TB @ CAR - Change and chaos brewing

Hello CSRs,

If you are a fan of any team that plays in the NFC South, this has probably been one of the most exciting years of football to watch in a long time. Every game between division opponents has had grand implications for the division title and playoff picture. And as big as many of the games have been up to this point the upcoming second meeting between Carolina and Tampa Bay casts a large shadow over the games that have preceded it.
However, the thing is that many of the games have been lopsided in favor of the home team, and many of you have heard the stat that in NFC South divisional games the home team is a perfect 8-0 with an average margin of victory of over two touchdowns. Outside of the two New Orleans/Tampa Bay match-ups no game has been decided by fewer than 10 points. So the question is will the trend continue? Absolutely not. If you think the standings are already crazy close, this weekend's results will set the stage for there being a three way tie at 10-4 for the division lead after the completion of week 15.

TB @ CAR

Our line: Tampa Bay by 7

Word on the street is that this Monday night game will be Carolina's coming out party. Underrated and forgotten by much of the media throughout the year, Carolina is undefeated at home and looking to revenge their 24 point loss in their trip to Tampa, and do it in their first really big nationalized TV game of the year. Our ranking system has been a Panthers fan all year long and even has had them as the most likely NFC team to reach the Super Bowl. In recent weeks both of our rankings Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points (strength of schedule) have started to lean away from the Panthers and towards the Buccaneers as the best team in the South. The biggest surprise has been that 9-3 Carolina still remains as an Upset Candidate and their recent play has opened themselves up to being defeated at home by opponents like Tampa Bay, who certainly has the means to pull off the win. While we are expecting a high scoring game, we do believe that the Tampa Bay defense will be the difference maker in this game. Look for Gruden to have his defense take away the big play from the Carolina offense and rely on his defense to use sound tackling and turnovers to limit Carolina from moving the ball on the ground or with short passes underneath. Expect there to be a couple of dry spells in the game for the Carolina offense where they have back to back 3 and out sequences that will put more pressure on the defense they are likely to be able to handle, giving the Tampa Bay offense the little bit of advantage it needs to find the end zone and emerge with a huge win and a temporary division lead in the NFC South.

ITN rankings:

- Tampa Bay # 5

- Carolina #8