Panthers Becoming Trendy Playoff Pick

by Jaxon on May 13, 2008 1:15 PM EDT Comment 11 comments

ESPN’s John Clayton is yet another guru picking the Panthers to return to the playoffs in 2008. This is sure to annoy a lot of Panthers fans given the last time the Panthers were predicted to make playoff noise. In 2006 the Panthers flopped to 8-8 after being picked by most everyone to win the Super Bowl. No one wants the ‘honor’ of being picked in the preseason to win anymore.

Yet it seems many of the ESPN guru’s are seeing what us Panther fans have been getting excited about since the off-season started.

The Panthers go from a .523 strength of schedule in 2007 to a .465 in '08. Normally, a .020 change in strength of schedule projects to a win if it's easier or a loss if it's tougher. Using that concept, the Panthers have a chance to improve by 2.9 games. They were 7-9 last season.

Jake Delhomme is back from Tommy John surgery. If he can stay healthy for 16 games, the Panthers have a great chance to make a playoff run. Before elbow problems ended his season in September, the Panthers were averaging 25 points a game, and Delhomme's quarterback rating was above 100. Without him, the Panthers finished with a dismal 16.7-point scoring average.

For personnel, the Panthers went back to John Fox's philosophy of getting big and nasty on the line, adding five 322-pound-plus blockers and running back Jonathan Stewart, a first-round pick. On paper, the Panthers have a great chance to win 10 games this season -- as long as Delhomme stays healthy.

So let’s take a look at our list of Panther needs:

Cut the dead wood from the roster – check
Bring in free agent veterans for all positions of need – check

Beef up the offensive line – double check
Add playmakers on offense – check
Get Jake’s elbow healthy – check
Improve the pass rush – hmmmm…the jury is still out on that one

So alrighty then, I can see why some people are starting to see the Panthers as a team on the rise. If the Panthers can figure out how to get a pass rush going this fall then they should be very capable of realizing that three win improvement if not more. My money is on more but I’ll take 10 wins regardless.

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Pass rush

The one thing you say the jury is still out on is the pass rush. I disagree with that. We have improved our pass rush. By upgrading the secondary, we should get more “coverage” sacks. Last season, there were times when we couldn’t get a sack because the other team didn’t have to throw. They were winning by double digits in the 4th quarter. We’ll have the lead in the 4th, and as the other teams throw to make a comeback, we’ll have more opportunities to get sacks. With a greater number of kick-offs going for touchbacks instead of being returned to the 40, teams will have to throw a couple more times just to get downfield than they had to last year. All those factors give us more opportunities to get sacks, and I think we’ll take advantage. Also, with a better LB corps and secondary, we can take more chances blitzing, and I hope we do just that. A coupel CB blitzes or Thomas Davis blitzes should lead to more sacks as well.

The question I think Jaxon is addressing, however, is in the personnel department. With all those things I mentioned, is anyone actually going to step up and get the sacks? I think the answer is yes, but I also predicted Peppers would get 20 sacks last year and we saw how that turned out.

by usana_gaines on May 13, 2008 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re: Pass rush

I agree, I’m also optimistic about the pass rush. You make a great point about the new kickoff specialist, that’ll help the special teams a ton. They’re trying new things along the D-line, and I’m getting good feelings about it. There’s a new article about it by Steve Reed over at Carolina Growl, and I get the sense that we should get better push up the middle now, possibly at the expense of rush defense along the line (Go LBs!). And I also really want to see Thomas Davis take that Mark Fields role, blitzing and just generally creating mayhem.

by r3 on May 13, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Predictions

It’s popular to decry national folks talking up the team, but it really doesn’t matter too much. Sure, the national folks really don’t seem to understand how the team works, nor its true strengths and weaknesses.* But let’s not forget that, two years running, Dr. Z/S.I. predicted that Carolina would make it to (and win) the Super Bowl. One of those years, we lost Steve Smith and every RB on the roster to injury and still went 8-8. The other year, we went to the NFC Championship game.

Keep in mind, we haven’t had (and won’t have) a 4-12 season under Foxy. The worst we could POSSIBLY have was last year. Four QBs, each starting at least three games? Check. An inability to pressure the opposing QB? Check. Inconsistent, fumble-happy starting RB? Check. Inconsistent, drop-happy string of WRs? Check. Inability to get off the field on 3rd down? Check. And we STILL went 7-9. You explain to me how we’re going to be worse next year, because I don’t see it.

I gotta say, I’ve got the same sense of strength that I had before the 2003 season. We’ve got playmakers on both sides of the ball, we’ve got power and drive-blockers on offense, speed and aggression on defense, and quality depth at literally every position. That’s what we had going into 2003. I look at the NFC, and I see some good teams (Dallas, New Orleans), but I don’t see anyone beating us in the playoffs.

Let ‘em talk us up, let ‘em ignore us. It won’t stop the beat-down that we’re about to put on this league.

*- National folks talking about the team will often say funny things. I heard someone say, during the draft, that “Delhomme’s getting older, and Matt Moore doesn’t seem to be the answer, so they need a quarterback.” Really? Really?!? Delhomme is 33. He’s one year older than Peyton Manning. He’s two years older than Tom Brady. And you really were able to judge that Moore, the undrafted rookie free agent, isn’t the answer based on his three starts at the end of the season, when he went 2-1 with a demoralized team that had nothing to play for? You figured that out based on… what, exactly? Yeah… just ignore the idiots.

by r3 on May 13, 2008 5:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Boobies (1st time poster)

I disagree with a few things:

1) Manning is a once in a generation (if not all-time) talent- he could play until he’s 45 (if he had the drive to), and his O-line has thus far made that a possibility considering his injury history (lack thereof)

2) Moore is great for what he is- an undrafted QB, but let’s not go crazy. Time will tell if he can be a long-term starter in the NFL. Would I want him for starter money? Probably not. But I’ll take a bargain that has plenty of potential any day of the week.

3) I’m not sold on the D-Line. I want to believe Peppers isn’t infected with superAIDS or whatever rumor has made the internet rounds, but I’ll believe it when I see it. As A UGA football fan, I’m excited that Charles Johnson could conceivably crack the starting lineup, but I understand the learning curve is a steep one.

The rest:

I am truly excited about J-Stew, and the prospect of a (dare I say it?) thunder-and-lightning running game. I want the Panthers to grind out the clock, wear down opponents’ D, and punish their offenses’ mistakes- and I think this scenario is very viable.

I wish we had a offense that utilized the TE more.

I think LB is going to be an asset this year in terms of depth.

I think that none of the other teams in the NFC-S did much to get better, and the fact that the Falcons are moving away from Norwood I find hilarious.

I’m ready to call Jarrett a bust. He seems like an asshole in general, but I also think he doesn’t care much for the game of football- he just wanted that contract. Good for him, but to think how many other guys busting their asses to just make the roster (while his draft status seems to be the only thing keeping him on it).

Anyway, great blog- I had been looking for one for a while, and I lived in NYC during last season, so I needed another way of keeping in the loop.

Oh, and I love pictures, so this blast from the past should bring back a few memories…

by the bomb dot com on May 13, 2008 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah! Don't stop, get it get it!

Umm.. is that Brentson Buckner doing the cabbage patch at the NFL Network studios? Please tell me it is. Just that thought makes me smile.

I do have a real question for ya, though. Is it your contention that we should have drafted a quarterback? Because that’s all I was getting at, there. Delhomme’s not “getting older”, he’s right in the prime of his playing days. Yes, he nearly had his arm ripped off last year, but it got better, and we’ve got better people in front of him now. But I’m with you on Moore, we have no idea what we have, but it still doesn’t seem like we’ve got a need at QB, either starter or backup.

And we’ll know better about whether Jarrett’s a bust once we get to camp this year. If he’s learned how to run routes, read the playbook, and/or just damn block somebody, then I think he’s got a shot.

And speaking of Peppers and his diseaseyness, did anyone else have the same “hmmmm” reaction when Jay Cutler announced that he’d lost a lot of weight and strength from diabetes at the end of last year? I mean, if Pep did have diabetes, it’s not the sort of thing he’d probably make public, since he’s a pretty private guy. But that definitely crossed my mind.

Anyway, it’s nice to have you here, bomber. Where you livin’ now, if you’re not in NYC anymore?

by r3 on May 13, 2008 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Buckner's Booty Dance

I’m back in Greensboro, NC, so hopefully, I won’t have to rely on SopCast to see my homies play this year.

I do kinda wish we had taken a look at, say, Booty late in day 2, and last year I wanted to get Zabranski late (or undrafted) as well- but no bigs; as Moore (in all honesty/probability) has already seen more action and proven more than either of those guys will in their careers.

Oh, and for those not in the know, that is Buckner from an NFLn commercial when the network was still pretty new, and the ad campaign was a “what if” of sorts for programming- this was a show dedicated to the “Big Man Dance Competition,” where Buckner was hands down the best (that pic is from a Patriots website if you think I’m being a homer).

by the bomb dot com on May 13, 2008 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice Pic Bomb

That one is hilarious and I had forgotten about it. Welcome to the blog, you are the Bomb!

My only question mark as I stated in the post is the pass rush. I think we will have a very good run defense but the pass rush I think will come down to your homeboy Charles Johnson.

I love Matt Moore as a back-up and in a couple years maybe a starter, but I’m 100% wanting Jake to stay healthy all season so we don’t need to worry about the back-up QB except in mop-up situations. Here’s to hoping we have quite a few of them.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on May 14, 2008 8:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good posts

I think the bomba is on the money. I think Moore can be as good as Romo, and better than Delhomme ever was, if he gets 3-4 years to learn one offense behind a good QB and coach the way Romo did. He had four years with Tuna and Bledsoe. However, if I’m wrong, I think there are going to be better QBs in the years ahead. I just wasn’t sold on any of the QBs coming out except maybe using a late round pick on Josh Johnson or Dennis Dixon. I think Josh Johnson will be starting for TB within two years.

As for Jarrett, yeah, he’s a bust. The Patriots drafted Chad Jackson in the 2nd round not too long ago. When they brought in enough guys to fill roster spots 1-3, and the return man is a WR, too, then the 2nd rounder wasn’t even active for most games. Don’t be surprised if this is Jarrett’s last season in Carolina, and I’ll be surprised if he gets 25 catches. But we’re still going to be running things. Our top options are Steve Smith, Moose, Hackett, D-Will, Stewart and whatever TE steps up, but all three are good. So who needs Jarrett anyway?

As for the KO specialist, I just wanna give props to Jaxon for mentioning it first last season and detailing its significance for our success, and how the lack of a KO specialist affected us in the Supoerbowl.

by usana_gaines on May 14, 2008 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ryns will stick

I think its almost 100% that we will use two roster spots for the kicker position this year. Fox is not about to let go of John Kasay because he has hit many many clutch kicks but there’s no denying he can’t get it done on KO’s.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on May 14, 2008 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Too much love

I am a little worried about the Panthers getting too much love. In the last week I have read rave reviews about the Panthers… NFC South leaders, playoff contenders, benefiting from a weak schedule, toughest o-line, Stewart rookie of the year, Hackett Smith And Moose being a top receiving corp, and Matt Moore being one of the best fantasy sleepers. Sounds great! for now. But the Panthers have had their best seasons flying under the radar, and have often been a bust when they are picked to win. I hope its different this time around.

Jack Sutherland on behalf of Southtunnel
Southtunnel Web Development
http://www.southtunnel.com

by Jaxonweb on May 14, 2008 8:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good Point but...

I don’t think this team is going to get full of themselves after two straight disappointing seasons. The vets aren’t going to let that happen. I expect the Panthers to have a chip on their shoulder. You can bet Jake will.

I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com

by Jaxon on May 14, 2008 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs