3 in the third quarter before Carolina staged a furious comeback to win 27-23. Let's get to it.

See his predictions after the jump...

Divisional Playoffs
ARI @ CAR
Our line: Carolina by 13

Back in week 8 we favored Carolina to defeat Arizona by 12 at home, and warned that the Cardinal pass attack would pose more problems than that of the Panthers previous opponents (Saints). Carolina certainly had troubles in that game, and things could have been even tighter had coach Whisenhunt opted to kick a 39 yard field goal in the first half rather than run a fake that failed. Despite the result from that game, we still think Carolina is close to a two touchdown favorite, as Arizona really is a one-dimension offensive team, leaning very heavily on their passing game to move the football. Don't be fooled by Arizona's win in the Wild Card round against Atlanta, Arizona still struggles mightily to run the football, and will continue to struggle against the Carolina defensive line. James, Hightower, Arrington, doesn't matter. The Carolina defense should have little problems with them, allowing the focus to be on getting to Warner or clamping down on the Cardinal receivers. As good as the Cardinal aerial attack is, there is a very small chance they can play a perfect game, especially with Boldin being far less than 100%.

Also do not be fooled by the Arizona defense holding Atlanta to a measly 60 yards rushing. Very surprisingly when Turner struggled for Atlanta, they did not counter with backup running back J. Norwood, something they did all season with great success. Norwood had only 2 carries in that game, the fewest attempts he has received all year. We expect D. Williams to obviously get the majority of the carries in this game, but we also expect the Arizona defense to get a healthy dose of J. Stewart. As usual, plan on the two Carolina RB's to have early success moving the football, which will help keep the pressure off of Delhomme and open up a reasonable amount of space for Smith and company to meander through. There is little doubt in our minds that Carolina will put up 30+ points on Saturday night, something Arizona just isn't quite capable of hanging with.

ITN rankings:
Carolina #6
Arizona #17

Other Divisional Playoff Games:

BAL @ TEN

Our line: Baltimore by 4

SD @ PIT

Our line: Pittsburgh by 16

PHI @ NYG

Our line: Philadelphia by 1

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Comments

Reverand Sancho is preaching to the choir! Panthers by 13!!!

I’m glad to see you think the Cards won’t shut down the Panther running game like they did with Turner.

Baltimore over Tennessee? That’s a bit of a surprise.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jan 9, 2009 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Eagles over Giants...I'm with it!!!

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jan 9, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baltimore v Tennessee

Yes, that one is a bit of a surprise, but we feel very good about that pick. Baltimore proved they could run the ball back in their week 5 loss to the Titans, and led for most of the game, but ultimately Flacco was unable to help secure the win when the opportunities were presented. 12 regular season games and 1 playoff win later gives the young QB a decent amount of experience and confidence to help lead his incredibly defensive dominant team to the AFC Championship game.

Remember, we have Baltimore playing Carolina in Super Bowl XLIII!

Inside the Numbers LLC

'Making sense of sports statistics'

by sancho8297 on Jan 9, 2009 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm down with it!

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jan 9, 2009 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm down with it too.

I’ll disagree with you here though. It’s a great thing to wish, but I don’t think that the running game of the Ravens can pull it off. You have to remember, even though Tennessee doesn’t seem to have a good passing offense on the surface, it has the ability to torch defenses when Chris Johnson can’t get a good run started.

That’s what happened in Week 16 when they faced Pittsburg and Week 10 when they faced the Bears. They have the ability to pass, but only when the running game is stopped. That being said, Baltimore only last their last game against Tenn. by a field goal in a 13-10 decision. They have the ability to beat them, but I have to give Tenn the edge here.

Flacco needs to come and have a good game. I’d love it if they could pull it out.

"Once again the trowsers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn

by Revshawn on Jan 9, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The rookie is bound to have a bad game

If not this week then next week against Pittsburgh (yes, they will beat the Chargers).

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jan 9, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hereby eat my words

It’s one of those things where you don’t see what’s coming.

The Titans had control of the game. They were tied against the Ravens, but ruling in all catagories such as time of possession, total offensive yards, passing yards, rushing yards. They had it all. Especially in time of possession. The defense had been out there for a long long time and they were starting to wear down. It seemed only a matter of time before the offense broke out and made this a rout.

And then it happens. The rookie RB goes down to injury. All of the sudden the game completely changes. White looked completely out of shape. Always going down on first contact, barely making those 1-2 yard gains. Collins went from throwing an almost perfect game to being rattled by their extreme blitzes.

I partly blame the coaching staff for their play calling. They never deterred to the passing game, and when they did call them it was usually on 3rd and 12, way out of the reach of Collins.

They started calling the game the way they were supposed to in the middle of the 4th quarter, but by then it was too late. The defense had most of the 3rd quarter to rest, and the momentum had already shifted. The game was close, but the Ravens won by a field goal.

If Johnson had not have fallen, I hold that the Ravens should have lost this game. Nevertheless, congratulations to the Ravens for their victory. I’m glad they pulled it off.

"Once again the trowsers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn

by Revshawn on Jan 10, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs