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Panthers 2008 Fantasy Analysis

Outside of leagues full of Panther fans you should be able to get Panthers at good value. If you believe like I do that the Panther offense will be much improved then you will want to target the following players in the rounds suggested based on a ten team league:

 Steve Smith (ESPN Rank #27)

In past seasons Smith was a sure fire 2nd round pick but he will probably slip to the 3rd round this season. If you get him there it will be good value as I expect the return of Jake Delhomme will spark Smith’s production. I’m going to predict 1,250 yards and 10 TD’s through the air. He will add another 120 yards and a TD on the ground. Though he won’t be ranked in the top 5 of WR prior to the season he will finish that way.

Jake Delhomme (#200+)

Jake will get no respect in the preseason and fantasy drafts alike. He will still be available in most leagues in the 10th round. I would not draft him to be your starter simply because you should be able to get him as a back-up. I think he will be a huge sleeper at QB as the improved running game will open up the passing game. I’m going to predict 2,900 yards and 27 TD’s with 11 INT’s. Jake will be a good back-up who you can start depending of the match-up. Given the Panthers have a fairly easy schedule there should be opportunity for spot starts. Who knows, he can easily end up starter material if the offense starts clicking.

 DeAngelo Williams (#79)

D-Will will start the season at #1 RB and get his share of carries. The problem is that J-Stew will steal his TD’s similar to what Marion Barber does in Dallas. Given D-Will averaged almost 5 yards per carry I expect him to top 1,000 yards in a season for the first time. Resist the temptation to take D-Will early as he is no more than a 6th rounder. I’m going to predict 1,000 yards rushing and 4 TD’s. He will also add 300 yards in the air and 2 more TD’s.

Jonathan Stewart (#65)

Though ESPN has him going in the 6th round Stewart is the most likely Panther to get drafted too early. Many people will speculate on him winning a starting job out of the preseason and subsequent breakout season as the Adrian Peterson effect takes hold. I would love to see it but it would be a big risk fantasy wise. I think Stewart will start slow but rack up some short yardage TD’s as he becomes a specialist in that area. Stewart will finish strong though and end up with 800 yards and 12 TD’s. It’s hard to predict his receiving yardage but I have heard he can catch the ball out of the backfield. He could end up adding 200-300 yards in the air and another 3-4 TD’s. Certainly a nice season for a rookie but you want more from a #2 RB which is where he will be drafted in many leagues. If he’s there in the 4th round take him but I doubt he will be there.

 Musin Muhammad (#178)

It’s hard to say whether Moose will be reliable enough for spot starts. It will depend on the match-up but he will put up an occasional good game. I expect 800 yards and 4 TD’s from Moose as he becomes the #2 WR in the offense. Moose should be worth a late round pick on your team depending on how many rounds you have.

DJ Hackett (#106)

Hackett will get draft higher than Moose but I won’t equal his stats. Hackett will go for 650 yards and 3 TD’s. He will get drafted but I would take a wait and see approach. If he starts slow he will probably be out there on the waiver wire and will be worth a look as he takes time to build a rapport with his new QB.

Jeff King

TE Jeff King has little fantasy value but may be worth an occasional start based on the match-up. I can’t see going for more than 300 yards and 3 TD’s on the season but it will be hard to predict when he will get his yards.

John Kasay

I think John Kasay will benefit from the improved offense and be a top 10 kicker. I think he will hit 26 FG’s and all his point afters to top 100 points pretty easily.

Panthers D/Special Teams

The Panther D will get no respect this season given their next to last place finish in sacks. They will fair a little better this season though you can expect to them to be available late. Given the Panthers start the season against the Chargers they should go undrafted if not for the optimistic Panther fan. I expect the Panther D to be middle of the road at best fantasy-wise.

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I just had a draft this weekend.
-Smith went right before the 3rd/4th round turn (right before my pick, unfortunately).
-Delhomme is my back-up QB. I’m hoping for big things.
-Stewart went 4th round-ish… D-Will fell to 8th/9th round area.
-Muhsin, King, Kasay & the D all went undrafted.
-I took Hackett in the last round… hopefully he lives up to the (my?) lofty expectations.

The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
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by UtesFan89 on Jun 22, 2008 11:05 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So Panthers are going lower

than I even imagined. D-Will in the 8th is amazing to me, good value for sure. Moose will be late round pick to stash on your bench. You can never have enough WR’s.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jun 23, 2008 9:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

gotta disagree

Gotta disagree. In 2006, Jake threw for 2800 yards in only 13 games. In the previous three seasons, he played all 16 games and his worst output was 3200 yards and 19 TDs. I predict 3500 yards and 25 TDs. Smith and Moose will both go over 1,000 yards. Remember when T.O. caught 9 passes for 122 yards in the Superbowl. That was only 12 months after Moose had an 85 yard TD in the Superbowl. They were drafted in the same year and Moose’s skills have fallen off as much as T.O.s – not much at all. The difference, though, is the number of #2 corners trying to cover him. He’ll go for 1100 yards, and Smitty will get 1250 (like Jaxon said). D-Will is much better receiving than Stewart. He will have more receptions and yards than Stewart, as well as more TDs overall. Some may say that D-Will can’t be all that when he was Foster’s back-up. Foster had more carries because we needed a guy who could get up in there and get 2-3 yards. There weren’t any holes. D-Will’s line will look more like the Vikings line last year (when even the back-up Chester Taylor ran for 5.4 yards a carry), than our line from last year. I think Hackett and King may be bad picks all around. Hackett may finish with 550 yards and 3 TDs, but Drew Carter in Oakland as a starter may produce more than our #3. Our defense is going to be spectacular because they won’t be on the field as long. We’ll have more sacks and interceptions because teams will throw more in the 2nd half. As a side note, if you pick up Stewart, pay attention every week if he’s gong to return kicks. You might get a couple returns for TDs. I have the utmost confidence that he’s going to be an outstanding RB, but beating out D-Will is going to be much tougher than “experts” make it out to be. He doesn’t have the burst D-Will has and he has zero reps with the first team. D-Will has better timing with the O-line and Jake, has more practice and has more time learning and playing in this offense.

I know I can be overly optimistic, but every year since 1995 I’ve picked the Panthers to go all the way. This year is no different. Just to say you heard it hear first, I’m going to give you guys a heads up on who’s going to the Pro Bowl:

Jake Delhomme
Steve Smith
DeAngelo Williams
Jordan Gross
Julius Peppers
Jon Beason
Chris Harris (he’ll create more havoc since the other starting safety will be much better in coverage than last year’s safety)

by usana_gaines on Jun 22, 2008 11:23 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We balance each other out

You’re overly optimistic and I’m usually conservative in my estimates.

I agree, in hindsight I should have predicted more yardage for Jake. He should break 3k yards if he stays healthy. My thinking was an increased running game and maybe Jake hits the bench late in games when the Panthers are up by two scores or more. My original thought I should have stuck with is 3,200 yards.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on Jun 23, 2008 9:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

optimism

You know I’ve always been an optimist. I look at our record over the last two years with a healthy Jake and Smitty, and we’re 9-5. I predicted we’d go 10-6 to 12-4 last season. That was before Jake’s injury. Now look at our team and you see major roster improvements over the last two years. Last year’s team had the talent to win 10-12 games, but we came up short. Injuries took a toll on us, but there was a lack of effort and mental toughness during some games that we should’ve won also. We’ve replaced a lot of players who brought mental mistakes and lack of desire to the field. The attitude, attention to detail and work ethic mistakes are being addressed. We have new talent, and we’re ready to get it done. Just looking at our players who have been in the league three years or less (incl. this year) is impressive: Beason, Connor, McGlover, C. Johnson, Marshall, Godfrey, Kalil, Barnidge, King, Rosario, D-Will, Stewart, Moore, Robinson and Otah. We’re not only set to win this year, but we’re set to be a Superbowl contender for the next several years.

I expect us to get a Superbowl win this year. John Fox will get an extension, and he’ll lead us to at least one more in the next five years. I could see him as our coach for the next decade.

by usana_gaines on Jun 23, 2008 1:40 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

speaking of stats...what about Jarrett

I’m really curious to see how Jarrett does this year. I think he’ll get on the field as the #3 a few times because I doubt we’ll get 16 games out of all three top receivers. However, do you think he should or will get suspended for his DWI. I personally think a DWI is worse than a hit of marijuana because we know which of the two kills more people every year…just ask Leonard Little and Jared Allen. Anyway, there goes my two cents.

by usana_gaines on Jun 24, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

waitaminute...

allen never killed anyone in his DUIs…that we know of.

Allen’s suspension came after his 3rd DUI in 4 years- I can only believe that Jarret’s sentence will be less severe, seeing as it is his first.

Also, looking back at recent history with the Panthers, the highest receiving totals by the WR3 was Ricky Proehl in 2004 with 497 yards. I see little chance Hackett (or Jarrett, for that matter) puts up more than 500 yards.

We just aren't a team that gets the 3rd WR the ball that often- which I don't have a problem with.  I understand that that we've had injuries to QBs, WRs, and basically every position that might impact receiving stats, but I think that is a weak excuse for Jake's tunnel-vision or the passing formations/ philosophy we use.

by the bomb dot com on Jun 24, 2008 6:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good points

I despise stupid mistakes like drinking and driving. Allen never killed anyone, you’re right, but I think the league should take a tougher stance on it. As for Allen, he did close down his bar and swear off drinking altogether. We’ll see if it’s true. I’m also hoping Marshawn Lynch gets a suspension for a hit and run. I don’t care who’s a star and who isn’t. We fans pay a lot of money to these guys on a regular basis, and they are professionals. Asking them to not hit people and flee the scene (a la Lance Briggs) isn’t too much, really.

As for the #3 receiver, it’s hard to tell. Here are the stats from last year’s 2-4 receivers.

Jeff King 46 406 8.8 29 2
Drew Carter 38 517 13.6 49 4
Keary Colbert 32 332 10.4 43 0

My optimisitc hopes are that Hackett can outperform this group with a solid QB for all 16 games. The key is that these are all decent numbers for a #3, but we had no #2. Of these 116 catches from last year, I expect Moose to get 70 of them. So the #3 has to be really good to get to 500 yards. You’re right about that.

Either way, if Smith has to have four games where he catches 12 passes, I’m fine with that, too, as long as we win.

by usana_gaines on Jun 24, 2008 11:59 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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