Panther 3rd Down Offense Still a Crap Shoot

Coming in to the season a key stat the Panther brass wanted to improve had to be 3^rd down completion percentage. Here's how the Panthers have done in that regard so far this season compared to seasons past:

The numbers in parentheses are the post season percentages.  The numbers don't lie, the key seems to be to exceed 40%. When the Panthers, or any team for that matter, perform well on 3rd down they win more games. The Panthers have struggled since 2005 to convert 3^rd downs and they have yet to see any improvement in 2008. You could make the case this is the root cause of the Panthers ‘Cardiac' moniker. Come from behind wins are great if you love suspense but in the end it puts too much pressure on your QB. Like a redneck in Vegas, the odds eventually catch up to you.

So why does the Panther offense struggle on 3^rd down? For a multitude of reasons, this makes solving the problem a complex endeavor. Penalties that create 3^rd and long are obvious (the Panthers are tied for the NFL lead in penalties). Some of the play calling comes to mind too as the Panthers seem to rarely catch their opponent off guard on 3^rd down. Throw in some errant passes and blown routes and you get less than 30% completion.

This has got to be keeping OC Jeff ‘Silent Bob' Davidson up at night (have you ever seen a quote from this guy?) He was brought in to ramp up the running game via the zone-blocking scheme, a scheme that usually requires mobile linemen, not the behemoths the Panthers employ. He is also known for running a lot of screens plays but you rarely see these Panthers call one. That would require the Big Uglies to get out and run. When it's 3^rd and long and the defense is showing blitz the Panthers 9 out of 10 times are going one of two places: either to Steve Smith or to a TE on a short hook. Oh, I forgot the draw play when its 3^rd and really long. I think the Panthers are just too predicable on 3^rd down.

I really thought the Panthers had a new weapon after the Chargers game in TE Dante Rosario. He's had two catches since that game. The Vikings ran a play on 3^rd down right before the end of the 3^rd quarter (on that 19 play drive) the Panthers should adopt for Dante Rosario. The Panthers were showing blitz after having gotten pressure on two previous 3^rd downs. From the shot gun Vikings QB Gus Frerotte back-pedaled and suckered in the Panther pass rush perfectly and then flipped the ball out to the TE for a TE Screen that went for 10 yards, first down. Perfect play called for the defense. Rather than relying on a perfect pass and a perfect catch to overcome 3^rd and long play instead created a man advantage with open field in front of him. Rosario would make some hay on that play!

Of course the best way to conquer 3^rd and long is to prevent it altogether with successful 1^st and 2^nd downs. 3^rd and shorts are always much easier and the quickest way to improve the percentage. The Falcons should prove to be a little softer up front than the three previous opponents so if the Panthers can run the ball early that will certainly help. Here's to looking for the Panthers achieving a 40% completion percentage on Sunday that leads to a solid victory over the division rival Falcons.

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Panthers Add DE Brinkley

The Panthers added DE Casper Brinkley to the practice squad, an UDFA who participated in the Panthers recent training camp.

We made a change on the practice squad. We picked up defensive end Casper Brinkley and released wide receiver Titus Ryan.

Brinkley is a local product having played with his twin brother Jasper at the University of South Carolina. Jasper, a LB, returned for his senior year (and is higher rated Pro prospect). Casper played well in the preseason, notching a memorable sack in a game (though I forget who it was against, Ha!)