Should the Panthers Draft QB Matt Ryan?

There are a couple of notable exceptions, but most quarterbacks drafted, first round or not, are complete wastes of the draft pick. I think, if you're completely convinced that the guy is going to be a world-beater, you take him. But not if you've got questions about even a single part of his game. And I've got questions about Matt Ryan's game.

I don't know, the failure rate of quaterbacks is just so much higher than that of other positions, I think you put that draft choice into a more secure position.

You know I love some research, so here's some of what I see:

2000, 12 QBs drafted, 3 had game... or rather, have not completely washed-out: Chad Pennington (1st), Mark Bulger (6th), Tom Brady (6th)
2001, 11 QBs drafted, 2 had game: Michael Vick (1st), Drew Brees (2nd)
2002, 15 QBs drafted, 1 had game: David Garrard (4th).
2003, 13 QBs drafted, 1 had game: Carson Palmer (1st).
2004, 17 QBs drafted, only the big 3 have gotten it done: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethisberger.

I'd say it's too soon to pass judgement on more recent draft classes. But man, that 2002 class (Carr, Harrington, Randy Fasani) was pretty pathetic. I had to be generous to classify Garrard as a success after only one good year.

If you're going to limit it to first-rounders, then the rate goes from an abysmal 85% (58 of 68) failure rate down to 54% (7 of 13) failure.

That led me to compare QB to the Pro Bowl rate of all first-round picks during that same time. I know, Pro Bowl versus 'acknowledged failure' is really apples and oranges, as 'success' and 'failure' are the outer edges of a continuum, but let's see where it leads us.

So, 59 of the 158 total first round picks from 00-04 made the Pro Bowl, making for a 37% success rate. Focusing on the top picks, 37 of the 75 top-15 picks made the Pro Bowl, basically a 50% success rate.

Hmm.

The end result, as much as I like to toss around numbers and stats, to quantify that which can be quantified, is predictable enough: it comes down to the player. Success rates for quarterbacks in the first round are roundabout the same as everyone else (which I didn't expect), so it comes to looking at the player.

I did see a couple of Matt Ryan games this past year and I was impressed by his abilities, but I question his decision-making ability and his ability to out-think pro defenders. But ultimately, I think we've got to draft at another position.